Mavhiki mana ehondo anokuvadza hupfumi hweRussia

Zvirango zvakakura zvakatemerwa neRussia mushure mekupinda muUkraine musi wa24 Kukadzi zvakabvarura nyika kubva muhurongwa hwezvemari hwepasi rose uye zvakaita kuti hupfumi hwayo huderere.

Mwedzi mumwe gare gare, mari yeRussia yakarasikirwa nehuwandu hwayo hwekukosha kwayo uye masheya ayo nemabhondi zvakabviswa kubva kune indexes. Vanhu vomunyika yacho vari kutambura marwadzo oupfumi angangogara kwemakore akawanda.

KUNYANYA KUNYANYA KWEZVINOGONA

Sekureva kweWorld Bank, Russia ndiyo yaive nyika yechigumi neimwe pakukura muna 11. Inogona kunge isingakwikwidzi kupfuura Nha. Acronym BRIC kureva matunhu mana makuru ari kusimukira Brazil. India, China, Russia neIndia.

Kuderera kunoratidzika kunge kusingadzivisiki. Sekutaura kwebhanga guru renyika, nyanzvi munyaya dzezvehupfumi dziri kutarisira kudzikira nezvikamu zvisere kubva muzana muhupfumi hwegore rino pamwe nezvikamu makumi maviri kubva muzana.

Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dziri kunze kweRussia dzine fungidziro dzakaipa. The Institute of International Finance inofanotaura nezve 15% contraction ye2022 uye 3% contraction ye2023.

IIF yakataura muchinyorwa kuti "Zvinhu zvese zvinotariswa, fungidziro dzedu dzinoratidza kuti zviri kuitika zvino zvichabvisa hupfumi hwemakore angangoita gumi nemashanu."

INFLATION BUSTING INOCHINJA KUVA guruva

Elvira Nabirullina, gavhuna webhanga guru renyika, akabudirira zvikuru kubva paakasarudzwa muna 2013. Akakwanisa kuderedza inflation kubva pa17% muna 2015 kusvika painodarika 2% mumakore ekutanga a2018. Mumashure medenda, mitengo yakakwira. uye akashora vemaindasitiri kuti vakwidze mibereko kwemwedzi misere inotevedzana.

Nabiullina akarambawo kutevedzera kufona kwekutonga kwemari muna 2014-2015 kumisa kubuda mushure meCrimea yakabatanidzwa.

Izvi zvakabudirira zvakabvarurwa kuita zvidimbu mukati memwedzi usingasviki.

Kukura kwemutengo wegore negore kwakawedzera kusvika ku14.5%. Inofanira kudarika 20%, kashanu-kashanu chinangwa. Izvo zvinotarisirwa kukwira kwemitengo yemhuri kwegore rinotevera zvakakwirira kupfuura 18%, rekodhi yemakore gumi nerimwe.

Kutya-kutenga maakaundi anogona kushandiswa kune mamwe aya, asi kushaya simba kweRuble kunogona kuchengetedza mitengo yakakwira.

Nabiullina akamanikidzwa neveRussian frozen reserves warchest kuwedzera mubereko uye kushandisa kudzora mari musi waFebruary 28. Bhanga guru renyika rinotarisira kuti inflation ichadzokera kune chinangwa muna 2024.

INDEX KUBVISA

Vanopa index vari kumanikidzwa kubvisa Russia kubva pamabhenji anoshandiswa nevashandisi kuisa mabhiriyoni mumisika iri kusimukira nezvirango.

JPMorgan (.JPMEGDR.) uye MSCI vose vakazivisa kuti vachabvisa Russia kubva kune yavo stock uye bond indexes (.MSCIEF.).

Chinzvimbo cheRussia mune idzi indexes chakange chatokanganiswa nezvirango zvekuMadokero zve2014 na2018, izvo zvakatevera kupiswa kweaimbova musori wekuRussia muBritain, uye kuferefetwa kwekupindira kweRussia musarudzo dzeUS muna 2016.

Vanenge vese vakuru vanopa index vanochaya huremu hweRussia kusvika zero munaKurume 31.

RATES RUPTURE

Mauto eRussia akapinda muUkraine muna 2014, uye Ukraine yaive nechikwereti che "investment-giredhi" kubva kumasangano makuru matatu S&P Global Moody's, Fitch, uye Moody's.

Izvi zvakaibvumira kukwereta zvakachipa, uye kusamira pane changamire chikwereti kwairatidzika kure.

Russia yakaona yakazvimirira kiredhiti mamakisi ichitambura zvakanyanya kuderedzwa mumavhiki mana apfuura. Russia parizvino iri pazasi pezviyero, zvichiratidza njodzi iri pedyo yekutadza.

RUBLE DAMBUDZIKO

Avhareji yekutsinhana kweRuble mugore rapfuura yaive madhora makumi manomwe nemana padhora. Mapuratifomu akasiyana airatidza kupararira kwakasimba uye mari yakawanda inotarisirwa mumari huru yemusika uri kusimukira.

Zvese izvozvo zvachinja. Bhanga guru renyika rave risina huwandu hwaro hwemari yaro yakaoma, ruble yakadzika kusvika kune yakaderera inopfuura madhora zana nemakumi maviri padhora. Yakanga yakaderera se120 inopesana negreenback mukutengeserana kwekunze.

Mitengo yeRuble yawedzera kuoma sezvo liquidity yakaderera uye bhidhiti / kubvunza kupararira kwakawedzera. Chiyero pakati pemahombekombe negungwa chichiri kuwanikwa pamutengo wekuchinjana.