Trump uye rugare muSouth Caucasus

Musi wa8 Nyamavhuvhu, mutungamiri weAmerica, VaDonald Trump, vakaita musangano muWashington DC weMutungamiriri weArmenia, Nikol Pashinyan, uye mutungamiri weAzerbaijan, Ilyam Aliev. Musangano uyu ndiwo wazvino uno kuedza kwaTrump kuti aonekwe semugadziri werunyararo akananga kuchinangwa chekugamuchira mubairo weNobel Peace Prize. Huwandu hwehondo dzinonzi naTrump dzakagadzirisa huri kuramba huchikwira kubva pa6 kusvika pa7 uye dzinosanganisira muCongo, Egypt neEthiopia, neIndia nePakistan. Mitero yeUS kuIndia inopfuura makumi mashanu muzana inoonekwa nevakawanda sekutsamwa kwaTrump pakuramba kweMutungamiriri weIndia, Narendra Modi, iyo US yakabatsira mukupedza hondo yenyika yavo nePakistan. anonyora Taras Kuzio.

Nehurombo, kugadzirisa hombe - hondo yeRussia paUkraine - inoenderera mberi nekunzvenga Trump.

VaTrump havambofa vakakwiridzirwa nemutungamiri wenyika VaBarack Obama avo vakawana mubairo muna 2009 wekusimudzira kusapararira kwenyukireya. VaTrump vakachengetera VaObama chigumbu kubva muna 2011 apo vaibvunza kuti vakambove mutungamiri wenyika here uye nekudaro vanga vasingakodzeri kuve mutungamiri wenyika akazvarirwa muAmerica. VaObama vakaberekerwa kuHawaii mudunhu reAmerica.

VaTrump vakapinda muhondo yeArmenian-Azerbaijani makore mashanu mushure mekunge chokwadi chepasi chachinja mukufarira kwaBaku. Muna 2020, Azerbaijani yakahwina Hondo yemazuva makumi mana nemana yechipiri yeKarabakh uye yakatorazve kutonga pamusoro penzvimbo dzayo zhinji dzaive dzakatorwa neArmenia kweanoda kusvika makumi matatu emakore. Makore matatu gare gare hondo pfupi yezuva rimwe yakapedza ikoku apo Azerbaijan yakatora udzori hweKarabakh iyo yakanga iri muzinda wokuparadzana kweArmenia.

Nhaurirano pamusoro pekuisa chokwadi ichi pasi mugwaro repamutemo, chibvumirano cherunyararo chemashure, chapfuura nemafungu mana.

Yekutanga, iyo yakareba, yaive nhaurirano pakati peMutungamiriri wePashinyan neMutungamiri Aliyev. Mukati mehurukuro idzi, Azerbaijan yakatsvaka kukurira chitendero che'Armenia huru' iyo iri musimboti wourudzi hweArmenia uye kuchitsiva nekuzvipira kuChiziviso chaDecember 21, 1991, Alma Ata Declaration. Bva, marepublic eSoviet akanga abvuma kuvakira miganhu yadzo yenyika yose pamiganhu yerepublic muUSSR.

Nyika 12 pa15 dzeSoviet dzakasaina Chiziviso cheAlma Ata: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, uye Uzbekistan. Georgia haina kuita apo nyika nhatu dzeBaltic dzeLithuania, Latvia neEstonia dzakanga dzatosiya USSR.

Vaviri vakasaina - Russia uye Armenia - vakafuratira zvisungo zvavo uye vakatevera kusaremekedza vavakidzani vavo. Pakupera kwa1991, Armenia yakanga yatowedzera kukunda kwayo kwechikamu chechishanu cheAzerbaijan uko kwaizogara kusvika 2020. Russia yaikurudzira kupatsanurwa muAzerbaijan, Georgia neMoldova neUkraine, uye yakapinda muGeorgia muna 2008 neUkraine muna 2014 na2022.

Naizvozvo chimiro cheAzerbaijan chakanga chiri kutsvaka kupwisa Armenia kuti iremekedze zvayakanga yasaina muAlma Ata muna 1991. Kunyange zvakadaro, Prime Minister Pashinyan akakweva zvitsitsinho zvake kwamakore akawanda.

Save yechipiri yaigara iri nzira yekuenda kupi. Muna Mbudzi 2020, Russia yakanga yaita chibvumirano chekumisa kurwa neArmenia neAzerbaijan kwete nekuti Vladimir Putin aive nechinangwa chekugamuchira mubairo weNobel Peace Prize asi nekuti Russia yaigona kuramba ichitonga South Caucasus kuburikidza nekuunzwa kwemauto anonzi 'kuchengetedza runyararo'.

Mauto eRussia 'anochengetedza runyararo' akapera basa nekuda kwezvinhu zviviri zvakaitika zvakangoitika panguva imwe chete. Yekutanga yaive yekupinda zvizere kweRussia muUkraine muna Kukadzi 24, 2022, zvakakonzera kuti mauto aya 'ekuchengetedza runyararo' adiwe muhondo umo Russia yaitambura nekufa kwakanyanya. Chechipiri ndechekuti vakave vasina basa mushure mekunge Azerbaijan yatorazve hutongi munaGunyana 2023 yenzvimbo dzayo dzese dzaive dzakagarwa.

Mutungamiriri wenyika Pashinyan akashoropodza kusaita kweRussia muna 2020 na2023, achitenda kuti Moscow yaifanira kupindira pakutanga pasi penhengo yenyika yake yeCSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) uye yechipiri se'vachengeti vorugare.' Kusada kweKremlin kupindira mumakakatanwa matatu - Armenia-Azerbaijan, kupidigura hurumende yeSyria yeAssad neTurkey, neIsrael-Iran, kwainyanya kuratidza hondo yekurwisa Ukraine ichimanikidza kugona kweRussia kupurinda nzvimbo yayanozvida yekumanikidza uye kudzivirira allis.

