Vazhinji vagari veEU 'vakagadzirira' hondo - sarudzo itsva

Ongororo itsva inoti vanhu vazhinji vekuEurope vanobvuma kuti vanofanirwa kugadzirira hondo.

Izvi zvinouya zvichitevera danho rakatorwa nemutungamiri wenyika VaTrump rekubhomba midziyo yenyukireya yeIran mukupera kwesvondo.

Chirevo chekuvhota chenyika dzakawanda, chakaburitswa pamberi pe2025 NATO Summit, chinoratidza rutsigiro rwakapararira muEurope yekuwedzera kwekushandisa mari yekudzivirira, zvirongwa zvezvombo zvekare, uye kudzoreredzwa kwebasa rechiuto rinosungirwa. 

Kuvhota kwakaitwa neEuropean Council on Foreign Relations kunoratidza kuti vanhu vekuEurope vanoramba vakazvipira kuUkraine, uye havazotarisi kubviswa kwerutsigiro rwemauto, kumanikidza Kyiv kusiya matunhu akatorwa, kana kubvisa zvirango kuRussia kana US ikachinja nzira. 

Kunyangwe kupokana neEU kubva kuWhite House, uye kukwira kweanopokana neAmerica mune dzinoverengeka nyika dzeEurope, vagari vazhinji vachiri kutenda kuti US inogona kuvimbwa nayo kuti idzivirire nyukireya uye kuvepo kwemauto mukondinendi. Kune zvakare tarisiro yakapararira yekuti Transatlantic Alliance inogona kugadziriswa mune ramangwana.   

Mukuongorora kwavo, kwakaburitswa neMuvhuro (Chikumi 23), vanyori venhau veECFR uye nyanzvi dzezvekune dzimwe nyika, Ivan Krastev naMark Leonard, vanopokana kuti kuuya kwechipiri kwaTrump kwakatove nemhedzisiro inosvika kure uye zvakakonzera kubuda kwe "zvematongerwo enyika kuchinjika" muEurope. Vanotenda kuti kusagadzikana kwemazuva ano kunopa mukana kune avo vezvematongerwo enyika kuti "vabude mubhizinesi rekudzivirira mamiriro-quo - uye kutangazve kuzivikanwa kweEurope kune nyika itsva ine shanduko". 

Nzira yemutungamiri wechipiri waDonald Trump iri kusimudzira maonero eEurope, vis-a-vis kudzivirira nekuchengeteka, uye kumanikidzira vagari vemo kuti vabvume kuti vanofanira kugadzirira nyika iri muhondo, maererano nemushumo mutsva wekuvhota wenyika dzakawanda wakabudiswa nhasi ne (ECFR). 

Dhata kubva kuongororo yazvino-tank inoratidza kuti kuuya kwechipiri kwaTrump kwakachinja kwete chete hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hweUnited States (US), asi kuti veEurope vanoona sei chengetedzo yavo nekuzivikanwa. Inonongedza kune yakakosha shanduko, kure neTransatlantic Alliance uye Washington-inotsigirwa vimbiso yekuchengetedza, yakananga kuEurope inozvitonga iyo inofanirwa kukwiridzira kugona kwayo. Izvi zvachinja Europe kubva ku'peace project' kuenda kune imwe yave kuwedzera, nekumhanya, mukugadzirira hondo, ine veruzhinji mune dzinoverengeka dzinotungamira Atlanticist states (kusanganisira Denmark, Germany neUK) vari pakati peavo vane chivimbo pamusoro pekudiwa kweEurope kuti ichengetedze kuchengetedzwa kwayo nekudzivirira.  

Rakatsikiswa kuti rienderane nemusangano wesvondo rino we2025 NATO muThe Hague, vhoti yenyika dzakawanda dzenyika gumi nembiri dzeEurope (Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Switzerland neUnited Kingdom) inoratidza rutsigiro rwakapararira muEurope yekuwedzera kwekushandisa mari yekudzivirira (12% paavhareji% paavhareji nyika 50 kuchengetedzwa kwemauto kune gumi nemaviri) tsigiro kuUkraine muchiitiko chekubviswa kweUS (12%), uye nerutsigiro rwekugadzira imwe nzira yeEuropean inodzivirira yenyukireya isingavimbe neUS (24%).  

