New ECFR sarudzo: VeEurope vakavhurika kuUkraine vachijoinha EU kunyangwe njodzi dzekuchengetedza, asi inotonhorera pakuwedzera kuwedzera kwebloc pamberi peiyo yakakosha European Council summit.

●    'Flash poll' neEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) inoratidza kuti vanhu vekuEurope vane pfungwa dzakavhurika pakupinda muUkraine, zvisinei nenjodzi dzehupfumi nekuchengetedza kubva padanho rakadaro. Kune zvakare rutsigiro rwakakura rweMoldova neMontenegro kujoinha EU.

●    Kune kushorwa kwakapararira, zvisinei, kuTurkey kujoinha EU, uye mhinduro dzinotonhorera kune vamiriri veAlbania, Bosnia neHerzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia neSerbia.

●    Sarudzo iyi inoratidza kuti pane kupatsanurwa kwakajeka pakati penhengo dze 'kare' ne 'nyowani' dzeEU panguva yekuwedzera kwebloc - nemaonero aripo, muAustria, Denmark, Germany neFrance zvekuti EU haifanirwe kunge ichitsvaga kuwedzera. chero nyika itsva nhengo panguva ino, zvichienzaniswa neRomania nePoland, uko kutsigirwa kwekuwedzera kwakasimba.

●    ECFR vamwe vakuru, Piotr Buras uye Engjellushe Morina, vanopikisa kuti, nepo nharo dzezvematongerwo enyika dzinotsigira kuwedzera kwakasimba nhasi kupfuura zvazvaive makore makumi maviri apfuura, maonero eruzhinji haana kuramba achimhanya. Kuti ayananise izvi, Buras naMorina vanodana vatungamiriri veEU kuti vatumire meseji yakasimba pamusangano wesvondo rino weEuropean Council, nekupa mwenje wegirini kuhurukuro dzekupinda neUkraine neMoldova uye nekugadzira nzira yekuvandudza masangano ayo anozodzikamisa kushushikana kwevagari uye kutanga. nzira yekuwedzera kune nyika dzese dzakakwikwidza.

Vanhu vekuEurope vakapatsanurwa pamabhenefiti ekuwedzera kweEU uye vane manzwiro akavhengana pamusoro pekugona kubvumidzwa kweUkraine, Albania, Bosnia neHerzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, neTurkey senhengo dzenhengo, maererano neongororo itsva. rakabudiswa nhasi ne European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Nhoroondo ye ECFR ongororo yenyika dzakawanda, yakapihwa kuburikidza neYouGov uye Datapraxis munyika nhanhatu dziri nhengo dzeEU (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, neRomania), vakawana kuti, nepo paine rutsigiro rwakakura rweUkraine, uye, zvishoma, Moldova neMontenegro, vachibvumidzwa kuEuropean bloc, ikoko. inyaya dzakadzama dzehupfumi nekuchengetedza zvine chekuita nekutorwa kwavo. Kune zvakare kutonhorera kune kukwikwidza kweTurkey, kunyanya, uye kune avo veGeorgia uye nyika zhinji dzeWestern Balkan.

Pane imwe pfungwa yakanaka, kubvuma mutengo wekuwedzera hakudzivisi rutsigiro. Pakati pevakabvunzwa vanoona kuwedzera kweUkraine kuve nekukanganisa kushoma kuchengetedzeka kweEU, 44% inotsigira kutorwa kweUkraine nepo 27% chete ichitenda kuti haifanirwe kupinda muEU. Uye pakati pevakabvunzwa vanoona kushomeka kwakashata kwekupinda kweUkraine pahupfumi hweEU, makumi mana muzana vanoti inofanirwa kupinda muEU (ukuwo 40% vachiti haifanire kudaro) - chiratidzo chakajeka cherutsigiro rusingazununguki rweEuropean kune nyika.

