Matanho pamberi peIMF kurudziro

On 13 Kurume 2022 chirevo cheIMF mission yaive pzvakaburitswa zvichitevera kutaurirana kwakaitwa kubva Kurume 31 kusvika Kubvumbi 13 muTashkent. Sekureva kwaro, Uzbekistan yakabudirira kukunda nguva yedenda nekuda kwematanho akasimba akatorwa kudzikamisa mhedzisiro yemagariro nehupfumi uye nekudaro kukurumidza kwehupfumi hwekukura kwakawedzera kusvika pa7.4% muna 2021 ukuwo inflation yakadzikira kusvika gumi%. Nekudaro, sezvakataurwa nenyanzvi dzeIMF, "zvirango zvakatemerwa Russia zvakaunza kusagadzikana kutsva uye zvinokanganisa tarisiro yehupfumi hweUzbek" , anonyora Dr. Obid Khakimov, CERR Director

Izvo zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti zvese zvinogona kuitika mukati nenjodzi dzehupfumi hweUzbek dzinogara dzichitariswa nehurumende. Nepo kuwedzera kwemamiriro ezvinhu muUkraine kwakaitika muna Kukadzi 26, kuri mukutanga kwaKurume apo Komisheni yakakosha yekutonga kwemamiriro ekunze yakaumbwa muUzbekistan uyezve chikamu chekuraira chenyika pasi pehusachigaro hweMutungamiriri weMutungamiriri uye matunhu ekuraira zvikamu pasi pe. kutariswa kwekhokims. Mabhanga eCommerce akatanga kubhadharisa muRubles. Kudzikamisa zvinhu zvekunze, mutero wemumba webasa renjanji wakashandiswa uye makambani ekunze akatanga kutengesa zvigadzirwa zvekudya pastock exchange zvichidzikamisa kukura kwemitengo.

Musangano unotevera wakafanana pamusoro pezvingangoitika zvenjodzi dzakaitwa muna Kubvumbi 15, 2022 wakazvipirawo kuona kugadzikana kwezvigadzirwa zvekudya uye kugadzira mamiriro akanaka ekuita bhizinesi. 

Iyo IMF tarisiro uye njodzi

Nyanzvi dzeIMF dzinotarisira kudzikira kwekukura kwehupfumi hweUzbek muna 2022 kusvika pa3-4% mukuenzanisa ne6% yakafanotaurwa kare. Zvinotarisirwa neIMF panyaya iyi zvinoenderana nezvimwe zvinotarisirwa. World Bank inofanotaura kuderera kwekukura kweGDP muUzbekistan muna 2022 kusvika 3.6%, EBRD - kusvika 4% uye maererano neCentre for Economic Research and Reforms estimation - kusvika 3.6%. Nekudaro, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti kwemwedzi mitatu yekutanga ye2022 hupfumi hweUzbek hwakaratidza kusimba kwakanyanya kumatambudziko ekunze. Maererano neHurumende nhamba yehofisi yeUzbekistan GDP yeJanuary-March nguva yakawedzera ne5.8% mukuenzanisa ne 2.6% kukura kwekota yekutanga ye 2021. Asi zvisinei, kukanganisa kwakashata kwengozi dzekunze hakufaniri kuderedzwa gore rose.  

IMF mishoni inocherekedzawo kuti hupfumi hweUzbek hunogona kukanganiswa nekudzikira kwehupfumi hwevadyidzani vakakosha. Hazvisati zviri pachena kuti mamiriro ezvinhu anogona kuwedzera sei mukati megore, asi mu1^st kota mamiriro ehupfumi munyika - vatengesi vakuru veUzbekistan vanoramba vakagadzikana zvachose. MuKyrgyzstan hupfumi hwakakura ne4.4% mukuenzanisa nekuderera ne9% panguva imwe chete muna 2021. MuKazakhstan zvakare kukura kwehupfumi ne 4.4% mukuenzanisa nekuderera ne 1.4% panguva imwe chete muna 2021. GDP yeChina mu iyo 1^st kota yakakura ne4.8% nekukwira ku4^th chikamu ne1.3%. Kana iri hupfumi hweRussia hapana data repamutemo asi maererano neVEB.RF iyo GDP yeRussia yaNdira-Kukadzi yaive 3.6%. Panguva imwecheteyo mukana wekuwedzera kwezviratidzo zvehupfumi munyika dzekutengeserana munyika mumwedzi inotevera zvinogoneka.     

Nyanzvi dzeIMF dzinofanotaura kuwedzera kwekushomeka kwekushanda kweakaundi yazvino muUzbekistan kusvika 9.5% yeGDP, panguva imwecheteyo kudzikira kwevhoriyamu yekuendesa mari, mukufunga kwavo, ichabhadharwa zvishoma nekudzikira kwezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kuwedzera mari kubva kune zvigadzirwa zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Zvichakadaro mhedzisiro ye1^st kota inoratidza zvakajeka kuti defisiti inogona kuderera zvakanyanya. Kutengeswa kwekutengeserana kune dzimwe nyika mukuenzanisa nenguva imwechete gore rapera yakawedzera mu 1.7 nguva uye yakasvika ku7.5 mabhiriyoni emadhora. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakawedzera mu 2.4 nguva kusvika pamadhora mabhiriyoni 5.8, kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kunze kwegoridhe kwakakura ne16%, panguva imwechete kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvisiri zvekudya kunze kwakaderera ne22% uye kunze kwenyika mu1.^st chikamu chakakura kusvika pa45% kusvika pamadhora 7.4 bhiriyoni.

