Mamiriro ehupfumi eChina parizvino anoda rutsigiro rutsva rwemitemo

Iyo yazvino data kubva kuChina National Bureau of Statistics yakaratidza kuti hupfumi hwayo hwakakura ne4.8% mukota yekutanga, zvichichengetedza hupfumi hwakasimba uye kubva muchikamu chechina chegore rapfuura. Nekudaro, pakati pekupokana kuri kuramba kuchiitika munyika uye kuwedzera kumanikidza kudzivirira uye kutonga kwedenda, kune rimwe divi, data rekushandisa rinoratidza kukura kwakashata mukutengesa kwese kwekutengesa munaKurume, uye kune rimwe divi, musika wezvivakwa uri. ichiri kuderera nekuderera kwakanyanya mukutengesa, anonyora Wei Hongxu.

Mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, mamiriro ehupfumi eChina haagone kurondedzerwa se "tarisiro". Mhedzisiro yekusagadzikana kwemukati senge COVID-19 yekudzivirira uye matanho ekudzora ari kubuda zvishoma nezvishoma; mamiriro ekunze achawedzerawo kuoma mune ramangwana, uye panogona kunge paine "kusimbisa kaviri" mukukura kwehupfumi hwenyika uye mari. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, mamwe maturusi emitemo anodiwa kudzikamisa zvinhu zvakakosha zveupfumi hwenyika.

Kune hupfumi hwazvino hweChinese, mukuru wezvemari munguva pfupi yapfuura akataura kuti kudzvinyirira katatu kwekushanda kwehupfumi kuchiripo muchikamu chekutanga chegore rino, nepo denda uye kukura kwehupfumi kwakabudawo mamwe mamiriro matsva uye shanduko inoda kutariswa. Pamusoro pezvo, kune zvakare akatsanangurwa zvakajeka anoenderana marongero ekubatanidza nehupfumi uye budiriro yemagariro pasi pedenda, uku achikurudzira kushanda kwehupfumi kuchengetedza huwandu hwakaringana.

Parizvino, matanho ese ari kuitwa zvinoenderana nezvinodiwa zvekufanoedza uye kutora matanho akanangana, uye mamwe masanganiswa emitemo ari kudzidzwa nekugadzirirwa. Vatsvagiri veANBOUND vakataura kuti hupfumi hwazvino hunoda tsigiro yakarongeka, iyo inofanirwa kuratidzwa mugwara rinopfuura iro riripo rose macro policy toni.

Panyaya yegwaro rezvemari, People's Bank of China (PBoC) yatora matanho ekudzikisa chikamu chinodiwa chemari (RRR). Zvakadaro, bhanga guru renyika ratiwo mari iripo pari zvino yatova padanho rakawanda. Kune rumwe rutivi, RRR yakatemwa ichavandudza chimiro chemari uye kusunungura mari yenguva refu; kune rumwe rutivi, ndiko kuderedza mutengo wemari kumasangano emari. RRR kucheka hakuna kukwana kuti systemic kurerutsira. Pasi pemamiriro ekunze ekukwira kwemitengo yepasi rose uye kuomeswa kwemari nemabhanga makuru epakati, nzvimbo yekuwedzera kuwedzera kwemutemo weaggregate ishoma.

Mune ramangwana, mutemo wemari unofanirwa kubhadhara zvakanyanya kumitemo yezvimiro uye kutsigira maSME uye mamwe ari kusimukira maindasitiri ehunyanzvi kuburikidza nekukweretesa zvakare uye zvimwe zvishandiso. Panguva imwecheteyo, maturusi ehurongwa hwemari achatsigira kuvandudzwa kwehurongwa hwemari uye kupa mamiriro emari akagadzikana ekugadzirisa systemic.

Panyaya yegwaro rezvemari, pahwaro hwekushomeka-ku-GDP chiyero che2.8% gore rino, iyo yazvino mutemo yakatarisana nekudzikisa mutero nemubhadharo uye kuisa mari mumabhondi akakosha kubatsira kurerutsa mutoro pahupfumi chaihwo, uye kuve nechokwadi. kugadzikana kwehupfumi nezvemari kuburikidza nekukura kunotungamirirwa nekudyara.

