Kyiv kuMoscow: 'Ticharova hupfumi hwako kusvika hwanyura'

Ramba rezvematongerwo enyika rinokurumidza kushanduka. Rimwe zuva kwaiva nekubata maoko nekapeti tsvuku muAlaska; inotevera, Trump achifona Rashiya "pepa tiger". Zvakatonyanya kuburitsa pachena kupfuura kunyomba ndizvo zvakazotevera: kana VaTrump vangoratidzira mitsara yemafuta uye kushomeka kwegasi, vezvenhau veMoscow vanodzorwa zvakasimba - kazhinji vachida kuvanza kukundikana - vakatanga kumhanyisa nyaya. kunyora, "hazvichaiti kuramba zviratidzo zvekushomeka kwepeturu mumatunhu," nyora David Kirichenko  uye Alexander J. Motyl.

Kumanikidzwa kuvhara kushomeka ndekumwe kutsemuka kwePutin's façade sezvo "special operation yemauto" inokwevera kusvika mugore rechina.

Muna Kukadzi, VaTrump vakaudza mutungamiri weUkraine, Volodymyr Zelensky kuti "havana makadhi". Asi pamusoro pegore rapfuura, Ukrainian drone inorwa paRussia yekuchenesa mafuta yakaratidza simba reKyiv rinokura, kunyangwe Moscow yaivimba nemafungu e. kurwisa nyama kune zviwanikwa zvidiki zvenzvimbo. Pakazosvika 2025 Rashiya akanga abhadhara mazana maviri ezviuru-mazana matatu akaurayiwa uye akakuvadzwa kweanenge 200,000,000,000 muzana yenharaunda yeUkraine - uye muna Nyamavhuvhu 2025 yakadzora nyika shoma pane yayakaita muna Nyamavhuvhu 2022.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, aimbova gurukota rezvekudzivirirwa kwenyika muUkraine, anoti hondo yapinda muchikamu chakareba umo kudzorwa uye tariro yekumisa kurwa nekukurumidza hazvigoneke. Anokurudzira mutemo we "Strategic neutralization" - kuomesa masimba eRussia akakosha munzvimbo dzese kuita kuti hutsinye hushaye basa.

Mumwe mukuru weUkraine akati Kyiv inocherekedza kukuvadzwa uye kukoshesa kurova panhandare dzendege, nzvimbo dzekuchengetera zvombo uye masimba emagetsi nekuti, nepo Russia inogona kutora kurasikirwa kukuru kwevanhu, "zvinorwadza kuti varasikirwe nemari" - uye mari yemafuta inobhadhara nyika, oligarchs nemari inoshandiswa kuchengetedza mauto achirwa. Russia ingori hombe kwazvo kuti idzivirire dunhu rayo kurwisa mhomho yeUkraine drones kubvira Kyiv yakatanga kurwisa mhepo muna 2023.

Kyiv iri kushanduka kupfuura mapoka ema drones anogona kushandiswa. Nzvimbo Yehondo akadaro kuti mwedzi uno, Ukraine yakafumura "bulged" R-360 Neptune, chikwambo chekumba chine matangi emafuta ekufambisa kuti iwedzere huwandu hwayo, chiratidzo chekuti Ukraine iri kuvaka yakadzika uye yakawedzera kurova arsenal izvozvi. raishandiswa kupesana nemafekitori eRussia uye logistics hubs. Imwe nzira inogadzirwa mudzimba, iyo Flamingo cruise missile, yapindawo mubasa, kunyange zvazvo kushanda kwayo kuzere kuchiri kuonekwa.

Maererano ne The Economist, inenge 60 muzana yekurova kwakadzika kunoitwa neiyo yakaderera-FP-1 drone, iyo inogona kusvika kune zvinangwa 1,500 makiromita mukati meRussia. Iwo maFP-1s, ayo anotora zviuru makumi mashanu nezvishanu zvemadhora imwe neimwe, ave ikozvino Yakabudiswa pamwero unopfuura zana pazuva. Ukraine iri kukwikwidza zvakare inorema Lyutyi drone ine makiromita zviuru zviviri-makiromita, uchishandisa muchina-kuona kuti utungamirire kune chinangwa. 

Mukutanga kwaOctober, vakuru vakuru veRussia Zvinonzi kurwiswa nedrone panzvimbo yekuchenesa mafuta yeTyumen anenge zviuru zviviri zvemakiromita kubva kuUkraine, zvichiratidza kukura kwekusvika uye kushingirira kwemushandirapamwe weKyiv wekuramwa mabasa. Musi waGumiguru 22, drones yakarova imwe kuchenesa mafuta muMakhachkala, Dagestan, iri makiromita angangoita 1,700 kubva kuUkraine. Zvakawanda seMoscow inobhejera uremu kurova maguta eUkraine, Kyiv yave kubheja pahuwandu kurova kumashure kweRussia, yakanangana nemafuta anonatsa uye govera nodes izvo zvinoita kuti mauto ehondo arambe achimhanya.

