Ko madzimambo eGulf achakunda gakava repakati penyika here nekuda kwekuchengetedzwa kwevanhu vose?

Hondo yeUS-Israel neIran iri kukonzera matambudziko mukubatana kwagara kuripo muMiddle East. Hazvina mhosva kuti chii chichaitika mukukurukurirana pakati peUS neIran mumavhiki matanhatu anotevera, hondo iyi yatove kukonzera kuumbwa kwekubatana kutsva, kupwanyika kwekubatana kwekare kana kusimbiswazve nekukurudzira nhengo itsva, anonyora Vidya S. Sharma, Ph. D.

Kuti tinzwisise zvingaitika mune ramangwana, tinofanira kuziva kuti tasvika sei pano kuitira kuti tigone kufunga kuti chii chingave chimiro chikuru chehurongwa hutsva hwekuchengetedza hweMiddle East tichifunga nezvemakakatanwa epakati penyika ari kutambudza Gulf Cooperation Council kana nhengo dzeGCC (kureva, Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates kana UAE, Qatar, Bahrain neKuwait).

Mbeu dzehondo iyi dzakadyarwa muna 2003

Hondo iyi haina kungoerekana yaitika. Mbeu dzayo dzakadyarwa nekubviswa kwaSaddam Hussein uye kuti Hondo yeIraq Mark II (Kurume 2003 - Zvita 2011), yakatangwa neHurumende yaGeorge W Bush ichitsvaga zvombo zvekuparadza vanhu vakawanda zvisiripo, yakakanganisa Iraq.

Mu2003 yese Amin Tarzi, Ali Ansari nevamwe vazhinji vanoongorora makambani ekufunga, uye masangano ehungwaru eUS yakanyevera Hurumende yaGeorge W Bush kuti kurwisa Iraq kungangokonzera kupesana kwemapoka ezvitendero, kupa al-Qaeda mikana mitsva muIraq neAfghanistan, uye kupa mukana usina kumboitika kuIran wekuti kusimbisa simba rayo renharaunda uye "zvichida zvingaguma nekuwedzera kweIslam yezvematongerwo enyika uye kuwedzera mari yemapoka emagandanga" munyika yeMuslim. Musi wa15 Nyamavhuvhu, 2002, mushakabvu Lt. Gen. (Rtd.) Brent Scowcroft, Mupi wezano weNational Security kuVatungamiriri Gerald Ford naGeorge HW Bush, vakaburitsa chinyorwa muThe Wall Street Journal chine musoro unoti "Usarwisa Saddam" vachiita nharo dzakafanana.

Amin Tarzi, aigara achikurukura nezve "kuenzana kweGulf mushure meSaddam" panguva yekubvunzurudzwa kwake kwakawanda. Akataura kuti kubviswa kwehurumende yeBaʿath Party isina chekuita nechitendero uye kukanganiswa kweIraq kwaizobvisa kudzvinyirirwa kweIraq neIran zvichiparadzana.

Kusavapo kwakakonzerwa nekubviswa kwaSaddam kwakaita kuti Iran isave simba rakadziviswa kana kuti rakadzipwa kuenda kusimba redunhu. kuwedzera simba rayo kubva kuGulf kuenda kuLevant, pamwe chete nekutaura kwakashata kwechimurenga pamusoro peUS neIsrael.

Dzimwe nzvimbo mbiri dzakasimudzira mbeu yakadyarwa muna 2003. Idzi ndidzo (a) Abrahama Anobvumirana: Chirongwa cheHurumende yaTrump I chakagadzirirwa kunzvenga nyaya huru yekuva nyika yePalestine uye kunyengetedza nyika dziri kuMiddle East nenyika dzine maMuslim akawanda kune dzimwe nzvimbo kuti dzizive Israeri; uye (b) Hamas, vachiziva kuti chinangwa chaicho cheAgreement yaAbraham Agreements chaive chekusiya maPalestine zvachose uye chishuwo chavo chekuti nyika yavo ikandwe mudura renhoroondo, vakaita chiito chehutsinye uye chinotyisa chekuuraya vanhu 1195 vaipinda mubato uye kutora vanhu vanosvika 250 vakatapwa musi wa7 Gumiguru, 2023. Hurumende yeNetanyahu yakashandisa chiitiko ichi sechikonzero cheku kuita kuchenesa madzinza muGaza Strip.

Nyanzvi dzakawanda dzechiJudha dzeHolocaust vakapomera mauto eIsrael Defence Forces (IDF) mhosva yekukonzera kuurayiwa kwevanhu muGaza Strip. Hurumende yeNetanyahu yakashandisawo chikafu nezvombo (zvese kugoverwa kwacho nekuendeswa kwacho) pamwe nemishonga. Ongororo yemifananidzo yesatellite yakaitwa neSangano reNyika inoratidza kuti 80% kusvika 92% yedzimba nezvivakwa zvevanhuwo zvavo nzvimbo yese yeGaza Strip yakaparadzwa kuti nzvimbo iyi igarwe nevanhu. Kubva ku zvakataurwa pachena nevashumiri vakasiyana-siyana MuHurumende yeNetanyahu zviri pachena kuti Hurumende yeIsrael iri kuda kuitora zvachose uye kuiita nyika yeIsrael. VaPalestine vanosvika 73,000 vakaurayiwa neIDF uye huwandu hwevanhu vari kuverengwa huchiri kuwedzera. Imwe mushumo weUN yakawana kuti zviuru zvakawanda vakaurayiwa padiki kwazvo (kusanganisira zviuru zvevana nevakadzi).

