Kugadziriswazve kwekuchengetedzwa kuMiddle East hakuzodzivisiki mushure mehondo yaNetanyahu naTrump

Chibvumirano cheKunzwisisana (MOU) chakasainwa neUS neIran chinotiudza kuti nyaya dzese dzakaoma (semuenzaniso, remangwana reIran rine uranium yakawanda, zvivakwa zvayo zve ballistic zvombo, magumo ezvinhu zveIran zvakachengetwa, nezvimwewo) zvichakurukurwa mumazuva makumi mashanu nemashanu anotevera, anonyora Vidya S. Sharma, Ph. D.

Nyaya imwe neimwe iyi inogona kukanganisa chibvumirano chekumisa hondo. Pamwe, chinhu chinonyanya kukonzera kusagadzikana ndechekuti Prime Minister weIsrael (akabata Mutungamiri Trump kuti arwise Iran pakutanga, sezvandichakurukura gare gare) haasi bato rechibvumirano ichi. Netanyahu haanzwi akasungwa nechibvumirano saka ari kuedza kukanganisa chibvumirano ichi nekutsiva zvisina kufanira (sezvaakaita kuGaza Strip kwemakore anoda kusvika maviri nehafu) kumhinduro dzeHezbollah kumaodzanyemba kweLebanon. Israel icharega here kutamba basa rekuvhiringidza? Svondo rapfuura, Mutevedzeri weMutungamiri Vance Makurukota eHurumende yeIsrael akadzingwa nekuda kwekutsoropodza MOU.

Zvakawanda zvatove zvakanyorwa/zvakataurwa nevaongorori vezvekuchengetedza nenyanzvi dzezvemitemo yekunze pamusoro pekuti Hondo yeIsrael neUS neIran ingapera sei, kuti ndiani ane makadhi ari nani (kushandisa chirevo chaPresident Trump) evarwi vatatu ava, kana kuti nzira dzekudzorera/kuderedza kukwira kwehondo dziripo kuIran kana kuUS. ​​Handidi kufamba munzira iyoyo yakafambiswa zvakanaka.

Ichi ndicho chekutanga muzvinyorwa zvitatu zvakatevedzana. Pano, ndinoda kutanga ndakurukura muchidimbu zvakaitika shure zvakakonzera hondo iyi kuti ndipindure mubvunzo wekuti hondo iyi yakaparadza sei magadzirirwo ekuchengetedza ayo nhengo dzeGCC kana Gulf Cooperation Council (kureva, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, neKuwait) dzakavaka (a) kuzvidzivirira kubva kunjodzi dzekunze; uye (b) dzakazoshandisa mari yacho kuti dzisiyanise hupfumi hwavo nekuzvishambadza senzvimbo yakagadzikana yezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi uye mamiriro ekunze akasununguka munharaunda ine gakava risingaperi.

Saka ndinoda kutaura kuti kana GCC States dzikaramba dzichipesana nemakakatanwa epakati penyika nekuda kwekuchengetedzwa kwevanhu vose, hurongwa hutsva hwekuchengetedza hungave hwakaita sei.

Muchinyorwa chechipiri, ndinoda kukurukura kuti nhengo mbiri dzakakosha dzeGCC, kureva Saudi Arabia neUAE, dzinogona sei kupindura mushure mehondo iyi uye kuti ndeapi marongero ekuchengetedza angangobuda. Uye muchinyorwa chechitatu ndinokurukura kuti US yakaparadza sei kuvimbika kwayo senyika ine simba repasi rose nezviitiko zvayo zvakaipa zveIran.

A. Zvivakwa zvekuchengetedza zviripo uye kuparara kwazvo

KUSAVIMBA KWAKAWANDA

Mavhiki mashoma apfuura, achipindura chisarudzo chaTrump chekumbomira kusarudza pachirongwa cheMOU, mukuru wekutaurirana kweIran, Jenerali Ghalibaf, vakati Tehran haina kuvimba neWashington uye kuti "Hapana matanho achatorwa rimwe divi risati ratanga kuita chimwe chinhu."

MuIran, nhengo dze boka rine simba, rinoziva zvenhau (vachitungamirwa naEbrahim Azizi, mukuru wemakomiti eParamende ekuchengetedza nyika nezvematongerwo enyika) vari kuramba chibvumirano ichi. Saizvozvowo, Israel iri kuedza kukanganisa misangano yekutaurirana nekuenderera mberi nemabasa ayo ehondo muRebhanoni uye nekutaura pachena kuti ine chisungo chechero chibvumirano pakati peUS neIran.

Kunyange hazvo bato reAzizi richimiririra maonero evashoma muhurumende uye pakati pevanhuwo zvavo vekuIran, Israel, kune rumwe rutivi, ine simba rezvematongerwo enyika rakakwana pakati pevamiriri vemitemo vekuUS nevanoita sarudzo muWashington zvekuti ine simba rekukanganisa chero chibvumirano.

Iran ine zvikonzero zvine musoro zvekusavimba neUS.

Muchinyorwa chake chaKurume 19 che The Economist, Gurukota rezvekunze reOman, VaSayyid-Badr-Albusaidi, vakanyora kuti, “Kaviri mumwedzi mipfumbamwe United States neIran dzave pedyo nekubvumirana panyaya yakaoma zvikuru inodziparadzanisa: chirongwa cheIran chesimba renyukireya uye kutya kweAmerica kuti chingave chirongwa chezvombo. Saka zvakashamisa asi hazvishamisi apo musi wa28 Kukadzi—maawa mashoma mushure mehurukuro dzichangoburwa uye dzakakosha—Israel neAmerica vakatangazve kurwisa zvisiri pamutemo kwemauto vachirwisa rugare rwakanga rwaita serunogoneka kwenguva pfupi.”

Hondo yega yega kana dambudziko riri kuMiddle East rinoguma rava dambudziko. Tiri kutungamira kune rimwe dambudziko. Dunhu iri rine shanduko inogara iripo, kusanzwisisika, kana matambudziko asina kugadziriswa (kana asingagadzirisike) uye inzvimbo yekutambira mhirizhonga nemasimba makuru epasi rose nematunhu emazuva ano.

GULF STATES: Kutsvaga kuchengetedzwa kwavo kunze

US yakasaina chibvumirano chayo chekutanga chekuchengetedza ne Umambo hweSaudi Arabia muna 1943 Mutungamiri Franklin D. Roosevelt paakazivisa kuti kudzivirira Saudi Arabia kwaikosha pakudzivirira United States. Zvadaro, muna 1945, US yakasaina chibvumirano che Chibvumirano cheNhandare yeNdege yeDhahran (yakazotumidzwa zita idzva gare gare

Mambo Abdul Aziz Airbase) neSaudi Arabia pamusangano pakati paMutungamiri Roosevelt naMambo Abdul Aziz vari muchikepe cheUSS Quincy. Chinangwa chezvibvumirano izvi chaive chekuti US ipe Saudi Arabia dziviriro kana yawana mafuta.

Bahrain, iyo yaive koloni yeUK kusvika muna 1971, yaitove nenhare yemauto ehondo eBritain kuJuffair.

Muna 1948, US Navy yakatanga kuvapo kwayo kwekutanga muGulf nekugadzira Middle East Force (MIDEASTFOR). Iyo yekupedzisira yakashandisa nzvimbo yeBritish naval senzvimbo yayo.

Bahrain payakawana kuzvitonga muna 1971, US yakasaina chibvumirano chekubatana neBahrain kuti ikwanise kupinda muchivako chengarava. Chivako ichi chakachinja zvishoma nezvishoma uye ikozvino chinoshanda semuzinda weUS Navy's Fifth Fleet.

Muna April 1978, Chimurenga cheSaur (= Chimurenga chaKubvumbi) chakaitika muAfghanistan zvikaita kuti nyika itorwe neCommunist. Muna Zvita 1979, Hondo yeSoviet yakapinda muAfghanistan (zvine musoro, vakakokwa nehurumende yeCommunist Afghanistan yakanga yava kuderera).

