Maitiro eTrump II manejimendi angagadzirisa sei kurongeka kwepasirese

Munyaya yangu yekutanga ndakatsanangura kuti sei Kamala Harris akarasikirwa nesarudzo isingagoneki. Muchinyorwa chechipiri cheiyi nhevedzano, ndakabata nemubvunzo werudzii rwe shanduko dzatingatarisira muUS mukati mehutongi hweTrump II, anonyora Vidya S Sharma*, Ph.D.

Muchikamu chino ndinoda kuongorora kuti hukama hweUnited States nedzimwe nyika hungakanganiswa sei panguva yeTrump II Administration, kunyanya neEurope, NATO allies, Japan, ASEAN, neAustralia; uye zvakare vakwikwidzi vayo vaviri vakanyanya kuronga, Russia neChina.

TRUMP II ACHANGE AKASIYANA NETRUMP I

Pane misiyano mikuru mitatu pakati paTrump I naTrump II.

Kusiyana naTrump I, Trump II anoziva mashandiro anoita Federal Government muchina uye maparamende anoshanda. Uyezve, anoziva vazhinji vevatungamiriri veEurope. Akabata naPutin, Modi, Xi Jinping naKim Jong-un panguva yake yekutanga.

Chechipiri, Trump II anoziva vanhu vakawanda. Zvakawanda kupfuura Trump zvandakamboita. Ndosaka zvisina kumunetsa kuwana vanhu vakavimbika kwaari nekuvadoma pazvinzvimbo zvepamusoro zvakasiyana zvinoda kusimbiswa nedare reSenate. Ndinopa mienzaniso mitatu:

Mutungamiri-vakasarudzwa VaTrump vakadoma Mike Gatez seGweta Guru rake kunyangwe hazvo aiferefetwa neRepublican Party-inodzorwa neHouse Ethics Committee uye muna 2020 akapomerwa mhosva yekutengesa bonde uye kurara nevadiki (kunyangwe FBI yakasarudza kusatora. zvakadaro zvakare). Gatez akazvibvisa pagakava pazvakava pachena kwaari kuti Seneti haifi yakatendera kudomwa kwake.

Gatez achangobva kubuda, VaTrump vakadoma Pam Bondi, aimbove Attorney General weFlorida, airamba sarudzo aitenda kuti Federal Department of Justice yakanga yapfurwa uye yaivhima VaTrump. Akadzivirira Trump panguva yake kutongwa kwekutanga impeachment uye akatokwira ndege kuenda kuNew York kunopa Trump rutsigiro rwetsika panguva yekutongwa kwake kwaakawanikwa aine mhosva yekukwidza kukosha kwezvivakwa zvake nekunzvenga mutero.

VaTrump vachangobva kudoma Kashyap Promod Patel seMutungamiriri wake weFBI. Aive mukuru wevashandi kune anobata Secretary Defense panguva yehutongi hwaTrump I. Iye igweta nebasa rakagara richipopotera iyo inonzi Deep State (ona bhuku rake Magandanga eHurumende) uye ane vvane chikwereti chokuranga Vavengi vaTrump. Patel nenhamba huru yenhengo dzeGOP dzakasarudzwa dzakagara dzichitsanangura FBI sesangano rine huori. FBI nemutungamiri wayo akagadzwa naTrump, Christopher Wray, vakatadza kufarirwa naTrump yekupamba nzvimbo yaTrump Mar-a-Lago mukutsvaga zvinyorwa zvakasarudzika zvakabviswa muWhite House.

Vaverengi vanogona kuzvisarudzira vega kuti vanhu vakadai vanogona here kuita basa ravo nekusada uye nekugona.

Chechitatu, VaTrump II vanouya pamasimba vaine hurongwa hwakanyanyisa, munyika uye nepasirese. Kunze kwemitemo yake yehupfumi (kusanganisira kudzingwa kwevanhu vakawanda vanobva kune dzimwe nyika zvisiri pamutemo)

akahwinawo mvumo yekutevera zvematongerwo enyika zvevendetta achipikisa vanhu nemasangano aaiona kuti aishingaira mukumuvhima varoyi.

Ini ndinotaura chokwadi chiri pamusoro apa kungonongedza kuti panguva ino VaTrump havazove nevapi vezano vakaita saGen. John Kelly (mukuru weWhite House wevashandi veTrump kubva 2017 kusvika 2019) kana Gen. Jim Mattis (Munyori weDziviriro waTrump kubva muna Ndira 2017 kusvika Kukadzi 2019 ) vanogona kupa Trump zano risingafadzi Trump uye vamire nezvikonzero zvekuvimbika.

Panguva ino Trump ichashandirwa nema sycophants / acolytes / vanotyisa vanovimbika vanozove nechido chekuita zvaanoda. Vazhinji vavanhu vanosarudzwa havana hwaro hwezvamatongerwe enyika hwavo vamene. Ichi ndicho chikonzero asina kupa chero basa kuna Nikki Haley mukutonga kwake.

Achanzwa akadzivirirwa kana kuti vamiriri veGOP vakasarudzwa vese muLower House neSeneti vachazeza kumushora nekuti vanoziva mukurumbira waTrump waita kuti vakwanise kudzora maparamende ese.

KUDZORERA TRUMP KUTI "TRANSACTIONAL" HAZVISI FAIR

Izwi rekuti "transaction" rave richishandiswa nenzira yekunyomba pakutsanangura maitiro aTrump ekubata nedzimwe nyika/vatungamiri, kureva diplomacy.

Uku hakusi kushoropodza Trump kwakanaka. Chokwadi ndechezve zvematongerwo enyika - kungave mukati memhuri, zvematongerwo enyika kana pakati penyika. Zvave zvakadaro kubva kuna Pharaohs vekutanga Dynasty.

Chakasiyana ndechekuti VaTrump vanoudza vamwe vavo vari kune dzimwe nyika zvavanoda kubva kwavari kuitira kuti vapihwe mvumo. Haazvisiire kuvachipangamazano vake/ vamiriri/ vanyori vedare remakurukota kuti vataurirane nenyika vachipokana kuti US ingada kuti vaitei. Uyewo Trump haazvisiyi kune fungidziro yeimwe mutungamiriri wenyika (s) kuti vanofanira kubhadhara sei pachibvumirano chakapihwa.

