Maonero eumambo hweRussia pamusoro peCaucas

Mutemo weRussia wemazuva ano muCaucasus unowanzotsanangurwa kuburikidza nemutauro wekuchengetedza, kuchengetedza runyararo uye kugadzikana kwedunhu. Asi midzi yawo yakadzika iri mutsika yekare yeumambo: kubata dunhu iri semuganhu wekutarisira, kurongwa patsva uye kuchengetwa mukati mesimba reMoscow..

Mutemo weRussia muCaucasus hauna kumbobvira wava wemiganhu chete. Kubva munguva yeumambo kusvika munguva yeSoviet kusvika panguva yeSoviet, Moscow yave ichiona dunhu iri senzvimbo ine chinangwa umo kupinda kwemauto, manejimendi yevanhu, kuzivikanwa kwechitendero, nzira dzekutengeserana uye kuvimbika kwezvematongerwo enyika zvinosangana.

Nhoroondo iyoyo ichiri kukosha nanhasi. Simba reRussia muSouth Caucasus harina kusimba kupfuura zvaraive Ukraine isati yapinda, asi pfungwa dziri shure kwemutemo wayo hadzina kunyangarika. Moscow ichiri kutsvaga kuchengetedza basa rayo rakanaka muArmenia, Azerbaijan neGeorgia, kunyangwe nyika dzemudunhu dzichitevera mitemo yakasiyana-siyana yekunze uye vanhu vekunze, kusanganisira Turkey, United States neEuropean Union, vachiwedzera kushanda.

Imwe nzira inobatsira yekunzwisisa kuenderera mberi uku ndeye Rudzi Rwakaparara - Njodzi Isina Kuonekwa.  rakanyorwa nemunyori wenhoroondo wekuUkraine Kuzari. Bhuku iri rinoongorora kunyangarika kwenharaunda dzeTurkic kubva muzvikamu zveSouth Caucasus uye rinoisa nhoroondo iyoyo munhoroondo yakakura yekuwedzera kweRussia munzvimbo dzeTurkic neMuslim. Pfupiso yaro inoratidza basa iri sechidzidzo cheErivan neZangezur pakati pa1827 na1988, zvichiratidza, sekureva kwemunyori, kunyanya kubva kuzvinyorwa zveArmenia, Russian neFrench kwete zveAzerbaijan kana zveTurkey.

Kukosha kwebhuku iri pakuongorora kwemazuva ano hakusi pakuritora segwara remitemo iripo, asi munhaurirano yaro yakakura yenhoroondo. Kuzari anotsanangura pfungwa dzekutanga dzehurumende yeMoscow sedzakakura zvishoma dzichipesana nenyika yeTurkic-Muslim yakabuda munzvimbo yeGolden Horde. Mutsananguro iyoyo, kuwedzera kweMoscow kuenda kunharaunda yeVolga, Siberia, Central Asia neCaucasus kwaisangova kwenzvimbo chete, asi kwaive kwepfungwa: maitiro akaumbwa kuburikidza nezvikumbiro zvebasa rechitendero, nhaka yeumambo uye hutongi hwetsika.

Russia yemazuva ano haishandisi mazwi akafanana. Inotaura pachinzvimbo chevimbiso dzekuchengetedza, kuchengetedza runyararo, kurwisa hugandanga, nzira dzekufambisa, kugadzikana kwemiganhu uye kuchengetedzwa kwevanhu vemunyika. Asi tsika yekare ichiri kuoneka: Caucasus ichiri kubatwa kwete senzvimbo iri pedyo chete, asi senzvimbo uko Moscow inotarisira kodzero yakakosha yekupindira, yekuyananisa uye yekupesvedzera.

Muzana remakore rechi19, kufambira mberi kweHumambo hweRussia muCaucasus kwaisanganisira kukunda kwemauto, kurongwa patsva kwehutongi uye kuchinja kwevanhu. Dunhu iri harina kutorwa senzvimbo isina kwayakarerekera. Rakarongwazve kuti rishandire kuchengetedzwa kwehumambo nekutaurirana. Kudzora Caucasus kwakaita kuti Russia ikwanise kupinda muGungwa Dema, Caspian, Anatolia, Persia neCentral Asia. Zvakabvumirawo Moscow neSt Petersburg kutonga muganhu uri pakati penyika dzechiKristu, dzechiMuslim, dzechiTurkic, dzechiPersia nedzechiOttoman.

Pfungwa iyi yekuganhurira nyika yakaramba iripo. Pasi pehutongi hweSoviet, Caucasus yakabatanidzwa muhurongwa hwakabatana hwaibvuma zviri pamutemo marepublic enyika ukuwo ichiramba iine simba guru muMoscow. Miganhu yakatorwa uye yakadhirowa patsva. Masangano anozvitonga akagadzirwa. Zvichemo zvemadzinza zvakadziviswa pane kugadziriswa. Hutongi hweSoviet hwakamisa kusawirirana kwakawanda pasina kubvisa zvikonzero zvazvo.