Panguva imwe chete iyoyo, Iran yaive mumhirizhonga nekuratidzira kwezuva nezuva vachipikisa Shah weIran. Hurumende yaShah (ichitsigirwa neUS) yaive nehutsinye uye ichidzvinyirira sehurumende yeIslam yeIran iripo. Kunyangwe mushure mekuuraya zviuru zvevaratidziri, hurumende yaShah haina kukwanisa kudzora kuratidzira. Shah akatiza munyika musi wa16 Ndira 1979 ndokuenda kuUS. ​​Hurumende yaCarter yakaronga nzvimbo yekugara kwenguva refu yaShah nemhuri yake muEgypt.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini akadzokera kuIran kubva kuutapwa hwake kuFrance musi wa 1 February 1979, uye reIslamic Republic yeIran yakavambwa zviri pamutemo musi wa1 Kubvumbi 1979.

US yakashandisa zviitiko izvi kumanikidza Oman kuti isaine chibvumirano ichi Chibvumirano cheKupinda muna 1980 izvo zvakapa mauto eUS mukana wakakosha wekupinda munhandare dzendege dzeOmani (dzakadai seMasirah Island) nezviteshi zvengarava.

Kupinda kweKuwait nemutungamiri weIraq Saddam Hussein Hondo yekutanga yeGulf ya990-1991) zvakaguma nekuumbwa kweGulf Cooperation Council (GCC) uye nhengo dzayo dzakasaina Zvibvumirano zveDziviriro dzeKushandira pamwe (DCAs) neUnited States: Kuwait: Gunyana 1991; Qatar: Chikumi 1992; uye United Arab Emirates (UAE): 1994.

Saudi Arabia nedzimwe nyika dzeGulf dzakasaina zvibvumirano izvi ndokuzviisa mumagwaro adzo. Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan (Emir weAbu Dhabi uye muvambi weUAE) ndiye wekupedzisira kusaina chibvumirano ichi uye ndiye wekutanga kuchiwana mari yacho.

Israel neUAE vane maonero akafanana pamusoro peIran. Munguva yehondo, UAE yakarova Iran kakawanda kwemazuva mazhinji vachibatsirana neUS neIsrael.

Saka, haisi tsaona kuti Iran yakasarudza UAE (yakarwiswa kanopfuura ka2800), kupfuura chero imwe nyika yeArab Gulf, kunyange kupfuura Israel. Chimwe chikonzero chingave ndechekuti ndiyo yaive nyore kurwiswa.

UAE ndiyo yakatanga kubvuma zviri pamutemo Israel (muna 2020), kunyangwe nyika mbiri idzi dzagara pamwe chete. vamiririri vekutengeserana kubvira muna 1996. Zvisinei, Iran inoita kunge yakakonzera kukuvara kwakanyanya kwehupfumi kuQatar (murevereri anoshanda zvikuru pakati peUS neIran). Oman yakabuda isina kukuvara zvakanyanya nekuda kwemutemo wayo wekunze usina kwawakarerekera.

Zvingashamisa vamwe vaverengi kuti US yakasaina chibvumirano chekutanga chekuchengetedza kuMiddle East nguva refu isati yasaina Chibvumirano cheInter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Chibvumirano cheRio), nenyika makumi maviri dzeLatin America musi wa2 Gunyana 1947. Sangano reNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) rakatanga kushanda pa 4 April 1949.

US haina kusiyana nedzimwe nyika dzehumambo. Inotevera zvainoona sezvido zvayo zvisina tsitsi.

Semuenzaniso, tKunyangwe chibvumirano cheRIO chichiri kushanda pamutemo, pazvinangwa zvese zvinoshanda chakafa panguva yeHondo yeFalklands ya1982 apo General Galtieri, Mutungamiriri weArgentina, akadana Chibvumirano cheRio achipikisa Great Britain, achitarisira rutsigiro kubva kunyika dzeLatin America, uye kunyanya kubva kuUS. ​​Pane kudaro, Ronald Reagan, Mutungamiriri weUnited States panguva iyoyo, akatsigira UK ndokuisa zvirango kuArgentina.

Handifanire kuyeuchidza vaverengi veEUReporter kuti Mutungamiri Trump anofungei nezveshamwari dzake dzeNATO uye kuti anogara achivatuka, kuvashungurudza, uye kuvabata nehasha.

Hondo yaMutungamiri Trump neIran yaita kuti hurongwa hwekuchengetedza hweGCC huripo husave husina basa, kana husina simba zvachose. Ndisati ndataura kuti hurongwa hwekuchengetedza huripo hunogona kuchinja sei, regai nditange ndatsanangura muchidimbu mavambo ehondo yeUS-Israel neIran iripo uye kuti tasvika sei pano.

Trump Anoenda kuhondo

Musi wa2 Kurume 2026, Gurukota rezvekunze reUS Marco Rubio akataura kuti nguva yekurwiswa kweIran neUSA yaitungamirirwa nekurwiswa kwairongwa neIsrael kuIran.

Maererano neAl Jazeera, "Mumiriri wepamusoro akaudza vatori venhau neMuvhuro kuti Washington yaiziva kuti Israel yaizorwisa Iran, uye kuti Tehran yaizotsiva zvido zveUS munharaunda iyi, saka mauto eUS akarwisa nekukasika."

Mutungamiri Trump, uyo asingambodi kupa pfungwa yekuti mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu kana zviito zvevamwe vanhu zvakamumanikidza kutora chero chiito, akapokana naRubio zuva rakatevera.

Mubhuku rakabudiswa munguva pfupi yapfuura, rinonzi “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump” vanyori (Jonathan Swan naMaggie Haberman, vese vari vatori venhau veWhite House veThe New York Times) vanotsanangura kuti Mutungamiri Trump akatevera sei mafungiro ake nerusaruro kuti aende kuhondo neIran pasinei nekusagutsikana kwakadzama kwakanyorwa nemutevedzeri wake weMutungamiriri uye kuongororwa kwehungwaru kusina tariro. Muchidimbu izvi ndizvo zviri kuitika. Swan naHaberman zvakawanikwa:

Kutaura kwekutengesa kwakasimba kwakaitwa neMutungamiriri weIsrael Benjamin Netanyahu uye kupikisa kwemukati menyika (kusanganisira sachigaro weJoint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine) zvakaita kuti Trump arwise Iran. Netanyahu akaratidza kubudirira nekukurumidza, huwandu hwevanhu vekuIran huri kuwedzera mukupandukira Hurumende yeRevolutionary Islamic, uye njodzi inogoneka. Achitevedzera kuzvikudza kwaTrump, Benjamin Netanyahu akataura kuti zvakapa Trump mukana wegoridhe wekuunza shanduko muhurumende muIran, chimwe chinhu chisina Mutungamiriri weUS akakwanisa kuita mumakore makumi mana nemashanu apfuura.

Trump, achifara nekubudirira kwake mukutora Mutungamiri weVenezuela Nicolás Maduro, akanzwawo kushinga kuti simba remauto eUS rinogona kuunza mhedzisiro yaidiwa.

Kusawirirana kuripo pakati pehurongwa hwaNetanyahu nekabhineti yaTrump kunofanira kushamisa munhu wese. Vaverengi veEUReporter vanogona kuyeuka kuti kubva pavanyori makumi mana nevana vakashanda muTrump Mark I Administration, ina chete vakamutsigira paakakwikwidza musarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika muna 2024.

Mubvunzurudzo naJoe Rogan, mutauriri wepodcast weparutivi rwerudyi ane simba uye nhengo yakakurumbira yekirabhu yaTrump yeMAGA, mazuva mashoma sarudzo dza2024 dzisati dzaitwa, Trump akati panguva yake yekutanga, chikanganiso chake chikuru kwaive kugadza. "vanhu vasina kuvimbika".

So Howard Lutnick, mumwe wevasachigaro vechikwata chekuchinja kwaTrump, akapihwa basa rekuona kuti vanhu vanogona kugadzwa 'vese vaizova kudivi rimwe chete' uye kuti vese vakagadzwa muHurumende yeTrump II vaizofanira kuratidza "kuvimbika kwavo nekuvimbika" kuna Mutungamiri Trump.