MARCO RUBIO SEMUNYORI WOKUNHU

Nekuda kwaTrump, Rubio munhu akakodzera pabasa iri: Iye hawkish akananga kuChina. Anovenga Cuba, Venezuela, uye Iran. Haana kumbobvira aratidza kufarira zvakanyanya kutambura kwevaPalestine. Ndiye mutsigiri akasimba weIsrael uye sevamwe vakawanda muGOP anotarisa mhirizhonga yeUkraine-Russia segakava renharaunda. Mune mamwe mazwi, haatarise hondo yeRussia-Ukraine kubva pakuona kweDomino Theory (inofarirwa naBiden naZelensky uye yakaratidza kuti haina kururama nekudonha kweSouth Vietnam uye zvakare muAfghanistan).

BIDEN ANOSIYA NYIKA ISINGADZIDZE KUTI TIRIMBERI PASI PANE AKAGARA NHAA

Biden anosiya nyika ine njodzi kupfuura yaakagara nhaka muna 2020. Biden Administration yakaita kukanganisa kwemitemo yekunze yakati wandei. Ini ndinotaura zvitatu zvacho muchidimbu: Kutanga, iyo US inobatanidzwa muhondo mbiri: (a) Hondo yeIsrael-Gaza kuMiddle East uko pasi peBiden iyo US yakaita basa revanopisa uye vanopisa moto, kureva, kupa vese. zvombo, masisitimu ezvombo nemabhomba zvakakumbirwa neIsrael pasina simba rekuti Hurumende yeIsrael inoitisa sei hondo uye panguva imwe cheteyo ichiita nhamburiko dzisina simba dzekupa rubatsiro kuvanhu veGaza; uye (b) Hondo yeUkraine-Russia iri kuenda kuRussia. Gadziriro yaBiden kuRussia yakamanikidza vekupedzisira kutsvaga kudyidzana kwakanyanya neChina, North Korea neIran nokudaro zvichiita kuti Eastern Europe, North Asia neMiddle East dzisanyatsogadzikana. Izvi zvakaderedzawo kugona kweUS kubata neChina munguva refu.

RUSSIA NEUKRAINE

Idzi inguva dzekushushikana dzeUkraine. Vazhinji vekuUkraine vanotarisa Trump nekunyumwira nekuda kwekusava nechokwadi kwake kunozivikanwa nezve mari yehondo yeUkraine neRussia. Kuzvitaura zviri nyore kuRussia kwave kuri kurwisana kuripo uye kuUkraine hondo yesarudzo.

Mutungamiri Zelensky anofanira kunge achizvituka kuti sei achimanikidzwa naBiden akasarudza kusaina chibvumirano cherunyararo (inowanzonzi Istanbul communique) yakabhurwa naTürkiye muna Kubvumbi 22. Matemo echero chibvumirano chinosaina neUkraine ikozvino achange akashata kupfuura izvo Istanbul Communique yakapihwa nekuti nemazuva ese ari kupfuura Ukraine iri kurasikirwa nenzvimbo.

Dare reIstanbul rakadaidzira kuti mativi maviri aya atsvage kugadzirisa murunyararo gakava ravo pamusoro peCrimea mukati memakore gumi nemashanu anotevera. Ikozvino zvine chokwadi chekuti Ukraine ichafanirwa kusiya zvachose Crimea (iyo isina kumbobvira yave yeUkraine kudzamara Brezhnev apa chipo kuUkraine musi wa15 Kukadzi 19) kuRussia uye pamwe mazhinji emaoblasts (matunhu ekutonga) anosanganisira Eastern Ukraine. Kumabvazuva kweUkraine kunowanzogarwa nevanhu vanotaura chiRussian vanotaura vekuUkraine uye ndiyo nzvimbo yakabudirira yeUkraine. Kunyangwe mushure mekunge chibvumirano cherunyararo chasainwa, Ukraine ichafanira kudzidza kugara neRussia yakashatirwa.

Zelensky nevakuru vezvematongerwo enyika vekuUkraine vanogona kupomera Trump mhosva yekuisa chibvumirano cherunyararo chavanofunga kuti chinopesana nezvido zveUkraine asi chokwadi chinoramba chiripo dai Biden kana Kamala Harris vakakunda musarudzo dzeMutungamiriri wenyika yeUS muna 2024 uye vakaramba vachipa mari yehondo yeUkraine, Ukraine ingadai yakakunda. yakaguma yarasikirwa nevarume vakawanda nenzvimbo.

Mukutaura kwake kwekupedzisira (kuonekana) kuUN General Assembly, Biden akadana Israel kuti ipinde munhaurirano dzerunyararo nemaPalestine asi akakumbira pasi rese kuti rirambe richirwa neRussia.

Kutaura kwaBiden kwaive muenzaniso wehutsinye realpolitik. Hazvisi mukuda kweUS kubatanidzwa muhondo kuMiddle East. Nokudaro kudanwa kworugare. Asi US inofarira "kunetesa Russia kusvika pakutadza kuita zvinhu zvayange ichiita", kutora mazwi Munyori weDziviriro weUS Lloyd Austin. Pane nzira yakangwara yekuzadzisa chinangwa ichi kupfuura kutsvaga mercenary vezvematongerwo enyika vanoda kupa hupenyu hwevanhu vemunyika yavo vasina kudzidziswa zvakanaka munhandare yehondo nemabhiriyoni mashoma emadhora?

Trump anogona kunge ari zvinhu zvakawanda asi haasi benzi. Sechikamu chechero chibvumirano chaanobhuroka pakati peUkraine neRussia, achaita hutongi uye kuchengetedzeka kwenzvimbo dzenzvimbo dzinodzorwa neUkraine dzakavimbiswa. Pamwe kwete neNATO zviri pamutemo asi nenhengo dzeNATO. Putin anogona kunge achida kuita chibvumirano chero bedzi Ukraine ichivimbisa kusazvigadzirira, inovimbisa kusagadzira / kutora zvombo zvenyukireya uye inoramba isina kwayakarerekera muchiuto nekusiya danho rayo rekubatana neNATO kana kusaina chibvumirano chekudzivirira chinogona kutyisidzira kuchengetedzwa kweRussia.

Kuzvitaura zviri nyore kuRussia kwave kuri kurwisana kuripo uye kuUkraine hondo yesarudzo.

