Kutaura pamusoro pesimba rakashata reRussia

Vazhinji vakanga vazivisa nyevero pamusoro pesimba rine ngozi reRussia pasi rose kare hurumende yaPutin isati yatanga kurwisa Ukraine zvine utsinye muna 2022. Asi, panguva iyoyo, yambiro idzodzo dzakarambwa. Nekudaro, mushure mekurwiswa kwakazara kweRussia, zvave pachena kuti kugadzirisa kufurira kwakashata kwakakosha - izvo zvakaitika muUkraine zvinogona kupararira kune dzimwe nyika nyore. nyora Dr Helena Ivanov, ari muBelgrade, Serbia iLSE mudzidzi uye Associate Research Fellow paHenry Jackson Society, uye Mykola Kuzmin weHenry Jackson Society.

Vazhinji vaitarisira kuti, zvichitevera kupinda kweRussia nechisimba muUkraine uye zvirango zvisati zvamboitika, kugona kweRussia kurwa hondo yayo yakasanganiswa pasi rose kwaizodzikiswa. Nekudaro, sezvakaratidzwa nemusangano wazvino weCOP29, pesvedzero yeRussia uye kugona kupindira kunoramba kwakanyanya. Izvi zvakabuda pachena mukutungamira kuCOP29, uko kurambidzwa kweRussia kwakatanga kuisa njodzi yekukanganisa kusarudzwa kwenyika inotambira, sezvo “Rashiya yakavhara kusarudzwa kwenyika dzese dzakashora kupinda kwayo muUkraine". Uyezve, yaive Russia iyo pakupedzisira "broker chibvumirano chaizoona Azerbaijan ichidzosa vasungwa vehondo makumi matatu nevaviri vekuArmenia uye Armenia ichisiya kushora kwayo pachirongwa cheAzerbaijan cheCOP32”.

Nepo huwandu hwakazara hwekupindira kweRussia hunoramba huchinetsa kuverengera, mhedzisiro yacho hairambike: shanduko mumanzwiro everuzhinji uye kunyangwe mhedzisiro yezvematongerwo enyika. Zvisinei nekuedza kwakabatana kuipikisa, kugona kweRussia kurwa hondo dzakasanganiswa kunoenderera mberi kusingadzorwi. Iyo Kremlin inoramba iine pesvedzero pamusoro pevatungamiriri vanozvimiririra, vachikanganisa nyika mudunhu rese. Mune zvimwe zviitiko, Russia yakabudirira kushandisa vatungamiri vanozvimirira kuti vaparadze masangano egutsaruzhinji; mune dzimwe, maonero eruzhinji, akaumbwa nenhema dzeRussia, anomanikidza vatungamiriri kuti vawirirane nezvido zveMoscow.

Kuburikidza nemaitiro aya, Russia inodyara kusagadzikana munharaunda yayo uku ichisimbisa kubata kwayo pamusoro penzvimbo yayo yekukurudzira.

Izvi zvinonyanya kuoneka muMoldova, Georgia, uye Serbia, uko unyanzvi hweRussia hunosimbiswa nemamiriro ezvinhu akasiyana-siyana enyika imwe neimwe. MuMoldova neGeorgia, Russia yakatora hutongi hwedzimwe nzvimbo dzenzvimbo dzayo kuburikidza nechisimba chemauto.

In Morodhovha, inotarisira Transnistria (inenge 12% yenharaunda), uye mu Georgia, inogara Abkhazia neSouth Ossetia (20% yenharaunda). MuGeorgia, Russia yakaruramisa zviito zvayo nekupomera genocide pamusoro pehuwandu hweRussia - zvakafanana nemuna Ukireni zvichitevera kurwisa kwayo kwakazara muna 2022. MuMoldova, zvisinei, Russia yakati kuvapo kwayo kwaidiwa kudzivirira nzvimbo dzokuchengetera zvombo pashure peSoviet uye kuita seuto rokuchengetedza runyararo. MuMoldova neGeorgia, matunhu ane vanhu vakawanda vanotaura chiRussian akazova nzvimbo dzinonyanya kutaurwa.