General Caine akasiyana munzira dzese kubva kune sachigaro wekare, Jenerali Mark A. Milley, uyo akataura pachena paakataura nharo dzake kuna VaTrump panguva yehutongi hwavo hwekutanga. General Milley akaona basa ravo serinomisa mutungamiri wenyika kutora matanho asina musoro. Pakanga pasina General Mattis kana General Kelley muSituation Room apo VaNetanyahu vakataura.

Mumwe wevanhu vakanga vasipo pamusangano uyu ndiTulsi Gabbard, Mutungamiriri weNational Intelligence, aitarisira kuronga ruzivo rwemasangano ese gumi nemasere ehungwaru (ehurumende nekudzivirira). Asi, akanga akabatikana nekuongorora mavhoti akatorwa musarudzo dza2020 muGeorgia.

Munhu anoshamisika kuti dai aripo angadai akabatsira chii. Haana ruzivo rwezvehungwaru. Haana kumbobvira ashanda muchikamu ichi uye haana kumbobvira ashanda mumakomiti ehungwaru eCongress. Mutungamiri Trump akamupa basa iri nekuti akabva muDemocratic Party paakakundwa naBiden musarudzo dzekutanga. Akatsigira Trump. Mukuwasha waMutungamiri Trump aivepo mumusangano asi kwete Mutungamiriri weNational Intelligence.

Saizvozvowo, chinzvimbo chepamusoro-soro chakaitwa naPeter Hegseth, Munyori weHondo, muUS Defence Forces, chaive cheMajor.

John Ratcliffe, Mutungamiriri weCentral Intelligence Agency (CIA), akatsanangura hurongwa hwaNetanyahu se "zvechipameso."

Trump paakabvunza Gen. Caine nezvemaonero ake pamusoro pehurongwa hwaNetanyahu, General Caine akakwanisa kutaura kuti: "Changamire, iyi ndiyo nzira yakajairika yekushanda kwevaIsrael. Vanotengesa zvakanyanya, uye zvirongwa zvavo hazvigarogadzirwa zvakanaka. Vanoziva kuti vanotida, uye ndosaka vachitengesa zvakanyanya." Gen. Caine vanoziva kuti aimbova mutyairi wendege weAir Force Trump asati amupa mubayiro nekumuita General.

Sekureva kwaSwan naHaberman, "General Caine akanga asina kudhakwa, achitsanangura njodzi dzaizoitika uye zvairehwa nehurongwa uhwu pakuderedza zvombo. Haana kupa pfungwa dzake; pfungwa yake yaive yekuti kana VaTrump vakarayira kuti zviitwe, mauto aizoita basa racho."

Munhu ega akaratidza kusava nechokwadi kukuru nezvebasa iri aive Mutevedzeri weMutungamiri Vance.

Trump akafadzwa nepfungwa yekuti aizokwanisa kuunza shanduko muhurumende uye kuva mukuru weIran ine democracy. Netanyahu akashandisawo chishuwo chaTrump chekuda kutsiva ne kumuyeuchidza kuti Iran yakaedza kumuurayaPakupera kwemusangano, Mutungamiriri wenyika akaudza musangano, "Ndinofunga tinofanira kuzviita."

Mutungamiriri wenyika Netanyahu akabva aziva kuti akanga abudirira kunyengedza mumwe Mutungamiriri weUnited States.

Zvakakosha kurangarira pano kuti VaBenjamin Netanyahu vaivewo vakambonyengerwa Mutungamiri W Bush kurwisa Iraq nekumupa chikafu ungwaru hwenhema uye kuratidza Iraq senjodzi iripo.

Mukutaura nyaya yekurwisa Iraq, Netanyahu akafanotaurawo kuti chiito chakadaro chaizoitika. kutanga kumukira muIraq uye zvaizoguma neIraq yedemocracy.

Nhengo yeparamende yeIsrael ine mukurumbira, Yossi Sarid, nhengo yekomiti yezvekunze nekudzivirira yakaongorora hunhu hwehungwaru hweIsrael paIraq, yakati masangano ehungwaru enyika yake aiziva kuti zvakataurwa zvekuti Saddam Hussein aikwanisa kupfura zvombo zvekuparadza vanhu vazhinji nekukurumidza zvaive zvisirizvo asi akavanza ruzivo kubva Washington.

Mumwe nhengo yekomiti, Ehud Yatom, vakati Israel yakaudza maAmerican kuti yaitenda kuti zvombo zviripo asi haina kuzviona.

Kunyangwe hazvo Netanyahu achitsigirwa zvakasimba nevanotonga mutemo vekuUS, mukati mevasori nenyanzvi dzezvemitemo yekunze, chero chaanotaura haavimbike zvachose.

Mhedzisiro yehondo yaTrump isati yatanga

Kusarudzwa kweUS neIsrael kurwisa Iran kwakasiyana, kanenge, muzvinhu zvina.

Kutanga, madzimambo ese matanhatu eGulf (Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, neKuwait) akakumbira US kuti iite izvi. kusaenda kuhondo neIran asi kupa diplomacy nguva yakawanda iyo yaive zvinobereka mhedzisiro. Kufambira mberi kwezvematongerwo enyika kwainonoka, sezvinoitika mukukurukurirana kwakaoma. Kunyange zvakadaro, iyi yaive nguva isingawanzoitiki apo nhengo dzese dzeGCC dzaiva nemaonero akafanana: vaiziva kuti Iran ingave njodzi huru kana kuti kunyange yehupenyu kwavari asi Iran yaizogara iripo mhiri kweGulf. Vese vaiziva kuti vaizonangwa neIran. Saizvozvowo, madzimambo ese eGulf nePentagon vaiziva kuti Iran ingasarudza kuvhara Strait of Hormuz pane imwe nguva.

Chechipiri, US kana Israel havana kuudza nhengo dzeNATO nezvesarudzo yavo yekuenda kuhondo kunyangwe vaiziva kuti zvaizova nemigumisiro yakaipa kuEurope. Hupfumi hwekupedzisira hwaive hwatove nedambudziko rekushaya simba kwehupfumi, uye vese vaiziva kuti nyika dzeEurope dzaivimba zvakanyanya neMiddle East kuti dziwane zvinodiwa nemafuta negesi. Netanyahu angangodaro aisada kuti Trump audze nhengo dzeNATO nekuti aiziva kuti vaizozvipikisa. Uyezve, zvaisazova zvakaoma kuti Netanyahu anyengetedze Trump kuti asaudze vatsigiri veUS vekuEurope nekuti kakawanda, Trump akaratidza kusavada zvachose, uye aifunga kuti mauto eUS aikwanisa kuita basa iri pasina rubatsiro rwenyika dzeNATO dzaaigara achizvidza achiti. Matiger epepa.

Muhurukuro neBritish's The Daily Telegraph, mutungamiri weUS akati "Handina kumbobvira ndanyengerwa neNATO. Ndaigara ndichiziva kuti ingwe yepepa, uye Putin anozivawo izvozvo, nenzira." Kunyangwe panguva yekutanga, kakawanda, akatyisidzira kubuda muNATO.

Chetatu, Trump akataura kakawanda katyamadza pamusoro pechisarudzo cheIran chekutsiva madzimambo eGulf, kusanganisira nekutarisa nzvimbo dzevanhuwo zvavo. Munhu wese, kunyanya Pentagon uye Nyika dzeGulf, dzaitarisira zvikuru mhinduro yakadaroIchi ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zvikuru zvavaipikisa hondo yeUS neIsrael neIran. Pasinei nezvinotaurwa naPresident Trump pachena, akaudzwa zvakajeka nemasangano ehungwaru kuti Iran inogona kuvhara Strait of Hormuz uye kuti nzvimbo dzeUS dziri muumambo hweGulf dzicharwiswa.