Hurumende yeNetanyahu nevezvenhau vanotsigira nyaya yeHurumende yeIsrael vanoramba kutsoropodzwa kwakadaro nenyanzvi dzechiJudha dzinoremekedzwa zvikuru dzekuuraya vanhu, Hurumende dzakasiyana-siyana dzekumadokero, masangano epasi rose akadai seUN, Amnesty International, Red Cross/Red Crescent, Médecins Sans Frontières, nemamwe masangano akawanda erudo akavakirwa paruvengo rwechiJudha uye vanoanyomba sevanoparadzira mashoko eHamas (= spin doctors).

ZVIBVUMIRANO ZVAABRAHAM — MUTEMO WEUS HUNOITWA USINA KUKOSHA

Uyu waive mutemo wekutengeserana wakasimbiswa neHurumende yaTrump I. Pfungwa dziri shure kwe Abrahama Anobvumirana yaiva yekuti nyika dzine vazhinji vechiMuslim, kunyanya idzo dzisina kubudirira kana kuti dzisina kubudirira dzaizobvunzwa kuti vazive Israeri vaizovimbiswa rubatsiro rwezvehupfumi, kubvisirwa zvikwereti kana kuwana mukana wekuwana masangano emari epasi rose, nezvimwewo kana zvimwe zvinokurudzira zvisiri zvehupfumi kwavaive vasina dziviriro. Mutungamiri Biden akaedzawo kutevedzera mutemo uyu asi haana kubudirira. Pakati penyika dzechiMuslim dzakapfuma dzakabvuma Israeri pasi pehurongwa uhwu paive neUAE neBahrain. Nyika mbiri dzekupedzisira dzakatevera Zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana kwehunyanzvi hwepamusoro nezvombo zvepamusoro, uye nyika dzine urombo dzakaona kuzivikanwa kweIsraeri senzira yekubatsira hupfumi.

Nyika shanu dzakabvumirana kugadzirisa hukama hwezvekudyidzana neIsrael pasi pemutemo we Hurongwa hwechibvumirano chaAbraham. Nyika idzi dzinenge dzese dzakagara kwenguva yakareba dzichiita kutaurirana kwakaderera, kwakavanzika, kana kwepamutemo kusiri kwezvematongerwo enyika neIsrael, kusanganisira UAE. Izvi zvaive:

• The United Arab Emirates (UAE) yakakwezvwa kuti izivikanwe neIsrael nekupa mukana wekushandisa zvombo zvehondo zveUS zvepamusoro, kusanganisira ndege dzehondo dzeF-35. Paiva nezvimwe zvikonzero zviviri zveUAE: inotevera mutemo wekunze uyo uchaiunzira mikana yakawanda yekusiyana-siyana mune zvehupfumi. Chechipiri, UAE inovenga Hurumende yeRevolution yeIran seIsrael. Chimwe chikonzero, UAE yakapa, ichitsigira chisarudzo chayo, ndechekuti Israel yakanga yabvuma "kumisa" mutemo wepamutemo, wekuti de jure kuwedzera yeWest Bank. UAE yaitove nehofisi yekutengeserana yeIsrael.
• Bhahareni Nyika iri pasi peSaudi Arabia, yakanga yagara iine hukama hwebhizinesi nehunyanzvi hwakavanzika kana husiri hwepamutemo (kutenga maapplication eIsrael kuti iongorore vanhu vayo) neIsrael kwenguva yakareba. Umambo hwayo hweSunni hahufarirwi nevanhu vayo vazhinji veShia.
• Moroko Mukutsinhana kugadzirisa hukama neIsrael, US yakabvuma zviri pamutemo hutongi hweMorocco pamusoro pe Western Sahara uko boka revapanduki, Polisario Front iri kurwisa Royal Moroccan Army kuti iumbe Western Sahara yakazvimirira.
• Sudhani Apa mari yaitaura. Dare reTransitional Sovereignty Council reSudan rakagara nhaka hupfumi hwakabhuroka. kuchinjana kwekuzivikanwa kweIsraeri, yakapihwa rubatsiro rwezvehupfumi rwekukurumidzira, kusunungurwa kwechikwereti, uye mukana wekuwana mari kubva kuIMF. Asi Sudan havana kumbobvira vawana rubatsiro rwechikwereti kana rubatsiro rwekukurumidzira nekuti nyika yakanga yazara nedambudziko re Civil war nguva pfupi yadarika.
• Kosovo US yakataurirana/yakabatanidza "kugadzirisa hupfumi" hweKosovo neSerbia. Kosovo yakavimbiswawo zvikwereti zvemagetsi uye rumwe rubatsiro mukuvandudza zvivakwa. Yakavimbiswawo mari huru yekudyara muUS hazvina zvazvinobatsira zvakanyanyaKosovo yakava dambudziko guru rekusawirirana kukuru kwezvematongerwo enyika muEurope.

Zvipikirwa zvemari zvakawanda zvakaitwa hazvina kuzadzikiswa. Gore rapera, Kazakhstan yakava yechitanhatu asi yakanga yasimbisa hukama hwakazara neIsrael kutanga kwema1990.

