Vabatsiri vematunhu akakosha munyika itsva yaTrump yezvematongerwo enyika

Chinangwa chehutongi hwaTrump chekugadzirisa nzira dzekuvaka kuchengetedzwa kwepasirese chichachinja geopolitical dynamics mumatunhu mazhinji, kunyanya muEurasia, dunhu reBlack Sea, uye South Caucasus. Kubva zvakarongwa zvakashata muna 2022 kupinda muUkraine, Russia iri pakudzivirira, ichirasikirwa nesimba muEurasia kumadokero uye Greater Middle East kuenda kuTurkey neUS. Musi wa 24 Kukadzi, yechitatu yegore rekurwisa kwakazara, Belarus chete pakati penyika gumi neina dzisiri dzeRussia dzakatsiva USSR dzakavhotera neRussia kuUnited Nations (UN). Zvichakadaro, Russia iri kurasikirwa nesimba kuTürkiye neChina muGreater Middle East, South Caucasus neCentral Asia, anonyora Taras Kuzio.

Kutarisana neIran

Hutongi hwaTrump huri kukoshesa kupedza hondo yeRussia neUkraine asi munguva pfupi iri kuuya ichatora Iran. Temu yekutanga yaTrump muna 2016-2020 yakaratidza kupikisa kwaanoita hutongi hweIran, anoda shanduko yehutongi uye kupera kwechirongwa chayo chezvombo zvenyukireya. Vanodyidzana naTrump mukurwisa Iran ndiTürkiye, Israel, Ukraine, neAzerbaijan avo vese vane hukama hwakaoma - kana husiri hunopesana - nehutongi hwaTehran.

Türkiye neIran vakwikwidzi venguva refu muSouth Caucasus, Ukraine, uye Greater Middle East. Türkiye anga achipokana neIran, Iranian inotsigirwa nemari uye yakadzidziswa mapuroteni uye mapoka emagandanga muSouth Caucasus, Libya, neSyria. MuEurasia, Türkiye inotsigira Ukraine neAzerbaijan ukuwo Iran ichitsigira vanopikisa, Russia neArmenia.

Hukama hwenyika mbiri hweAzerbaijan neIran hunombosangana nekunetsana, kunyanya pamusoro perutsigiro rweTehran kumapoka emagandanga echiIslam. Iran ine zvichemo zvekusaziva zvakananga kuAzerbaijan izvo vePezhiya venyika vanoona sedunhu rakarasika rakarasika rehumambo hwePezhiya. Kudyidzana kweAzerbaijan nemauto neTürkiye uye neIsrael kwakakosha mukupa nyika kugona kuzvidzivirira kubva kune dzimwe nyika kutyisidzira.

Sezvo vese Russia neIran vachidzamisa mubatanidzwa wavo wechiuto, sezvinoratidzwa nekusaina ichangoburwa yekudyidzana, kuenzanisa mudunhu kungangoguma nekubatana kwepedyo pakati peTurkey, Azerbaijan neIsrael. Izvi, zvakakosha, zvaizoshanda hutongi hwaTrump hunoda kunetesa Iran uye kutsigira maremu edunhu.

Naizvozvo zvingave zviri mukuda kweUS, pamwe neNATO, kutsigira kudyidzana kwedunhu pakati penyika dzinodzivirira kudzoka kweRussia uye Iran ichisimuka kubva mukukunda kwayo kwemauto nehurongwa muSyria, Gaza neRebhanoni. Hutongi hwaTrump hutongi hwekunze hunogona kunge hune pragmatic, huchiisa pamberi pekushandira pamwe nenyika dzinounza mabhenefiti uye dzinowedzera kukosha kune zvakakomba zvinangwa zvezvematongerwo enyika uye nekudaro kunetesa Iran neRussia nekubatana nenyika dzinodzivirira kudzoka kwavo kunoshandira zvinangwa zvehutongi hwaTrump.