Ehe, varwi veCold War vachiri kugara muDhipatimendi Rezvekune dzimwe nyika reUS uye vazhinji vanofunga matangi vangasada chibvumirano cherunyararo chinobvuma kuti Russia ine zvinonetsa zviri pamutemo nezve kuchengetedzeka kwayo kumuganhu wekumabvazuva. Vanhu vakadai vachaona chero chibvumirano cherunyararo chisingaenderane nekupikiswa uye kunyadziswa kweRussia sezvo Trump achikotamira kune mudzvanyiriri weRussia.

Kupera kwehondo muUkraine kuchapa nzvimbo uye nguva kuUS kunetesa / kusunungura hukama pakati peRussia neChina. Russia inoziva kuti haimbofi yakatarisira kuve mubatsiri akaenzana muhukama hwayo neChina. Yakamanikidzwa kugashira chinzvimbo chemudiki nekuti chakanyanya kukoshesa parizvino hachisi chekukomberedzwa neNATO kumberi kwayo kwekuMabvazuva. Hachina kukanganwa vose vari vaviri Napoléon Bonaparte naHitler vakavhozhokera Russia vachibva Mabvazuva.

Tichifunga nezve shanduko yepasirese nharaunda, yeUkraine Mutungamiri Zelensky yakurudzira kugumisa 'chikamu chinopisa' chehondo mukutsinhana kwenhengo yeNATO pasina matunhu anogarwa. Izvi zvinogona kunge zviri mukuvhura gambit yake nekuti Russia, iri pasi paPutin kana chero mumwe mutungamiri, haizombobvumiri Ukraine kujoina NATO.

Pane kuteerera kurudzi rwe varairidzi uyo akarayira Ukraine kuti irambe chibvumirano cherunyararo yakabhurwa naTürkiye muna Kubvumbi 22, Ukraine inofanira kufunga zvakamunakira, kureva kuti, kuziva kuti Russia iri kutevera zano rekurwisa iro riri kupera zvishoma nezvishoma mauto ayo ane zvombo, achipedza mauto eAmerica, achikuvadza zvakanyanya kuzvivako zveUkraine zvekuti mutengo wayo wekuvakazve uchatumira EU. akatyoka. Pamusoro pese Madokero haagone kugadzirisa masimba eUkraine uye yakaderera hunhu matambudziko kunze kwekunge NATO yakagadzirira kuisa masoja ayo pasi.

Hapana kumira. Hondo iri kuenda kuRussia. Nekuda kweizvozvo, Ukraine inofanirwa kuvavarira kugadzirisa kwenhaurirano inochengetedza kuchengetedzwa kwayo, inoderedza njodzi dzekuwedzera kurwisa kweRussia uye nekudaro inosimudzira kugadzikana mudunhu.

CHINA

Kubva pamaonero aVaTrump, China ndiyo inotyisa zvikuru: ndiyo yave nebasa rekubvisa chikamu chekugadzira muUS, nekudaro ichidzikisa pakati pemadokero eUS kuita ngura. Sezvo Figure 2 pazasi inoratidza China haina kuita mari yakananga muUS. Zvisina kutaurwa naTrump asi zvakanyatso nyorwa kuti pavadzivisi vese veUS, China yanga ichinyanya kushanda muindasitiri yeespionage (kusanganisira chip kugadzira uye Artificial intelligence) uye kuba tekinoroji yemauto (sezvandambotaura).

Kana yaedza kuisa mari kuUS (kuEuropewo) yakaedza kutora masangano anozoipa indasitiri kana mauto epamusoro pamusoro pevaikwikwidza kuMadokero uye kuita kuti ikwanise kuzviriritira mune tekinoroji. Izvi zvave chokwadi kunyangwe pakuedza kwayo kutenga inoita kunge isina kunaka yekufambidzana app, Grindr kuUS.

Muna 2016, Beijing Kunlun Tech yakatenga 60 per cent yeGrindr (gay dating app) uye yakapedza kutora mukutanga kwa 2018. Mushure mokunge kutengeserana kwapfuura, Hurumende yeUnited States yakamuka kuti Grindr angave ane zvinyorwa zvevakawanda vengochani avo. anogona kunge ari munzvimbo dzepamusoro mukati meHurumende yeUS kana mune imwe yezviuru zvemakambani anoita makondirakiti echiuto. Vanhu ava vanogona kubatwa nechisimba nekudaro voisa njodzi kukuchengetedzwa kwenyika yeUS. Naizvozvo, muna 2019, Beijing Kunlun Tech yakamanikidzwa kubvisa Gridr.

Mune mamwe mazwi, zvinogona kunge zvakatora makumi emakore kuti vagadziri vemitemo veUS vaone kuti China yaive mhandu ine simba kwazvo muAmerica asi China, kubvira payakahwina muongorori wezvekune dzimwe nyika Bill Clinton kuti atsigire hunhengo hweChina kuWorld Trading Organisation nechikonzero chekuti yaive. hupfumi hwakavakirwa pamusika, inoziva mukwikwidzi wayo mukuru aive US.

Trump inoratidzika kunge inonyanya kutaura nezveChina chete maererano nekutyisidzira kwehupfumi, semuenzaniso, China inomhanya zvakanyanya kutengesa zvakasara kuUS, ichibvisa mabasa eAmerica nekuzadza misika yeUS neChina inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, nezvimwewo. chishandiso / zano rekutaurirana kuitira kuti akwanise kutaurirana nezve kutengeserana kwakaringana mhedzisiro neChina.

Mutungamiri-vakasarudzwa VaTrump vane mvumo yekutemera 60% kusvika 100% mutero pazvigadzirwa zveChinese. Kuti awedzere kumanikidza China, panguva imwe cheteyo, ari kukumbira mabhizinesi eAmerica kuti vaunze imba yavo yekugadzira yeChinese kana shamwari-mahombekombe kune dzimwe nyika dzingangotyisidzira US zvine hunyanzvi (semuenzaniso, nyika dziri kuCentral neSouth America). Iri rinogona kuzove zano rakanaka mukufamba kwenguva sezvo mikana yakawanda yebasa munyika idzodzo ichireva vashoma vanobva kune zvisiri pamutemo kuUS.