Zvakaenderera mberi kuita of genocide nemauto eIsrael muGaza Strip neWest Bank uye mutemo weIsrael wekuramba vachivaka misha yevaJudha zvisiri pamutemo muPalestine waita kuti mutemo uyu usafarirwe zvakanyanya zvekuti kunyangwe munhu anozvikudza asingafarire mafungiro everuzhinji aisazoda kutora chikamu mauri. Yaive gadziriro yekuvaka mubatanidzwa nekupa zvinokurudzira zvehupfumi, kwete kuvaka rugare: chinangwa chikuru chechirongwa ichi chaive chekuisa parutivi kurwira kwevaPalestine nyika yavo kana kuva nyika yavo nekusingaperi, kuvakanda mudura renhoroondo senzira yekutenga rukudzo kuIsrael. Izvi zvinoonekwa zvakanyanya, kushandisa mashoko aMutungamiri Biden se "nyika ine hutsinye kana mutambi".

Chibvumirano chaAbraham chave chimwe chezvakakuvadzwa muhondo yeIsrael neUS neIran.

Umambo hweGULF: Kusawirirana pakati pevechidiki

Sezvandakareva mukati chinyorwa changu chekutanga, Gulf Cooperation Council States haisi vavakidzani vakanaka. Kazhinji, hukama hwavo hune mhando nhatu dzekusawirirana: (a) kusawirirana kwakadzika midzi munhoroondo yeIslam; (b) kusawirirana kwemiganhu yenyika negungwa kusina kugadziriswa; uye (c) munguva pfupi yapfuura kune aya mapoka maviri ekusawirirana kwakawedzerwa rimwe boka: kusawirirana kunobva mukuwedzera kwemakwikwi ehupfumi uye maitiro akasiyana ezvematongerwo enyika (maonero avo akasiyana enyika).

Tinofanira kuziva zvishoma nezvemakakatanwa aya, kana mushure mehondo yeIsrael-US neIran, tichifanira kuona kuti nyika dzakasiyana dzeGulf dzinogona kushanda pamwe chete kusvika papi kuti dzigadzire mhinduro imwechete yekuchengetedza. Nemamwe mashoko, kuva nesimba mukugadzira ramangwana renharaunda yavo.

Kusawirirana Kwakadzika Munhoroondo yeIslam

Zvatinoziva nhasi seSaudi Arabia hazvina kumbovapo senyika imwe chete (seEgypt neSyria) panguva yeOttoman Sultanate. Yekupedzisira iyi yakakuvadzwa neHondo Yenyika I. Saudi Arabia yanhasi imhedzisiro yekubatana kwemadzinza kwakawanda uye hondo dzakatevedzana dzakatungamirwa naAbdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud kwemakore makumi matatu. Saudi Arabia, senyika, yakavapo munaGunyana, 1932.

Mambo Abdulaziz vaive sekuru vababa veMuchinda weSaudi aripo iye zvino, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Pamusoro pekuve nyika yakakura kwazvo munharaunda iyi, Saudi Arabia ndiyo zvakare nzvimbo yakazvarirwa Muporofita Mohammed. Uyezve, nzvimbo mbiri tsvene dzeIslam, Mecca neMedina, dziri muSaudi Arabia. Oiri yakaita kuti ive nyika yakapfuma zvikuru. Nezvikonzero izvi zvese, Saudi Arabia inofunga kuti inofanira kugamuchirwa sevatungamiriri vasina mubvunzo kwete veGulf Cooperation Council kana nhengo dzeGCC chete, asiwo venyika yese yeMuslim (Ummat al-Islām).

Kusawirirana pakati peSaudi Arabia neUAE

Kusawirirana kuripo pakati peGulf Cooperation Council kana nhengo dzeGCC kuri pakati peSaudi Arabia neAbu Dhabi. UAE nemaSaudi vakazivana pavakasaina Chibvumirano cheJeddah muna 1974. Zvisinei, UAE (muchokwadi, Abu Dhabi) inoti rugwaro rwekupedzisira rwechibvumirano haruenderane ne zvibvumirano zvemuromo zvakaitwa pakati pavo, uye chibvumirano chakasainwa pasi pekumanikidzwa.

Chibvumirano ichi chinopa nzvimbo yakakura kuSaudi Arabia, kusanganisira nzvimbo hombe yemafuta yeShaybah (UAE inoti yakavimbiswa kuva muridzi wayo). Chibvumirano ichi chakapawo Saudi Arabia nzira yepasi ine makiromita makumi maviri nemashanu kuenda kuPersian Gulf kumabvazuva kweQatar. Izvi zvakadzivirira UAE kuti ive nenzira yakananga kuenda kuQatar. UAE inotiwo kusiya nzira yepasi kuenda kuSaudi Arabia hakufanirwe kukanganisa nzvimbo dzayo dzekutanga dzehupfumi hwegungwa.

Mu 2005, UAE yaida kuvaka zambuko pakati penyika mbiri idzi (UAE-Qatar Causeway), asi Saudi Arabia yakaramba. Zvisinei, mushure me2021 Chibvumirano chekuyananisa cheAl-Ula pakati peQATAR neGCC, chirongwa ichi chakatanga kushanda zviri pamutemo. enda mberi.

Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MBZ) ndiye Emir weAbu Dhabi uye Mutungamiriri weUAE. Ndiye mutungamiriri weGulf anonyanya kusada zvechitendero. ari kupesana nemapoka echiIslam (semuenzaniso, Al Qaeda, Islamic State (ISIS), Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, nezvimwewo). Anofunga kuti vese vanoda kuumba caliphate neQuran panzvimbo pebumbiro remitemo. Zvisinei, hazvirevi kuti iye inyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika inosimudzira rusununguko kana kuti isina chekuita nechitendero sezvatinonzwisisa mazwi ekuMadokero.

