Kutyisidzira kwakavanzika kweRussia

Mumazuva ano achangopfuura aKurume, iyo Kremlin yakawedzera tsigiro yezvinhu zvayo zvepro-Russian mumaguta mazhinji eEurope. Kuburikidza nezviito izvi, pasi pechifukidzo chemisangano uye kuratidzira, Russia iri kupinza varwi uye vanonyanyisa munzvimbo yeEurope, vachiedza kuderedza uye kukanganisa mamiriro acho ezvinhu.

Kuonekwa kunenge panguva imwe chete kwevatsigiri vegwaro raPutin mumigwagwa yemaguta eEurope kunoshamisa sehuwandu hwevatsigiri ava. Sezviri pachena, iyi ndiyo nhamba iyo Kremlin inokwanisa kubhadhara mumamiriro ehondo yakazara neUkraine uye pasi pekumanikidzwa kubva kune zvirango.

Misangano yevatsigiri veRussia yakarongwa muSpain, Czech Republic, Moldova, uye zviratidzo zvekutsigira mutemo weMoscow muSwitzerland nePoland, maererano naPutin, zvinofanira kuratidza kuti Russia ine vatsigiri vayo mumaguta akawanda eEurope. Asi, uku kuratidzwa kwakawiriraniswa kwekuratidzira kwepro-Russian kunongosimbisa zano renguva refu reKremlin rekupa mari zvisiri pamutemo mafambisirwo emagetsi nekuruboshwe muEurope.

Mukupindura, ivo vanowanzo pikisa kubatana kweEurope uye vanotsvaga zvishuwo zveRussia munyika dzekumba kwavo. Vamiriri veRussia vepesvedzero inotyisa yakavanzika uye ine njodzi iyo, zvinosuruvarisa, yakatarisana nenyika zhinji dzeEurope. Ava vanowanzova vagariwo zvavo vanonzwira tsitsi kuRussia, vatami veRussia, uye vamiriri vemasangano ezvematongerwo enyika. Iri iboka revanhu vekuEurope iro masevhisi ehungwaru eRussia anoona sevanhu vakanangwa vanozobatsira mukuyedza kukanganisa Europe.

Musangano wevatsigiri vebato rePro-Russian Shor, wakaitwa musi wa12 Kurume muChisinau, kwaive kuedza kwakadaro. Yakanga ichiperekedzwa namashoko anoshora hurumende, uye ikoku kwakanga kusiri chinhu chitsva kuvakuru vakuru veMoldova kana kuti Europe. Pakanga paine kuyedza kudzikisira mamiriro muMoldova mumatsutso a2022, uye masevhisi eRussia akakosha aive kumashure kwekuedza uku, vachishandisa mapato epro-Russian Moldovan nezvinangwa zvavo. Nezuro, pane chiitiko chakaitika panhandare yendege yeChisinau, panguva iyo musungwa weWagner PMC akasungwa akadzokera kunyika kwaakabva. Zviripachena kuti izvi zvakare hazvina tsaona nekuti kana iyo Kremlin ichitumira Wagner mercenaries kuEU, iri kuita kunonoka kuita "nguva bhomba" kumisikidza sero yekurara iyo inogona kuzoshandiswa kukanganisa Europe. Saka, pasi pechiratidziro chekuratidzira, misangano, uye zviito zvakasiyana, Russia iri kuyedza kupinza vamiririri vayo vazhinji vepesvedzero sezvinobvira munyika dzeEurope kuti iite kuti mamiriro acho ezvinhu arege kugadzikana.

Putin anoenderera mberi nekuona Madokero semhandu yake, uye anoda kunetesa, kupatsanura, nekuinyima kubatana nesimba. Iyo Kremlin inoona Russian hybrid hutsinye sechinhu chakakosha chehurongwa. Ndosaka zviremera zveRussia zvisiri kungoronga chete asi sezviri pachena zvakatotanga kuita mabasa avo ekuparadza uye kuparadza munyika dzakasiyana dzeEurope, nekudaro vachiedza kutsausa pfungwa kubva kuhondo muUkraine uye kuvhara kutadza kwavo kumberi.

Misangano ichangoburwa yepro-Russian muBilbao, Prague, Chisinau, uye kuyedza kuwana Wagner mercenary muMoldova inogona kutorwa sechikamu cheiyo Kremlin chirongwa. Kudzikira kukuru kwehuwandu hwevanhu vaWagner mune dzimwe nyika dzeAfrica - Central African Republic, Mali, neDemocratic Republic of Congo - kunoenderana nechirongwa ichi. Zvinozivikanwa kuti zvishoma 5,000 Russian mercenaries akanga ari munyika idzi kusvikira March 2023. Asi ikozvino nhamba yavo yakaderera neinenge 10%. Vamwe vaongorori vanotenda kuti vazhinji vemazana mazana mashanu emauto eRussia akasiya Africa anogara muEurope. Asi nepo varwi veRussia vari kuedza kupinda muMoldova zvinenge pachena, pasina kutya kukuru, nzira yavo kuenda kunyika dzeEU/NATO ichave yakahwanda uye nekuchenjerera.