Mumwe mutauri weRussia akabvuma mhedzisiro, nyevero; "Ndinogona kutaura kuti zvinhu zviri kuramba zvichiipa. Dambudziko remafuta edzimotokari riri kuwedzera izvozvi." MuCrimea yakagarwa kwave kuine mishumo yevanhu vari kupuruzira mafuta kubva kumotokari dzakamiswa; muRussia yose, mitsetse mirefu pazviteshi zvepeturu, misika isiri pamutemo nekuti gasi riri kuwedzera uye kuunzwa kwekuyerwa kwenzvimbo kune yakakura-mwero dambudziko remafuta. 

Dambudziko iri rakura zvekuti zviremera zviri kugadzirira imupota peturu kubva kunze kwenyika, nevakuru vakabvuma kuti "mamiriro ezvinhu akaoma". Pakupera kwaGunyana, ingangoita 38% yekunatswa kwekutanga kweRussia chinzvimbo yakakanganiswa. Pamusoro pe50 nzvimbo dzeRussia uso kuperevedza kwemafuta. Musi waGumiguru 7, Reuters Zvinonzi kuti Russia yakawedzera kutengwa kwepeturu kubva kuBelarus, ichikwira zvakapetwa munaGunyana kusvika matani zviuru makumi mana nezvipfumbamwe, sezvo kurova kweUkraine drone pazvicherwa kwadzamisa kushomeka uye kumanikidza Moscow kuti itarise kunze kwenyika kune zvekukurumidza. 

Kubuda kwemafuta eRussia kuri kudonha zvakare sezvirango, hondo uye kuchembera minda kuruma, uye Wall Street Journal. Inonyevera matura akawanda anogona kunge achidhura uye akaoma kuburitsa panosvika 2030 - kutyisidzira mari inotsigira hupfumi hwehondo yeKremlin.

Ikozvino Ukraine iri kuita chokwadi chekuti vanhu vekuRussia vanonzwa kudzima kwakafanana kwakaitwa nevaUkraine kwemakore. Musi waGumiguru 21, Ukrainian drones akarova chiteshi chemagetsi munharaunda yeBryansk yeRussia uye chinopisa magetsi chirimwa muSmolensk. Kuramwa mabasa kwakafanana muna Gumiguru kwakasiya vagari vangangosvika zviuru makumi mana Belgorod pasina simba mushure mekunge magetsi arohwa. Nhare dzakabatwa akasunungurwa neUkraine's military intelligence (HUR) inoratidza kupererwa kuri kukura pakati pevaRussia. "Mazana akawanda e (strike drones) akatangwa pane imwe nzvimbo. Unogona kufungidzira here?! Ndinotarisa uye iri kubhururuka. Ichabhururuka kupi, uye ichaita sei, chii chiri kunanga? Inongova isina tariro, "akadaro mumwe mukadzi wechiRussia. 

Putin akabheja kupona kwake pahondo isingaperi, achigadzirisa hupfumi kudyisa kurwa uye kutenga kuvimbika kwevakuru munguva yehondo. rendi, kunyangwe iyo sisitimu inoratidza kukura kwemari uye kushushikana kwekupa. Zvichakadaro, vakuru vakuru veRussia vari kuba zvese zvavanogona kubva muhondo. Bhanga guru rinongokwanisa kuita “zvishamiso” zvakawanda kuti hupfumi hwenyika hurambe huchigadzikana.  

Interim H1 2025 zvikamu mukusakwana kusvika ku341.8 bhiriyoni rubles - inenge hafu yegore rapera. Gazprom Neft yakacheka mari yepakati pegore kubva pa246.4 bhiriyoni kusvika ku82 bhiriyoni rubles, ukuwo Severstal neMMK vakadzima kugoverwa kwechinguvana. Kudzvanywa kwemari yemakambani kunoderedza mari yehurumende uye kunonetsa mari yehondo; Bazi rezvemari rakatodzikisira fungidziro yaro yekugova.

Pakazosvika July, Russia kushomeka kwebhajeti yakanga yatowedzera kusvika pamabhiriyoni 61 emadhora, ichipfuura chinangwa chegore rose mumwedzi minomwe chete. Deficit inofungidzirwa kuwedzera kusvika 19 trillion rubles muna 2026-2028. Zvisinei, Zelensky anofanotaura kuti Kremlin ichasangana nekushomeka kwebhajeti kuri kuita mabhiriyoni zana emadhora muna 2026.

Tine tarisiro yekuvhara gomba rebhajeti, hurumende yakasimudza mitero kumabhizinesi madiki uye yakawedzera iyo VAT kubva pa20% kusvika 22%. Mashandisirwo emari munzanga ari kudzikiswa, uye pari kutaurwa nezvekubvutwa kwehurumende mari dzaiiswa mumabhanga, kudhindwa kwemari, uye chokwadi chekuderera kwemari. Moscow inotarisira kuwedzera kukwereta pamwe ne50% muna 2025. 