Mutemo wake wezvekunze unobva pachido chake chekuti UAE ive nzvimbo yekudyara mari pasi rose. UAE inokoshesa zvido zvayo zvehupfumi nezvinangwa zvayo zvekurwisa chiIslam pane kurwisa Iran. UAE ndiyo yaive nhengo yekutanga yeGCC kugadza hukama hwakazara hwezvekudyidzana nedzimwe nyika neIsrael. UAE inoona Israel senzvimbo yeruzivo rwepamusoro rwekudzivirira uye UAE inopawo rubatsiro rwemari kumakambani eIsrael.

Saudi Arabia inofunga nezve Iran senjodzi huru yekuchengetedzeka kwenyika uye anoda kuidzora achishandisa nzira dzezvematongerwo enyika. Mukuona kwevaSaudi, Israeri isimba rinoparadza mudunhu.

Kuti Saudi Arabia ideredze simba rayo, UAE yakapindura nekusimbisa hukama hwayo neIsrael neIndia.

Nyika mbiri idzi (UAE neSaudi Arabia) dzinotsigirawo mapoka anopikisa muYemen neSudan. Zvinopfuura hafu yezvinhu zvose zvinotengeswa neSudan zvinoendeswa kuUAE. Nyika yekupedzisira iyi ine chido chekuvaka chiteshi chengarava pamhenderekedzo yegungwa reSudan paGungwa Dzvuku, sechikamu chehurongwa hwayo. Maitiro e "chain port"Munyika yaimbova nemafuta ekare, UAE inozvifungidzira senyika ine simba guru rezvekufambisa zvinhu uye rezvemugungwa pasi rose. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, Israel yakabvuma Somaliland. Saudi Arabia inofungidzira kuti UAE (iyo inotarisira zviteshi zvese zveSomaliland) vakakurudzira Israeri kuti vaite izvozvo.

Kukwikwidzana kwakanyanya kwehupfumi pakati peSaudi Arabia neUAE kunokonzerawo kusawirirana pakati pavo, semuenzaniso, vachishandisa mukana wehuwandu hwevanhu vayo nehukuru hwenzvimbo, Saudi Arabia iri kumanikidza makambani ekunze vanoda kuita bhizinesi nenyika dzeGulf kuti vagadzire muzinda wavo muSaudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia inoda kugadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika munharaunda iyi uye mitengo yepamusoro yemafuta kuti hupfumi hwayo hubudirire kusiyanisa. Sekutsigira vimbiso yekuchengetedza yeUS, yakasaina chibvumirano chekudzivirirana chakafanana neNATO nePakistan. Izvi zvawedzerawo hukama neUAE sezvo gare gare ichiona Pakistan senyika isina kugadzikana uye nzvimbo yekupotera uye yekudzidzira maIslam.

Chiito chekupedzisira chakakanganisa hukama pakati penyika mbiri idzi chaive chisarudzo cheUAE chekubuda muOPEC. Danho iri richabvumira UAE mafuta akawanda sezvainogona, kunyanya kuIndia.

Nharo Dzematunhu Mhiri Kwegungwa

Kune zvitsuwa zvitatu muPersian Gulf zviri pasi pegungwa. zvakatorwa neUAE asi Iran inovatonga. Saizvozvowo, Saudi Arabia neKuwait pamwe chete vanoti muridzi yemunda wegasi rechisikigo uri kunze kwenyika, iyo Munda wegesi weAl-Durra/ArashIran inotiwo chikamu chemunda uyu wegesi.

KUSANGANISANA KUNE ZVINHU ZVAKASIYANA PAMUSORO PEKUNE DZIMWE NYIKA

Qatar inotevedzera mutemo wekubatana nevatambi vakasiyana-siyana vematunhu enyika nevekunze kwenyika (semuenzaniso, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, nezvimwewo). Mushure meArab Spring (kutanga pakupera kwa2010 uye kutanga kwa2011) iyo yakaunza Muslim Brotherhood kusimba muEgypt muna 2012, mutemo wakadaro wakave nyaya inonetsa zvikuru kumadzimambo ese mashanu akasara eGCC aitya kupona kwavo. Nekuda kweizvozvo, nhengo dzese shanu dzeGCC pamwe chete dzakaisa kuvharirwa kweQatar zvachose kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi. Zvakagara kwemakore matatu nehafu (kubva muna 2017 kusvika 2021) kusvika zvagadziriswa nekusainwa kwemutemo. Chibvumirano chekuyananisa cheAlUla.

Uyezve, dzimwe nyika dziri nhengo dzeumambo hweGCC dzinoona Al Jazeera inotongwa neHurumende yeQatar senzira yezvematongerwo enyika ine hutsinye yekutonga kwekunze kweQatar. Al Jazeera inoburitsa nhau pasi rese pasina kupindira kwevatori venhau kubva kumuridzi wayo, asi kumba muQatar, pamutemo, iri havabvumidzwe kutsoropodza Hurumende yeQatari kana mhuri yehumambo.

Pakupedzisira, Oman yakazviparadzanisa nevamwe vari muGCC nekutevera mutemo wekunze usina divi rawo reSwitzerland.

GULF STATES: HUREMU HWAKADII

In wangu chinyorwa chapfuura (yakaburitswa pano musi wa29 Chikumi, 2026), ndakataura kuti nyika dzeGulf dzine nzvimbo yakagadzikana mune zvematongerwo enyika ine mafungiro emagariro evanhu akasununguka. Izvi zvinonyanya kuitika kuAbu Dhabi neDubai, mbiri dzeemirates nomwe dzinoumba UAE.

