Mitero yaTrump ichangotanga here? Nei Europe ichida zano renguva refu

Mutungamiri weUnited States, VaDonald Trump, vakatsvaira mitero inopfuura imwe gakava rekutengeserana, vanoratidza shanduko yakakosha muhukama hwehupfumi hwenyika iyo Europe isingachakwanise kufuratira. Mitemo yekudzivirira yave kuve chinhu chinodzokororwa chekutengeserana kwenyika dzese, uye mitero iyi ingori imwe muenzaniso wekusagadzikana uko mabhizinesi nemaindasitiri acharamba achitarisana nawo. Dambudziko riripo riri pachena: Europe inofanira kupindura sei? Asi mubvunzo unonyanya kukosha ndewekuti: tinoona sei kuti hupfumi hweEurope hwakasimba zvakakwana kuti humirire kuvhiringidzika uku, kwete nhasi chete, asi munguva refu, anonyora Angelica Donati, mutungamiri weANCE Giovani uye maneja director weDonati SpA.

Nguva inotsanangura yekutengeserana kweEurope

Hukama hwekutengeserana hwetransatlantic pakati peEU neUS ndeimwe yehukama hwakakosha uye hwakadzama hwekutengeserana pasi rose, ne € 1.6 trillion mukutengeserana inoyerera muna 2023. Mumakore gumi apfuura, EU inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuUS yakawedzera 44%, kusimbisa America semusika wakakosha wemabhizinesi eEurope. Zvakadaro, nhoroondo yakaratidza kuti kudyidzana uku hakuite kuti Europe isadzivirirwe pakuchinja kwezvematongerwo enyika uye mitemo yekudzivirira muWashington.

Mitero yaTrump ingori muenzaniso mumwe wekuti kusavimbika kwegeopolitical kunogona kukanganisa sei hukama hwekutengeserana hwakasimba. Vanotyisidzira kuwedzera mitengo, kuderedza kukwikwidza, uye kumanikidza mabhizinesi kuti afunge zvakare macheni avo epasi rose. European Commission inofungidzira izvozvo € 28 bhiriyoni mune zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvichakanganiswa, asi zvinorehwa zvakafara zvinopfuura nhamba dzekutengeserana. Izvi ndezvekuti Europe inomira sei munyika iri kuramba isina chokwadi.

Iko kukanganisa kwekare kuItaly neEurope

KuItaly, iyo yakatumira kunze € 67 mabhiriyoni kukosha kwezvinhu kuUS muna 2023, njodzi dzakanyanya kukwirira. Nyika yacho mhando dzemhando yepamusoro uye fashoni iyo inovimba zvakanyanya nezvinodiwa zveAmerica, ichasangana nesarudzo dzakaoma: kutora mitengo iri kukwira, kuipfuudza kune vatengi, kana kufunga zvakare cheni dzekugovera. Zvichakadaro, chikamu chewaini nemidzimu yeItaly, mutungamiri mune zvekunze zveUS, anogona kurasikirwa nechikamu chakakura chemusika wayo kana mutero ukaita kuti zvigadzirwa zveItaly zvisanyanya kukwikwidza.

Asi, mhedzisiro inogona kuitika inoenda kure kupfuura chero nyika imwe chete. EU yagara iri mutengesi wepamusoro-soro wezvigadzirwa zvemaindasitiri kuUS uye mitengo iyi inoratidza kusawirirana kwakadzama muhukama hwekutengeserana hwetransatlantic.

Chikamu chemotokari chinotarisirwa kunge chiri pakati pezvakaoma zvakanyanya. IUS inoramba iri musika wakakosha, uchiverengera 20% yezvese zveEU mota dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, nevagadziri vekuEurope vachitumira zviuru makumi mashanu neshanu emadhora emotokari uye zvikamu kuUS muna 56. Misika yakatoita: zvichitevera chiziviso chemitero, masheya eBMW akadonha. 2.6%, Porsche by 2.4%, uye Ferrari by 4.9%. Nepo mafemu ane maNorth America ekugadzira hubs, akadai seVolkswagen, BMW, neMercedes-Benz, anogona kudzivirira kumwe kukanganiswa, vagadziri vadiki vanovimba zvakanyanya nekutengesa kunze kwenyika vanotarisana nekusagadzikana kwakanyanya.

Indasitiri yesimbi, iyo yatova pasi pekunetseka, inotarisana nedzvinyiriro yakafanana. IUS ndiyo yechipiri pamusika mukuru wesimbi kunze kweEU, inoverengera 16% yezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Ne 3.7 miriyoni metric tonne parizvino vari panjodzi, vagadziri vekuEurope vari panjodzi yekuvharirwa kunze kwemusika wakakosha, vachimanikidza kuwanda kwekudzokera kuEurope. Iyi glut yekugovera inotyisidzira kudzikisira mitengo pasi, ichiwedzera makwikwi muindasitiri yatove kunetsekana nemitengo yakakwira yemagetsi, kudzikiswa kwekugadzira, uye kurasikirwa nemabasa.

Asi, sezvo Europe ichinetsekana nematambudziko aya, mhedzisiro yekudzivirira yave kutanga kukwira pahupfumi hweUS pachayo.

Mhedzisiro isingatarisirwe kuhupfumi hweUS

Iyi mitero inogona kugadzirwa kuchengetedza maindasitiri eAmerica, asi mari yavo yehupfumi yave kutokwira.