Chechina, Mutungamiri Trump haana kumbofunga nezve (a) kuti zviito zvake zvakaitirwa Israeri, zvaizokanganisa sei nyika yese maererano nekukwira kwemitengo, kushomeka kwemafuta negesi zvinodiwa kuti mafekitori ashande uye kubika mudzimba, kugadzirwa kwechikafu nekuda kwekushaikwa kwefetereza, uye zvinhu zvese zvakagadzirwa nepurasitiki kana kushandisa purasitiki pakurongedza; uye (b) kuti zviito zvake zvichakanganisa sei kuvimbika kweUS senyika ine simba guru pasi rose.

ZVINHU ZVISINA CHOKWADI

Mutungamiri wenyika Trump akataura kakawanda kuti akarwisa Iran nekuti hurongwa hwayo hwenyukireya nezvombo zvaityisidzira kuchengetedzeka kweUS.

Muhurukuro yake yeState of the Union (24 Kukadzi 2026), achitsigira kurwisa Iran, Trump akati Iran iri kuvaka hunyanzvi hwepamusoro uye iri kushanda pazvombo zvinokandwa kure zvinogona "inosvika muUnited States of America munguva pfupi iri kutevera".

Nyaya iyi inotyisa yakagadzirwa nemaune kuti pave ne "njodzi iri pedyo" kumaguta eAmerica. Asi zvakataurwa izvi hazvipori kunyangwe zvikaongororwa zvishoma.

Senator Tom Cotton, uyo anova sachigaro weSenate Intelligence Committee, (uye ari mumwe wevatsigiri veparamende vakakurumbira uye vakavimbika vaMutungamiri Trump neboka reMAGA) panguva yekunzwa kweAnnual Worldwide Threatments musi wa18 Kurume 2026, akaburitsa mushumo weanodaidzwa kuti inyanzvi yezvekuchengetedza yakazvimirira. Yakati Iran ichakwanisa kugadzira Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) inokwanisa kurova maguta eAmerica mukati memwedzi mitanhatu. Vese vari vaviri Mutungamiriri weCIA John Ratcliffe naMutungamiriri weNational Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard vakaramba kutsigira ongororo iyoyo.

Havana kuona shanduko musimba reIran rekupfura zvombo zvehondo isati yatanga. Izvi ndizvo zvakaitwa neThe New York Times vakapfupisa humbowo hwavo:

"Vakuru vaviri vepamusoro vehusori vakapikisa zvakananga chimwe chezvikonzero zvehurumende yaTrump zvekuenda kuhondo neIran, vachidzokorora neChitatu mhedziso yenharaunda yehusori yekuti Iran yakanga yava nemakore akawanda isati yagadzira zvombo zvinokwanisa kurova United States."

Sangano reArms Control Association, sangano renyika risingatsigire bato riri muWashington, riri mutsananguro pfupi yaKurume 3, 2026 akati:

"Hapana humbowo hunoratidza kuti Iran yakanga yava kuda kugadzira chombo chekurwisa mabhomba chinokwanisa kunanga United States. Mushure mekutaurirana kwechibvumirano chenyukireya cha2015, Iran yakazivisa muganho wemakiromita zviuru zviviri ekushandisa zvombo zvayo zvekurwisa mabhomba. Zvinoita sekuti Tehran ichiri kutevedzera muganho iwoyo."

VaJoe Kent, Mutungamiriri weNational Counterterrorism Center uye akagadzwa naTrump, vakasiya basa musi wa17 Kurume 2026, vachiti vaishora hondo yeIran uye zvavaifunga kuti zvaive simba reIsrael pamusoro pemitemo yehurumende yaTrump. Mune imwe post yake pasocial media, Joe Kent akanyora, “Handigoni kutsigira nehana yakanaka hondo iri kuenderera mberi muIran”. Akaenderera mberi achiti: “Iran haina kuisa njodzi huru kurudzi rwedu, uye zviri pachena kuti takatanga hondo iyi nekuda kwekumanikidzwa neIsrael nebato rayo reAmerica rine simba.”

Saizvozvowo, kutaura kweHurumende yaTrump kuti Iran yasara nevhiki kuti igadzire bhomba renyukireya hakubvumirwi nekuongorora.

Amai Andrea Stricker, vanozivikanwa nehunyanzvi hwavo hwepamusoro mukukura kweWMD uye mutevedzeri wemukuru weNonproliferation Program kuFoundation for Defense of Democracies (Washington DC-based think tank), vakanyora musi wa6 Chivabvu 2026 kuti fungidziro yekuti Iran ingave nebhomba reatomu yakavakirwa pafungidziro dzisingafungidzike. Izvi zvinofungidzira kuti kuvaka bhomba nekukurumidza, pasina kuyedzwa kwakasimba kana sisitimu yekuputitsa yakaoma.

Stricker anoenderera mberi achiti:

"Kunyangwe Iran ichiri kukwanisa kuwana mamwe maHEU (uranium yakapfuma kwazvo) mumasheya, Mutungamiri Donald Trump vakataura kakawanda kuti United States neIsrael dzinochengetedza nguva dzese nzvimbo dzeNatanz, Fordow, neEsfahan tunnel dzakaparadzwa kana kukuvara uye dzicharova chero ani zvake ari kuedza kuchera kana kupinda. Tehran ichasangana nematambudziko makuru ekuwedzera HEU kuWGU (uranium yemhando yezvombo), sezvo nzvimbo dzayo ina dzekuvandudza zvinhu dzakaparadzwa, dzakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya, kana kuti dzakaita sedzisingawanikwe…Israel yakabvisa nzira zhinji dzeIran dzekupa zvinhu zvinoshandisa centrifuge ndokuparadza nzvimbo yekuchera uranium yeArdakan, ukuwo United States neIsrael dzakanangana nekugona kweEsfahan kushandura zvombo. Jerusarema rakananganawo nenzira yeIran yekuunganidza zvombo zvenyukireya neplutonium panguva yehondo dzese dziri mbiri.”

Achitaura nezvenzvimbo mbiri dzisina mazita, The Times of Israel yakashuma kuti hapana shanduko dzakaitika, "kuongororo isina kunyorwa yeUS Defence Intelligence Agency ya2025 iyo Iran inogona kutora kusvika 2035 kugadzira "chombo chehondo chinoshanda pakati pemakondinendi" (ICBM) kubva kumotokari dzayo dziripo dzekuisa satellite muchadenga (SLV).

"Mumwe munhu akati kunyangwe China kana North Korea, iyo inoshanda pamwe chete neIran, ikapa rubatsiro rwetekinoroji, Iran ingangotora makore masere pakutanga kugadzira" chimwe chinhu chiri padanho reICBM uye chinoshanda."

Vanyori venhau veNew York Times pavakataura nevakuru vehurumende yeAmerica neEurope, mapoka epasi rose ekuongorora zvombo uye vakatarisa mishumo yakasiyana-siyana kubva kumasangano ehungwaru eAmerica, vakaona mufananidzo wakasiyana zvikuru wekukurumidzira kwekutyisidzira kweIran pane uyo wakanyorwa neWhite House. Vakagumisa kuti zvese zvitatu zvataurwa pamusoro apa ndezvimwe nhema kana kuti hadzitsigirwi neuchapupu huripo.

Paakabvunzwa nemutori wenhau musi wa25 Kukadzi 2026, Munyori weHurumende, Marco Rubio vakabvuma kuti pakanga pasina humbowo hwekuti maIran ari kuwedzera mafuta enyukireya pari zvino.

Mumashoko akanyorwa nemukuru wayo mukuru Rafael Grossi, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) yakati parizvino "haina chiratidzo" chekuti chero nzvimbo dzenyukireya dzeIran dzakakuvadzwa kana kurohwa neIsrael kana US. Izvi zvinosanganisira Bushehr nuclear power plant, reactor yekutsvagisa muTehran, nedzimwe nzvimbo dzekushandisa mafuta enyukireya.