Save rechitatu raive European Union (EU) iyo muna 2022-2023 yakatsvaga kufambisa nhaurirano dzerunyararo pakati peMutungamiriri Pashinyan neMutungamiri Aliyev. Kusiyana neRussia, iyo yaitsvaga kuchengetedza South Caucasus mukati meiyo yakazvizivisa yeEurasian sphere yesimba, kana iyo US, iyo ine mutemo wekunze unotungamirwa nehunhu hwaTrump, EU haigone kushoropodzwa nekuda kwekutsvaga runyararo muSouth Caucasus nekuda kwezvikonzero zvisiri izvo. IEU yakanga yachengeta kufarira kushoma kwezvematongerwo enyika muSouth Caucasus kunze kweGeorgia iyo yakanga yatsvaga nhengo dzeNATO neEU. Asi mutemo weGeorgia wepro-Western wokune dzimwe nyika wakavharwa neakawanda-vector pragmatism pasi peGeorgian-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili uyo akatonga nyika kubva muna 2012.

Kubudirira kumwe chete kweEU kwaive kukurudzira Prime Minister Pashinyan kuti varambe vari mugwara mukutsvaga runyararo nekucherechedza miganhu yenyika yakavakirwa paSoviet republic. Iyo EU de facto yakateedzera Azerbaijan-yakareba chinzvimbo.

Mhedzisiro yekupedzisira yakatungamirwa neUS iyo yakapinda muhurongwa mushure memakore mashanu enhaurirano mbiri, kusawirirana kweRussia neRussia, uye kushaya simba kweEU. Zvakadaro, iyo US yakaunza zvinhu zviviri zvakakosha patafura.

Yekutanga yaive iyo US yakazvimisikidza kuSouth Caucasus kwayakange yadzokera pasi pasi pePresident Obama naJoe Biden apo US yanga iri sachigaro weOSCE Minsk Group yakavambwa muna 1992 kuyananisa gakava reArmenian-Azerbaijani. Kuvapo kweUS kwakapa chivimbo kune yakakura uye ine simba yeArmenian-America diaspora iyo yagara iri pro-Russian uye anti-Turkish.

Wechipiri aiva Trump akabatsira Armenia neAzerbaijan kugadzirisa mubvunzo wekufambisa kwemakiromita makumi mana emakiromita pakati peAzerbaijan nenharaunda yeAzerbaijan yeNakhichevan inoyambuka ruwa rweArmenian rweSyunik. Iyo Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) ichashandiswa pasi peArmenia, uye US icharegedzera nyika kumubatanidzwa wezvivakwa uye manejimendi.

The chibvumirano chakasainwa muWashington akati: 'Zvakasimbisa kuti miganhu iri pakati peSoviet Socialist Republics yeyaichimbova USSR yakava miganhu yepasi rose yenyika dzakazvimiririra uye yave ichizivikanwa seyakadaro nenzanga yepasi pose, Mapato anobvuma uye acharemekedza uchangamire, kuvimbika kwenzvimbo, kusaputswa kwemiganhu yenyika uye kuzvimirira kwezvematongerwo enyika kweumwe neumwe.' Zvakanga zvatora hondo mbiri uye makore mashanu ehurukuro kuti Armenia iremekedze Alma Ata Declaration iyo yakanga yasaina makore 34 apfuura.

Iyo chete nyaya yakasarudzika ndeyekubviswa kwenzvimbo yekuda kuKarabakh mubumbiro reArmenia. Mushure memusangano weWashington, Prime Minister Pashinyan vati vanoda kuvandudza bumbiro remitemo iro rakanzi rishandurwe muna 2027. Shanduko dzichavhoterwa kuburikidza nereferendamu. Prime Minister Pashinyan akati 'runyararo rwakavambwa pakati peRepublic of Armenia neRepublic of Azerbaijan zvichitevera musangano weWashington uyo mukuona kwake wakavhara mubvunzo weKarabakh.

Kuvharwa kwehondo yeArmenian neAzerbaijan muenzaniso wezvingaitwa muMoldova, Georgia, neUkraine. Chekutanga, pro-Russian proxies uye mauto eRussia anofanirwa kukundwa. Chechipiri, kupindira kweRussia kunonetsa uye kupatsanura uye kutonga mitemo kunofanirwa kusendekwa parutivi. Chechitatu, Russia inofanirwa kumanikidzwa kubvuma, seArmenia, kuremekedza yakasaina paAlma Ata Declaration iyo yakaziva miganhu yeSoviet republic semiganhu yenyika. Chechina, EU uye kunyanya US inofanirwa kubatanidzwa kutora hurongwa hwerunyararo pamusoro pemutsara.

Taras Kuzio ndiye purofesa wesainzi yezvematongerwo enyika paNational University yeKyiv Mohyla Academy. Ndiye co-editor of Russia uye Yemazuvano Fascism: Maonero Matsva paHondo yeKremlin Kurwisa Ukraine (Columbia University Press, 2025); mubatanidzwa we Midzi mina yeHondo yeRussia neUkraine (Cambridge University Press, 2025); Crimea: Kwakatanga Hondo yeRussia uye uko Ukraine Ichakunda (Jamestown Foundation, 2024), uye Russian Nationalism uye Hondo yeRussia-Ukrainian (Routledge, 2022).

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