Zvisinei, zvingave zvisirizvo kufananidza rusununguko rwemagariro evanhu rwunowanikwa muUAE kana mune chero imwe nyika yeGulf nerunowanikwa munyika dzekumadokero dzerusununguko rwerusununguko kana kunyangwe muIndia uko democracy iri kudzvinyirirwa zvishoma nezvishoma muhupenyu hwevanhu.

Kunyange hazvo nhengo dzese nhanhatu dzeGCC dzichipa mwero wakasiyana wekushivirirana kwemhuri, dzinoiswa muchikamu che "Hadzina Rusununguko" kana "dzinodzvinyirira zvakanyanya" nemasangano akaita se Imba yerusununguko uye Amnesty International.

Nhengo dzese dzeGCC dzinodzora kupikisa kwezvematongerwo enyika, dzinoita kuti rusununguko rwekutaura rungave rwuri rwezvematongerwo enyika ruve mhosva, uye shandisai miganhu yakasimba pamusoro perusununguko rwevanhu. Izvi zvinosanganisira midhiya yedhijitari: nhengo dzeGCC vakasunga vanhu 1000 panguva yehondo yeUS-Iran ichangopfuura nekuda kwekunyora mashoko aipesana nenyaya yeHurumende. Pane zvakawanda kutarisa kwedhijitari kunopindira kana kuteverwa kwedhijitari, kusanganisira kuongororwa kwefoni pamba nemba. kafalah hurongwa (hwekutsigira) hunosiya mamiriyoni evashandi vanobva kune dzimwe nyika kunetsa kuba mihoro, kutora magwaro, uranda hwepabonde, mamiriro ebasa anodzvinyirira, nezvimwewo pasina nzira yekuenda kumatare kunze kwemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara.

Kutongwa kwevanhu vakawanda uye kusungwa kwevanhu vasina mhosva vanorwira kodzero dzevanhu Zvakajairika muGulf States dzese nhanhatu. Kutsoropodzwa kwemhuri yehumambo imhosva muGulf States dzese. Kuisa zvinyorwa paindaneti "zvinotyora tsika kana misimboti yemagariro evanhu" kana "zvinochera vamwe" (verenga nhau dzekutsvaga ruzivo) kunogona kukonzera Makore 3-5 mujeri.

Muenzaniso wekuchengetedza ungangove wakanyanya

Ndeipi nzira yekudzivirira inogona kumuka nekuda kwehondo iyi? Zvinhu zviviri zviri pachena.

Chekutanga, kubva muhurukuro iri pamusoro apa tinoziva, sepurasita yakapwanyika pamadziro, kubatana kweGCC kwakapwanyika munzvimbo dzakawanda.

Mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma kudaro munhu angadai akatarisira kuti nhengo dzeGCC dzichaisa kusawirirana kwavo parutivi, dzoungana, dzounganidza zviwanikwa zvavo kuti dzigadzire hurongwa hwekuchengetedza hwakabatana huchaita sehwakavimbika, dzodzivisa vavengi vavo, dzichaderedza kuvimba kwavo - kusvika pamwero wakati - neUS kana chero mumwe mushandi wepasi, uye dzichavabvumira kugadzira ramangwana renharaunda kuitira kuti riratidze maonero avo epasi rose.

Kunyange zvakadaro, kupatsanurana uku kunoita sekunge kuri kuwedzera pakati penhengo mbiri dzakakosha dzeGCC: Saudi Arabia neUAE. Musi wa28 Kubvumbi, nguva pfupi mushure mekunge chibvumirano chekumisa mhirizhonga chatanga kushanda, UAE yakazivisa kuti yaizobuda muOPEC kubva musi wa1 Chivabvu 2026.

Chechipiri, sezvo hondo yakaramba ichienderera mberi Mutungamiri Trump asina kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvake, US yakaramba ichiwedzera kuva nhapwa dzezvematongerwo enyika yemuno pamwe nedambudziko rehupfumi hwenyika. Mutungamiri Trump akaonawo kuti aisakwanisa kutakura mari yekuvhura Strait of Hormuz nechisimba. Chiito chakadaro chaigona kukonzera kunyura kwendege imwe kana kupfuura dzeUS Navy dzinoparadza uye kufa kwemazana evarume vayo vakapfeka yunifomu.

Saka chibvumirano cheMemorandum of Understanding (MOU) chakasainwa isungano iyo mamiriro avo ezvinhu kana zvirambidzo zvakaisa paUS neIran.

Saudi Arabia neUAE dzakagamuchira pachena, asi dzinoona kuti MOU iri gwaro rinosuwisa uye rine divi rimwe chete. Harina kutaura nezvemabhomba eIran anotyisa uye mapurogiramu epamusoro edrones. Ndima yechishanu yeMOU inoti Iran yakangobvuma kupfuura nepakati peStrait of Hormuz kwemazuva makumi matanhatu. Havafaririwo mukana wekuti vangangoda kupa mari yeUS$300 bhiriyoni yeIran yekuvakazve.

Muchidimbu, zvawedzera kutya kwavo US.

Mauto ekudzivirira madzimambo kwete vavengi vekunze

Saudi Arabia inoona sekuti ikodzero yayo yekutonga maArab (kana kuti iri kuedza kudzoreredza chinzvimbo ichocho chenhoroondo mushure mekuparadzwa kweOttoman Empire). Nekuda kweizvozvo, (a) inoda kushivirira - nekuda kwezvikonzero zvehurongwa - mamwe emaIslam aya nemabasa avo; (b) kushandisa diplomacy kuderedza kusagadzikana (kudzikamisa kukwira kwenzvimbo mbiri); (c) kuisa kukosha pakugadzikana kwenzvimbo; uye (d) inoda kuti UAE igamuchire hutungamiriri hwayo hwenzvimbo iyi nekuda kwe (a) zvataurwa pamusoro apa.