Zvisineyi, tichitarisa nemashandiro ari kuita makambani ehurumende epakati neemuno, makambani ehurumende achiri kusimudzira budiriro gore rino, uye achiri kuita chimwe chibatsiro kumari yehurumende. Panguva imwecheteyo, mukuru mukuru wezvemari akataurawo nezve mukana wekuunganidza mari nenzira yenguva pfupi yemari yehupfumi, kana zvichidiwa, kubatsira kudzikamisa mari yehurumende. Naizvozvo, kusimba kwegwaro rezvemari rinotarisirwa kuwedzera kuwedzera mune ramangwana, uye mutemo wezvemari uchaitawo basa guru rekushandisa idzva remitemo.

Tichitarisa kuzorora kwepolicy mumusika wezvivakwa kubva pakutanga kwegore rino, iyo yazvino yekudzivirira njodzi mutemo inoda kukurumidza kucheneswa kwemusika kwemabhizinesi edzimba, kuitira kuti abvise kuvharika, kudzoreredza kuderera kwemusika wekutengesa zvivakwa. nekukurumidza zvinogoneka, uye kubatsira kudzikamisa kudiwa kwehupfumi hwese. Maererano nehupfumi hwemari, zvisizvo zvisingabatsiri zvemabhangi ezvokutengeserana uye masangano emari asiri mabhengi ane chokuita neimba yakave yakaratidzwa zvishoma nezvishoma.

Nekumisikidzwa zvishoma nezvishoma kweFinancial Stability Law uye nekugadzwa kweiyo mari yekudzivirira njodzi, kukurumidza kubatanidzwa uye kurongeka patsva kwemusika wekutengesa zvivakwa uye kuburitsa mutoro wemusika kunofanirwa kunge kuri kutarisisa kwemitemo yekudzivirira njodzi mune ramangwana, iyo inobatsira zvakare. kusvika pakuzadzikiswa kwe "soft landning" ye macroeconomy.

Kuti uwane kukura kwakadzikama kwehupfumi, China haingodi chete kurongeka kwemari uye kwemari, asiwo mamwe maturusi ekuvandudza kutenderera kutenderera kwemusika. Izvi zvinoratidzwa kwete chete mumunda wekutenderera kwezvinhu, asiwo mune imwezve shanduko yemisika mikuru uye kuvandudzwa kwemisika yematunhu akasiyana. Muchikumbiro chehurumende chekuvaka "musika wakabatana", zvirimo izvi zvakaiswa, uye zvichaitwa nematongerwo akasiyana akakodzera mune ramangwana.

Naizvozvo, shanduko yemasangano uye kuvaka ichave yakatarisana nekusunungura nzvimbo yemusika uye kuwedzera endogenous kukura. Vakuru vezvemari vanotarisira kuti masangano ezvemari ape mamwe masevhisi emari kune akakosha zvinhu, warehousing, uye e-commerce mabhizinesi, uye kutsigira mabhizinesi aya kuti akwidze zvirinani kutyaira uye kubatanidza mhedzisiro yekutakura zvinhu uye cheni dzekugovera. Izvi hazvizongoda kuvandudzwa kwehurongwa hwemari chete, asiwo mari itsva yekuwedzera yekuzadzisa zvinodiwa nehupfumi hutsva. Chinhu chakakosha pane izvi kuvhurwa kwemusika uye kudzoreredzwa kwemitemo kutungamira zviwanikwa zvemari kuminda ine hukama.

Zvichienderana netarisiro uye mutongo wekuchinja kwemamiriro ehupfumi eChina, kurerutswa kwakarongeka kuchiri kudikanwa kutsigira hupfumi uye kudzivirira kuderera kwekukura kwehupfumi. Sezvo zvinhu zvakamira, ichi chinodikanwa chave chichiwedzera kukurumidza.

Kuti hupfumi hurambe huchimhanya munzvimbo dzakaringana, nyika haingofanire chete kuenderera mberi nekusimudzira shanduko yezvimiro uye kuita gadziriso dzemuchinjika, zvese zvakaunganidzwa uye zvimiro zvimiro zvinodawo kusimbisa gadziriso dzavo dzekupokana, kukurudzira kudiwa muzvikamu zvinosimukira uye zvakajairwa. , gadzirisa kupokana kwakakurumbira, uye uwane chiyero chitsva chekugovera uye kudiwa mudanho repamusoro.

Wei Hongxu muongorori paANBOUND, akapedza kudzidza paChikoro cheMathematics paPeking University uye ane PhD mune zveupfumi kubva kuYunivhesiti yeBirmingham, UK.

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