Biden akatevera mutemo waTrump paChina. Akaenderera mberi nekurambidza kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwemamwe machipisi eAI nemichina inoshandiswa muindasitiri yesemiconductor kuenda kuChina. Biden akazviita nekuti, pamusoro pekuona China sekutyisidzira kwehupfumi akaonawo China - kusiyana naTrump asi sevazhinji vevapi vamazano vaTrump - semhandu inofanirwa kurwiswa nekudzikisirwa. Isu hatisati taziva kuti Mutungamiri Trump achaita sei kana machipisi ari pasi (hapana pun yakarongedzerwa), semuenzaniso, kana China ikafunga kubatanidza Taiwan muChina nechisimba.

HUAWEI

Kudzikamisa hutongi hweChina muindasitiri yezvekufambiswa kwemashoko, Biden Administration yakarambidza Huawei kubva pakuteta maG5 network. Biden Administration yakadzimawo marezinesi eakasiyana siyana eUS semiconductor nemamwe makambani kubva kutengesa machipisi avo nezvimwe zvigadzirwa kuHuawei netarisiro yekuti zvaizokanganisa kukura kweHuawei kwemakore mazhinji ari kuuya.

Nekudaro, Huawei muenzaniso wakakwana wekuti mutero haushande sei kutarisa hutongi hweChina mune matekinoroji akadai seAI, semiconductors, mota dzemagetsi (Trump inotarisirwa kumanikidza 100% basa pavari), simba rezuva, quantum computing, marobhoti, nezvimwe.

Huawei, panzvimbo yekuoma uye kuderera, yakakura, zvakawanda zvakasiyana, zvakanyanya vertically zvakabatanidzwa uye kambani ine mari yakawanda nhasi.

Gore rapfuura, kutengeswa kwaHuawei kwaisvika mabhiriyoni zana emadhora, kureva, zvakapetwa kaviri kupfuura zveOracle. Iyo ingangoita hafu yesaizi yeSamsung asi ichipedza zvakapetwa kaviri paR & D. Bhajeti yaro yepagore yeR&D yemadhora US100 bhiriyoni inongopfuurwa neAlphabet (mubereki weGoogle), Amazon, Apple neMicrosoft.

Gore rapfuura yakaita madhora US12.3 bhiriyoni mupurofiti inodarika iyo yeNokia neNokia. Vaviri vekupedzisira vari kurasa vashandi apo Huawei ari kuhaya vanhu. Iko zvino ine vashandi zviuru gumi nezviviri kupfuura zvayakaita muna 12,000.

Munguva pfupi yapfuura Huawei akaburitsa yayo Mate 70 smartphone, ine HarmonyOS Inotevera, yayo yakazara imba yekushandisa system, inokwikwidza Apple's iOS uye Google's Android. Kuvhurwa uku kunoratidza kusununguka kwehunyanzvi hweChina kuri kukura.

Chimwe chinhu chiri kubatsira China inyaya yekuti yanga ichiba matekinoroji muzvikamu zvese - angave masangano ehurumende kana makambani akazvimirira kana masangano ekutsvagisa nemayunivhesiti - kwenguva refu.

MAWODZANYEMBA KORIYA

Mushure mekukundikana kwemusangano weHanoi wa2019 pakati peMutungamiri Trump naKim Jong-un, vekupedzisira vanoita kunge vakafunga kuti kuwirirana neUnited States kwaisagoneka munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Mukati memakore mana kusvika mashanu, huwandu hwevanhu vekuNorth Korea vangangove varombo asi nyika yave nesimba rehondo.

Hondo yeUkraine-Russia yakabatsira kuNorth Korea mumativi maviri: Yakaunza Russia pedyo neChina neNorth Korea. China haina kumbobvira yafarira kubatsira US muchinangwa chayo chekubvisa nyukireya kuKorea Peninsula. Nechikonzero chakareruka chekuti nyukireya satellite yenyika yeNorth Korea inoita kuti China ive yakachengeteka. Inogona kuvimbwa nayo kuti ikwidze kusawirirana kana paine skirmishes / hondo muTaiwan Straits. Kana paine hukama hwakanaka pakati peRussia neUS, iyo yekutanga inogona kuve yakanakira kuisa imwe kumanikidza kuNorth Korea kubatsira US kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo muNorth Asia.

Kuenderera mberi kweHondo yeUkraine-Russia kwave kureva kuti Russia yakamanikidzwa kutsvaga rubatsiro rweNorth Korea pamatanho maviri: kupihwa kwevarwi vakadzidziswa uye zvombo: makomba, mabhomba, uye torpedoes. Mukudzoka kwerubatsiro urwu, North Korea ingadai yakataurirana kuendeswa kweinter-continental ballistic missile uye satellite matekinoroji. Uye pamwe imwe rubatsiro muchimiro chechikafu, peturu uye gasi.

Muchidimbu, VaTrump vachawana North Korea nut yakasimba yekutsemura panguva ino. Zvinogoneka kana North Korea ikasatsamwisa Trump nekuyedza masisitimu ake ezvombo, VaTrump vanogona kusanetsekana neNorth Korea vosiya kuti hutongi hunotevera hugadzirise Kim Jong-un.

JAPANI

Sezvo Mufananidzo 1 pazasi unoratidza Japan ndiyo imwe yenyika dzinomhanyisa kutengeserana kwakakura neUS. Nekuda kwekuti VaTrump vanobatikana nenyika dziri kuita kutengeserana kwakawanda neUS, izvi zvingangoreva kuti hukama hweUS-Japan ndehwenguva dzakaoma dziri mberi. Asi zvingasava saizvozvo.

Pane zvikonzero zvakawanda zveizvi. Nzira iyo Prime Minister Shinzo Abe akatonga nayo hukama hwake naTrump panguva yekutonga kwake kwekutanga yaive shanje yevose vanobatana nevavengi. Mutungamiriri wazvino, Shigeru Ishiba, akashanda muShinzo Abe kabhineti. Saka Ishiba anofanira kuziva zvese nezvazvo.

Zvakangodaro, kune vese vanobatana, Japan ine zvishoma zvekunetseka nazvo kubva kuna Trump II. Shinzo Abe akabata Trump neruremekedzo nekuda kweanonyanya kukosha wekutengesa nekuchengetedza wekuJapan uye haana kumbobvira ataura zvekunyomba pamusoro paTrump (kusiyana naJustin Trudeau naBoris Johnson).