In wangu chinyorwa chekutanga yakaburitswa pano musi wa29 Chikumi 2026, ndakataura kuti panhengo nhanhatu dzeGCC, mauto ekudzivirira eUAE chete ndiwo, munguva pfupi yapfuura, akarongwa nenzira ye spartan model, kureva, kurwisa muvengi wekunze.

Madzimambo eGCC anotya kuti hama dzavo dzicharonga kuvabvisa pachigaro kana kuti vanhu vavo vanogona kuvamukira. Kuti vadzivise izvi, vanochengetedza masangano avo ehondo akapatsanurwa.

Ndosaka madzimambo ese eGulf aine mitemo yakaoma inorambidza rusununguko rwekutaura, kutumira mameseji paindaneti anogona kunge achitsoropodza zvishoma vanhu vari kutonga, uye aine mitemo yekutarisa inopindira.

Zvakakosha kurangarira pano kuti Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) akava sei Mambo wehumambo uye mutongi chaiye kubva pakuva muchengeti wegedhi/munyori wepachivande wababa vake (Mambo Salman aripo iye zvino). Akaronga mhirizhonga yakawanda yemuzinda kuti asvike paari nhasi.

Baba vaMBS, Mambo Salman, pavakagara pachigaro cheumambo, vakagadza munin'ina wavo mudiki kuna baba, Muchinda Muqrin bin Abdulaziz saMambo weChigaro naMambo Mohammed bin Nayef (MBN), mwanakomana wemukoma wake mukuru Nayef, saMutevedzeri weMambo weChigaro. Zvadaro, mukuchinjwa kwesimba remuzinda, Mambo weChigaro ndiye akabvisirwa mabasa ake mushure memwedzi mitatu. MBN, mutevedzeri weMuchinda weCrown, akagadzwa seMuchinda weCrown. Mambo Salman vakatumidza mwanakomana wavo, MBS, seMutevedzeri weMuchinda weCrown.

Muna Chikumi 2017, MBS pachake akafonera MBN kuti auye kuAl Safa Palace (muMecca) nekuti Mambo vaida kumuona nekukasika maererano nedzimwe nyaya. MBN paakasvika kuAl Safa, akasungwa nevashandi vekuchengetedza vaitsigira MBS, uye varindi veMBN vakabviswa zvombo uye vakatorerwa nzira dzese dzekutaurirana. Husiku, MBN akaiswa pasi pekumanikidzwa kukuru kwepfungwa uye akamanikidzwa kusiya chinzvimbo chake achitsigira MBS. Mangwanani, MBN akaunzwa kuna Mambo Salman uyo akabva amubvisa zviri pamutemo chinzvimbo chake nebasa rake. MBN akazoiswa muhusungwa hwepamba.

Nguva pfupi mushure mekugadzwa seCrown Prince, MBS, pasi pe "chirongwa chekurwisa huori" akakomberedza vese vaigona kumupikisa (vanhu vanopfuura 200). Avo vakasungwa vaisanganisira vanhu vakapfuma muumambo, machinda makuru, nemakurukota ehurumende. Vaive vasungwa muRitz-Carlton Hotel muRiyadh. vakasunungurwa vakatorerwa pfuma yavo yakawanda uye vaifanira kusaina vimbiso yekuvimbika kuMBS.

Munhu achasangana nemarudzi akasiyana enyaya iyi muhupenyu hwemadzimambo ese eGulf. Kunyangwe MBZ nevanun'una vake vashanu, vese vatanhatu pamwe chete vainzi "Bani Fatima" zita raamai vavo, vakapfuura vanun'una vavo vakuru vemhuri yekwababa avo vaive pamberi mu kutevera nekutora masimba pamusoro pekuchengetedza, husori, uye masangano emari eUAE. Saka vakabvisa hama dzavo kubva mumutsara wekugara nhaka.

Dunhu Rimwe, Zviono Zviviri Zvakasiyana

Vatungamiriri vaviri vakakosha veGulf State, MBS yeSaudi Arabia neMBZ yeUAE, vari kutevera nzira dzakasiyana-siyana. Vakatoisa mari yakawanda kuti vazadzise zvinangwa zvavo. Saka, zvingangoitika ndezvekuti tichaona mativi mana: (a) Oman ichienderera mberi nehurongwa hwayo hwekusatora rutivi hweSwitzerland ichiziva zvizere kuti kana Oman ikarwiswa, maSaudi neUAE vachaibatsira; (b) UAE ichienda yoga; (c) Saudi Arabia, pamwe neBahrain neKuwait, vachitsvaga hurongwa hwekuchengetedza huchabvumira Saudi Arabia kutarisa paVision yayo 2030; uye (d) Qatar ichisimudzira mari yayo yekudzivirira asi ichiramba yakavhurika, kureva kuti, inogona kubatana nemaSaudi kana UAE zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu.

Regai ndikurukure kuti magadzirirwo ekuchengetedza akagadzirwa neUAE neSaudi Arabia angataridzika sei.