Iyo dataset, iyo yakatumirwa kuburikidza nevanotungamira sarudzo, YouGov, Datapraxis neNorstat, inoratidzawo shanduko inosvika kure mumapato ezvematongerwo enyika zvichitevera kudzoka kwaTrump kuWhite House. Zvinoratidza kuti veEurope vari kure-kurudyi, mukati memwedzi mitanhatu, vakazvishandura kubva kuva 'sovereigntists' kuenda ku'internationalists', uye vakave vanobatana neMutungamiriri weUS mukuda kwake kugadzirisa zvakare 'hurongwa hwepasirese'. Mapato akati wandei akazviitawo sevatsigiri vane pfungwa dzenyika, uye vanyanduri veEurope inozvitonga, iine simba rekudzosera kumashure kupindira kweUS. Shanduko iyi inoumba chimiro che "zvematongerwo enyika-kupfekana", sekureva kwevanyori vemushumo, Ivan Krastev naMark Leonard.  

Krastev naLeonard, mukuongorora kwavo, vanocherechedza kuti kunyange zvazvo vazhinji muEurope vasina chokwadi neTrump, uye vachida kuona hukuru hwemakondinendi nekudzivirira, izvi hazvishandure mukuvimba kwakazara kuti EU inogona kuzvimiririra. Vanyori vanopokana kuti kunyangwe vanhu vekuEurope vaine chokwadi chekuti hurumende dzavo dzinofanirwa kupindirana nehurongwa hweAmerica kana zvasvika kuUkraine, ivo vakadekara pamusoro pekuvimbika kwezvivimbiso zveUS zvekuchengetedza uye mukana wekumutsiridza mabhendi mhiri kweAtlantic kana Trump abva pachigaro.   

Vanotenda kuti Europe, nhasi, iri kupindura Trump 'revolution' nenzira yakafanana kuvhoti yeBrexit ya2016 - ne "kudzokera kumashure" uye "kutenga nguva yekugadzirira kusvetuka kuri kuuya". Kuti vagari vazhinji vachiri kutenda kuti US inogona kuverengerwa kuti ipe nyukireya kudzivirira (48%), uye kuvepo kwemauto mukondinendi (55%), inotaura kune izvi, vanopokana. Vanotaurawo kune tarisiro yakafararira yakatarisana neramangwana reTransatlantic Alliance (ine 45% yevakapindura munyika dzakaongororwa vachitenda kuti 'ichagadziriswa'), uye ruzhinji rwekuona (54%) kuti EU inogona kumisa hondo yekutengeserana neWashington, semimwe mienzaniso. Kunyange vanyori vachiona zvakakodzera mune iyi "mira uone" maitiro, vanokurudzirawo hurumende dzeEurope kushandisa mukurumbira waTrump kugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika. Kusagadzikana kwanhasi, vanonyora kudaro, kwaunza nzira kune vezvematongerwo enyika kuti "vabude mubhizinesi rekudzivirira chimiro-quo", uye mukana wekuti vagadzirise chitupa chekuEurope che "nyika itsva yechimurenga". 

Mhedzisiro yakawanikwa kubva muongororo yeECFR yenyika dzakawanda inosanganisira: 

• Pane chibvumirano chakapararira muEurope chekuti mari yekudzivirira inofanira kusimuka. Vazhinji muPoland (70%), Denmark (70%), UK (57%), Estonia (56%) nePortugal (54%), vanotsigira (zvichida 'zvakasimba' kana 'zvimwe') pfungwa yekuwedzera mari yekudzivirira yenyika - nehukuru muDenmark neEstonia (nyika mbiri chete dzakabvunzwa mumwe mubvunzo) zvakare mukufarira kuwedzera mari yekudzivirira kusvika ku5% yeGDP. Huzhinji muRomania (50%), Spain (46%), France (45%), Hungary (45%), Germany (47%), neSwitzerland (40%) vakaratidzawo rutsigiro rwekuwedzera mari yekudzivirira. Italy, zvisinei, iri kunze kune iyi maitiro, ine 57% ruzhinji vangave 'zvimwe' kana 'zvakasimba' vanopikisa, uye 17% chete inotsigira kukwidzwa kwemari yekudzivirira.  
   
• Vazhinji vanofarirawo kudzoreredza basa rechiuto rinosungirwa. Vakapindura muFrance (62%), Germany (53%), nePoland (51%) ndivo vatsigiri vakasimba vekufamba kwakadai, nerutsigiro rwakapfava runobva kuHungary (32%), Spain (37%) neUK (37%) (mubvunzo uyu hauna kubvunzwa kuDenmark, Estonia, neSwitzerland nekuti basa rechiuto rave kutosungirwa ikoko). Avo vari mukati memapoka ezera 60-69 uye 70+ vanonyanya kukoshesa pfungwa yekusungirwa basa rechiuto (ne54% uye 58%, zvichiteerana, vachiratidza rutsigiro rwavo). Izvi zvinodzikira, zvisinei, kana zvikaiswa kuboka rediki revanhu (vane makore 18-29). Paavhareji, 27% chete yeboka iri - vane zera rekushanda muhondo ipi neipi - vakaratidza rutsigiro, nepo ruzhinji, 57%, vakaratidza kuti vangapikisa danho rakadaro.  