Kupfuurirazve, semufananidzo 2 pazasi unoratidza kuisirwa mari kweJapan muUS kwave kuramba kuchikura uye panosvika 2021 (nhamba dzichangoburwa dziri kuwanikwa kubva kuJapan Trade External Organisation (JETRO), Japan ndiyo yaive investor mukuru muUS.

Maererano ne JETRO report yataurwa pamusoro, Japan ndiyo yaive investor mukuru mumakumi matatu nemapfumbamwe e39 nyika dzeUS. Muna 50, makambani eJapan akashandisa huwandu hwe2020 vekuAmerica (rekodhi yenguva yese). Pane ivava, 931,900 vakapinzwa mukugadzira (iyo chikamu Trump inoda zvikuru kumutsidzira). Uku kwaive kuwedzera kwe534,100% kubva 84.6, kana 2010 vamwe vashandi.

Kunyangwe Ishiba Shigeru (mukwikwidzi wenguva refu waShinzo Abe) asinganakidzwe nekumira kwakafanana kungave munyika kana kunze kwenyika sezvaiitwa naShinzo Abe. MuKoizumi cabinet Ishiba aive Director-General weDefence Agency. Munguva yekupinda muIraq muna 2003 nemubatanidzwa unotungamirwa neAmerica, Ishiba akaona kutumirwa kwekutanga mhiri kwemakungwa kweMaJapan Self-Defence Forces pasina mvumo yeUN mukati mekuratidzira kwakasimba neruzhinji rweJapan. Kubva 2007 kusvika 2008 vakashanda segurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kwenyika mudare remakurukota raFukuda.

Chinzvimbo chaIshiba Shigeru hachina kusimba mubato rake uye zvakare ane mukurumbira wakaderera pakati pevavhoti vekuJapan. Asi anonyatsoziva nharaunda yeJapan irimo. Akavimbisa kuwedzera mari yekudzivirira yeJapan.

Vatatu vevadzivisi vana vakuru veUS, vanoti, China, North Korea neRussia, vavakidzani veJapan. Uyezve, Japan ine hutongi pamusoro pechikamu chikuru che Nansei Islands cheni, chaizvoizvo zvitsuwa zvezasi-kumadokero, zvinonziwo, the Ryū-Kyu archipelago, izvo zvinomanikidza fungidziro yemagetsi ekuChina kupinda muPacific.

Mune mamwe mazwi, kubva panguva yekupedzisira Trump ari musimba uye nekuti yakawedzera kusawirirana pakati peUS neChina, uye US neNorth Korea, kukosha kwehunyanzvi hwekuva nehukama hwakanaka neJapan uye kuchengetedza zvigadziko zveUS pavhu reJapan zvakangowedzera.

Ishiba Shigeru achaedza kuita kuti mubatanidzwa weQUAD uve nezvaunoreva (kuva nemazino akawanda) nekukoka vamwe vatori vechikamu vatatu (India, Australia neUS) kudzamisa kuzvipira kwavo kwekuchengetedza kune mumwe nemumwe. Australia, nekuda kwehuwandu hwemari uye hudiki hwehupfumi hunogona kuedza kunyengetedza dzimwe nhengo mbiri dzeAUKUS (kureva, Britain neUnited States) kuti Japan inofanira kukokwa kuti ibatane neAUKUS kuti iite JAUKUS.

Ishiba achangobva kufona NATO kuwedzera charter yayo kuti ibatanidze kuchengetedzwa kwekumadokero kwePacific. Haisi pfungwa itsva asi munharaunda yanhasi iyo US haina chokwadi kuti inofanira kupatsanura sei kutarisa kwayo pakati peEurope neIndo-Pacific, haisi yekutanga.

Zvakangodaro, zvese zvakurukurwa pamusoro zvinozoita kuti Japan ive nehukama hwakanaka uye hunobudirira nehutongi hwaTrump II.

EUROPE, JERMAN NENATO

Pakati pevanodyidzana, Europe ndiyo yakanyanya kukuvadzwa mukukunda kwaTrump. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti

1. Hondo dzekutengeserana neEU iyo Trump inoda kutangazve;
2. Mutemo wake waakataura wokusapa mari kuhondo yeUkraine neRussia inoenderera mberi (panzvimbo iyoyo Trump ine chinangwa chekunyengerera Ukraine kuti igadzirise kusawirirana kwayo neRussia);
3. Kusava nehanya kwake neNATO; uye
4. Iye murambi weClimate Change.

Zvirinani, panguva ino EU inoratidzika kunge yakanyatso gadzirira zviviri zvezvina zvataurwa pamusoro apa. Nekutya kukunda kwaTrump, EU iri pasi pehutungamiriri hwaUrsula von der Leyen yanga ichishanda chinyararire pamhinduro dzayo kumitero yaTrump.

Mumusangano wavo wekutanga wevatungamiri veNATO, VaTrump vakanetsa nhengo dzekuEurope dzeNATO akadzidaidza kufa uye vatasvi vakasununguka pane simba reAmerica. Chikonzero chehasha dzake chaive icho

muna 2014 nhengo dzeNATO dzakanga dzazvipira kusangana 2% yeGDP gwara (yakabvumiranwa muna 2006) asi havasi vazhinji vaizadzisa chinangwa. ZvaTrump kuzvidza NATO yakanyorwa zvakanaka.

Parizvino, NATO ine 32 nhengo nyika (kusanganisira nhengo mbiri itsva: Finland neSweden). Muna 2024, Nhengo makumi maviri nenhatu dziri kutarisirwa kusangana kana kudarika chinangwa chekudyara ingangoita 2% yeGDP mukudzivirira, zvichienzaniswa neVatatu Vakabatana chete muna 2014.

Nekudaro, Hondo yeUkraine-Russia yakaratidza kuti Europe inoda kuve yakazvimiririra uye inokwanisa kudzivirira yayo yekuseri. Kufarira kweUS mukudzivirira kweEurope kunongopera sezvo ichitarisa kuve neChina. Izvi zvinoda kuendesa zvimwe zviwanikwa kumatunhu eIndo-Pacific neSouth Pacific. Izvi, zvakare, zvichareva kuti US ichada kuwedzera mari yekudzivirira (iyo yanga yakapfava mumakore eBiden).

