Kubatanidzwa kwedunhu kwakakosha parunyararo nekuchengetedzeka muSouth Caucasus

Kuputsika kwehutongi hwekuzviparadzanisa mudunhu reGarabagh kuAzerbaijan munaGunyana kwakapedzisa hurongwa hwekubvisa vanhu munzvimbo dzakatorwa nyika. Izvi zvanyatso kugumisa kunetsana kwemakumi emakore pakati peArmenia neAzerbaijan pamusoro penzvimbo yataurwa. Kuzivana kwenzvimbo yenyika mbiri idzi, uye kunyanya, kuzivikanwa kweArmenia yeGarabagh sechikamu cheAzerbaijan, kwakaisa hwaro hwakasimba hweremangwana rakagadzikana uye rine runyararo pakati penyika mbiri idzi. Chirevo chemutauriri weparamende yeArmenian Alen Simonyan musi waMbudzi 28 maererano nekucherechedzwa kweArmenia kwenharaunda yeAzerbaijan kusanganisira dunhu reGarabagh uye kusimbisa kwayo kuti "Nyaya yeGarabagh haichipo kuYerevan" inovimbisa zviitiko zvinovaka mune ramangwana, anonyora Vasif Huseynov¹.

Aya masimba akanaka pakati penyika mbiri idzi anogadzira hwaro hwakanaka zvakare hwekubatana pakati penyika nhatu dzeSouth Caucasus. Matanho akati wandei akananga kuchinangwa ichi akaunzwa nevatambi vakasiyana kubva pakapera Hondo yechipiri yeGarabagh (27 Gunyana - 10 Mbudzi 2020). Zvirongwa izvi zvinogona kuiswa mumapoka maviri.

Chekutanga, yakakurudzirwa kugadzira mapuratifomu ekubatana mudunhu pamwe chete neakapoteredza kana mamwe masimba ekunze. Muna Zvita 2020, Vatungamiri veAzerbaijan neTurkiye vakakurudzira pamwe chete iyo 3+3 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia "plus" Russia, Turkiye, uye Iran) fomati. Kunyangwe mabasa ari munzira iyi akanonoka mushure memusangano wekutanga wemutevedzeri wegurukota muna Zvita 2021, nyika dzakatora chikamu (kunze kweGeorgia) dzakadzoreredza boka iri muna Gumiguru 2023, mushure mekuparara kwehutongi hwekuzviparadzanisa muGarabagh. Iyi fomati inoenderana ne "regional solutions kumatambudziko edunhu" nzira inokosheswa neAzerbaijan muchimiro chedunhu geopolitics.

Chimwe chirongwa nekutora chikamu kwemasimba ekunze chakatangwa nehurumende yeGeorgia munaGunyana 2021. Vachizeza kupinda muchirongwa che3+3 nekuda kwekunetsana kweGeorgia neRussia, Mutungamiri Irakli Garibashvili akaisa chikumbiro cherunyararo, chakanzi Peaceful Neighborhood Initiative, " kusimudzira runyararo nekugadzikana muSouth Caucasus”. Chikumbiro chake chakaumbwa pane 3 + 2 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia "pamwe" neEU neUSA) fomati iyo, maererano naGaribashvili, "yaizofambisa nhaurirano nekuvaka chivimbo, uye zvichitungamira mukuitwa kwemhinduro dzinoshanda kumatunhu. nyaya dzinofarira zvakafanana nevatinoshanda navo vekuUS neEU”. Zvakadaro, chirongwa ichi hachina kupa mwero wakafanana webudiriro sefomati ye3+3.

Boka rechipiri rezvirongwa zvekubatanidzwa kwedunhu rinotarisa pakugadzira chimiro chemativi matatu enyika nhatu dzeSouth Caucasus. Izvi zvakakosha zvakanyanya kune runyararo nekuchengetedzeka kwedunhu, pamwe nehupfumi hwayo, kubatana, uye budiriro. Nhoroondo, masimba ekunze akasiyana akateedzera zano re "kupatsanura uye kutonga" kutarisana nenyika dzeSouth Caucasus uye vakashandisa kusawirirana kwedunhu nekuda kwezvido zvavo. Kune rimwe divi, kupindira uku kwakagadzira kusawirirana kutsva uye ruvengo pakati penyika dzeko, kune rumwe rutivi kwakakanganisa kuedza kwevanhu ava kugadzirisa kusawirirana kwavo. Tichipesana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, vatungamiriri venyika idzi havana kumbosangana katatu munguva yose yeSoviet, kunyange zvazvo vakaungana mune mamwe mapuratifomu akawanda.