ZVIGADZIRWA ZVEKUCHENGETEDZA MUUAE

Yakarega nzira yekare yekuwana kuenzana pakati pezvinodiwa neWashington neTehran. Mutemo wayo mutsva (UAE Vision 2030) ndewekuvaka umambo hwekutengeserana hwegungwa uye nzvimbo ine simba, kureva, kuva simba guru redunhu.

Kuti ibudirire chinangwa chayo, UAE iri kutevera hurongwa hwakasimba apo isingatyi kutsvaga rubatsiro kubva kumasangano eHurumende kana asiri eHurumende kunyangwe zvichireva kutamba basa rinoita kuti kusagadzikana kusadzikame mune dzimwe nyika dzemuAfrica uye zvichikonzera kusagadzikana kuSaudi Arabia, iyo inonyanya kukwikwidzana nayo mune zveupfumi.

Kuti ibudirire pazvinangwa zvayo zvehupfumi uye kuti ive nerusununguko rwekuzvidzivirira kana kuzvitonga, iri kutevera nzira inonzi I2U2 (kana kuti Israel, India, UAE neUS). Nemamwe mashoko, iri kuwedzera kusimbisa hukama hwayo pakati peIsrael neIndia.

Ichiona kuti kana paine hondo neIran, nzira yePersian Gulf yekutumira zvinhu zvayo inogona kudziviswa neIran, iri kuvaka pombi yemafuta akawanda kuenda kuchiteshi chayo cheFujairah kuti izvidzivirire kubva mukukanganiswa kwakadaro. Uyezve, iri kutora chikamu mukuvaka "bhiriji repasi" rinobva kuIndia, richiyambuka Peninsula yeArabia, uye richipfuura nepakati Chiteshi cheHaifa cheIsrael kuenda kuEurope. Izwi rekuti "Land bridge" harisi zita rakanaka. Rinoreva network yekufambisa zvinhu zvakawanda yenzira dzengarava dzemugungwa uye njanji dzinomhanya zvakanyanya kuti dzibatanidze zviteshi zvekumadokero zveIndia zvakananga kuEurope kuburikidza neArabian Peninsula neIsrael's Port of Haifa. Chirongwa ichi chakatangwa panguva yeHutungamiriri hwaBiden kurwisa Bricks and Road Initiative yeChina. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kushandisa nzira iyi kubva kuIndia kuenda kuEurope kuchabatsira kuderedza nguva dzekufambisa by 40% uye mari yekufambisa ne 30%. Ichapa mari inodzokororwa kuchiteshi chinodzorwa kana kuti chiri cheUAE chiri munzira kuenda kuEurope.

Mukutsinhana nekuwana shamwari munyika dzechiArabhu, Israel inopa UAE yayo tekinoroji yepamusoro yekudzivirira kusanganisira mabhatiri eIron Dome eIsrael ekudzivisa zvombo zvinokandwa (zvinoshandiswawo neIndia), software yayo yepamusoro yekuongorora zvombo nemidziyo yemagetsi yakavakirwa paAI. Israel ichiisa zvishandiso izvi zvekudzivirira zvemhando yepamusoro muUAE, inogona kuedza kushanda kwazvo.

India ichaita basa rakakosha mukusimudzira hupfumi hweUAE uye ichabatsira kuti ikwanise kuzvivimba zvakanyanya mukudzivirira.

UAE iri kutsvaga nzira dzepamusoro-soro dzekuvandudza kuzvitonga kana paine kurwiswa nekuti ine vanhu vashoma. 11-12% chete yevagari vese muUAE ndevekuEmiratis. Hukama hweUAE neIndia hwakabatana munzira mbiri: (a) India inopa vanhu vasina hunyanzvi, vasina hunyanzvi uye vane hunyanzvi hunodiwa pamabasa ayo ehupfumi; uye (b) India inopa mukana wekuwana ruzivo rwayo rwetekinoroji yekudzivirira, semuenzaniso, UAE iri kutsvaga mukana wekutenga Mabhomba eBrahMos eIndia ane simba repamusoro uye Sisitimu yekuraira nekudzora yekudzivirira mhepo yeAkashteer, network yeIndia inoshanda otomatiki, yakagadzirirwa kuona nekutevera njodzi dzemudenga dzinofamba nekukurumidza.

Sechikamu che kushandira pamwe kwemativi matatuUAE, Israel neIndia dziri kuronga kubatana kuti dzigadzire ma semiconductor emazuva ano anoshandiswa neAI muzvikamu zvendege. Mumabhizinesi akadaro, UAE ichapa mari, ruzivo rwehunyanzvi rwepamusoro rweIsrael uye India ichashandisa nzvimbo yayo yekugadzira yakasiyana-siyana kuvaka zvinhu izvi kunyika dzese nhatu.

Uyezve, UAE ichawedzera nzvimbo dzayo dzekuchengetera mafuta kuitira kuti India isazobatwa isina kutarisirwa kana paine emergency.

UAE iri kutengawo kambani ine simba mumakambani madiki anoshanda muchikamu chekudzivirira, semuenzaniso, Milrem Robotics yekuEstonia, uye Flaris yekuPoland. Iyo yekupedzisira inogadzira ndege dzemhando yepamusoro, dzakapfava nekabhoni (VLJs). UAE's Edge yakashandura tekinoroji yaFlaris yakaedzwa nehondo kuti igadzire mauto. chisina kukandwa ndege dzemumhepo (madrone) ayo yava kutumira kunze kwenyika.

Zvivakwa zvekuchengetedza zveSaudi

Saudi Arabia's mitemo yekunze kwenyika nekudzivirira zvinotungamirirwa nechido chayo chekushandisa Chiono chayo chegore ra2030. MBS inotenda kuti rugare rwezvematongerwo enyika rwakakosha kuzadzikisa Chiono cheSaudi 2030.