Kubva mukubata kwavo kwekare naTrump, vatungamiriri veEU vanoziva kuti kupfuura chero chinhu chipi zvacho VaTrump vanoda ruremekedzo uye kubata kumeso. Anosarudzawo vatungamiri vakasimba. Izvi zvinogona kunge zviri zvikonzero pakusarudza aimbove Mutungamiriri weDutch Mark Rutte semunyori-mukuru weNATO aiwirirana naTrump panguva yake yekutanga.

Hutungamiri hwaTrump II hwauya panguva yakaoma zvikuru kuGermany. Iyo yekupedzisira haina kugadzikana mune zvematongerwo enyika: Chancellor weGerman Olaf Scholz nguva pfupi yadarika akadzinga Gurukota rezvemari, Christian Lindner, kuputsa hurumende yemubatanidzwa. Germany, hupfumi hukuru muEurope, haingodi chete kushandisa yakawanda pakudzivirira asi inofanirwa kushandisa mari yakawanda mukugadzirisa zvivakwa zvayo uye hupfumi. Inofanirwa kuita izvi uye kuzadzisa zvisungo zvayo zvekugara zvakanaka kune vagari vayo uye vagari vekunze vasingatyore mirau yezvikwereti inotungamirwa neEU. Kupfuurirazve, hondo ichangopera muUkraine, iyo yekupedzisira ichada mari inokatyamadza yekuvakazve. IUS inotarisira kuti EU (verenga Germany) kupa mari iyi zvinodiwa pakuvaka patsva.

PARIS CIMATE ACCORD

Sezvakangoita panguva yake yekutanga temu, tinogona kutarisira kuti US ichaburitsa muParis Climate Accord. VaTrump nemunyori wezvemagetsi akasarudzwa, Chris Wright, vanowanzodaidza Kuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze se "nhema".

Nguva yekupedzisira Trump paakabuda mairi, dzimwe nyika hadzina kutevedzera kutungamira kwake. Iye zvino vanhu vepasi rose vakatodzidza zvakanyanya nezvenjodzi dzekudziya kwepasi. Mumba, VaTrump varatidza chishuwo chavo chekubvisa zvizere Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Ini ndinokahadzika kuti achabudirira here muchinangwa chake nekuti vavhoti vevamiriri veGOP vakawanda muLower House vanobatsirwa nemapurojekiti akasiyana-siyana anopihwa mari kana kutsigirwa neMutemo uyu. Nekudaro, isu tinogona kutarisira kubviswa zvishoma kweMutemo uyu.

Kunze kwemari yakagoverwa pasi peInflation Reduction Act, panguva ino Trump ichauya ichirwisana nezvipingamupinyi zvitatu: (a) simba rinoshandiswazve, kunyanya simba rezuva, rakachipa zvikuru kupfuura magetsi anogadzirwa nemafuta efosi; (b) Elon Musk, mumwe wevatsigiri vaTrump, akaita pfuma yake nekutengesa motokari dzemagetsi (kunyangwe asingavimbi navo ikozvino). Zvinoreva kuti tinogona kutarisira kupokana kunotyisa muWhite House's Cabinet Room pane iyi nyaya; (c) madutu arikurova nzvimbo dzemumahombekombe eUS uye hinterland parizvino haasi kungowanda chete asiwo akakura uye ane simba rakawanda. Nekuda kweizvozvo, tinogona kutarisira inishuwarenzi uye makambani einishuwarenzi kuti akumbire iyo Trump Administration kuti irege kumisa nhanho dzeBiden paKuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze.

ASEAN UYE IDO-PACIFIC REGION

Trump haadi nyika huru (= hupfumi) uye kana mapoka akasimba enyika (semuenzaniso, European Union). Nokuti haakwanisi kuvamanikidza (kana kuvadheerera) nyore nyore kugamuchira chibvumirano chaangave achivapa. Matunhu akadaro/masangano ane simba rekutsiva.

Nhengo dzeAssociation of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) hadzisi kutyisidzira kwakadaro kuna Trump. Idzi dzose inyika diki dzenzvimbo. Pamwe chete nyika dzeASEAN dzakakonzera kutengeserana kwakasara kuUS kweinenge $ 200 mabhiriyoni 2022. Vietnam neThailand ndidzo dzinotungamira kutengeserana kukuru kwasara.

Peter Navarro, aimbove mubatsiri akavimbika zvakanyanya uye akasarudzwa kuve chipangamazano mukuru wekutengeserana nekugadzira, aisazonetsekana pakuwana chibvumirano chekutengeserana nenyika dzeASEAN chinogutsa hurongwa hwekutengeserana hwaPresident Trump.

Zvakadaro, kushushikana kwaPresident Trump nemitero uye kushomeka kwekutengesa kune mukana wekukanganisa kubata kwavo neChina. Kunyanya saka panguva ino iyo Trump II Administration ichave yakawedzera hawkish, inotarirwa kutasva roughshod pamusoro pezvibvumirano izvo Trump angafunga kuti ane kushomeka kwehukoshi.

China ndiyo inonyanya kutengeserana mudyidzani yeimwe neimwe yenyika gumi dzeASEAN. VaTrump II havangade kuti China ive nesimba rakawanda pamatongerwo avo ekunze pane zvayakatoita. Kunze kwePhilippine (iyo US ine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement), Trump II ichada kusimudzira hukama hwakasimba hwekuchengetedza (zvisina kurongeka kana zviri pamutemo) nenyika dzeASEAN kuti ive neChina. Izvi zvinogona kuzoita kuti Europe neNATO vatore mutoro wakakura wekuchengetedza kwavo. Kana kushandisa mutauro waTrump ivo vanofanirwa kubhadhara kuzvidzivirira kwavo uye kwete kungotsamira kuUS.

Nyika zhinji dziri muSouth-East Asia dzinofarira Asia ine runyararo uye dzisingade kuona mubatanidzwa wenyika dzakawanda wakafanana neNATO asi dzisingapokane nehurongwa hwemamini-lateral hwakagadziridzwa nechinangwa chakaita seQUAD, AUKUS, chibvumirano chekuchengetedza pakati peUS nePhilippine, etc.