Trump akatanga hondo isiri pamutemo pamhosva ina dzese: (a) haana mvumo yeUN yekurwisa Iran; (b) Haana kukumbira mvumo yeCongress yake; (c) Iran yakanga isiri kutyisidzira US chero nenzira ipi zvayo; uye (d) chirongwa chenyukireya cheIran chakanga chisiri kutyisidzira nekuti hapana kana imwe yenzvimbo yeIran yakabatana nechirongwa chayo chenyukireya yakarwiswa nguva pfupi mushure mekunge hondo yataura.

Chinangwa chaicho chehondo yaTrump kwaive kushandura hutongi uye kuisa hurumende yakapfava yaizova neushamwari, kana kuti yaizoteerera, Israeri.

Trump akashamisika zvechokwadi kuti kunyangwe mushure mekunge US neIsrael vauraya vatungamiriri vakawanda vezvitendero nevezvematongerwo enyika (nyanzvi dzemutemo dzinoona izvi se zviito zvisiri pamutemo kana mhosva dzehondo), uye vashandi vepamusoro vekudzivirira, kuti hazvina kukonzera kumukira kwemumba pakarepo kana kuparara kweIslamic Republic.

fungidziro dzisina kururama

Kune vanhu vana vakaurayiwa muhondo yeUS-Israel neIran: (a) Nyika dzese nhanhatu dzeGulf dzakanangwa neIran, kunyanya UAE. Qatar yakatambura zvakanyanya mune zvehupfumi ichiteverwa neBahrain neKuwait (b) kuvimbika kweUS sevimbiso yekuchengetedza madzimambo eGulf; (c) kuvimbika kweUS senyika ine simba guru pasi rose; uye (d) simba reWashington rakapfava.

Kutya kuti Mutungamiriri weSouth Vietnam Nguyễn Văn Thiệu angangosangana nedambudziko rakafanana naNgô Đình Diệm, achitaura nemutori wenhau, William Buckley, parunhare, Henry Kissinger vakati, “Zvingave nengozi kuva muvengi weAmerica, asi kuva shamwari yeAmerica kunouraya.”

Mashoko aKissinger achava echokwadi kuvatongi nevagari venyika dzose nhanhatu dzeGulf.

Pakati pavo, Gulf States inogamuchira nzvimbo nezvivakwa zvemauto emumvura nemauto eUS zvinopfuura gumi nematatu. Pamwe Kupfuura 20, sekureva kwemimwe mishumo. Panzvimbo pekushanda senzira dzekudzivirira kurwiswa nemuvengi, nzvimbo idzi dzakava nzvimbo huru dzekurwisa zvombo zveIran nemadrone, uye chimwe nechimwe chakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya.

Nyika dzeGulf dzakabvumirana kuti dzisatange hondo iyi. Hondo payakatanga, nyika dzeGulf, kunyanya Saudi Arabia uye UAE aida kuti US iite zvese kuderedza kutyisidzira, kureva, kusvibisa zvachose zvombo zveIran zve ballistic nezvivakwa zvenyukireya uye kubvisa muunganidzwa we uranium yakapfuma zvikuru. Vakakundikana pamhosva dzose dziri mbiri.

Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, madzimambo eGulf States ese akawana kuti US yaive mubatsiri wekuchengetedza asina kuvimbika/mupi wevimbiso.

Nyika dzese dzeGulf dzinogara dzichishandisa mazana emamiriyoni emadhora dzichitenga michina yekudzivirira inodhura (jet fighters, reconnaissance systems, maroketi anopfura zvombo, maroketi anopindira zvombo, maroketi nemabhomba, zvombo zvemarudzi ese, nezvimwewo) netariro yekuti US ichavatsigira munguva yavanoda. Vakaisawo matrillion emadhora akawanda muhupfumi hweUS.

Nekutevera nzira iyi, maArab Emir nemaSheikh vakafunga kuti vakanga vatenga dziviriro isina musoro. Zvisinei, nzira iyi yedziviriro yakanga isina kunaka munzira mbiri huru:

1. Iran neUS dzave dzichipesana kwemakore anopfuura 47, kubvira apo Shah weIran akatiza nyika muna Chikumi, 1979; uye
2. Kana US ikasarudza pakati peIsrael nevatsigiri vayo vekuGulf, yaizogara ichitarisira zvido zveIsrael kutanga.

Zvikanganiso zviviri izvi mukuchengetedza kweGulf States zvave zvichionekwa kweanoda kusvika makumi mashanu emakore kana kubvira pavakapinda muzvirongwa izvi zvekudzivirira. Regai nditsanangure nezvepfungwa iyi.

US yagara ichikoshesa zvinhu zvinodiwa neIsrael

Munguva yehondo yanhasi neIran, United States yakaisa pamberi zvakanyanya kupa nekuisa zvombo zvinodzivirira zvombo kudzivirira Israeri pamusoro pevabatsiri vayo veGulf Arab.

Sekureva kweThe Washington Post, US inonzi ine vakapfura mamwe ma interceptor akawanda kuti vadzivirire Israel kupfuura zvakaitwa neIsrael kuti izvidzivirire. UAE neSaudi Arabia zvaingoratidza kusafara chete. Nyika dzeGulf dzakaudzwa kuti paive nekushomeka kwezvombo zvinodzivirira. Saka, dzakazvidzivirira. akanzwa kutengeswa uye aifanira kutsvaga rubatsiro kunyika dzakadai se Ositireriya, Itari, Ukraine, Etc.

Kuda kweUS Israel kupfuura chero imwe nyika muMiddle East hakusi chinhu chaTrump. US ingadai yakaita zvakafanana nepanguva yaRichard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, kana Joe Biden. Pamwe, Vatungamiriri Carter naObama, vese vachipesana netsika nenzira yavo, vangadai vakaratidza kusawirirana.

Pasinei nekukumbirwa kwenyika dzese dzechiArabhu muMiddle East, zvisinei nekuti nyika iyoyo yakabatana zvakadii neUS, nyika iyi yakaramba kana kutaura zvisina musoro, isina zvayakataura uye isina kumboteverwa nematanho ekuranga kana zvasvika pakutyora mitemo yenyika dzepasi rose kana kuputsa mitemo yepasi rose. United States yakabatana neIsrael mune chero hurongwa hwayo hwekuti Israel iite kune maPalestine.

Mushure meHondo yeMazuva Matanhatu muna 1967, pasi pe Mutungamiriri weNyika Levi Eshkol, Israel yakatanga kuvaka misha yevaJudha zvisiri pamutemo panyika yePalestine, kakawanda nemari yaigamuchirwa serubatsiro rweUS. Washington yakabvuma kuti yaive misha isiri pamutemo, asi hapana Hurumende yeUS yakambotora chero chiito. US haina kumbobvira yarambidza chero wezvematongerwo enyika weIsrael kupinda muUS kuratidza kusafara kwayo; haina kumbobvira yaisa zvirango zvehupfumi kana kumisa kuendeswa kwezvombo kuIsrael, kana kuderedza bhajeti rayo rerubatsiro, kana kurambidza chero mugari weUS nekuda kwekupa rubatsiro kuIsrael kuvaka misha iyi isiri pamutemo.

Apo mauto eIsrael aiita mhosva dzehondo uye achiuraya vanhu vakawanda muGaza Strip, sezvakanyorwa nevakawanda Nyanzvi dzechiJudha dzeHolocaust, uye vachipa rubatsiro rwekurapa nekuendesa chikafu nezvombo, Hurumende yaBiden naTrump yakaramba ichipa zvombo zvese zvaikumbirwa neIsrael (kuti muwane hurukuro yakadzama ndapota onai chinyorwa changu chechitatu munhevedzano iyi chinotaura nezvekuti US yakaparadza sei pamutemo wayo senyika ine simba repasi rose nezviitiko zvayo zvakaipa zveIran).

Muna May 2019, ngarava ina (2 dzeSaudi ne2 dzeUAE) pedyo nechiteshi cheFujairah (UAE) dzakaparadzwa pasi rose. Humbowo hwese hwakaratidza kuti Iran ndiyo yakapara mhosva. Panzvimbo yekutora danho rehondo, mhinduro yeUS yakangogumira pakutsoropodza zvisina musoro. Kushaikwa kwemhinduro dzemauto. kutya zvikuru nyika mbiri.

