Vanhu vekuEurope vanofanira kuisa mari muIran here? Aihwa! Kunyangwe mushure me2025

Mushure memakore ekuzviparadzanisa nedzimwe nyika, kusagadzikana kwehupfumi, uye zvirango, makambani eEurope anogona kuyedzwa kutangazve bhizinesi neIran kana Washington neTehran vakamutsiridza chibvumirano chenyukireya cha2015. Vasati vaita, vatariri vakuru uye maofficial ekuteerera vanofanirwa kunyatso funga nezve njodzi dzakakomba dzinouya nekuratidzwa nemaune kune yeIran yekubira mari yakazara nehurongwa hwemari, anonyora Saeed Ghasseminejad.

Pakuitwa kwechibvumirano chenyukireya cha2015, icho chaizivikanwa seJoint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), makambani mazhinji eEurope akamhanyira kuIran kuzokohwa hupfumi. Fortune 500 makambani akadai seFrance's Total, Airbus, uye PSA/Peugeot; Maersk yeDenmark; Germany's Allianz, uye Siemens; uye Eni yeItaly dzakasaina zvibvumirano zvekuisa mari.

Sarudzo yehutongi hwaTrump yekubuda muJCPOA muna 2018 vozotemera zvirango zvakamanikidza makambani aya kuti abude munyika. Zvakadaro hutongi hweBiden hunoshuvira kudzosa chibvumirano chenyukireya; Nhaurirano pakati peAmerica neIran dzakarongwa kutangazve musi wa29 Mbudzi, kuitira kuti mafemu emuEurope awane mukana wekupindazve muIslam Republic.

Havafaniri. Uye chikonzero chakakosha chinofanira kuve pachena: Iyo JCPOA yakagadziridzwa inogona kuramba isingapfuuri chibvumirano chepakutanga - uye kana zvirango zvadzoka pasi peMutungamiriri wenguva yemberi, Dhipatimendi rinotevera reJustice rinogona kuita kuti makambani azvidavirire.

Hapana chikonzero chekufungidzira kuti Joe Biden kana bato rake richakunda musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dza2024. Mutungamiriri anotevera anogona kunge ari Republican anofarira zvirango zvinorema zvinopesana nehutongi hwevafundisi. Makambani eEurope anogona kuzviwana zvakare mune a post-2018 mamiriro. Nechinangwa chekuronga bhizinesi, 2024 yave kukona.

Zvakare, chibvumirano icho hutungamiri hweBiden hunogona kusvika neTehran hachifanire kupedzisa saga renyukireya reIslam Republic. Mune yakanakisa mamiriro ezvinhu, chibvumirano chinogona kumisikidza dambudziko kwemakore mashoma. Chirongwa chenyukireya chehurumende hachina chikonzero chehupfumi. Hazvina chokwadi kuti chero chibvumirano, kunyangwe chine rupo sei mune zvehupfumi, chichaita kuti Tehran ipedze hukuru hwemauto echirongwa chayo chenyukireya. Dambudziko rekutsvaga kweIran bhomba reatomu rinofanirwa kumuka nekukurumidza pane kunonoka. Izvi zvinowedzera zvakanyanya njodzi yekudyara kwenguva refu muIran - kunze kwekunge munhu achifunga kuti maIsrael nemaAmerican vanongogamuchira bhomba senyukireya fait accompli, izvo zvinogoneka asi zvisiri izvo zvingangoitika. 

Makambani mashoma anogona kuwana mikana ine pundutso kunyangwe paine njodzi. Dhigirii yekambani yega yekuratidzwa kune njodzi ine hukama neIran uye zviitiko zvakashata zvinoenderana neangangoita zvinhu zvitatu. Chekutanga imhando yebhizimisi riri kupinda munyika. Semuenzaniso, zvimwe zvinhu zvese zvakaenzana, kuisirwa mari muIran kunowedzera kutarisana nenjodzi pane kutengeserana, sezvo mari inoisa chibvumirano pasi. Kusiyana neizvi, kutengeserana kazhinji hakuiti kana kuzviita kune zvishoma. 

Chechipiri, ukuru uye hupamhi hwemabhizinesi hwakakosha. Makambani anogona kukwanisa kupeta chibvumirano chenguva pfupi mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika asati achinja. Zvingave zvakanyanya kuoma kuita kudaro nekudyara kukuru kwenguva refu. 

Chechitatu, chimiro cheindasitiri chine basa. Hupfumi hweIran, mushure mezvose, hunotongwa nevakashata vanoita senge Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Kudzora uku kungangofumura mapato eEurope panjodzi huru yekutyora mari yehugandanga yekuAmerica, kubira mari, uye mitemo yekodzero dzevanhu nemirairo yevakuru, izvo zvinogona kuramba zviri mumabhuku kunyangwe pasi pehutongi hweBiden.

Zvakakosha, hutongi hweBiden hunogona kumisa zvirango zvehugandanga zveUS kuIran pasina humbowo hwekuti mabhanga nemakambani amira kupa mari yehugandanga. Nekuziva kuita bhizinesi, kunyangwe kutengeserana kwenguva pfupi, nemafemu akadaro anogona kuvhura makambani emuEurope kuti atongwe uye muripo kana hutongi hwemangwana hwakadzoreredza zvirango zvese zvehugandanga. Kunyangwe pakuita kutengeserana kwekubatsira vanhu, izvo mutemo weUS unoregera zvirango, avo vanotumira zvinhu kuIran vanofanirwa kuongorora vavanodyidzana navo.

Kune mabhizinesi eEurope, zvisinei nekuti vangangove nepi mukana wekusangana nenjodzi muIran, kuisa mari pamberi pesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dza2024 muUnited States chikanganiso. Kunyange pashure, hombe refu-refu mari uye kutengeserana muIran, kunyanya mumaindasitiri anotongwa neIRGC, anogona kunge asina njodzi. Chero bedzi nyika ichiramba iri mumaoko ehudzvanyiriri hwevafundisi husingazofanotaura sarudzo dzayo dzenyukireya, dambudziko rinotevera rinogona kunge rave pedyo.

Iran inogona kuzvizivisa yakavhurika bhizinesi, asi kune vakachenjera, havasi vese magonhi akavhurika akakodzera kupinda.

Saeed Ghasseminejad ndiye chipangamazano mukuru paIran uye hupfumi hwehupfumi kuNheyo yeDziviriro yeDemocracies (FDD). Tevera Saeed pa Twitter@SGhasseminejad. FDD iWashington, DC-yakavakirwa, isiri-bato rekutsvaga sangano rinotarisa nezvekuchengetedzwa kwenyika uye mutemo wekunze.

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