Kudzika kudyidzana kweIsrael-Azerbaijan kuchaunza dambudziko rakakura kuIran, kunyanya kupihwa muganho wakakura weAzerbaijan nenyika. Israel yagara iri shamwari yepedyo yeUS neEurope. Muna Gumiguru wegore rapfuura, US yakapa rubatsiro rwemauto kuIsrael kupfura zvombo zveIranian uye drones izvo zvakange zvatangwa kurwisa. Kurwiswa kweIsrael neIran kwakabatsira mukudzivirira Iran kuti isapindire kudzivirira mubatsiri wayo weSyria, mudzvanyiriri Assad.. Israel yatanga kupa mauto ekudzivirira kuUkraine.

Panharaunda yeEurope

Türkiye, Ukraine, neAzerbaijan dziri kumativi eEurope uye dzakasangana nematambudziko akafanana muhukama hwavo neEurope neWest zvakanyanya. Türkiye anga achitsvaga kupinda muEU kubvira 1987 asi kubvira 2016 hurukuro idzi dzakamira. Pane kudaro, Türkiye akatanga hukama hwehukama neAzerbaijan, akawedzera hukama neTurkic World, uye akave mutambi wezvematongerwo enyika muGreater Middle East.

Zvakatora EU makore mashanu mushure meOrange Revolution kupa Ukraine tarisiro yekubatanidzwa chete kuburikidza neEastern Partnership. Izvo zvakabva zvatora EU angangoita mamwe makumi maviri emakore kusvika yazara-chiyero isati yapa Ukraine nhengo. Azerbaijan haina kumbobvira yatsvaga nhengo yeEU, ichisarudza kupinda mumubatanidzwa mune dzisiri dzakabatana uye dzeTurkic.

Pasinei nesarudzo dzayo dzakasununguka, Türkiye yakashorwa sehutongi hwehudzvanyiriri asi chokwadi inganyatsotsanangurwa sehutongi hwemasanganiswa, kana muhurukuro yeUS kodzero dzevanhu vanofunga nezveFreedom House, 'yakasununguka chikamu.' Ukraine yakatevera makumi matatu emakore edemocratization uye zvakadaro yakangopihwa nzira yenhengo muEU misodzi miviri yapfuura uye yakarambwa kuve nhengo yeNATO.

Erdogan - saTrump - anotevera mutemo wekunze unofambiswa nehunyanzvi uye kuchengetedza hukama hwakasimba naTürkiye, inhengo yeNATO, inofanirwa kuve yakakosha kuUS. Ongororo yehutongi hwaTrump yezvekune dzimwe nyika nekuchengetedza mutemo weUS, sezvakaratidzwa nekumiswa kweUSAID, inoratidza nguva itsva yekudyidzana kweAmerica uye pragmatic kusiyana nerutsigiro rwechinyakare rwekuparadzira hunhu hwakasununguka uye mitemo yepasirese iyo yakatsigira US inotungamirwa unipolar nyika. Mutungamiri Recep Tayyip Erdogan vanotsigira zvavanoona sekodzero yaTürkiye, sesimba repakati, kuita uye kupindira muEurasia neGreater Middle East mukutsigira zvido zvayo zvenyika.

EU icharamba ichitsigira rubatsiro kuTürkiye nekuda kwekutama. EU yakapa mari inodarika bhiriyoni gumi nerimwe kuTurkey kuti ibatsire mukugara kwevapoteri veSyria vane mamirioni matatu izvo zvingangoenderera mberi zvichipihwa kusimuka kwevatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika muEurope vanoparadzira hunhu hwekupokana nekusarura. AfD (Alternative Germany) yakauya yechipiri musarudzo dzemwedzi uno muGermany.