• VeEurope vakazvipira kuUkraine, zvisinei nemutemo weUS. ECFR data inoratidza kuti hukuru kana kuwanda mugumi neimwe yenyika gumi nembiri dzakaongororwa zvinopesana nepfungwa yekuti Europe ibvise tsigiro yemauto kuUkraine, ichimanikidza Ukraine kusiya nzvimbo inogarwa neRussia, kana kusimudza zvirango zvehupfumi kuRussia - zvisinei nekuchinja kwebumbiro reUS pane aya mapoinzi. Vakapindura muDenmark (78%), Portugal (74%), UK (73%), neEstonia (68%) ndivo vatsigiri vakasimba vekuenderera mberi nerutsigiro rwemauto kana US yabuda. Saizvozvovo, avo vari kuDenmark (72%), Portugal (71%), United Kingdom (69%), neEstonia (68%) ndivo vanonyanya kupikisa pfungwa yekusunda Ukraine kusiya nharaunda yakagarwa, kana US yakagamuchira nzira yakadai; uye zvakare ndivo vapikisi vakasimba pakubvisa zvirango zvehupfumi kuRussia, kana US yakaita seizvi (Denmark, 77%; UK, 71%; Estonia, 69%; nePoland, 68%). 

• Ruvengo rwaVaTrump kuEurope rwapa kuti vanhu vade kupikisa America. Izvi zvinonyanya kuitika kuDenmark, uko 86% yevakabvunzwa vanotenda kuti hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hweUS 'hwatyoka', uye uko ruzhinji rwevanhu vanofunga nezvesarudzo yaTrump sechinhu chakaipa kuvagari vemuAmerica vakawedzera kubva pa54% kusvika 76% muzana mumwedzi mitanhatu chete. Mufananidzo wakafanana unobuda pakati pevagari vechiPutukezi, uko makumi manomwe muzana vanoona hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hweUS, nhasi, 'hwatyoka', zvichienzaniswa ne70% chete, apo ECFR yakabvunza mubvunzo mumwe chete muna Mbudzi 60, zvichitevera kukunda kwaJoe Biden musarudzo. MuUK, neGermany, ruzhinji rwe2020% uye 74% vanofungawo kuti US system yakaputsika. Uye, kunyangwe mutsika pro-American Poland, mugove wevagari vanogovana maonero aya wakakwira kubva pa67% kusvika pa25% kubva muna Mbudzi 36.  

• Pane kusahadzika pamusoro pekuti EU inogona kunyatsobvisa kubva kuUS pakudzivirira nekuchengetedza. Vakapindura muDenmark nePortugal ndivo vane tarisiro huru pamusoro pekuita izvi, ne52% uye 50% yevagari, zvichiteerana, vachitenda kuti 'zvinogoneka' kuti EU ive yakazvimirira kubva kuUS pakudzivirira nekuchengetedza mumakore mashanu anotevera. Kupokana ndiko kwakanyanya kutaurwa muItari neHungary, uko 54% uye 51%, zvichiteerana, vanoona EU kuzvitonga pakuchengetedza nekudzivirira se'zvakaoma kwazvo' kana 'zvisingagoneke' kuita mumakore mashanu anotevera. Kune imwe nzvimbo, vakapindura vakabvarurwa, kusanganisira muRomania (45% vanofunga kuti zvinogoneka vs. 39% vanofunga kuti zvakaoma kana kuti hazvibviri), France (44% vs. 39%), Germany (44% vs. 45%), Poland (38% vs. 48%), Estonia (41% vs. 49%) uye Spain (43% vs. 47%). VekuEurope vari kukahadzikawo pamusoro pekuti EU inogona kuisa parutivi misiyano yemukati menyika uye ive simba repasi rose, rinokwanisa kukwikwidzana neUS neChina mune zvehupfumi. Kutenda kuti EU inogona kuve mutambi akadaro yakapfava - uye maonero evashoma - Munyika gumi neimwe yenyika gumi nembiri dzakabvunzurudzwa neECFR (nevaDanes vari ivo vega vanobuda mukutarisira kwavo).  