Pasinei nezvirongwa zvakasiyana-siyana kubva kuAzerbaijan neGeorgia kudaidza musangano pakati pevatungamiriri venyika nhatu dzakatevera Hondo yeGarabagh yechipiri, hutungamiriri hweArmenia hwakaratidza hunoenderana uye, nezvikonzero zvisina kujeka, hunhu hwekuchenjerera kune iyi mativi matatu. Tichipesana nemamiriro ezvinhu aya, Musangano weMunich Security muna Kukadzi 2023 wakapa mukana wakanaka wevatungamiriri veArmenia, Azerbaijan, neGeorgia kuti vauye pamwe chete paboka rinotaura neSouth Caucasus. Nekudaro, mutungamiriri weArmenian akasarudza kusatora chikamu pamwe nevamwe vake vekuAzerbaijan neGeorgia. Kusarudzika kunocherechedzwa pane izvi kwakaitika muna Chikunguru wegore rapfuura apo gurukota rezvekunze reArmenia rakashanyira Tbilisi kuti vapinde mumusangano wemafomati maviri nemumwe wake weAzerbaijan kekutanga.

Zvakadaro, mushure mekushanya uku, pakanga pasina misangano yevatungamiri kana hurukuro dzerunyararo muGeorgia, uye pakanga pasina matanho emativi matatu kusvika Gumiguru 2023. Nguva iyi yakabatana nekuparadzwa kwehutongi hwekuparadzanisa munharaunda yeAzerbaijan yeGarabagh. Mhedzisiro yakabudirira yekuedza kweAzerbaijan kurwisa vaparadzanisi uye kudzoreredzwa kwenzvimbo yenyika kwakaita basa rakanaka mukusimudzira chirongwa ichi. Mutungamiri Ilham Aliyev vekuAzerbaijan, shasha huru uye mutsigiri wemubatanidzwa wedunhu, vakasimbisa chimiro ichi muhurukuro yavo kurudzi zvichitevera kukunda kwemauto enyika yavo pamusoro pevakazviparadzanisa mudunhu reGarabagh munaGunyana 20, 2023:

“Tinokurudzira kuti remangwana renyika dzeSouth Caucasus rive rakavakirwa parunyararo, runyararo nebudiriro. ...[T] iye zuva harisati riri kure apo Azerbaijan neArmenia dzichagadzirisa nyaya dziri pakati pavo, kusaina chibvumirano cherunyararo, uye nyika dzeSouth Caucasus dzinotanga kushanda mukushandira pamwe mune ramangwana muchimiro chetatu."

Iyi nzira inotsigirwa neMutungamiriri weGeorgia Garibashvili uyo, mumusangano wake wevatori venhau neMutungamiri Aliyev mushure mekushanya kwekupedzisira kuTbilisi muna Gumiguru 8, akataura kuti "Ramangwana redu rinofanira kuva nerunyararo uye rakagadzikana, uye nyika nhatu dzese dzeSouth Caucasus dzinofanira kutaura. nyaya dzematunhu pachadzo.” Mutungamiri Aliyev vakaratidza kutsigira kwavo nzira iyi, vachisimbisa kuti nyika yavo inoona Georgia zvakare senzvimbo yakakodzera yehurukuro dzerunyararo dzeArmenia-Azerbaijan. "Nyika dzinoverengeka uye mamwe masangano epasi rose ari kuyedza kutsigira maitiro ekugadzirisa pakati peArmenia neAzerbaijan nhasi. Tinogamuchira izvozvo. Kana isiri-lop-side uye yakarerekera, hongu, tinogamuchira chero kuyananisira uye rubatsiro. Nekudaro, mukuona kwangu, tichifunga nezve hukama hwenhoroondo uye geographical factor, sarudzo chaiyo mundima iyi ichava Georgia, "akadaro.

Mumashure mayo, musangano wekutanga pakati pemakurukota eGeorgia, Armenia, neAzerbaijan wakaitwa musi wa26 Gumiguru, padivi peSilk Road Forum muTbilisi. Ichi chaive chiitiko chenhoroondo chakasimudza tariro mudunhu iri. Vakuru vatatu ava vakapa mameseji akanaka nezveramangwana redunhu uye vakatsanangura zvirevo zvavo kuchinangwa ichi. Nyika nhatu idzi dzinofanirwa kutora danho iri, kudaidza mimwe misangano yepamusoro-soro, uye kuita matanho anobatika ekusimudzira kubatana muSouth Caucasus.

Pasina kupokana, kuita uku kunosangana nematambudziko akasiyana, anoitika pazvikamu zviviri zve3+3 uye mativi matatu (Armenia-Azerbaijan-Georgia). Nekudaro, nekuda kwerunyararo nekuchengetedzeka muSouth Caucasus, zvirongwa izvi zvine kukosha kukuru. Izvo zvakakosha kuti nyika dzedunhu dzidzivise kuvharwa kwemagetsi kunobva mukuderera kwesimba reRussia kubva pakushandura South Caucasus kuita nhandare yehondo yemakwikwi emasimba makuru. Kubatanidzwa kwedunhu kunomira pachena semhinduro inoshanda mumamiriro ezvinhu aya.

1 Dr. Vasif Huseynov ndiye mukuru wedhipatimendi reWestern Studies paCentre of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) uye adjunct lecturer paADA uye Khazar Universities muBaku, Azerbaijan.

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