Kuita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye kuoma, zviratidzo zvemazuva ano zvinoratidza upfumi iri kunonoka, July GDP yakakura chete 0.4% gore negore uye kutengeswa kwemafuta, ayo ari makuru eRussia uye ane mari yakawanda, akadonha. Basa rinoramba rakasimba, pasina chiyero chidiki nekuda kwekubuda kwemazana ezviuru zvevashandi, kusarudzika kwevanhu, uye chokwadi chekuti Putin ari kudyara zvakanyanya muhupfumi hwemauto uye kuregeredza hupfumi hwevatengi. Nekuda kweizvozvo, sevanhu vekuRussia vazhinji vakawana kudonha kwakakosha kwehupenyu hwehupenyu sezvavakabatsirwa nekudyara-investment mune isiri-inogadzira chikamu chehupfumi: drones nematangi zvinoparadzwa nekukurumidza sezvazvinogadzirwa. Zvakatoipa, kukura kwehupfumi hwemauto kuri kudzikira, uye mihoro yakaderedzwa ne10%.

Nyanzvi mbiri dzezvehupfumi dzeRussia dzinopokana, Vladimir Milov naIgor Lipsits, vakafanotaura nemazvo mamiriro ehupfumi eRussia mwedzi, kana asiri makore, apfuura - nyanzvi dzekuMadokero dzisati dzabata uye dzapinda munzira. Varume vese vari vaviri vanofanotaura nguva dzinotyisa dzehupfumi hweRussia. Lipsits inoti nzanga ichatambura, sezvo hupfumi hwaPutin "hunorasa vasina simba, vanotora penjeni nevarombo." Asi hutongi hausi "kushambira muchokoreti" zvakare: hupfumi hahugone kurarama uye Russia ichadonha, seUSSR. MuRussia chete tsime rekuwana mari ioiri, nekuti “Russia haigone kuburitsa chero chinhu” chinodiwa nenyika.

Milov inongova isina tariro nezve tarisiro yehupfumi hweRussia. Russia iri kusangana ne "dambudziko rakadzika rebhajeti" iro "risina nzira yekubuda nayo." Zvinhu hazvina kumboshata kudai kubva kuma1990, apo hupfumi hweRussia hwakapinda mukudonha kwemahara. Mitero haigoni kugadzirisa kuperevedza; zvechokwadi vaigona kuderedza kukura kweupfumi uye kuita kuti zvinhu zvinyanye kuipa. Zvichakadaro, inflation inoramba yakakwira, mapazi ese ehupfumi ari kuderera, uye mabhindauko achadzika muna 2026 uye mushure. Kana zviremera “zvichida kuuraya upfumi hwenyika, isarudzo yazvo,” anodaro Milov. Gore razvino rinogona kupupurira dutu rakakwana, panguva iyo kuurayiwa kwemaitiro asina kunaka kunouya pamwe chete panguva imwe chete. "Mamiriro ezvinhu achange akaipa kwenguva yakareba."

Maitiro aya achaita sei pakukwanisa kwaPutin kurwa hondo? Lipsits anotenda kuti "chero bedzi Russia ichikwanisa kutengesa oiri, ichakwanisa kuenderera mberi nehondo." Milov anotenda kuti "Putin haakwanise kugumbura hombe" uye acharamba achiita zvaari kutoita: kubhomba Ukraine nema drones akachipa uye kutsvaga madhiraivha mashoma munzira dzinoverengeka.

Izvi zvinoita sezvinoreva kuti kurwadziwa kwehupfumi chete kunogona kunge kusina kukwana kumanikidza Moscow kutafura yekutaurirana. Kune rumwe rutivi, kune marwadzo uye kune kudonha. Kana Lipsits's naMilov's akaipisisa-mamiriro ezvinhu akazadzika, sezvavanofunga ivo, panogona kunge pasina yakawanda yeRussia yasara kuenda kutafura yekutaurirana.

Mhinduro kumatambudziko ehupfumi eRussia iri nyore: kupedza hondo neUkraine. Asi Putin, anogona kunzwisisa kukanganisa kwaari, haagone kuzviita. Sezvo azvizivisa padhuze nechikonzero chakarasika, Putin anoziva kuti chero chinhu chipfupi chekukunda chinorova chingareva kuzviuraya kwezvematongerwo enyika kwaari. Sarudzo pamberi pevaRussia inorwadza zvakajeka: kungave kuzviuraya kweRussia kana kwaPutin.

David Kirichenko iAssociate Research Fellow kuHenry Jackson Society. Basa rake rehondo rave richiratidzwa muzvinyorwa zvakaita seAtlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, uye Modern Warfare Institute, pakati pezvimwe. Mutevere pa X: @DVKirichenko.

Alexander J. Motyl purofesa wesainzi yezvematongerwo enyika paRutgers University-Newark. Nyanzvi yeUkraine, Russia, neUSSR, uye pamusoro penyika, kumukira, humambo, uye dzidziso, ndiye munyori wemabhuku gumi ekunyepedzera, pamwe neImperial Ends: Kuora, Kuputsika, uye Kumutsirwa kweHumambo uye Nei Humambo Huchidzoka: Imperial Collapse uye Imperial Revival muKuenzanisa Maonero.

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