IMF nyanzvi dzinofanotaurawo kuwedzera kwegore negore muUzbekistan pa12% nekuda kwezvipikisi mumitengo yepasi rose yezvokudya nemafuta muna 2022. Maererano ne "Fitch", inflation muna 2022 ichava 12.7%. Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti inflation yeIMF inoenderana zvizere nefungidziro yeCentral Bank yeUzbekistan inotarisira kukura kweinflation pa12% kusiyana neyakarongwa kare 9%. Kana ari maresults ari mu1^st kota 2022, inflation yakawedzera zvishoma nekuda kwekuvhunduka kwekunze. Indekisi yemutengo wevatengi yakakwira ne2.9% kana ichienzaniswa naZvita gore rapfuura (mu1^st kota 2021 - 2.5%). Nekuwedzera kwekukura kwemitengo yezvinhu, mitengo yemasevhisi yakaratidza kuderera kwekukura kusvika 1.5% (muna Ndira-Kurume yaive 2.7%).

Njodzi dzemari

Nyanzvi dzeIMF mukutaura kwavo dzakayambira kuti mutemo wezvemari wakatarisana nebasa rakaoma rekuona kuenzanisa pakati pekunetseka nekukwira kwemitengo uye kuchengetedza hupfumi hwenyika uye kudzivirira kukwira kwemitengo kwakakurudzirwa neIMF kuti igadzirire kuomeswa kwemitemo yemari.

Izvo zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti kuwedzera kweCentral Bank kweyekutanga chiyero kubva pa14% kusvika 17% pakati paKurume 2022, yakabvumidzwa kudzikamisa musika wekunze wekunze uye chiyero uye kudzivirira kubuda kwemari kubva mumadhipoziti mumari yenyika uye kudzikamisa kudiwa uye kupa mumahofisi ekuchinjana (yakanaka chiyero chaApril yakasvika kumadhora mazana matatu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu). Zvakadaro, Bhanga guru renyika riri kushanda panyaya yekushandisa ongororo yekukwira kwemitengo uye mamwe matanho emari.

Bato reIMF rakaonawo mukutaura kwavo kuti zvikwereti zvechikwereti zvinoramba zvichiratidza kukwira kwakanyanya uye njodzi yemari yekunze. Panguva imwecheteyo njodzi huru dzinonyanya kukonzerwa nemakambani ehurumende. Nekuda kweizvozvo zvinokurudzirwa kuramba uchitarisisa mamiriro emari emabhanga.

Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti panguva yemusangano wevhidhiyo munaKurume 31, 2022, Central Bank yakanga yatorairwa kuti iite yekutarisa kwemari uye kugadzikana kwebhangi system iyo inogara ichiitwa uye zvichienderana nekuti kubva pakutanga kwegore rino chikamu chedambudziko. zvikwereti muhupfumi zvakadzikira kubva pa5.3% kusvika 4.9% (kusvika mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi mana nematatu emari). Pamusoro pezvo, Central Bank inoita nguva dzose kushushikana-kuyedza mamiriro emari emabhangi ekutengesa ayo anowanzo ratidza kugadzikana kwechikamu ichi.

Kutsigira kukura kwehupfumi

Chirevo cheIMF chinosimbisa kuti "kugadzira mamiriro ekukura kwakasimba zvichienderana nebazi rakazvimirira uye nehuwandu hwemabasa - kwakakosha mukutora vashandi vari kukurumidza kukurumidza uye kuwanda kwevashandi vanodzoka." Matanho anoshanda munzira iyi akatopihwa nesarudzo dzakatorwa kumusangano wevhidhiyo munaKurume 31 naKubvumbi 15, 2022.

Mabhangi achapa vatengesi, vatengesi kunze kwenyika pakutanga, vagadziri vezvekudya uye zvinhu zvevatengi, nekuwedzera 10 matiriyoni emari ye "inotenderera" zvikwereti zvekutenga zvigadzirwa uye mari yekushandisa. Iwo mavhoriyamu uye mitengo yakasarudzika pazvikwereti pasi pezvirongwa zvehurumende zvekurima michero nemiriwo (2 trillion sums muna 2022), bhizinesi remhuri (10 trillion sums), mortgage (13 trillion sums) uye dzidzo (1 trillion sums) inochengetwa. Mari inosvika mazana matatu emamiriyoni emadhora yakagoverwa kubatsira mabhizimisi madiki nepakati mumatunhu. Mari idzi dzichaiswa mumari yenyika pamwero we300% kwenguva yemakore manomwe mumabhanga. Panguva imwecheteyo, chiyero chechikwereti chinopiwa kune vatengesi hachipfuuri 10%.