Zvakangodaro, kana uchibata nenyika dzeSouth East Asia, US ichada kungwarira sezvo nyika zhinji mudunhu dzichinetsana nemuganho nevavakidzani vadzo. China ine miganhu yelandline kana maritime nenyika gumi nenhanhatu. Uye ine gakava remuganho nevavakidzani vayo vese (kunze kweRussia iyo yayakagadzirisa munguva pfupi yapfuura).

Gore rega rega, Sydney-based Lowy Institute inodzokorora chimwe chezvishandiso zvayo, iyo Asia Power Index. Chinangwa cheindekisi iyi ndechekutarisa simba rakapfava uye rakaomarara uye masimba ekufungidzira masimba enyika dziri mudunhu uye zvido zvedunhu rino. Iyo yazvino edition yeIndex inoratidza kuti Indo-Pacific inotongwa nemasimba maviri: iyo US neChina.

Nyika dziri mudunhu dzinoziva chishuvo cheChina chekutonga Asia, kureva, kuve simba rehegemonistic muAsia. Izvo zvakare zvinoonekwa kubva kune yayo Itsva Security Concept kana dzidziso. Munguva yeTrump I Administration, chiitiko ichi chakatungamira kukuvandudzwa kwehurongwa hwekuchengetedza pakati peUS nePhilippine. Nechikonzero chimwe chete takaona kutenderera kwakananga kuWashington mune yekune dzimwe nyika mutemo weVietnam. Ukuwo, Cambodia iri kuswedera pedyo neChina.

Kana nyika idzi dzikava nehanya nemaitiro eChina, nyika dzeASEAN dzichamanikidzwa kusarudza pakati pezviviri zvinotevera: kuvandudza chinangwa chakanangana nekubatana kweminilateral mibatanidzwa yakafanana neQUAD neUS kana kuumba chivakwa chedziviriro chakafanana neNATO kana yakanzi "Asian NATO" neJapan PM Ishiba Shigeru.

Hapana imwe yenyika gumi dzeASEAN dzakagadzikana nekusangana kwakavhurika neChina. Nekuda kweizvozvo, isu tinokwanisa kufunga mamwe mibatanidzwa midiki senge QUAD inomera mudunhu rino.

TAIWAN

Apo Trump inotaura nezveTaiwan anonyanya kutaura zvinhu zviviri zvinotevera: (a) sei Taiwan isingabhadhare kuzvidzivirira kwayo; uye (b) kuti Taiwan yakaparadza sei America's semiconductor (chip) industry. Muna 2022 mubvunzurudzo paCBS 60 Minutes, Biden akataura pachena kuti iyo US ichauya kuzobatsira Taiwan kana yakarwiswa neChina. Ko Trump II achaita zvimwe chete paanenge achirairwa kuti US anogona kusakunda muhondo uye ingarasikirwa nemari yakawanda kwazvo yemidziyo yayo yehondo?

VAISRAERI, VAPESTINA NEKUMVAMBERI ZVIRI MUKATI

VaTrump naMarco Rubio vanotsigira vakasimba veIsrael, kunyanya vaBenjamin Netanyahu. Saka tinogona kutarisira kubatwa kwakaomarara kwevaPalestine vanogara kuGaza Strip kana kuWest Bank, kugadzwa kwemamwe misha yevaJuda uye kuzadzikiswa kwechiroto chaNetanyahu cheIsrael yakakura icho chinosanganisira zvese zviri zviviri Gaza Strip neWest Bank.

Kana Netanyahu akabudirira muzvinangwa zvake zverevanchist ipapo kunyangwe aine simba rakakwana Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (Muchinda weSaudi Arabia Crown Prince) uye maEmir eGulf States angazviwana zvakaoma kusaina pachibvumirano chaAbrahamu. Muchidimbu, Middle East icharamba isina kugadzikana uye yakagadzirira kushandiswa kwezvematongerwo enyika neRussia neChina.

THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (ICC)

Kusimba kwekutsigira kwaTrump kuIsrael, kunyanya kwaNetanyahu, kunogona kutongwa nechikamu ichi. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, dare reHague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) rakapa mvumo yekusungwa kwaNetanyahu neaimbova Gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa, Yoav Gallant. VaTrump nevazhinji vevatsigiri vake vakataura izvozvo vachatendera nyika ipi neipi iyo inoshanda pamawarandi eICC. Vatiwo vachamira kupa NATO mari kana paine nhengo dzayo dzakaita sezviri kudiwa neICC. Mune mamwe mazwi, US yakagadzirira kupa zvisina basa uye kuparadza ICC kuchengetedza Netanyahu. Zvakawanda zvekutonga-kwakavakirwa kurongeka.

UNITED NATIONS ORGANIZATION (UNO)

Sepanguva yake yekutanga, UN inogona kutarisira kushungurudzwa nehutongi hwaTrump II. Akasarudza Elise Stefanik kuti ave mumiriri weUnited States kuUN. Stefanik agara achitsoropodza UN. Akapomera UN nekupokana nekushoropodza misha yeIsrael muWest Bank, uye muna Gumiguru, makumi maviri nemana, akadana "zvakakwana. kuongororwazve kwemari yeUS yeUnited Nations.” Stefanik akatanga basa rake rezvematongerwo enyika ari mukuru weRepublican asi iye zvino ave mubatsiri waTrump. Akapinda mubato rakaedza kupidigura zvakabuda musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dza2020.

INDIA

Dhipatimendi rekugadzira reIndia nderimwe reakadzivirirwa zvakanyanya pasi rose. Zvinoenderana nedata razvino rinowanikwa mune zvemari 2023-24, kutengeserana kweIndo-US kwakasvika mabhiriyoni zana nemakumi maviri emadhora neIndia ichiona yakasara ye35.3 bhiriyoni.

Asi pamberi pekutengeserana, dzingave dzisiri dzese nhau dzakaipa kuIndia. Inyika yedemocracy uye inonyanya kunyorera kuWest maonero epasirese, saka, zvinokwanisika kuti sezvakaita panguva yaTrump I, makambani eUS anopedzisa nzvimbo dzawo dzekugadzira muChina anogona kushamwaridzana navo muIndia. India inoonekwa sehupfumi huri kukura nekukurumidza. Saka izvi zvichaitawo kuti India ive nzvimbo inoyevedza.