Soviet Union payakaparara, mibvunzo iyoyo isina kugadziriswa yakava zvishandiso zvesimba reSoviet Union. MuGeorgia, rutsigiro rweRussia kuAbkhazia neSouth Ossetia rwakapa Moscow simba rekusingaperi pamusoro peTbilisi. Mushure mehondo ya2008, Russia yakaziva nzvimbo dzese dziri mbiri sedzakazvimiririra, ichivimbisa kuti hutongi hweGeorgia nekubatana kwekumadokero kwaizoramba kwakadziviswa nekugara pasi kusina kugadziriswa uye kupatsanurwa kwenzvimbo.

MuArmenia neAzerbaijan, Moscow yakambozviti ndiyo murevereri akakosha paNagorno-Karabakh. Russia yakatengesa zvombo, yakachengetedza hukama hwekuchengetedza, uye yakazviratidza semunhu mumwe chete anokwanisa kugadzirisa kukwira kwehondo. Kumiswa kwehondo muna 2020 kwakagumisa Hondo Yechipiri yeKarabakh kwakatanga kwaita sekusimbisa basa iroro, sezvo kwakaunza varwiri verunyararo veRussia munzvimbo yehondo. Asi zviitiko zvakatevera zvakafumura miganhu yesimba reMoscow.

Kudzoreredzwa kwekutonga kwakazara kweAzerbaijan pamusoro peKarabakh muna 2023 kwakaderedza zvakanyanya basa reRussia semutongi wedunhu. Basa rekuchengetedza runyararo reRussia harina kudzivirira mhedzisiro yacho, uye kuvimba kweArmenia muvimbiso dzekuchengetedza dzeMoscow kwakakanganiswa zvakanyanya. Kubva ipapo, Yerevan yave ichitsvaga mutemo wekunze wakasiyana-siyana, kusanganisira kudyidzana kwakasimba neEuropean Union neUnited States.

Shanduko iyoyo ichiri isina kukwana uye inokakavadzana. Armenia ichiri kubatana neRussia mune zvehupfumi uye ichiri kubatana nemasangano anotungamirwa neRussia, asi mafambiro ezvematongerwo enyika akachinja. Muna Kurume 2026, Vladimir Putin akanyeverwa Armenia kuti haigone kuva nhengo yeEuropean Union pamwe chete neEurasian Economic Union inotungamirwa neRussia, zvichiratidza kunetseka kweMoscow pamusoro pekuedza kwaYerevan kuwedzera sarudzo dzayo. 

Nyevero iyi yaienderana nemaitiro eRussia akafara. Moscow haingorambi mutemo wehasha kubva kuvavakidzani vayo chete. Inowanzo ramba kugona kwavo kusarudza vega. MuCaucasus, sezvakaita muUkraine neMoldova, Russia yagara ichitora kupatsanurwa kwemitemo yekunze kwenyika nenyika dziri pedyo sengozi kune chinzvimbo chayo.

Nzira dzekufambisa ndidzo dzakakosha pamakwikwi aya. South Caucasus iri pakati peGungwa Dema, Gungwa reCaspian, Turkey, Iran, Russia neCentral Asia. Chero ani zvake anoronga nzira dzayo anopesvedzera kutengeserana pakati peEurope neAsia. Ndosaka nzira dzakarongwa dzinobatanidza Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nakhchivan, Turkey neCentral Asia dzine kukosha kupfuura kutengeserana.

Nzira yakarongwa yeTrump yeRunyararo neKubudirira Pasirose, kana kuti TRIPP, yave chikamu chemakwikwi aya makuru pamusoro pekubatana. Ongororo yazvino yeCarnegie ichangobva kuitwa yakatsanangurwa nzira iyi sechikamu chekuedza kukuru kwekubatanidzazve South Caucasus kuburikidza nekubatana uye kudyidzana, ukuwo tichicherechedzawo zvipingamupinyi zvematongerwo enyika uye zvinoshanda zviripo. 

KuMoscow, mapurojekiti akadaro anonyanya kukosha nekuti anogona kuderedza kuvimba nenyika yeRussia nezvivakwa. Carnegie zvakare akadaro kuti Middle Corridor iri kukurukurwa zvakanyanya senzira yekufambisa nepakati peRussia, kunyangwe ichitarisana nematambudziko makuru ekufambisa, hutongi uye zvematongerwo enyika. 

Apa ndipo panonyatsojeka kuti nhoroondo yacho yakaramba ichienderera mberi. Mutemo weumambo hweRussia muCaucasus waive nehanya nemigwagwa, mapasi, zviteshi zvengarava, migwagwa yemauto uye kuvimbika kwezvematongerwo enyika kwevanhu vemunharaunda. Mutemo weRussia wemazuva ano une hanyawo nekutonga migwagwa, njanji, miganhu, marongero emitero nevimbiso dzekuchengetedza. Zviridzwa zvachinja, asi chinangwa chehurongwa chinoramba chiri chimwe chete: kudzivirira dunhu kuti risarongwe pasina Russia.

