Kuzvidzora kweEurope mukurwisa Iran

“Dambudziko.” “Kutyoka.” Ndiwo mashoko ainyanya kutaurwa muEurope yese mushure meMusangano weKuchengetedza weMunich. Vatsinhiri vakataura vachizvigutsa nezve “Europe yeRugare” yakanaka, kusiyana nepfungwa yekurwisa yaMutungamiri weUS Donald Trump.

Kubva ku Financial Times Kumapepanhau ezuva nezuva eSpain neFrance, pfungwa yekare yakamukazve: Kuvandudzwa kweEurope, tinoudzwa, kuchavakirwa pakusiyana neWashington. Kuvenga America, nyaradzo yakajairika, kwave kufarirwa zvakare.

Ehe, munhu angayeuka kushoropodza kwakanyanya kwakaitwa nemutevedzeri wemutungamiri weUS JD Vance gore rapfuura, paakapomera Europe mhosva yekusazvibata uye kusagadzikana. Asi hazvina kunaka mupfungwa kufuratira kuti Gurukota rezvekunze Marco Rubio akazonyorovesa matauriro ake ndokusimbisa kukosha kwekushandira pamwe kwetransatlantic. Chinonyanya kukosha pari zvino haisi nyaya yekutaura kwekare asi chokwadi chazvino.

Uye chokwadi chiri kufamba nechikepe uchienda kuGungwa reArabia.

Mushure meUSS Abraham Lincoln neUSS George HW Bush, imwe ngarava yechitatu yekutakura ndege yekuAmerica—USS Gerald R. Ford, ngarava yehondo yakakura uye ine simba kupfuura dzose dzati dzambogadzirwa—yava kubva kuCaribbean ichienda kuMiddle East. Iyi haisi theatre; ihurongwa hwehondo.

Mukupera kwesvondo, Trump akapa pachena ayatollahs eIran mazuva makumi matatu ekuti vagamuchire kana kuramba chikumbiro cheAmerica. Hurukuro dziri kutarisirwa kutangazve, uye Steve Witkoff naJared Kushner vekuAmerica vachienda kuGeneva. Mutungamiri wenyika akajekesa kuti kana pasina chibvumirano, mhedzisiro yacho ichave "inotyisa."

Zvinodiwa neWashington zviri kupararira: kuguma kwezvinangwa zveIran zvenyukireya, kuputswa kwechirongwa chayo chezvombo zvinokandwa, uye kumisa kutsigira kwayo vatsigiri vemagandanga. Trump akadzokorora zvakare kuti zvaizova nani kuti hurumende inouraya muTehran—inokonzera kufa kwevanhu vakawanda munyika nekunze kwenyika—inyangarike zvachose.

Izvi zvinangwa zvisingaite. Uye Trump anozviziva.

Maayatollah neIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps havaoni basa ravo sekutengeserana. Vanotenda kuti vari kuzadzisa chinangwa chitsvene: kufambira mberi kweIslam yeShi'ite kusvika pakudzoka kweMahdi muhondo. Zvombo zvenyukireya, zvombo zvinokandwa, varwi vemunharaunda uye vimbiso yekuparadza Israeri hazvisi zvinhu zvekutaurirana—ndizvo zvinhu zvikuru zvepfungwa.

Uku hakusi kutaura kwenhema. Tehran yakaratidza kakawanda kuti ichaisa pangozi yekusangana nematambudziko makuru kuti iite zvinangwa zvayo. Europe inoziva kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, maguta ayo makuru—ari pedyo nekuwedzera kwezvombo zveIran—haaizosiyiwa. Vatican, zvakare, iri pedyo.

Iran haina kumbobvira yatsvaga diplomacy sechinangwa chayo. Yakashandisa izvi senzira—inonzi taqiyya nemutemo wechiIslam, inobvumidza hunyengeri kana zvichidikanwa kuti ikunde muvengi. Europe inozviziva izvi. Inoziva kuti hurumende yeIran inosemesa tsika, kuti yakatevera kugona kwenyukireya ichipesana nezvibvumirano zvepasi rose, kuti zvirango zvekukurumidza zvakatangwa nechikonzero, uye kuti Tehran yakabatana neRussia muhondo yayo neUkraine.

European Union payakati maRevolutionary Guards iboka remagandanga, Tehran yakapindura ichiti "chikanganiso chehurongwa." Ikoko kwaisava mutauro wekubatana.

Europe, Israel neUnited States vakatarisana nemamiriro ezvinhu akafanana. Iran haina musiyano pakati peTel Aviv, Brussels kana Rome mumaonero ayo enguva refu. Asi sezvo Gerald R. Ford iri kuswedera pedyo nedunhu iri, Europe inozvirumbidza nekusiyana kwayo neWashington.

Uchenjeri uhwu here? Kana kuti kufungidzira?

Panguva yenjodzi huru yezvematongerwo enyika—apo Iran neRussia dziri kuwedzera kuwirirana pazvinangwa zvavo—mubatanidzwa wekuMadokero haugone kukwanisa kupatsanurana kwezviratidzo. Europe iri kurwisana nematambudziko ezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi. Mureza unopikisa America hauzodzorere simba rayo.

Kukudzwa nekuchengetedzeka kweEurope kwakavakwazve mushure meHondo Yenyika II nekubatana kweAmerica. Zvinonzi "zororo kubva munhoroondo" zvaisava kukundikana kwetsika asi nguva yakashandirwa zvakaoma yekuvakazve yakagoneswa nekubatana kweAtlantic.

Teresikopu iripo. Gerald R. Ford inoonekwa padyo. Mubvunzo ndewokuti Europe inosarudza kujeka here—kana kuti kunyaradzwa.

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