India nedzimwe nyika dzakawanda muSouth Asia neSouth-East Asia dzinosarudza Asia ine rugare. India, ichitevera gwara rakareba rakagadzirwa naNehru pakutanga kweCold War mukutanga 1950s, haizombove chikamu chehurongwa hwemubatanidzwa seNATO muEurope asi haizopokana nemini-lateral hurongwa hwekutarisira zvinangwa seQUAD, AUKUS, chibvumirano chekuchengetedza pakati peUS nePhilippine, nezvimwe.

Munguva yetemu yekutanga yaTrump, hukama hweIndo-US hwakaramba huchikura uye maitiro achaenderera mberi. Hukama hwenyika mbiri hune simba rahwo asi hunokurudzirwawo nezvimwe zvinhu zviviri: (a) makwikwi ehurongwa pakati peUS neChina (pamusoro peChina, Trump haambopomera India kuti haisi kuita zvinorema sezvaanoita neNATO); uye (b) India yaisada kuti Russia itange hukama hwepedyo neChina semari yeIndia (chimwe chinhu chiriwo mukufarirwa neUS).

Tichifunga nezvekubatikana kwaVaTrump nevabvakure, zvinogoneka kuti vagari vekuIndia vanoshanda kwenguva pfupi vanogona kuve nzvimbo yekunetsana pakati penyika mbiri idzi.

AUSTRALIA, AUKUS NENYIKA DZESOUTH PACIFIC ISLAND

Australia inoita kushomeka kukuru kwekutengeserana neUS, kureva kuti Australia inotenga kunze kupfuura yainotumira kuUS. Iyo zvakare ine chibvumirano chemahara chekutengeserana (FTA) neUS. Mumwe angatarisira kuti zvinhu zviviri izvi zvichadzivirira Australia kubva kumitero yaTrump.

Zvakadaro, Australia inogona kukanganiswa zvisina kunanga nekuda kwehondo yekutengeserana pakati peChina neUS. Hupfumi hweAustralia hunogona kukanganiswa zvakanyanya nekukwira kwemitengo, kukwira kwemitengo, kukwira kwehupfumi muUS, kusimba kweUS $ uye chero kudzikira muChina.

About chikamu chimwe muzvishanu chezvinotengeswa neAustralia kuChina dzinoendeswa kune dzimwe nyika zvakare. Pakati pehupfumi hwepamusoro, Australia ine kuratidzwa kwepamusoro kune kudiwa kwemba kweChinese. Kudzikira muChina kungangokanganisawo Australia nekuti zvaizoreva kudzika kwemitengo yezvinhu.

Zvinonyanya kuitika kuti urongwa hweAUKUS huchafarira kutsigirwa kwehutungamiri hweTrump II hunouya, kunyanya nekuda kwezvikonzero zvitatu: inonyatsotarirwa kuChina; iri mini-lateral initiative senge QUAD uye mubatanidzwa nePhilippine; uye Australia iri kuisa mari munzvimbo dzengarava dzemuUS kuti dziwedzere kubereka.

Australia neUS, nerutsigiro rweFiji, icharamba ichirwisa pesvedzero yeChina pakati penyika dzeSouth Pacific Island. Nekudaro, Australia neUS dzingave nedambudziko mukunyengetedza New Zealand kuti itore chikamu mune ichi chiitiko pane kuve muoni.

Chiverengwa

Kunyangwe kazhinji aishandisa matauriro asina hunyanzvi, VaTrump, panguva yavo yekutanga, aive mutungamiri wezvematongerwo enyika aibudirira aifarira mufananidzo mukuru kana maonero echikopokopo ezwi pachinzvimbo chekutungamira mutemo wekunze. Kubva Jimmy Carter, Trump aive mutungamiri wekutanga asina kutungamira US muhondo itsva. Vakaona kuti kusimukira kweChina kunotyisidzira budiriro yeUS uye basa rayo rechinyakare munyaya dzepasi rose, chinhu chakaonekwa zvakanyanya kunyangwe panguva yekutanga yeHutungamiri hwaObama asi VaObama vakatadza kugadzirisa. Imhaka yechikwereti chaBiden kuti haana kungotevedzera marongero aVaTrump kuChina asi akawedzera kuvasimbisa.

VaTrump vahwina masimba zvakare apo nyika yasiyana zvakanyanya nezvayaive panguva yavo yekutanga. China ine simba zvakanyanya muchiuto. Iyo ine hukama hwakasimba nevese vavengi veUS: Russia, North Korea, uye Iran. Pepa reUS remari yakawedzera kupera simba (izvo, zvinosiririsa, zvichawedzera kupera simba pasi peTrump II). Nemari yakakweretwa, iri kutsigira hondo mbiri: imwe muUkraine uye imwe iri kuMiddle East.

Kukunda kwaTrump kunoreva kudzokororwa kwehurongwa hwepasi rose. Anouya pamasimba aine mvumo yekuwana chibvumirano chekugadzirisa kuhondo yeUkraine-Russia uye ane nekukanganisa China. Tinogona kutarisira shanduko mumaitiro eUS kune NATO. Mune mamwe mazwi, nyika dzeEurope dzinofanirwa kutora mutoro mukuru wekuchengetedza kwavo kuitira kuti US itarise kumatunhu eIndo-Pacific neSouth-Pacific. Pasi pehutongi hwechipiri hwaTrump, India, Japan neAustralia vanogona kukurudzirwa kurongedza simba ravo rakapfava uye rakaoma kuti rive neChina. VaTrump II vachadawo kutora matanho ane musoro kusunungura banga rinobatanidza Russia neChina parizvino. Mukudzoka Russia inogona kuvimbisa kusaendesa tekinoroji yemauto kuChina.

*Vidya S. Sharma inopa zano vatengi nezvenyika uye geopolitical njodzi uye tekinoroji-yakavakirwa majoint ventures. Akapa zvinyorwa zvakawanda zvemapepanhau ane mukurumbira se: EU Reporter, The Canberra Times, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age (Melbourne), The Australian Financial Review, East Asia Forum, The Economic Times (India), The Business Standard (India), The Business Line (Chennai, India), The Hindustan Times (India), The Financial Express (India), The Daily Caller (US). Anogona kufonerwa pa: [email inodzivirirwa].

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