Iyo dhata inoratidza kuti pane kupatsanurwa kwakajeka munzira iyo vagari vanoona nyaya yekuwedzera - neavo vari mu 'vakuru' nhengo dzeEU, kusanganisira Austria, France, Denmark neGermany, vangangoramba kuwedzera kwenhengo, nepo avo vari ' nyika itsva dziri nhengo, kusanganisira Poland neRomania, dzinoona kuwedzera nenzira yakanaka. Inotaridzawo kusiyana kwemaonero pamusoro penguva inotarisirwa yekuwedzera - nevasingasviki chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chevagari ve "vakuru" bloc yenyika dzenhengo (Denmark 29%, Austria 28%, Germany 28% neFrance 27%) vachitaura maonero. kuti EU inofanira kunge ichitsvaga kuwedzera nhengo itsva 'parizvino', zvichienzaniswa nehafu yevakapindura munyika 'itsva' nhengo (Poland 48% neRomania 51%). Kusarudzwa kweTurkey kunoitwa zvakanyanya kuderera, muEurope yose, uye inopfuura hafu yeavo vakaongororwa (51%) neECFR ichiratidza kuti nyika 'haifanire kukwanisa kupinda muEU'. Mafungiro akanaka zvakare pakati pevakabvunzwa kubva kunhengo nhanhatu dzakananga kuKosovo (37%, ruzhinji, kupokana), Serbia (35%, ruzhinji, kupokana) neAlbania (35%, vazhinji, vachipokana), nenzvimbo dzayo dzakateerana. kupinda. 

Mukuongorora kwavo kwezvakawanikwa muongororo, veECFR vakuru vezvematongerwo enyika, Piotr Buras uye Engjellushe Morina, anoratidza kuti pane kudiwa kukuru kwe "kubatanidza nekuchengetedza nzvimbo yeEurope", pakatarisana nekusagadzikana kwekupokana kumiganhu yeEurope. Vanodaidza vatungamiriri veEU, vachaungana muBrussels svondo rino, kuti vatange hurukuro dzekupinda muhurumende neUkraine neMoldova uye kuti vamise danho rezvitanho rinotevera kune dzimwe nyika dzese dziri kuda kukwikwidza. Kuita izvi, pamwe nekuvandudzwa kwemasangano, kuchabatsira kuyananisa vagari "kusava nechokwadi" pamusoro pekugona kwebloc kutora nhengo itsva uye kujekesa kuti nei kuwedzera "kwakakosha kune ramangwana reEurope", sekureva kwaBuras naMorina.

Zvakawanikwa zvinouya mushure mekunge ECFR yaburitsa a magetsi odhita yenhengo dzenhengo dzenzvimbo pakuwedzera kweEU munaNovember. Chidzidzo ichocho chinoratidza kuti pane chibvumirano chakakura pakati pehurumende pamusoro pekuda kwekuwedzera sechinodikanwa chezvematongerwo enyika, asi zvakare inocherekedza kusawirirana kukuru uye inoongorora kuti izvi zvingayananiswa sei.

Zvakawanikwa zvakawanikwa kubva kuECFR's multi-nyika ongororo pakuwedzera zvinosanganisira:

●    VeEurope vakavhurika kune zano reUkraine kujoinha EU. Tsigiro yekupinda kweUkraine kuEU inokunda muDenmark (50%) uye muPoland (47%), ine maonero akapatsanurwa muRomania (32% rutsigiro vs. 29% vanopikisa), Germany (37% rutsigiro vs. 39% vanopikisa) , uye France (29% inotsigira vs. 35% inopikisa). Austria iri kunze pamubvunzo wekubvuma Ukraine muEuropean bloc, nevazhinji (52%) vachipokana nekugona kwayo kupinda, uye chete 28% mukufarira. 

●    Nekudaro, pane kutyira kuti budiriro yakadai inogona kuunza njodzi dzehupfumi nekuchengetedza kune bloc nenyika dzenhengo dzayo - zvakanyanya kupfuura kugamuchirwa kwenyika dzakakwikwidza kubva kuWestern Balkan. 45% yevakabvunzurudzwa neECFR vanotenda kuti Ukraine ichipinda muEU ichava 'negative impact' pakuchengetedzwa kweEU, vachipesana ne25% vanoiona seine 'positive impact'. 39% vanotenda zvakare kupinda kweUkraine kwaizove ne'kukanganisa' kuchengetedzwa kwenyika yavo - nepo 24% chete vachitarisira 'zvakanaka maitiro'. Kupinda kwenyika dzeWestern Balkans kunotakura njodzi shoma, sekureva kwevakapindura ongororo iyi - nemaonero akapatsanurwa pa, 33% uye 23%, zvichiteerana, pakati peavo vanozviona seine 'negative' kana 'positive' kukanganisa. kuchengetedzwa kwebloc.