KuSerbia, maonero eRussia paKosovo - kwainoramba kucherechedza rusununguko rweKosovo - zvakasanganiswa nemafungiro erutsigiro rweRussia kubva kuma1990, zvakakonzera zvakanyanya maonero eSerbia kuRussia. Tsvakurudzo inoratidza kuti a vazhinji veSerbs vangada kuenderana neRussia pamusoro peMadokero, zvisinei neSerbia's mumiriri weEU. Zvakare, Serbia yakaramba kuisa zvirango kuRussia mukupindura hutsinye hwaPutin muUkraine, uye zvinoita sezvisingaite kuchinja maitiro aya. Gwaro iri haringoenzanise Serbia chete neMoscow asiwo rinobvumira nhepfenyuro dzehurumende yeRussia dzakadai seSputnik neRussia Nhasi, kuti dzirambe dzichitepfenyura muSerbia. Nekuda kweizvozvo, nganonyorwa dzeRussia dzinoramba dzichiumba maonero eruzhinji uye kusimbisa manzwiro echiRussia, zvichipa Russia nzvimbo yakasarudzika mudunhu.

Padivi pezvakasiyana zviitiko zvenhoroondo zvinoramba zvichiumba hukama neRussia, Serbia, Moldova, neGeorgia vanogovana imwe tambo yakafanana: kupatsanura kunoramba kuripo pakati pemapoka epro-Western uye pro-Russian - kupatsanura Russia inogara ichikurumidza uye ichishuvira kushandisa. Nyika nhatu dzese dzinoshuvira kudzamisa hukama hwadzo neWest uye kubata mumiriri weEU. Zvakadaro kurongeka uku kuMadokero kunopa dambudziko rakananga kuna Putin, uyo akarondedzera zvine mukurumbira kudonha kweUSSR se "iyo mukuru ngwavaira yezvamatongerwe enyika yezana rino ramakore” uye kubvira ipapo yakavavarira kuchengeta pesvedzero yeMoscow paichimbova nharaunda dzeSoviet.

Serbia, zvisinei, ine yakakosha kukosha kwaPutin, sekusimbisa pesvedzero ipapo, inopa Russia kusimudzira munzvimbo zhinji yeYugoslavia. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kupindira kwaPutin munyika nhatu idzi kwagara kwakanangana nemafungiro eEU, vachitsvaga kunetesa rutsigiro rweveruzhinji rwekubatana kweWestern. Munyika mbiri dzeMoldova neGeorgia izvi zvinonyanya kuoneka mumakwikwi esarudzo, ukuwo kuSerbia zvakakanganisa mafungiro ekupinda muEU.

MuMoldova, Maia Sandu, mumiriri weEU, akawana kukunda musarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika ne55% yevhoti. Nekudaro, akakundwa mumusha nemukwikwidzi wake wepro-Russian, Stoianoglo, uyo akawana 51% yevhoti mukati menyika. Kubudirira kwekupedzisira kwaSandu kwakakonzerwa nerutsigiro rwakakura kubva kuMoldovan diaspora, 83% yavo vakamutsigira - kunyanya, vavhoti ava vaisanyanya kukanganiswa neRussian disinformation campaigns. Saizvozvo, Moldova yakadzivira nepadiki kudzoka shure muzvishuvo zvayo zvekubatana kweEurope, iine chete. 50.4% yevanhu vanotsigira EU mureferendamu yakakwikwidzwa.

Nenzira isingashamisi, kwakanga kune mishumo yakawanda yokupindira kweRussia musarudzo dzeMoldova kupfurikidza nedanidziro yokusaziva, zvinetso zvakarongwa, uye kusarudzwa kwerondedzero. Zvakaonekwa kuti kutamiswa kwevavhoti zvisiri pamutemo kubva kuTransnistria uye kutakurwa kwakarongwa kwevavhoti veMoldova kubva kuRussia kwanga kuchiitika, paine humbowo hwevhidhiyo hunoratidza kuedza kwakabatana kuunganidza vavhoti ava.

Pamusoro pezvo, bazi rekune dzimwe nyika reMoldova rakazivisa kutyisidzira kwebhomba renhema munzvimbo dzekuvhotera muFrankfurt, Germany, uye kuUK, kusanganisira muLiverpool neNorthampton, izvo zvaiita sekunge kuri kuedza nemaune kukanganisa vhoti nekudyara nyonganiso.