• Vazhinji vanotendawo kuti Transatlantic Alliance ichagadziriswa, kana VaTrump vabva pachigaro. Pane tarisiro yakapararira yekuti hukama hwetransatlantic huchavandudza kana Trump abva pachigaro, nemaonero aya anonyanya kuoneka muDenmark (62%), Portugal (54%), Germany neSpain (52%), neFrance (50%). Maonero aya ndiwo asina kusimba muHungary (20%) neRomania (28%), uko vanhu vazhinji - 24% uye 19% zvakateerana - vanotenda kuti Donald Trump haana kunyatso kukuvadza hukama hwetransatlantic. Vashoma chete munyika dzese - uye 22% paavhareji, munyika gumi nembiri dzakabvunzurudzwa - vane pfungwa yekuti havasi Donald Trump chete vakakanganisa hukama pakati peEurope neUSA asiwo kuti 'kukuvadza kungangogara kunyangwe kana Trump abva pachigaro'. Kunze kwezvo, maonero aripo, munyika dzose gumi nembiri dzakaongororwa neECFR, ndeyekuti Europe inogona kuramba ichivimba neUnited States kudzivirira (12% yevagari, paavhareji pamisika yakavhoterwa, vanogovera maonero aya), kuchengetedza mauto eUnited States mukondinendi (48%), uye kudzivisa hondo yekutengeserana neWashington (55%).  
   
• Trump 2.0 yakakurudzira shanduko kwete kwete geopolitical yeEurope - asiwo mukuzivikanwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kwemapato ayo makuru ezvematongerwo enyika. Kudzokera kwaVaTrump kusimba kunoratidzika kunge kwakonzera kubuda kwe "zvematongerwo enyika muchinjiko" muEurope. Vatsigiri vemapato epopulist havachapesana nechimiro-quo - ivo zvino vafarira Trumpian counter-purojekiti. Uye avo vanotsigira mapato makuru havasisiri kungofarira chimiro-quo - ivo vari kuwedzera kutora simba kubva kuva vadziviriri vehutongi hwenyika vachipokana naTrump. Nekuda kweizvozvo, veruzhinji vekuEurope parizvino vakapokana zvakanyanya mumaonero avo ehurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hweUS. Semuyenzaniso, vavhoti vemapato ari kurudyi, Fidesz (Hungary), PiS (Poland), Hama dzekuItaly (Italy), AfD (Germany) neVox (Spain), vane maonero akanaka pamusoro peAmerica - nepo vavhoti vakawanda munyika dzavo vaine maonero asina kunaka ezvematongerwo enyika eUS. Uyezve, kukwanisa kubata US semuenzaniso unoratidzika kunge uchibvumira vanovhota vari kure-kurudyi kuti vanyanye kutaura pachena mukushora kwavo EU. Izvi zvinomiririra kusvetuka kukuru kune vatsigiri vemamwe mapato ane mukurumbira - seaya ePiS (Poland), Vox (Spain) kana Chega (Portugal) - uko fungidziro yekuti EU yatyoka ikozvino yave huru, mushure mekunge yamboitwa ingove vashoma vevavhoti vavo. Ukuwo, vanhu vanovhota vemapato makuru vanoita kunge vari kuungana vachitenderedza mureza weEurope - kunyanya kuGermany neFrance. Mhedzisiro yekuchinja kwakasiyana uku kwemaonero eruzhinji kubuda kwehukama hwakadzokera kumashure mumaonero eUS neEU, iyo yakanga isipo kare.  

Vachitaura nezvemushumo weongororo yenyika dzakawanda, munyori-mubatanidzwa uye mutungamiriri wekutanga weEuropean Council on Foreign Relations, Mark Leonard, akati: 

"Chimurenga chaDonald Trump chasvika kuEurope - ichipidigura hunhu hwayo mune zvematongerwo enyika nezvematongerwo enyika." Sarudzo yedu inoratidza kuti vanhu vekuEurope vanonzwa vasina kuchengetedzeka uye kuti VaTrump vari kufambisa kudiwa kwekuwedzera mari yekudzivirira, kutangwazve kwemauto, uye kuwedzera masimba enyukireya munzvimbo zhinji dzeEurope.  

Ari kushandurawo zvematongerwo enyika zvemumba nenzira yakafanana neBrexit. Mapato ari kure-kurudyi haachangoonekwi seanopokana nehurongwa; vave chikamu chepro-Trump internationale. Kune rimwe divi, mapato mazhinji makuru ari kuzvivandudza sevadziviriri vehuchangamire vachipokana nemhirizhonga yaTrump. " 

Mumwe munyori uye sachigaro weCentre for Liberal Strategies, Ivan Krastev, akawedzera kuti: "Chaizvoizvo mhedzisiro yekuuya kwechipiri kwaTrump ndeyekuti United States yave kupa muenzaniso wakavimbika wekurudyi kweEurope.  

"Kuve pro-America nhasi kunoreva kusahadzika neEU, kuve pro-European zvinoreva kushoropodza America yaTrump." 

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