Kukura kusava netariro muEurope nezvehondo yeRussia-Ukraine

Kune kuwedzera kusava netariro muEurope pamusoro pehondo yeRussia-Ukraine, uye kutya kuti Donald Trump anokunda musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika yeAmerica gore rino achaita kuti kukunda kweUkraine kuve "kushoma", sekureva kwetsvakiridzo yenyika dzakawanda yakabudiswa nhasi neEuropean. Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Mamiriro ezvinhu aya achaita kuti kuda kutsanangura runyararo “nzvimbo yehondo yakaoma”, kwete musarudzo dziri kuuya dzemuEurope chete, asi nekunetsana kwacho. Kuti varambe vachiita nyaya yekunyengerera kuti vatsigire Ukraine, vatungamiriri veEU vanozofanira kushandura chirevo chavo kuti vasaonekwe sezvisingaite kune veruzhinji vanopokana.

Nhoroondo ye ECFR report yazvino, 'Hondo neSarudzo: Vatungamiri veEurope vanogona sei kuchengetedza rutsigiro rweruzhinji rweUkraine', rakanyorwa nenyanzvi dzezvekune dzimwe nyika, Ivan Krastev naMark Leonard, uye rinokwevera paYouGov neDatapraxis ruzivo rwevanhu kubva kunyika gumi nembiri dziri nhengo dzeEU (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain uye Sweden), yakaitwa muna Ndira 12. Chinangwa chemushumo ndechekunzwisisa mamiriro ezvino maonero pamusoro peUkraine uye kuisa mberi zano rekuti vatungamiriri veEU vanogona sei kuita nyaya yekutsigirwa kweEuropean kuKiv munzvimbo yakaoma. 

Sarudzo iyi inoratidza mufananidzo wakavhengana - uine imwe nzvimbo yekutarisira uye mamwe matambudziko anozoda kuverengerwa kana vatungamiriri voita nyaya yekuenderera mberi kana kuwedzera rutsigiro rweKyiv. Kunyange 10% chete yevaEurope iko zvino vachitenda kuti Ukraine ichakunda muhondo, ruzhinji rwevaEurope havasi mumhepo yekufadzwa uye kune kutsigirwa kwakapararira kwekuchengetedza, uye kuwedzera, mazinga erubatsiro rweEurope kuKyiv kana pakaitika mutemo weUS. pivot.

Vanyori vanyori vemushumo, Ivan Krastev naMark Leonard, vanocherekedza akati wandei maitiro mukati meiyi dataset anofanirwa kukanganisa kutaurirana kwezvematongerwo enyika munguva iri kuuya. Kutanga, kuziva kuti hondo yeRussia muUkraine zvino inonyanya kuonekwa sehondo yeEurope, iyo veEurope vane basa; chechipiri, kusava netariro kana zvasvika kumugumisiro wehondo, uye kana Ukraine inogona kuwana kukunda munhandare yehondo; chechitatu, kugadziridzwa kwerutsigiro rweKyiv pakati pevavakidzani vayo, kusanganisira Poland, uko pfungwa yekubatana yatanga kuderera, inopesana nemafungiro munyika dziri kure, sePortugal neFrance, uko kutsigirwa kunoratidzika kusimba kunoshamisa; uye, chechina, kuti Trump mhedzisiro yezvematongerwo enyika pasi rose yatove kuenderera, kunyangwe isati yasimbiswa kuti achakwanisa kutungamira mushandirapamwe wekudzokera kuWhite House.

Zvakakosha zvakawanikwa kubva muongororo yazvino yeECFR zvinosanganisira:

• Kune kuwedzera kusava netariro muEurope pamusoro pemhedzisiro yehondo. 
• Vangori 10% yevakapindura, paavhareji munyika gumi nembiri dzakaongororwa, zvino vanotenda kuti Ukraine ichakunda Russia - nepo kaviri (20%) vachifanotaura kukunda kweRussia mukukonana. Kuwedzera kuvimba muhondo yeUkraine kunoonekwa muEurope yese, uye, kunyangwe munyika dzenhengo dzine tariro dzakaongororwa (Poland, Sweden, nePortugal) isingasviki mumwe muvashanu (17%) vanotenda Kyiv inogona kukunda. Munyika dzese, maonero akatanhamara (akagovaniswa ne37%, paavhareji) nderekuti kugadzirisana pakati peUkraine neRussia kucharatidza.

• Tsigiro yeUkraine yakafaranuka muEurope, kunyangwe paine dzimwe nyika uko vazhinji vangada kusundira Kyiv kuti ibvume kugadzirisa. 
• Munyika nhatu - Sweden, Portugal nePoland - pane kufarira kutsigira Ukraine mukurwisa kudzosera nharaunda yayo (50%, 48%, uye 47%, zvichiteerana). Mune mamwe mashanu - anosanganisira yakavakidzana neHungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%), Romania (50%), neAustria (49%) - pane sarudzo yakajeka yekumanikidza Kyiv kuti ibvume kugadzirisa. Kune imwe nzvimbo, ruzhinji rwakakamurwa, kusanganisira muFrance (35% fight back vs. 30% negotiate kugadzirisa), Germany (32% vs. 41%), Netherlands (34% vs. 37%), neSpain (35% vs. 33%).