Faindi uye zvimwe zvirango maererano nemaitiro matsva ekutonga mutero hazvizoshandiswe kusvika pakupera kwegore. Iyo nguva yekushandiswa kwemaitiro ecustomers ezvigadzirwa, zvishandiso, zvigadziriso zvinounzwa kunze kune zvaunoda zvichawedzerwa kubva kumwedzi mitanhatu iripo kusvika gore rimwe.

Zvakare, sekureva kweMuraudzo wePresident musi waKubvumbi 6, 2022 "Pamamwe matanho ekutsigira vatori vechikamu mumabasa ekutengeserana kunze kwenyika", kusvika Kubvumbi 1, 2023 mabhizinesi emuno anotumira kunze-yakawedzera zvinhu-yakawedzerwa zvinhu achawana rubatsiro rwekubhadhara mari yekufambisa kune kunze kwenyika. kune pedyo kunze kwenyika kusvika ku50% yemitengo yekufambisa, uye kunyika dzeEU - kusvika ku70%.

Kuenderera mberi kweprivatization

"Maererano nefungidziro yeIMF, basa renyika muhupfumi hweUzbekistan rinofanirwa kudzikiswa zvakanyanya, kunyangwe kubiridzira kuchanyanya kuomarara mumamiriro ezvinhu ekusagadzikana, asi masangano ari pamutemo anoramba achitengesa zvinhu kuburikidza nemagetsi akavhurika uye akajeka, kusanganisira mabhizinesi emagetsi, endege uye maindasitiri ezvekufonera ”, - iyo IMF nyanzvi dzinocherekedza.

Musi waKubvumbi 8, 2022, Chirevo cheMutungamiriri "Pane shanduko dzinotevera dzekugadzira mamiriro ekusimudzira hupfumi hwakasimba nekuvandudza nharaunda yebhizinesi nekusimudzira indasitiri yakazvimirira" yakasainwa. Inogadzira zvimwe zvinoyevedza mamiriro ekutorwa kwezvinhu zvehurumende - migove yehurumende, zvido zvevaridzi, zvinhu zvekutengesa kukurumidza kuita privatization.

Imwe yeakanyanya kukosha mapoinzi eChirevo ndechekuti inopa privatization yezvikamu zvehurumende zvemakambani makuru ehurumende, kusanganisira zvisikwa zvemonopolists. Semuyenzaniso, kuti titange basa rekuita privatization yechikamu chehurumende cheinenge 49% yezvikamu zveUzbekneftegaz JSC, pamwe ne51% kana kupfuura yeThermal Power Plants JSC pakupera kwa2022, kusanganisira nekuiswa kwavo pachena. , bhangi rine ruzivo rwekudyara mari rinofanira kukokwa naMay 1, 2022. Mhinduro dzakafanana dzinopihwa kune mamwe makambani akakosha ehurumende muhupfumi hwenyika.

mhedziso

Kuongorora fungidziro yeIMF uye kurudziro maererano nematanho akatorwa kudzivirira mhedzisiro yekuwedzera kusagadzikana kwehupfumi hwenyika mumamiriro ezvinhu aripo, hazvigoneke kuti tisvike pamhedziso isina kujeka pamusoro pekushanda uye kuenderana nenguva kwezvisarudzo zvakatorwa, mazhinji. ayo akatorwa kunyangwe isati yaburitswa chirevo chekupedzisira cheIMF mishoni.

Zvinofanira kutaurwa kuti kurongeka uye kukosha kwezvisarudzo zvakatorwa zvakasimbiswa zvakare muchirevo chemishoni: "Vakuru vehurumende vakaita sarudzo yakanaka yekutarisisa munguva pfupi iri kutevera kudzikamisa mhedzisiro yehondo muUkraine." Chirevo ichi chinocherekedzawo kuti nekuda kweizvozvo "masangano ehupfumi, sezviri pachena, akakwanisa kuchinjika nekukurumidza, achiita mabasa epasi rese kuburikidza nematanho asina kubvumidzwa."

Nyanzvi dzeIMF dzakatendawo zvikuru kuzvipira kwehurumende yeUzbekistan mukugadzirisa kuri kuitika, vachisimbisa kuti kukurumidza kwekuvandudzwa kwezvimiro mumakore anotevera kuchave kwakakosha mukudzoka kwekukura kwehupfumi kune yepakati-term maitiro e5-6. % pagore. Uye izvi zvichaita kuti zvikwanisike kuzadzisa chinangwa chakagadzwa - kushandura Uzbekistan kuva nyika ine mari yepamusoro-yepakati ne2030, apo mari yemunhu mumwe nomumwe ichapfuura yakaenzana ne4,000 uye hurombo huri nehafu, iyo yakasimbiswa mukuguma kwe chirevo.

Dr.Obid Khakimov, CERR Director

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