Saizvozvo, mu September 2019, Vapanduki veHouthi (vakabatana neIran) vakarwisa nzvimbo dzekugadzirisa mafuta dzeAbqaiq neKhurais muSaudi Arabia. Izvi zvakakanganisa huwandu hwemafuta anoburitswa muSaudi Arabia hunopfuura hafu. Kurwiswa uku kwakabva kuIran. Hurumende yaTrump (Mark I) haina kutora matanho.

Mhinduro dzeUS kuzviitiko zviviri zviri pamusoro apa dzaive mu musiyano mukuru nehurongwa hwemakore akawanda hwechisimba nezvechiito chehondo chakananga chavakatora vachirwisa Houthls pavakaedza kukanganisa kutengeserana kwegungwa kuburikidza neBab-el-Mandeb neGungwa Dzvuku, vachivavarira kukuvadza Israeri.

Mutungamiri George W. Bush akapa chinzvimbo cheMajor Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) kuBahrain neKuwait muna 2002 na2004, zvichiteerana. Biden akawedzera chinzvimbo chimwe chete kuQatar muna 2022. Asi zvese izvi DCAs nezvibvumirano zvekuchengetedza hazvina kushanda panguva dzavaida. Zvido zveIsrael zvakakunda chete.

B Zvivakwa Zvitsva zveKuchengetedza

Saudi Arabia neUAE vane basa guru mumusika wesimba repasi rose uye munyika yemari yepasi rose kuburikidza nemari yavo yehupfumi. Asi zviitiko izvi zvakaratidza kuti madzimambo eGulf achiri pasi pesimba reUS nekuda kwekuchengetedzwa kwavo kubva kune anorwisa ekunze. Muenzaniso wekuti "mafuta ekuchengetedza" hausisina basa. Uku kusasimba kwavanofanira kugadzirisa.

Asi hazvirevi kuti vanofanira kusiya US protective amburera. Vacharamba vachida US semubatsiri wavo wekuchengetedza chero bedzi dunhu iri risina kugadzikana nekuti US chete ndiyo inokwanisa kuita izvi. kugona kukuru zvinodiwa kuti pave nekuchengetedzwa kwezvombo zvinokandwa pamwe chete, kurongeka kwezvikepe mudunhu reGulf zvinosimbiswa nekudzivirira kwakajairika.

Munguva yehondo iyi, China yakaratidza kuti haina chido chekupinda muchiuto munharaunda iyi ichitya kukanganisa hukama hwayo hwekutengeserana. Nekuda kwehondo yeUkraine neRussia, nhengo dzeNATO dzichaona kuti kugona kweRussia kudzivirira kunoramba kuripo kwenguva refu.

UAE neSaudi Arabia ndidzo chete nhengo mbiri dzeGCC dzine mukana wekuzvidzivirira kana kubatsira dzimwe nyika ina dzeGulf. Kuti vagadzire hurongwa hwekuchengetedza husingatsamiri paUS chete, vanofanirwa kushanda pamwe chete.

Pakarepo, hondo iyi yakarasikirwa nemadhora eGulf States mabhiriyoni emadhora mumari inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye kukuvara kwenzvimbo dzavo dzekugadzira mafuta negasi, nhandare dzendege, mahotera, nzvimbo dzedata, nezvimwewo pamwe nemari yekutsigira vafambi vakaremara.

Mari dzinoshandiswa kwenguva refu dzakatonyanya kuipa: Gulf States dzichaona kubhururuka kwemari. Kukura kwehupfumi hwavo kuchaderera munguva pfupi iri kutevera sezvo zvichavaomera kukwezva vanodyara mari vatsva vekunze. 17% yekugadzirwa kwegasi muQatar Simba renyika rakaparadzwa nekurwiswa neIran. Nyika dzese dzeGulf dzichada mari yekugadzirisa hupfumi hwadzo uye zvivakwa zvakakuvadzwa. Dzingaonawo kuti hunyanzvi hwenyika hunodiwa kumaindasitiri akakosha. Izvi zvichanyanya kuenderana nekuti hukama pakati peIran neUS huchabudirira sei mune ramangwana.

Nyika dzese dzeGulf dzichasangana nekumanikidzwa kwebhajeti nekuda kwezvikonzero zvitatu: (a) Kukura kwehupfumi kunononoka; (b) kuvharwa kweStrait of Hormuz panguva yehondo kuchakurumidzisa maitiro epasi rose ekuisa simba rinogona kushandiswazve uye masisitimu ekuchengetera mabhatiri; uye (c) pavanenge vachibhadhara mari yavo, vachafanira kuwedzera mari yekudzivirira.

Kwava kutanga kutaura kuti rudzii rwemagadzirirwo ekuchengetedza achabuda mushure mehondo iyi. Chiripo ndechekuti mamiriro ezvinhu aripo haazorarami. Hukama huri kubuda hwehupfumi nehwekutengeserana huchaitawo basa rakakosha mukuumba magadzirirwo aya.

Zvingangoita kuti hurongwa hutsva hwekuchengetedza hungave hwakafanana nehuri kuchinja muEurope, uko US iri kuda kuti nhengo dzeNATO dzizvigadzirire zvakanyanya uye nekukurumidza sezvinobvira. Ndinotsanangura pazasi kuti hurongwa hwekuchengetedza mune ramangwana hungave hwakaita sei, kana madzimambo eGulf akasarudza kukunda gakava ravo repakati penyika.

Kusava nehanya nekutya kweGulf States muUS

Kukundikana kukuru uku, sezvakatsanangurwa pamusoro apa, kwakaparadza zvikuru Gulf States kuvimba nekuchengetedzeka kweAmerica vimbiso. Vatsigiri nevavengi veUS vari kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzepasi vangadai vakazvionawo.

Hondo yeIsrael neUnited States neIran yakavaunza pamwe chete nematambudziko akawanda:

Zvakaratidza maitiro avo:

• Kusakwanisa kwavo zvachose mune zvematongerwo enyika: havana kubvunzwa hondo isati yatanga kana kuti mushure mezvo panguva yekukurukurirana kwekumisa hondo.

• Kana paiva nekusava nechokwadi kare, Hondo yeUS-Israel neIran inofanira kunge yakamisa zvachose izvozvo.

• US ishamwari yekuchengetedza isingavimbike uye isingafungidzike; uye
• ichaisa pamberi zvido zveIsrael pane zvido zvavo.

• Nzvimbo dzeUS dziri muvhu ravo kana mumvura dzavo dzakavaita kuti vave chinangwa chikuru kune chero ani zvake ari kurwisana neUS.
• Zvakaparadza pfungwa yekuti vaipa mamiriro ezvinhu akagadzikana mune zvematongerwo enyika, nzvimbo yavo huru yekushambadzira.
• Zvave pachena kuti nzira yakasarudzwa yekusiyanisa hupfumi hwavo (kureva, kukwezva nzvimbo dzedata, makambani ehungwaru hwekugadzira, kuzvishambadza senzvimbo yebhangi remunharaunda uye nzvimbo yezvemari, kukwezva vashanyi nekuita mitambo yegrand prix, nhabvu negorofu, kuvaka matavi eDisney neGuggenheim Museum, nezvimwewo) yakafanana nekugara mumuzinda wegirazi, uye pamusoro pezvose.
• Zvakavaratidza mutengo wekusava vavakidzani vakanaka.

SARUDZO DZITATU

Nyika dzeGulf dzine sarudzo nhatu:

• Chengetedza mamiriro ezvinhu aripo pamberi pehondo uye bvuma kuti zvavanoda zvichagara zvichitevedzera zvinodiwa neIsrael kuUS;

• Vanogadzirisa hukama hwavo neIsrael vachiziva zvizere kuti (a) muHondo yeIran yeMiddle East, Chibvumirano chaAbraham (kureva, kugadzirisa hukama neIsrael uye kusateerera maitiro anoita Israeri muPalestine uye kuvaPalestine) chave chisisiri chenguva; (b) Israeri inoda kutonga vavengi vayo vanoonekwa sevavengi muMiddle East; uye (c) isimba redunhu rinoda rusununguko rinovavarira simbisa "Greater Israel" kana kuti "Eretz Yisrael HaShlemah". Nemamwe mashoko, gamuchirai simba reUS-Israel pamwe chete uye dziviriro yemauto.