Pano zvakakosha kuyeuka kuti Moscow "yakadyara" sei masaboteurs mumaguta eUkraine manheru ekupinda kwakazara. Zvinozivikanwa kuti vamwe vavo vakagara muUkraine makore 2-3 hondo isati yatanga. Zvadaro zvose zvakaenda maererano neRussia playbook: hupenyu hwemazuva ose mumaguta eUkraine. Panguva imwecheteyo, ma-saboteurs aive achiwana ruzivo rwakakosha uye nekuita maitirwo mumadenderedzwa ekufarira kwavo. Zvese izvi zvakaitwa kuitira kushandisa njere idzi panguva yekurwiswa nemauto eRussia. Kuramba kwakashinga kwevarwi veUkraine chete uye kubatanidzwa kwakakwana kwevanhu veUkraine pamberi pemuvengi aipinda nechisimba kwakakanganisa zvirongwa zvavo.

Kubva pakatanga kupindirwa neRussia uye mushure mekuchinja kwehondo yeRussia-Ukrainian, Moscow yatanga kukanda vamiririri vayo mukurwisana zvakanyanya nezvematongerwo enyika uye ruzivo rwekururamisa hugandanga hweRussia, mhosva dzehondo uye kuponda.

Nekuronga misangano yepro-Russian, Moscow inoda kutumira meseji kuhurumende dzeEurope kuti kune mauto mazhinji ezvematongerwo enyika uye vagari venyika dzeEurope vanonzi vanotsigira marongero aPutin. Nenzira iyi, Kremlin inoda kusimudza kumwe kusava nechokwadi pakati pehuwandu hwenyika idzi nezvekubatana kweWest mukurwisa hutsinye hweRussia. Pamusoro pezvo, mune yeEurope, Putin ari kutsvaga zano rakanyanya kuomarara, sevanoparadza vari vatsigiri veRussia - mapato ezvematongerwo enyika, vatungamiriri, uye vamiriri vemasangano ebhizinesi vane chido chekubatana neRussia.

Moscow inoshandisa kupokana pakati penyika dzeEurope, kutanga kubva kumatambudziko emagariro nehupfumi uye kuyedza kutsanangura chikonzero chavo murutsigiro rwakapihwa kuUkraine. Nekuda kwehunyanzvi uhu, nzvimbo yekurwisa hondo muEurope iri kuita mubatsiri weKremlin nekusaziva. Iyo Russian diaspora, iyo yakapararira munyika dzakawanda dzeEurope, inoita basa rakakosha mune izvi zvinokanganisa maitiro. Kune vakawanda vokuRussia muEurope, asi havana kuva chikamu chenyika yeEurope, havabvumi uye havagoverani tsika dzeEurope nemararamiro kunyange mushure memakore ekugara ikoko. Ndosaka vachiramba vari nharaunda yakanaka kune vanonyanyisa kuronga kuparadza.

Semuenzaniso, basa rekupandukira rakaitwa neRussian diaspora muGermany kuzadza mabhokisi etsamba eGermany netsamba dzisingazivikanwe dzaidaidzira kuti nekuchimbidza ndege kubva kuGermany ichiti United States yaironga kurwisa. Chirongwa ichi chakatangwa panguva imwe chete nemisangano yepro-Russian muEU. Kana tikawedzera kune iyi cocktail yezviitiko zvekupandukira chokwadi chekuti Wagner mercenaries akatogara mumaguta eEurope uye ane ruzivo rwekurwisa uye hunyanzvi mukuita hugandanga nekuparadza, musanganiswa unoputika. Zviri pachena kuti Putin akatanga nhanho nyowani yehutsinye hwehutsinye hunopesana neEurope pamusoro pekutadza kwake kwemauto uye kumanikidzwa kwezvirango, mukuyedza kukanganisa kubatanidzwa kwepasirese kwerutsigiro rweUkraine.

Kremlin's hybrid hutsinye inoenderera mberi, ichiedza kupinda mukati meEuropean space. Apa ndipo panowanikwa varwi veRussian mercenaries uye rally zvinhu zvine njodzi zvinogadzira nzira yekuti muvengi azadzise chiroto chake chekutsemura nekupedza simba Europe. Kudzivirira izvi kuti zvisaitike, kutyisidzira kwekuvanda kweRussia kunyanyisa kunofanirwa kufukunurwa uye kuderedzwa nhasi, nekuti mangwana anogona kunonoka.

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