Maonero eAzerbaijan anoratidza kuchinja kuri kuita hukama. Baku ine hukama hwekushanda neMoscow, asi haisisiri nhengo iri pasi pehurumende inotungamirwa neRussia. Yakawedzera hukama hwayo neTurkey, yakawedzera hukama hwesimba neEurope, yakaramba iine hukama hwekuchengetedza neIsrael, uye yakatevera zvirongwa zvayo zvedunhu. Haifanire kutaura izvi semutemo wekupikisa Russia. Kukosha kwayo kuri pakuti inozvitonga.

Armenia inomiririra divi rakasiyana nerekuchinja kumwe chete. Zvayaivimba zvakanyanya neRussia kuti ive nekuchengetedzwa, ikozvino iri kuyedza kana mamwe masangano anogona kuderedza kuvimba ikoko. Izvi hazvirevi kuti Armenia inogona kuzviparadzanisa neMoscow zviri nyore. Simba rehupfumi reRussia, hukama hwekutama, hukama hwesimba uye ma network ezvematongerwo enyika zvichiri kukura. Asi fungidziro yekare yekuti Russia ndiyo yega mubatsiri wekuchengetedza weArmenia yakaderedzwa simba.

Georgia inoramba yakaganhurirwa nerudzi rwakananga rwesimba reRussia: kugara uye kupatsanurwa kwenzvimbo. Abkhazia neSouth Ossetia hazvisi kungopesana kusina kugadziriswa chete; asi inzira dzinoganhurira sarudzo dzeGeorgia dzehurongwa. Mutemo weMoscow ikoko unoratidza nzira yagara iripo: kana kutonga kwakazara kusingagoneki, kusagadzikana kwakarongeka kunogona kushanda sechinotsiva.

Mugumisiro wacho wava dunhu riri kuchinja. Russia ichiripo, asi simba rayo harisisiri rekuzviitikira. Turkey yave nesimba rakawanda kuburikidza nekubatana kwayo neAzerbaijan. European Union iri kubatanidzwa zvakanyanya kuburikidza nesimba, kutarisa uye kubatana. United States yatora basa rinoonekwa mukudyidzana pakati peArmenia neAzerbaijan. Iran, zvakare, inotarisa mapurojekiti ekufambisa, kunyanya ayo angangochinja mukana wayo uye simba rayo.

Izvi hazvirevi kuti Caucasus iri kupinda munguva yapashure peRussia. Geography chete ndiyo inoita kuti Russia irambe iri mutambi mukuru. Ine miganhu, midziyo yemauto, hukama hwehupfumi uye network dzehungwaru. Inogona kuramba ichikanganisa, ichivharira uye ichidzvinyirira. Asi musiyano uripo pakati pesimba nekutonga uri kuramba uchikosha.

Saka, maitiro enhoroondo akadzama haasi ekutonga kweRussia kusingaputsike, asi ekuedza kweRussia kakawanda kudzivirira Caucasus kuti isave dunhu rakazvimiririra zvizere. Kukunda kwehumambo, mainjiniya eSoviet, kuchengetedza rugare mushure meSoviet uye kumanikidzwa kwenzira nekubatana kwemazuva ano zvese ndezvenguva dzakasiyana. Asi vane pfungwa imwe chete: Moscow haifanirwe kuregererwa muzvisarudzo zvinoumba Caucasus.

Kuronga nhoroondo kwaKuzari kunobatsira nekuti kunoisa pfungwa iyi mutsika refu yekuwedzera kweRussia nekutonga miganhu. Nhaurirano yebhuku iri pamusoro penharaunda dzeTurkic nepfungwa dzeMoscow dzekuwedzera ndeyemunda wenhoroondo unopikiswa, uye inofanira kuverengwa seimwe yenzvimbo pakati pedzimwe. Asi inobatsira kujekesa kuti nei Caucasus yatora nzvimbo yakadaro mukufunga kweRussia.

Nhasi uno, mubvunzo mukuru ndewekuti Armenia, Azerbaijan neGeorgia zvinogona here kusimbisa hurongwa hwedunhu hwakavakirwa pakuzvitonga, kugadziriswa kwakabvumiranwa uye hukama hwakasiyana-siyana hwekunze, pane kuvimba nemutongi mumwe chete wekunze. Maitiro iwayo achange asina kuenzana. Anogona kukonzera kusawirirana kutsva sezvo zvirambidzo zvekare zvichiderera. Anogonawo kukonzera kuedza kweRussia kudzoreredza simba rakarasika.

Saka mutemo weMoscow weCaucasus wemazuva ano hausi wekungopindura chete. Wakavakirwa pamaonero ekare edunhu iri senzvimbo yekutarisirwa, kwete kungobatanidzwa chete. Dambudziko rematunhu eSouth Caucasus nderekutsiva hurongwa ihwohwo nehurongwa umo masimba ekunze anokwikwidzana kuti ashande pamwe chete, asi asingati ndiwo ane remangwana redunhu iri.

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