• Vachiziva kuti sarudzo mbiri dziri pamusoro dzichavapinza muhondo yenguva dzose neIran (iyo inodawo basa remutungamiri wedunhu) uye dzichavaita kuti vave chinangwa chekushorwa kwevaMuslim vanogara kune dzimwe nzvimbo pasi rose (nekuti vangadai vakapandukira pfungwa yeUmmat al-Islām), vanoedza kutevera maitiro achavabvumira kudzora ramangwana ravo uye kugona kuronga zviitiko munharaunda yavo.

Sarudzo mbiri dzekutanga dzinotsanangura dzoga. Regai nditsanangure muchidimbu zvavanofanira kuita pakati pavo kuti vagadzirise sarudzo yechitatu.

Hapana mhinduro yemauto kuIran

Kunze kwekunge hurumende yeIslam yaparara nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kuri kusangana nako (semuenzaniso, kuda kumutsiridza hupfumi, kuvakazve zvivakwa zvevanhu zvakaparadzwa (semuenzaniso, zvipatara, mayunivhesiti, mabhiriji, nezvimwewo), kuvakazve zvivakwa zvavo zvezvombo uye kuvapa nzvimbo dzakasimba, kubhadhara mari kubva kuvamiriri vavo, nezvimwewo, hapana mhinduro yehondo kuIran.

Kunyange hazvo nyanzvi dzeMiddle East dzichibvumirana kuti Iran mushure mehondo inyika ine ushingi. Asi, ndinofunga kuti kana tichitarisa zvinodiwa izvi zvinopesana nehurumende yeIslam, pane mukana wekuti inogona kuparara mumakore matatu kusvika mashanu anotevera. Iran isina kugadzikana kana isingatongwe haisi yekubatsira chero humambo hweGulf.

Chinhu chakakosha kurangarira ndechekuti zvisinei nekuti zvombo zveIran zvinokandwa nezvombo zvenyukireya zvakaderera zvakadii, zvisinei nekuti vangani vevasayendisiti vayo vepamusoro kana vatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika vakaurayiwa, hurumende yeIslam kana mutsivi wayo acharamba aine ruzivo rwese rwesainzi rwakawanikwa neIran mumakore apfuura.

Uyezve, nhoroondo inotiudza kuti hazviwanzoitika kuti pfungwa dzezvematongerwo enyika kana dzechitendero dziparadzwe nenzira dzehondo kana nemaitiro ekumanikidza. Umambo hweRoma hahuna kukwanisa kubvisa chiKristu nekusunga nekutambudza vateveri vahwo. Hondo Yenyika II yakapera makore anoda kusvika makumi masere apfuura, asi pfungwa dzeNazi dzichiripo. MaIndia paakasarudza kutsvaga kuzvitonga, Umambo hweBritain hahuna kungokwanisa kuramba chete, asi hwakaitawo kuti Umambo hwese huparare. Soviet Union neUS zvakafanira kubuda muAfghanistan mumamiriro ezvinhu anonyadzisa. Matunhu maviri ePakistan yaimbovepo pakutanga (East neWest Pakistan) haana kukwanisa kugadzirisa kusiyana kwavo kwetsika nezvematongerwo enyika, uye kurambana kwacho kwaive nechisimba uye kwakadeura ropa. Rondedzero yacho yakareba kwazvo.

KUFANIRA KUGADZIRISA MUSIYANO WE INTERNECINE

Kuti vabudirire mukumanikidza/kukurudzira/kukurudzira Iran kuti idzore maitiro ayo kwavari uye kuti isaite chero mabasa ekupandukira hurumende dzavo kana kukonzera matambudziko mukati mavo, nyika dzose nhanhatu dzeGulf dzinofanira kutaura neIran nezwi rakabatana, kunyanya Saudi Arabia neUAE.

Chinangwa cheAlUla Declaration chaNdira 2021, chakasainwa ne Gulf Kubatana Kanzuru (GCC) nhengo dzacho, dzaizogumisa kuvharirwa kwavo kwehupfumi kuQatar kusina kushanda: iyo yekupedzisira yakakwanisa kuigadzirisa nekutenga miriwo mitsva, zvigadzirwa zvemukaka nezvekudya, huku nezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda kubva kuIran neTürkiye asiwo kubva kune dzimwe nyika. Kutaura zvazviri, Qatar yakashandisa dambudziko iri kuwedzera kuchengetedzeka kwayo kwechikafu ne kugadzira indasitiri yayo yemukaka Saka, maSaudi akarasikirwa nemusika wekutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika zvachose.

Iyo sVasina magwaro vakavimbisawo kuchengetedza kugadzikana kwenharaunda, kurwisa hugandanga, uye kuremekedza kuzvitonga kwenyika.

The Chirevo cheAlUla inopa nzira yekugadzirisa nyaya dzavo dzenzvimbo kuburikidza nekutaurirana kuitira kuti vagone kushanda pamwe chete kuti pave nehurongwa hwakabatana hwekuchengetedza.

Zvisinei, kutaura nezwi rakabatana hazvirevi kuti vanobvumirana panyaya imwe neimwe. Semuenzaniso, pachinzvimbo chekuzviona sezviito zvekusateerera mitemo, vanofanira kutarisa kutevedzera kweOman mutemo wekunze usina divi rawo kana mutemo weQatar wekutaura nevatambi vese venyika nevasiri venyika vari munharaunda iyi sesimba ravo. Kusatevedzera mitemo uku kunovapa nzvimbo dzakawanda dzekuwana ruzivo (kana kushanduka-shanduka kwezvematongerwo enyika) kuti vatevere zvinangwa zvavo zvemutemo wekunze uye nokudaro kuderedza kuvimba neUS.

Asi vanofanira kugadzirisa mutsauko unogona kubvumira Iran kuti igadzire muganhu pakati penhengo mbiri kana kupfuura dzeGCC. Semuenzaniso, kusawirirana kweUAE neSaudi Arabia pamusoro peYemen uye uko maSaudi anotsigira bato rinopikiswa neUAE. Zvakafanana pamusoro peSudan.

Zvakakosha kurangarira kuti kusarerekera kweOman uye Qatar kuchengetedza nzira dzayo dzezvematongerwo enyika neIran dzakavhurika ndizvo zvakaita kuti US ikwanise kupedza hondo iyi nemhinduro inochengetedza chiso nekuti Trump akaona kuti kana akatevera mhinduro yemauto yekuvhura Strait of Hormuz, US Navy yaigona kurasikirwa. chimwe kana kupfuura zvinoparadza uye mazana emasoja ayo epamusoro-soro mahombekombe egungwa eIran ane makomo pasina mhedzisiro inonzwisisika. Pakistan yakatora danho iri ndokupa nzvimbo yacho uye yakashanda semumiriri weSaudi Arabia neChina.

Mauto ekudzivirira kurwisa kwekunze

Kuti vaderedze kuvimba kwavo neUS, nyika dzeGulf, dzinenge nhatu dzadzo, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, neQatar, dzinofanira kuronga mauto adzo ekudzivirira kuti dzirwise kutyisidzira kwekunze. Pari zvino, dzakagadzirirwa kuchengetedza hurumende, kureva kuti, kudzivirira chero kuedza kupidigura hurumende.

Mauto eSaudi Arabian Armed Forces (ari pasi peMinistry of Defense) akasiyana neSaudi Arabian National Guard (SANG). Mauto ekupedzisira aya anowanikwa chete kubva kumadzinza eBedouin ayo agara akavimbika kuHouse of Saudi Arabia. Mauto maviri aya akavakwa semauto akafanana neSudan Armed Forces neRapid Support Forces (ikozvino ari muhondo yevagari vemo yekutonga Sudan).