Russia uye South Caucasus

Kubva muna 2022 kupinda kwakazara kweUkraine, pesvedzero yeRussia yanga ichidzikira muEurasia, neBelarus ichisara mubatsiri wayo wepedyo. Central Asia iri kuyedza kusimbisa hukama hwayo nenyika yeTurkic ichiwedzera kukweverwa munzvimbo yeChina yesimba. Moldova neUkraine, uko Russia iri kurwa hondo yekuparadza rudzi, dziri munzira yekuve nhengo yeEU. Chokwadi chitsva cheRussia geopolitical muEurasia chiri kunyanya kunetsa muSouth Caucasus uko Armenia iri kutevera kubatanidzwa kweEurope, Georgia iri mumhirizhonga uye hutongi hwepro-Russian hunogona kukurumidza kuparadzwa, uye Azerbaijan iri kusimbisa hukama hwayo nenyika dzeTurkic uye dzisiri dzakabatana. Vanochengetedza runyararo veRussia vakabuda mushure mekunge Azerbaijan yasunungura nzvimbo yayo yekupedzisira yeKarabakh. Hukama hweAzerbaijan neRussia hwaderera kubva pakadonhedzwa ndege neMoscow. Russia's t Russian hegemony muEurasia iri kusvika kumagumo zvichitungamira pakubuda kwemubatanidzwa mutsva, wedunhu.

Kuzvipira kweKremlin kwemauto nehupfumi muUkraine kwakonzera kuti Russia itadze kutevedzera hurongwa hwekunze nevechiuto hwesimba guru raizofanana nenyika yeMutungamiri Vladimir Putin - Soviet Union. Zvakare, hukama hweRussia naTürkiye huri panjodzi yekukurumidza kuchinja geopolitical realities. Izvi zvinoshanda kuhondo dzese neUkraine asiwo neSyria, uko Kremlin yakakundwa zvine mutsindo munyika yakanga yakabatana neSoviet Union kubvira Hafez al-Assad akatanga kutonga muna 1971 uye neRussia kubva 2000 pasi pemwanakomana wake Bashar al-Assad.

Türkiye neRussia vanga vari kumativi akasiyana mukurwisana kwematunhu akati wandei. Muna 2019, Türkiye akatsigira hurumende yeTripoli inozivikanwa neUN vachipesana neRussia-inotsigirwa Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar yeLibyan National Army mauto, mukuru wehondo anobva kumabvazuva kweLibhiya. Kwapera gore, tsigiro yaTürkiye muHondo yechipiri yeKarabakh yakabatsira mukukunda kwemauto eAzerbaijan uye kusunungurwa kwechishanu chenyika yayo iyo yakanga yatorwa neArmenia kubva kutanga kwema1990. Türkiye akabvisa hutongi hwepro-Russian Assad muSyria muna Zvita 2024.

Zvichakadaro, Türkiye neUkraine, sezvakaratidzwa nekushanya kweMutungamiri weUkraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy kuTurkey mwedzi uno, vakatevera (zvisingaonekwe) hukama hwehukama nemauto mumakore makumi maviri apfuura. Türkiye mutsoropodzi wehondo yeRussia neUkraine, anotsigira kuperera kwenharaunda yeUkraine (kusanganisira kudzoka kweCrimea kuUkraine), uye anotsigira nhengo yeUkraine yeNATO. Türkiye neUkraine dziri kushanda pamwe muzvirongwa zvemauto akati wandei, kusanganisira kuvaka chirimwa muUkraine kuvaka icho chinozivikanwa. mureza the drones

The West's conundrum

Pasi pevakatangira VaTrump, US yakatora marongero akananga kuTürkiye, Ukraine neAzerbaijan izvo zvakatadza kubvuma kukosha kwavo. Hukama hweUS naTürkiye hwakanga husina kumira zvakanaka nekuda kwenzvimbo huru yekuAmerica-Armenian, kutsigira kweUS kuSyria Kurdish YPG ine zvinongedzo kuPKK, uye kutengwa kweRussia S-400 air defense system. IUS iri kubvisa mauto ayo kubva kuMiddle East uye haichadzoreri YPG. Türkiye ari kutenga ndege dzehondo dzemuUS uye ari kufunga kupa Russian S-400 kuUkraine.