Mapato anopikisa muMoldova akasimudzirawo rhetoric inodaidzira kuchengetedzwa kweRussia, ichiratidza kubatanidzwa kweEU sekutyisidzira hutongi hwenyika. Mazano aya haana kungonangana nekunyengedza zvakabuda musarudzo chete asiwo kuderedza chivimbo muhurongwa hwegutsaruzhinji hweMoldova. Zvakadaro, kunyangwe nekuedza kukuru kweMoscow, Moldova ichiri kuenderera mberi nekutsigira kuzvipira kwayo kutevera kubatana kweEU.

Asi zviitiko zvichangoburwa zvinoratidza kuti Russia yaive pedyo zvakadii pakuchinja mamiriro aya. Hutongi hweveruzhinji hweMoldova hunoramba husina kusimba, nekushaikwa kwedziviriro yepamutemo yevakuru vakuru uye nyaya dzezvitupa dzisina kugadziriswa, izvo zvadzoresa kufambira mberi kwenyika kuenda kunhengo yeEU. Aya matambudziko emukati anoita kuti Moldova iwedzere panjodzi yekurudziro yeRussia, ichimisa zvishuwo zvayo zveEurope uye yakazvimirira kusarudza mibatanidzwa.

Mamiriro ezvinhu muGeorgia anotonyanya kunetsa - sezvo Russia iri kuramba ichiparadzira disinformation yayo munyika yose, asi zvakare, ine masimba pamusoro pemapato akakosha ezvematongerwo enyika. Kambani yeGeorgia yakambovimbisa kuve nhengo yeEU, iyo yakamutswa nekupinda kweRussia muna 2008, yakamira zvakanyanya.

Bato rinomiririra reRussian Dream party, rakavambwa muna 2012 naBillionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili - rainzi 'the murume uyo akatenga nyika 'yekutonga kwake pamusoro pe25% yeGDP yeGeorgia - akaita basa guru mukuchinja uku. Ivanishvili akaita hupfumi hwake muRussia, uye hupfumi hwake hunoramba huri pedyo neMoscow, huchikonzera maitiro ebato nemitemo yaro.

Mumakore gumi apfuura, Zviroto zveGeorgia zvakadzora zvishuwo zvenyika zveEU zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichidzika mitemo ine gakava yakaita sebhiri re "mumiririri wekunze" uye matanho ekurwisa LGBTQ, izvo zvakonzera kuratidzira muTbilisi. Kutanga kwegore rino, bhidhiyo yenhengo yeGeorgia yeEU yakambomira zvakanaka nekuda kwekunetseka kuri kukura pamusoro pekudzikira kwekodzero dzevanhu uye kudzvanyirirwa kuri kuwedzera. Mukupindura, United States yakatora danho rakasimba, rinosimbisa sanctions pamusoro peGeorgian Dream vezvematongerwo enyika nemapurisa ane mhosva yekudzvinyirirwa uye mhirizhonga kune varatidziri.

Mukupesana nezvishuvo zveMoldova zveEU, bato rinotonga reGeorgia rakaronga kuwirirana neRussia senzira chete yekudzivisa rudzi rwenjodzi inotungamirwa neWestern inoonekwa muUkraine, vachishandisa sirogani yemushandirapamwe.Iti kwete kuhondo! Sarudza rugare!" Nyaya iyi yakasimbiswa nemifananidzo yakajeka yemaguta eUkraine akaparadzwa nemabhomba eRussia, nechinangwa chekuratidzira Russia sesimba rinodzikamisa mudunhu.

Sarudzo pachayo yakava muenzaniso webhuku rekuti nzira dzegutsaruzhinji dzinogona kuparadzwa sei, zvichikonzera kusava nechokwadi kwakanyanya pamusoro pekuti vhoti inganzi yakasununguka zvechokwadi here. Kunyangwe zvipingamupinyi kune zvakabuda musarudzo, chokwadi chakaoma chinoramba chiripo: Russia yakakunda munhandare yehondo muGeorgia. Kunyange kana vanopikisa vakabudirira kusava nechokwadi nekodzero yevhoti, kunonoka kugadzirisa nyaya idzi, pamwe chete nekutya kwakapararira kwechisimba cheRussia, kwave kutotora kuziva kwevanhu.