●    Pane kutya zvakare pamusoro pekuwedzera kwesimba rezvematongerwo enyika reEU munyika. Poland neDenmark ndivo vane tarisiro huru pamubvunzo uyu, nehuwandu hwe43% uye 35% yevagari, zvichiteerana, vachitenda kutorwa kweUkraine kwaizove nemhedzisiro yakanaka kune EU simba rezvematongerwo enyika munyika - uye chete 21% uye 19%, maererano, kutarisira kukanganisa kwakaipa. Zvichakadaro, maonero akatekeshera muAustria (42%) neGermany (32%) ndewekuti kupinda kweUkraine kwaizove nemhedzisiro yakaipa pamasimba ezvematongerwo enyika eEU munyika; uye avo vari muFrance neRomania vakapatsanurwa mumaonero avo, ne24% uye 31%, zvichiteerana, vachitenda kuti zvingave nemhedzisiro yakanaka, uye 28% munhengo dzese dzenhengo vachitenda kuti zvingave nemhedzisiro yakaipa.

●    Kupatsanurwa kuripo kana paine mukana wekuwedzera. ECFR's data inoratidza kuti vagari, paavhareji, vakakamurwa kuita zvikamu zvitatu zvakaenzana panguva yekuwedzera chero kweEU: pakati peavo vanofunga kuti kuwedzera kunofanira kuenderera nhasi (35%); avo vasingafungi kuti EU inofanira kuwedzera panguva ino (37%); uye avo vasina hanya nezvenyaya iyi kana kuti vasingazive (28%).

●    Pane zvakare kupatsanurwa pakati penyika 'dzekare' uye 'itsva' dzeEU panhau yakafara yekubvuma nyika dzenhengo itsva. Panyika dzakaongororwa, vakapindura muAustria (53%), Germany (50%) neFrance (44%) ndivo vangangove nemafungiro ekuti EU haifanire kutsvaga kuwedzera kwekukurumidza. MuRomania, ruzhinji (51%), uye muPoland, ruzhinji (48%), vanotenda kuti EU inofanirwa kunge iri kutsvaga kuwedzera nhengo itsva. Denmark inenge iri kunze pakati penyika dzenhengo 'dzekare', iine 37% chete ichipokana nekuwedzera kwekukurumidza - kunyangwe ichi chichiri maonero.

●    Pane kushorwa kwakasimba pamukana weTurkey kupinda muEU. 51% yeavo vakaongororwa munyika nhanhatu vanopikisa pfungwa yekuti Turkey inokwanisa kupinda muEU. Vashoma pane 1 muvashanu vevakapindura (5%) vangatsigira chero mafambiro emberi panhengo yeTurkey.

●    Vanhu vekuEurope vanotonhorerawo kuAlbania, Bosnia neHerzegovina, Kosovo, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia neSerbia vachiva nyika dzemangwana. Tichitarisa pamwe chete nyika nhanhatu dzakabvunzurudzwa, vasingasviki 30% yevakapindura vakaratidza kutsigira chero nyika dzataurwa pamusoro dziri kubvumirwa kupinda muEU. Tsigiro yekupinda yaive yakapfava kuKosovo (20% 'vanofanirwa kujoina' vs. 37% 'havafanire kujoina'), Albania (24% 'vanofanirwa kujoina vs. 35%' havafanire kujoina'), Serbia (25% inofanira 'kugona kujoina' vs. 35% 'haafanire kujoina), uye Georgia (25% inofanirwa 'kugona kujoina' vs. 31% 'haafanire kujoina kujoina). Mafungiro akapatsanurwa pamusoro pekubvumirwa kubvumirwa kweNorth Macedonia (26% 'vanokwanisa kujoina' vs. 27% 'havafanire kujoina') neBosnia neHerzegovina (28% 'vanofanira kujoina' vs. 29 % 'haafanire kujoina').