• Vazhinji vanoona hondo yeUkraine seyaivepo kuEurope.
• Paakabvunzwa kuti ndeipi kurwisana - pakati pehondo yeGaza, inosanganisira Israel neHamas, uye hondo yeUkraine - yakave nemigumisiro yakawanda pa'nyika' yavo uye 'Europe', 33% ne29%, vakasarudza Ukraine. Izvi zvinopesana ne5% uye 5% chete, zvichiteerana, kusarudza kupokana muGaza. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti veEurope vari kuwedzera kududzira hondo muUkraine, uye mhedzisiro yayo, seyakakosha mudunhu uye imwe yavari kuita.

• VeEurope vanoona kudzoka kwaDonald Trump kuWhite House se "kuodza mwoyo".
•  56% yevachapindura ongororo yeECFR “vachaodzwa mwoyo zvakanyanya” kana “kuodzwa mwoyo zvikuru” dai Donald Trump akasarudzwa zvakare semutungamiri weAmerica. Hungary ndiyo chete yaibuda pamaonero aya. Pano, 27% vakaratidza kuti 'vachafadzwa' nezvakabuda izvi ukuwo 31% vakati 'vaizoodzwa mwoyo'. Avo vane tariro yekukunda kwaTrump vanoumba ruzhinji pakati pevatsigiri vebato guru rezvematongerwo enyika - Fidesz - munyika dzakaongororwa. Pakati pemamwe mapoka ekurudyi, aimbonzwira tsitsi aimbove mutungamiri wenyika, angangoita chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chevatsigiri veGermany Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ) wekuAustria, kana kuti Fratelli d'Italia weItaly aizo "fara" nekudzoka kwake - uye manzwiro haasati asimba pakati pevatsigiri veFrance's Rassemblement National (RN) nePoland's Law and Justice mapato.

• Pane kutya kuti Donald Trump achakanganisa nzira yehondo uye kuita kukunda kweUkraine "zvishoma".
• 43% yevaEurope, paavhareji, vanofunga kuti wechipiri Trump mutungamiri achaita kukunda kweUkraine "zvishoma", nepo 9% chete yakaratidza maonero ekupesana.

• 41% yevaEurope, paavhareji, vanotenda kuti EU inofanirwa 'kuwedzera' kana 'kuchengeta' rutsigiro rwayo kuUkraine padanho razvino, kana paine kubviswa kweAmerica rubatsiro pasi paTrump. 
• Kunyangwe vashoma chete (20%) vevaEurope vaizowedzera rutsigiro kuUkraine kuripa kuburitswa kweUS, 21% vakaratidza kuti vangada kuchengetedza mwero werutsigiro usingachinji. Chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chevakapindura (33%) vangada EU kutevera US mukumisa rutsigiro.

Vanyori vanocherechedza kuti veEurope havasi mu "heroic mood", kana, zvechokwadi, kunyange vane tariro pamusoro pemamiriro ezvinhu muUkraine, makore maviri mberi. Nekudaro, kunyangwe vachipesana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, vanopokana kuti kuzvipira kwevaEurope kudzivirira kukunda kweRussia hakuna kufamba. Izvo zvakare zvinotsigirwa nenzvimbo yakafara yeruzhinji kuti, kunyangwe kana US ikabvisa rutsigiro rwayo kuUkraine, EU inofanirwa 'kuchengeta' kana 'kuwedzera' rutsigiro rwayo kuKyiv.

Krastev naLeonard vanotenda kuti makwikwi aya pakati pekuora mwoyo kweruzhinji kuvimba pamusoro pekuti hondo ichapera sei uye kuchengetedzwa kwerutsigiro kudzivirira kukunda kweRussia kwakagadzira dichotomy nyowani. Dambudziko revagadziri vemitemo vekuMadokero izvozvi, vanopokana, richave rekutsanangura kuti 'runyararo' rwakaita sei uye kutanga rondedzero inodzivirira Trump - naVladimir Putin - kuita sevamiriri verunyararo mugakava iro richiri kure nesarudzo.

Vachitaura nezve ECFR ichangoburwa pan-European ongororo, munyori-mubatanidzwa uye ECFR muvambi director, Mark Leonard, akati:

"Kuti tiite nyaya yekuenderera mberi nerutsigiro rweEurope kuUkraine, vatungamiriri veEU vachafanira kuchinja matauriro avanoita nezvehondo. Sarudzo yedu inoratidza kuti vazhinji vekuEurope vanoshuvira kudzivirira kukunda kweRussia. Asi zvakare havatendi kuti Ukraine ichakwanisa kudzoreredza nharaunda yayo yese. Mhosva inonyengetedza kune veruzhinji vanopokana ndeyekuti rutsigiro rwemauto kuUkraine runogona kutungamira kurunyararo rwakasimba, rwakataurirana rwunofarira Kyiv, pane kukunda kwaPutin. "

Ivan Krastev, munyori-mubatanidzwa uye Sachigaro weCentre for Liberal Strategies, akawedzera:

"Njodzi huru ndeyekuti Trump - naPutin avo vakaratidza kuti vakagadzirira nhaurirano - vanoedza kuratidza Ukraine (nevatsigiri vayo) sebato re'hondo yekusingaperi' ivo vachitora chipfeko che'runyararo'.  

Kukunda kweRussia hakusi rugare. Kana mutengo wekugumisa hondo uri kushandura Ukraine kuita nyika isina munhu, uku kuchave kukundwa kwete kweKyiv chete asi kuEurope nekuchengetedzeka kwayo. Zvino kana Moscow ichitsigira nhaurirano, zvakakosha kuti vese vekuUkraine nevekuMadokero vazive izvo zvisingagone kutaurirana kana zvasvika kune ramangwana reUkraine. Kubva mumaonero ekuMadokero, chisingagone kupindurwa isarudzo yedemocracy uye pro-Western yeUkraine. "

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