MuSerbia, pesvedzero yeRussia inoramba yakasimba, nehutongi hwaPutin hunoonekwa zvakanaka nevakawanda.

Mafungiro aya anokonzerwa nekuramba kweRussia kucherechedza rusununguko rweKosovo asi zvakare akakurudzirwa zvakanyanya nekuwanda kwenhau dzeRussia nenganonyorwa munyika. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kunyangwe hurumende yeSerbia yaida kuderedza hukama neRussia, yaizotarisana nekupokana neruzhinji.

Kubva, Kukadzi 2022, Serbia yanga ichifamba izvo zvinowanzonzi 'the kuenzanisa kuita' pasi peMutungamiri Vucic. Kunyangwe iri nyika inomirira EU uye yakazvipira zviri pamutemo kujoina bloc, Serbia yaramba kutemera Russia zvirango. Vakuru vehurumende vepamusoro vanogara vachisangana naPutin nevamwe vatungamiri veRussia, vachisimbisa hukama hwakasimba pakati penyika mbiri idzi. Huwandu hweSerbia hunoramba hwakanyanya pro-Russian, uye kuenderera mberi kwekuvapo kweRussia state media media, seSputnik neRussia Nhasi, inoita basa rakakosha mukusimudzira hurongwa hweMoscow. As Reporters Without Borders anoti: “Russian nhoroondo dzinorongedzerwa vateereri veko dzisati dzaparadzirwa mudunhu rose” kuburikidza neaya midhiya chiteshi.

Kurudziro yeparaganda yeRussia iri kuoneka zvakare mukukura kuri kuita hukama neveMadokero, nedzimwe nyanzvi dzichifanotaura kuti, kana referendamu yenhengo yeEU ikaitwa mangwana, chete. 43% yevaSerb vaizotsigira kupinda muEU.

Zvichakadaro, Serbia inoramba ichibatana nevakuru veEU, nekushanya kwevatungamiriri vepamusoro vakaita saChancellor weGerman uye Mutungamiriri weFrance kutanga kwegore. Pasinei nemakore maviri ekuedza, zvisinei, EU nedzimwe sangano rekuMadokero vakanetseka kunyengetedza hurumende yeSerbia kuti iende kure neRussia. Zvakanyanya kukosha, havasati vaita zvakakosha mukuchinja maonero eruzhinji rweSerbia kubva kuRussia uye kuenda kuMadokero.

Moldova, Georgia, neSerbia imwe neimwe inoratidza simba rakasimba reRussia rinogona kubata pamusoro peruzhinji, kuwana hukuru hwezvematongerwo enyika munyika idzi. Nepo nzira yeGeorgia yeEU yakamira uye Moldova neSerbia vakatarisana nematambudziko makuru, mamiriro acho haagone kugadziriswa. Zvisinei, kukwanisa kweRussia kushandisa kupesana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kushandisa pfungwa dzevanhu hakugoni kurerutswa. Kudzika kwatinotarisa mumamiriro ezvinhu, kunowedzera kujeka kuti zviito zveRussia zvine maonero akarongeka, zvichiita pasi rakaorera rekuita kwayo kudzika midzi.

Kuchengetedza mibatanidzwa yedemocracy uye hunhu, zvakakosha kuti ticherechedze kudzika kwesimba reRussia uye kugadzirisa kupindira kwayo nemaitiro, anobudirira mazano anosimbisa kusimba uye kukurudzira ruzivo, rwakazvimiririra maonero eruzhinji munyika idzi. Pamusoro pezvo, zvakakosha kuti nyika dzekuMadokero dzifunge dzakazvimiririra hurongwa hwayo hwakananga kunyika idzi. Tsvagiridzo inoratidza kuti kudzikira kwerutsigiro kuMadokero hakusi nekuda kwekuyemura Putin kana kupindira kweRussia asi zvakare kwakadzika midzi. zvakazvimirira-akabatwa maonero asina kunaka eMadokero.

Naizvozvo, nyika dzekuMadokero dzinofanirwa kukoshesa kuedza kuhwina mwoyo nepfungwa dzevanhu vari kumatunhu kwainovavarira kuchengetedza simba rayo.

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