●    Muzviitiko zveMoldova neMontenegro, pane tsigiro yekubvuma kwavo mune ramangwana. Kunyika mbiri idzi, kune rutsigiro rwakawanda, pane kushorwa, kujoinha kwavo EU - 30% 'vanofanirwa kujoina' vs. 28% 'havafanire kujoina' kuMoldova, uye 30% 'vanofanira kukwanisa join' vs. 25% 'haafanire kujoina' kuMontenegro.

●    Vazhinji vekuEurope havaoni hupfumi hunobatsira pakutorwa kweUkraine. Kunze kwePoland uye, kusvika pamwero mudiki, Romania, uko vazhinji (43% muPoland, uye 37% muRomania) vanoona kunaka kwehupfumi kuhupfumi hweEU, kune kusimba kucherechedzwa kumwe kumwe kwechero rubatsiro rwemukati rwehupfumi kune bloc kubva kuUkraine ichiva nhengo yenyika. Ongororo iyi inoratidza kuti, parizvino, vagari vazhinji vanotenda kuti kuwedzera kweEU hakuzove nemhedzisiro kana kutakura imwe mutengo kuhupfumi hweEurope. Izvi zvinonyanya kuitika muDenmark neAustria, uko 54% ne46% yevakapindura vakaratidza maonero ekuti kupinda kweUkraine kwaizove ne'negative impact' pahupfumi hweEU.

Vachitaura, Piotr Buras, mukuru wezvemitemo uye mukuru wehofisi yeECFR yeWarsaw, akati: “Kunyange svondo rino European Council ichatarisa nzira dzekuva nhengo dzeEU kuUkraine nedzimwe nyika dzakakwikwidza, gakava riri pamusoro pekuti izvi zvingaitwe sei, mukuita, haasati atanga. Geopolitical rhetoric kubva kuBrussels iri kuvhara kushushikana kwakadzama munhengo dzenhengo nezve mhedzisiro yekuwedzera uye kusava nechokwadi kwakapararira pamusoro pekugona kweEU kutora nhengo nyowani. Kuyananisa kusawirirana kunobvira, uye kupa kuedza kwavo mukana wekubudirira, vatungamiriri veEU vanofanirwa kufunga nezve kumisa yakatarwa nguva yekutorwa kwenhengo itsva. Izvi zvinopa nzvimbo yekuti bloc ipedze kuvandudzwa kwemasangano, kuvaka kusimba, uye kubatanidza veruzhinji kuti sei zano iri rakakosha kuEurope. "

Engjellushe Morina, mumwe mukuru weECFR's 'Wider Europe Programme' uye nyanzvi yekuwedzera EU, akawedzera kuti: "Musangano weEU wesvondo rino unogona kunge wakakonzera zvakanyanya munhoroondo yebloc ichangoburwa. Meso ese achange aripakuti nhaurirano dzekupinda muUkraine nedzimwe nyika dzevamiriri dzichazopihwa girinhi. Kuita kwakadai kwaizoenderana nemaonero eruzhinji muzviitiko zvakawanda, uye, pamwe zvakanyanya kukosha kuEU, tumira meseji yakajeka kuna Vladimir Putin kuti kuedza kwake kushandura mafambiro muUkraine, uye kuwedzera simba rake munharaunda yeEurope, ichasangana netsva. masvingo ekubudirira."

Pamusoro peECFR

IEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) inohwina mubairo, pan-European think-tank. Yakatangwa muna Gumiguru 2007, chinangwa chayo ndechekuita tsvakiridzo uye kukurudzira gakava rine ruzivo muEurope yose pamusoro pekuvandudzwa kwetsika dzeEurope dzinoenderana uye dzinoshanda-zvakavakirwa kunze kwenyika. ECFR isangano rakazvimirira uye rinopihwa mari kubva kwakasiyana siyana. Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo, tapota tapota apa.

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