Iwo maBiden naTrump manejimendi akapokana nhengo dzeUkraine dzeNATO. Biden haana kumbotsigira kukundwa kwemauto eRussia uye akangopa rubatsiro rwakakwana rwemauto kuUkraine kuti isakundwe, asi kwete kukunda muhondo. VaTrump vanobvumirana nechikumbiro cheEuropean chekuti Ukraine yaizongopihwa nhengo yeNATO kana Russia ikatyora chibvumirano chekumisa pfuti uye ikapindazve.

Kuve nhengo yeUkraine yeNATO yaizowedzera mauto makuru uye ane ruzivo rwehondo muEurope pamwe chete neakanyanya hunyanzvi hwekudzivirira maindasitiri epasirese. Mwedzi uno US neUkraine dzichasaina chibvumirano chekushandiswa pamwe chete kwezvicherwa zveUkraine zvisingawanzo, zvichipa US chikamu chenguva refu muhupfumi hweUkraine, kugadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye chengetedzo kuburikidza neRussia ichamuka zvakare. Kudyidzana kwemauto nehupfumi hweUkraine neEU kucharamba kuchikura sezvo VaTrump vachiendesa mutoro wehondo muUkraine kuenda kuEurope. EU, iyo yakapa rubatsiro rwakakura rwemauto uye rusiri rwechiuto kuUkraine kupfuura iyo US kubva 2022, iri kusarudza pamusoro pezvimiro zve a Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) aizodaro kupa vimbiso dzekuchengetedza kana Russia ikatyora chibvumirano chekumisa pfuti.

Nyika dzeUS neEurope, dzakaita seFrance, dzakagara dzichitsigira Armenia pamusoro peAzerbaijan mukurwisana kwavo kwemakumi matatu emakore. Izvi zvinoshamisa sezvo Armenia inhengo yekutanga yeCSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) uye EEU (Eurasian Economic Union), masangano maviri Azerbaijan haana kumbobatana. Armenia ine mabhesi maviri emauto eRussia. Pamusoro pezvo, US neEU vanofuratira Armenia, neGeorgia, neKyrgyzstan vachityora zvirango nekutumirazve kunze zvinhu zvekuMadokero kuRussia.

Hukama hweEU neArmenia huchakura sezvainotsvaga nhengo. Zvichakadaro, Azerbaijan iri kuita mubatanidzwa wesimba reEurope nekupihwa kwemafuta ayo uye gasi kuburikidza neTürkiye inogona kukura. Norway, Azerbaijan uye nekuwedzera iyo US yatora yaimbove magetsi eRussia kuEurope.

mhedziso

Hutongi hwaVaTrump huri mushishi yekuongorora zvakare mitemo yeUS yekunze nekuchengetedza. Chinonyanya kukosha chekuongororazve uku kunofanirwa kunge kuri kusimbisa hukama hweUS neTürkiye, Ukraine, neAzerbaijan. IUS inofanirwa kuona Türkiye semubatsiri akakosha wezvematongerwo enyika muGreater Middle East kurwisa kupindira kweRussia uye maproxies eIran uye muCentral Asia kurwisa China. Türkiye neAzerbaijan vanofanirwa kuve vadyidzani vakakosha veUS munyika dzeTurkic uye dzisiri dzakabatana, zviremera zveIran uye zvitubu zvesimba kuEurope. Ukraine, pamwe pamwe chete nePoland, nemauto avo makuru uye zvikamu zvekudzivirira, inogona kuve mubatanidzwa wakasimba waTrump muEurope.

Hutongi hwaTrump hunofanirwa kutsigira Türkiye, Ukraine, neAzerbaijan mukuve maremu edunhu kuRussia, Iran, neChina.

Taras Kuzio purofesa wesainzi yezvematongerwo enyika paNational University yeKyiv Mohyla Academy uye munyori pamwe webhuku ririkuuya. Midzi mina yeHondo yeRussia neUkraine.

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