MBS iri kukwikwidzawo kuva nesimba munzvimbo imwe chete iyo UAE iri kutsvaga kutonga.

Kubva mumatambudziko ake muhondo yevagari vemuYemen, MBS yakadzidza kuti ibasa rinodhura, kunyanya kune hupfumi husina mari hwakaita seSaudi Arabia. Mutemo wakadaro unogona zvakare kukwezva kurwiswa kwemadrone nemakombora pazvigadziro zvekugadzira mafuta zveSaudi Arabia. Saka MBS ikozvino iri kutevera mutemo wekuderedza kupararira kwezvematongerwo enyika uye kuyananisa muYemen (kumisa kupatsanurwa kwemaodzanyemba nekutaurirana neHouthis), Sudan (kutsvaga kuyananisa kuri kushanda pakati pemapato maviri ari kurwisana), uye Libya (isingatsigire vanodiwa mapoka epfungwa zvakare uye kushandisa nzira inoshanda yekuzviita ine simba reUAE).

Munzvimbo dzese idzi dzemitambo, UAE iri kutamba kana kuti yakamboita basa rekutamba mitambo ye spoiler.

Kuti igadzirise chero njodzi dzekunze, Saudi Arabia iri kuwedzera hukama hwayo hwekare nePakistan. Nekuda kwekusada kweSaudi Arabia kuronga mauto ayo nenzira yeSpartan, nguva pfupi Hondo yeIsrael neUS neIran isati yatanga, yakakumbira kuti pave nemamwe mauto ePakistan angangoita zviuru gumi munyika yeSaudi. Nemamwe mashoko, Pakistan inopa mauto emari kuSaudi Arabia.

Asi Pakistan yakadzika midzi muhurongwa hwekuchengetedza hweSudi Arabia. Pakistan inoshanda pamwe chete zvakanyanya kubatsira Saudi Arabia kugadzira zvigadzirwa zvayo munharaunda. motokari dzehondo uye masisitimu epasi, zvombo zvehondo nezvombo zvinorema, madrone, masisitimu ezvombo zvehondo uye masisitimu emagetsi anodiwa ekutungamira zvombo zvehondo, nezvimwewo. Inopawo zvinhu zvematangi, ngarava dzinotakura zvombo, ndege dzehondo, nezvimwewo.

India nePakistan dzingave dzisiri shamwari, asi Saudi Arabia ine hukama hwakasimba hwehupfumi neIndia. Yakaisa mari yakawanda muchikamu chemafuta eIndia. Munguva pfupi yapfuura, yakasaina chibvumirano che chibvumirano chekutumira zvombo zvekudzivirira kunze kwenyika inokosha US$225 miriyoni.

Mwedzi mishoma yapfuura, Saudi Arabia nePakistan dzakasaina chibvumirano che Chibvumirano chekudzivirira chakafanana neNATOPane dzimwe nyaya dzinoti Turkey inogonawo kupinda muchibvumirano ichi. Turkey inogona kunge ichitsigira Saudi Arabia, asi tichifunga nezvemamiriro ehupfumi hwayo asina kunaka, zvingave zvakanyanya kuipa. kusada kuisa njodzi hukama hwayo neUAE.

Kunyange hazvo UAE iri kusimbisa hukama hwayo neIsrael, maSaudi Arabia anoona Israel sechikonzero cheizvi. kusagadzikana munharaundaIzvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nemutemo weIsrael wekushandisa mauto ayo ekudzivirira kutanga kugadzirisa dambudziko uye chishuwo cheIsrael chekuva simba guru redunhu risingapokanwe. Saudi Arabia inofunga kuti mhinduro dzemauto eIsrael kune chero zviitiko zvinotyisidzira kuchengetedzeka kweIsrael dzinotyisidzira vanoisa mari.

Mukupedzisa, ndinofanira kutaura kuti nyika mbiri huru mudunhu iri, UAE neSaudi Arabia, nekuda kwemaonero avo akasiyana epasi rose uye zvinodiwa zvehupfumi, dzicharamba dzichiona zvinodiwa zvavo zvekudzivirira nekuchengetedzeka zvakasiyana. Maumambo eGulf anogona kushandira pamwe chete pasina chikonzero, kana rimwe rawo rikarwiswa, asi kupatsanurana kwacho kwakadzika uye kwakasiyana, zvakaoma kuona kuti vane chimiro chakafanana kana chakabatana chekudzivirira. Asi hazvirevi kuti hapana kushandira pamwe. Semuenzaniso, chirongwa chechitima chakamiswa chinofanirwa kubatanidza nhengo dzese nhanhatu dzeGCC chingave chiri kupihwa pekutanga izvozvi. Saizvozvowo, vanogonawo kuwedzera kushandira pamwe kwavo kwehungwaru.

Vidya S. Sharma inopa zano vatengi panjodzi yenyika uye tekinoroji-yakavakirwa kubatana. Akapa zvinyorwa zvakawanda zvemapepanhau ekunyepedzera akadai se: The Canberra Times, The Sydney Morning Herald, Age (Melbourne), Australian Financial Review, The Economic Times (India), Bhizinesi Standard (India), EU Mutori wenhau (Brussels), East Asia Foramu (Canberra), The Business Line (Chennai, India), Nguva yeHindustan (India), The Financial Express (India), The Daily Caller (US). Anogona kufonerwa pa: [email inodzivirirwa].

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