Chikamu chekuvaka cheUS, chinovimba nealuminium inotengeswa kunze kwenyika anenge 50% yekupa kwayo, yaona mitengo ichikwira, neMidwest aluminium premium ichirova makore maviri akakwira. Nyangwe musimbi, kupi zvinenge 75% zvekudiwa kweUS zvinozadzikiswa mudzimba, mutero wakasundidzira mitengo yesimbi inopisa muMidwest ne. 12% mumavhiki maviri apfuura uye akasimuka 20% zvachose kubva Trump akatora chigaro muna Ndira 20.

Mhedzisiro iyi ichawedzera mumaindasitiri, kubva pakugadzira dzimba nekugadzira mota kusvika kune zvivakwa zveveruzhinji, zvichiwedzera inflation panguva iyo hupfumi hweUS hunoramba husina kusimba.

Nepo mitero ichiwanzo gadzirwa sechishandiso chekuchengetedza indasitiri yemumba, nhoroondo inoratidza kuti havawanzo kuunza mabhenefiti akasimba. Pane kudaro, vanogadzira mitengo yakakwira, kusashanda zvakanaka kwehupfumi, uye kukanganiswa kwemusika kusingatarisike, vachisimbisa kutenderera kwemitemo yekutengeserana yekutsiva iyo inozopedzisira yanetesa kukura kwepasirese.

Kupfuura kutsiva: Kudiwa kwechirongwa chenguva refu

Europe haigone kungoita chete. Panzvimbo pezviyero zvenguva pfupi, izvi zvinofanirwa kuve zvinokonzeresa kugadziridzwa kwehupfumi kwenguva refu. Europe inofanira kutanga yasimbisa hwaro hwayo hweindasitiri. Kudzikisira kuvimba nevatengesi vekunze kune zvakakosha zvekushandisa uye zvakakosha zvekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvichaita kuti EU isanyanya kutarisana nekukatyamadzwa kwekutengeserana mune ramangwana. Kuisa mari mukugadzirwa kwepamberi, kudhirowa zviwanikwa, uye maindasitiri ehunyanzvi zvinopa kuchengetedzeka kwenguva refu.

Trade diversification imwe nzvimbo inokosha. Nepo iyo US icharamba iri yakakosha kudyidzana mukutengeserana, Europe inofanirwa kukurumidza kusiyanisa kudyidzana kwayo kwepasirese kwekutengeserana. Kuwedzera zvibvumirano nemisika ichiri kusimukira muAsia, Latin America, uye Africa kunoderedza kutsamira pane chero musika mumwe chete uye kugadzira mikana mitsva yekukura kwemabhizinesi eEurope.

Zvakakosha zvakaenzana kusimbaradza kutengeserana kwemukati meEuropean uye kudyidzana kwemaindasitiri. Kana nyika dzeEurope dzikadyidzana zvakanyanya pamaketani ekugovera, mapurojekiti ezvivakwa, uye tsvagiridzo, EU ichave yakamisikidzwa zvirinani kufamba nenjodzi dzekutengesa kunze. Hupfumi hwakasimba, hwekuzvimirira hweEurope huchave husina njodzi yekushanduka kwemitemo yeWashington.

Zvakadaro kukwikwidza kwenguva refu kweEurope kunozotsanangurwa kwete chete nekudyara mumaindasitiri echizvarwa chinotevera, asi nekushandura mari iyi kuita hutungamiriri hwepasirese. Nepo zvirongwa zvinoda NextGenerationEU vateya hwaro, tarisiro inofanira ikozvino kumhanyisa kugamuchirwa kweAI, shanduko yedhijitari, otomatiki, uye simba rinogoneka kuita injini dzinozvitsigira dzehupfumi. Aya zvikamu zvinofanirwa kuenderera mberi kwechinangwa chegwaro uye kuve madhiraivha anokatyamadza ekukura kwehupfumi uye kusimba kwekutengesa.

Europe haigone kukwikwidza pasi rose ichiita sehupfumi hwenyika hwakakamukana. Matambudziko akanyanya - akadai sedambudziko redzimba, mari yezvivakwa, uye mari yekudzivirira - inoda nzira yakabatana yemari. Bhajeti yakajairika uye nzira dzechikwereti dzakabatana dzaizogonesa Europe kuita nechiyero, kukurumidza, uye kugona kwenyika imwe chete, kuve nechokwadi chekuti maindasitiri ane hunyanzvi anogashira mari uye kurongeka kunodiwa kuti arambe achikwikwidza.

mhedziso

Mitero yaTrump ndeyekumutsa kuEurope, ichifumura kusasimba kwemubatanidzwa wehupfumi uye kutangazve kwekudzivirira. Dambudziko harisi rekungopindura chete asi kuita zvine hungwaru, kuvhara mukaha pakati pechishuvo chegwaro uye shanduko yemaindasitiri, kusimbisa cheni dzekugovera, uye kuona kuti hunyanzvi hunosvika kumabhizinesi ehukuru hwese. Iyi nguva inoda zvinopfuura matanho ekudzivirira; inoda nzira yakabatana, yenguva refu inoisa Europe semutungamiri wehupfumi hwenyika. Europe inofanirwa kuita izvozvi kugadzira ramangwana rayo, kana kuti panjodzi yekuumbwa nevamwe.

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