Mushure mekuratidzira kweArab Spring muna 2011, Bahrain yakaisa nzira dzayo dzekudzivirira kupidigurwa kwehurumende.

Pano zvakare UAE ndiyo yave yekutanga kubva pachikwata ichi. Mumakore ekuma1990 nekuma2000, UAE yakabatanidza mauto akasiyana eEmirate kuita mauto ane simba guru uye akabatana ehurumende. Yakaisa mutemo wekuti varume vese veEmirate vanyoreswe muchiuto uye yakaisa mauto ayo muAfghanistan, Yemen neLibya kuti ivape ruzivo rwehondo.

ZVIDZIVIRIRO ZVEMHEPO ZVAKABATANIDZWA

Sezvatinoziva, panguva yehondo, Iran yakarwisa madzimambo ese matanhatu eGulf. Oman yakarova vashoma kwazvo: kasere, uye UAE yaive yakarova kanopfuura 2800. Vese vaifanira kuisa hurongwa hwavo hwekudzivirira mhepo panjodzi huru. Nezvedu 75% yezvakawanikwa muAbu Dhabi ma interceptor akanga apera.

Saka iyi inzvimbo imwe chete apo madzimambo ese matanhatu anofanira kukwanisa kushanda pamwe chete uye kutora matanho ekubatanidza zvivakwa zvavo zvekudzivirira mhepo kusvika padanho rekuti vanogona kubatsira mumwe weGCC kana vasingade kuva nehurongwa hwekuraira hwakabatana/hwakabatana.

Danho rinotevera rine musoro nderekuti varongedze kutenga zvinhu izvi uye pamwe vave nebhajeti rakafanana rezvinhu izvi. Saizvozvowo, kana vachifunga nezvekubatana kuti vagadzire michina yekudzivirira kugadzirwa, vanogona kudzivirira kudzokororwa kwenzvimbo dzekugadzira, semuenzaniso, kana UAE yakasarudza kugadzira mota dzehondo dzakakodzera mamiriro ekunze anopisa (mushure mekutenga mugove wayo muMilrem Robotics iri kuEstonia kana kuvaka madrone ayo mushure mekutora Flaris yePoland) saka Saudi Arabia inogona kufunga nezvekugadzira chimwe chinhu munzvimbo.

Saudi Arabia nePakistan dzine chibvumirano chekudzivirirana chakafanana neNATO. Munguva yehondo yeUS neIran, Pakistan yakatumirwa Mamwe masoja zviuru zvisere, chikwata chendege dzehondo, uye masisitimu ekudzivirira mhepo muSaudi Arabia.

UAE yakasaina chibvumirano neIndia nguva pfupi yadarika asi inopa rutsigiro rwezvinhu zvekushandisa neruzivo rwevanhu pamwe chete nekupa tekinoroji kana kugadzira pamwe chete michina yekudzivirira. UAE inoita kunge iine chido chikuru chekutenga kana kugadzira pamwe chete michina yeIndia. Masisitimu ezvombo zveAkash kubva pamusoro kuenda mudenga, Mabhomba eBrahMos ekufambisa nechikepe, uye ndege dzehondo dzeLCA Tejas.

KUSIMBISA KUBATANA

Saudi Arabia neUAE dziri kuedza kuwedzera nekukurumidza kugona kwadzo mapaipi emafuta epasi pevhu kuti dzisanyanya kuvimba neStrait of Hormuz.

Kambani yeAbu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) iri pasi pehurumende iri kuvaka chiteshi chitsva chikuru chemafuta. Mapaipi ekuMadokero-KumabvazuvaIzvi zvichaita kuti mamwe mabara emagetsi anokwana mamiriyoni 1.8 pazuva (bpd) atumirwe kunze kwenyika kuburikidza nechiteshi chengarava cheFujairah, chiri paGulf of Oman uye chinodarika Strait of Hormuz. Muna Chivabvu 2026, ADNOC yakasimbisa kuti chirongwa ichi chakanga chatopera ne50%.

ARAMCO yeSaudi Arabia iri kuedza kusimudzira, kuwedzera, uye kuwedzera kugona kweEast-West Pipeline yayo, iyo inoendesa mafuta eSaudi ku Chiteshi chechiteshi cheYanbu paGungwa Dzvuku

Mapaipi haabatsiri nhengo dzese dzeGCC. Anogona kuwedzera mafuta ekutengesera kunze kwenyika, asi haakwanise kutumira zvimwe zvinhu kunze kwenyika, semuenzaniso, fetereza, mapurasitiki, aruminiyamu, Mazuva, zvigadzirwa zvemukaka, huku, nezvimwewo. Saka vanofanira kupa pekutanga kuti vapedze chirongwa cheGCC Rail chagara chiripo kwenguva refu nekubatanidza mapurojekiti ezvitima aripo muOman, Saudi Arabia, neUAE nemamwe madzimambo eGulf uye kuwedzera network yacho.

Chirongwa cheMarshall cheIran nechibvumirano chekusarwisa

The ndima yechitanhatu yeMOU inoyeuchidza nezve Marshall Plan yakagadzirwa neUnited States kubatsira hupfumi hwakaparadzwa nehondo hwenyika gumi nematanhatu dzemuEurope (Britain, France neItaly ndidzo dzaive nhatu dzakabatsirwa zvikuru) kana zvirongwa zvakasiyana-siyana zvakashandiswa neUS kubhadhara mari Kuvakazve kweJapan Mushure meHondoNdima 6 inoti US ichaita "nevadyidzani vemunharaunda kugadzira hurongwa hwakasimba, hwakabvumiranwa nevese hune mari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhora ekuAmerica yekuvakazve nekusimudzira hupfumi" hweIran. Kune "vadyidzani vemunharaunda" verenga GCC States.

Zvipfuro zvinosvika 13000 zvakarwiswa nemauto eUS neIsrael zvaparadza Iran. Iran inoita sekunge yakatambura nekudengenyeka kwenyika kwakakura munyika yese. Ichada rubatsiro rwakawanda isati yakwanisa kumira netsoka dzayo, uye kwemakore mazhinji.

Izvi zvinopa madzimambo eGulf mukana wekuratidza hushamwari kuIran kuti isaine chibvumirano chakazara chekusarwisa nhengo dzese nhanhatu, icho chinotaura zvakajeka kuti Iran inoremekedza hutongi hweMatunhu ese matanhatu eGCC uye haizoiti chero chiitiko chakavanzika kana chakavanzika chichaita kuti pave nekusawirirana munharaunda. Nemamwe mashoko, kurudzira Iran kuti iite zvishoma nezvishoma maitiro ayo. Mukutsinhana, Gulf States inogona kupa rubatsiro (runofanira kutariswa zvakanyanya neUS) chete kumapurojekiti evagari vemo kuitira kuti isazoshandiswa kubhadhara chero mabasa eIRG kana chero emasangano ayo ehungwaru kana zvikoro zvechitendero zvine hukasha kana Madrasah. Kana Iran ikaita semuvakidzani ane hushamwari, Gulf States inogona kupa vagari vemuIran mukana wekushanda munzvimbo dzakasarudzwa (uko kusingadiwi mvumo yekuchengetedza), semuenzaniso, kugamuchira vaenzi, kutengesa, hutano, nezvimwewo.

Kune mishumo isina kusimbiswa yekuti MaSaudi ari kukurukura chibvumirano chekusarwisa neIran maererano nehurongwa hweHelsinki.

Vidya S. Sharma anopa mazano kune vatengi nezvenjodzi dzenyika uye mabhizinesi akabatana akavakirwa patekinoroji. Akapa zvinyorwa zvakawanda kumapepanhau ane mukurumbira akadai se: The Canberra Times, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age (Melbourne), The Australian Financial Review, The Economic Times (India), The Business Standard (India), EU Reporter (Brussels), East Asia Forum (Canberra), The Business Line (Chennai, India), The Hindustan Times (India), The Financial Express (India), The Daily Caller (US). Anogona kubatwa pa: [email inodzivirirwa].

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