Kufanotaura kwehupfumi hwechando: Outlook yakagadziridzwa asi njodzi dzichiripo

Kekutanga kubvira 2007, hupfumi hwenyika dzese dziri nhengo dzeEuropean Union hunotarisirwa kukura zvakare gore rino, sekureva kweEuropean Commission fungidziro yechando. Mukufamba kwegore rino, basa rehupfumi rinotarisirwa kutora zvine mwero muEU uye munzvimbo yeEuro, isati yawedzera kukurumidza muna 2016. Kukura kwegore rino kunotarisirwa kukwira kusvika ku1.7% yeEU yose uye ku1.3% kune nzvimbo ye euro. Muna 2016, kukura kwepagore kunofanirwa kusvika 2.1% uye 1.9% zvakateerana, kumashure kwekusimba kwekuda kwemukati nekune dzimwe nyika, hurongwa hwemari hwekugarisa uye chimiro chemari chakasarudzika.

Tarisiro yekukura muEurope yese ichiri kuganhurirwa nenzvimbo isina simba yekudyara uye kushaikwa kwemabasa kwakanyanya. Zvisinei, kubvira mumatsutso, nhamba yezviitiko zvakakosha zvakajekesa maonero ari pedyo. Mitengo yemafuta yakadzikira nekukurumidza kupfuura nakare kose, euro yadzikira zvakanyanya, ECB yakazivisa kuwanda kwekureruka., uye European Commission yakaratidza chirongwa chayo che Investment kuEurope. Zvinhu zvose izvi zvakagadzirirwa kuva nemigumisiro yakanaka pakukura.

Valdis Dombrovskis (pamufananidzo), Mutevedzeri weMutungamiriri weEuro uye Social Dialogue, akati: "Nhasi Europe yakamira panguva yakaoma. Mamiriro ehupfumi akakodzera ari panzvimbo yekukura kwakasimba nekugadzirwa kwemabasa. Zvichitevera sarudzo dzakaoma dzemitemo dzakaitwa nehurumende nekuda kwedambudziko, migumisiro yekuchinja iri kubuda. Tinofanira kukwira kumusoro. Komisheni iri kuita zvisungo zvayo pazvikamu zvitatu zvikuru zvinoti: investment, structural reforms and fiscal responsibility.Kuitwa iko zvino kwave kuNyika dziri kuNhengo. mhinduro dzedu dzichatongwa."

Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner weEconomic and Financial Affairs, Mutero uye Tsika, akati: "Maonero ehupfumi eEurope ari kupenya zvishoma nhasi pane patakaratidza kufungidzira kwedu kwekupedzisira. Kudonha kwemitengo yemafuta uye euro yakachipa iri kupa pfuti inogamuchirwa mumaoko ehupfumi hweEU. Zvichakadaro, Investment Plan yeEurope uye ECB inokosha. Sarudzo dzichangoburwa dzichabatsira kuti pave nerutsigiro rwekuchinja uye mitemo yezvemari ine hungwaru.Asi pachine basa rakaoma riri pamberi apa kuendesa mabasa ari kunetsa kumamiriyoni evaEurope.”

Kukura kwehupfumi kwakakura-kwakavakirwa

Kunyange hazvo nyika dzese dziri nhengo dzichitarisirwa kuve nekukura kwakanaka gore rino uye kupora kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera munzvimbo dzichangoburwa, mutsauko wekuita kwehupfumi muEU yose ungangoenderera mberi. Izvi zviri muchikamu nekuti kufambira mberi nekuverengera pakati pemabhanga, veruzhinji neakazvimirira zvikamu zvichiri kusiyana munhengo dzenhengo. Mhedzisiro yakanaka yemitengo yakaderera yemafuta pakukura ichasiyanawo zvichienderana nekusanganiswa kwesimba renyika imwe neimwe. Mamiriro emari ekugara anogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakanaka munyika idzo mamiriro emari akaoma. Tsigiro yekutengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva mukuderera kweeuro ichaenderana nekutengeserana kwenyika uye maitiro ehunyanzvi. Zvese mune zvese, muna 2015, huwandu hwenhengo dzenhengo dzekukura huwandu hunotarisirwa kuramba hwakafara, kubva pa0.2% (Croatia) kusvika 3.5% (Ireland).

 Inflation ichaderera zvakare isati yasimuka muna 2016

Muitiro wokuti inflation yakaderera yaenderera mberi. Munyika zhinji dziri nhengo, inflation yakambova isina kunaka muna Zvita, zvichikonzera kuderera kwemitengo yemagetsi. Inflation icharamba yakadzikira muna 2015 sezvo mitengo yakaderera ichidzikisira nyaya. Inflation inofanira kuwedzera kubva pakati pe2015 uye mukati megore ra2016, sezvo basa rehupfumi richisimba zvishoma nezvishoma, mihoro inokwira uye kuderera kwehupfumi kunoderera. MuEU, inflation inotarisirwa ku 0.2% mu 2015 uye 1.4% mu 2016. Inflation munharaunda ye euro inofungidzirwa kuva -0.1% gore rino isati yasvika ku1.3% mu2016.

Kugadzirwa kwemabasa kunowedzera asi kushaya mabasainoderera chete zvishoma nezvishoma

Sezvo hupfumi hwenyika huri kuramba huchikwira, ndizvo zvichawedzerawo kuumba mabasa, izvo zvawedzera kubva padanho rakaderera mugore rapfuura. Misika yevashandi inofanirwa kuvandudzwa kusvika pakupera kwenguva yekufanotaura. Asi kukura kwehupfumi kunotarisirwa kunge kusina kukwana kuti zvinhu zvivandudzwe. Huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hwakagadzirirwa kuwira ku9.8% muEU uye 11.2% munzvimbo yeEuro muna 2015. Shanduko dzemusika wevashandi dzakaitwa mumakore achangopfuura dzinotarisirwa kuramba dzichibereka zvibereko uye kubatsira kushaya mabasa kuderera zvakare mu2016.

 Kushomeka kwehurumende kuri kuramba kuchiderera

Kudzikiswa kwekushomeka kwemari muhurumende kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi, asi mamiriro ezvemari haana kwaakarerekera. Iyo deficit-to-GDP ratios inofungidzirwa kuramba ichidonha mumakore maviri anotevera. MuEU, vanotarisirwa kuwira ku2.6% gore rino kubva ku3.0% mu2014 uye kusvika ku2.2% muna 2016. Munharaunda yeEuro, vanofanira kudonha kusvika ku2.2% mu2015 uye 1.9% muna 2016. Nokuda kweEU yose, chikwereti-ku-GDP chikwata chinotarisirwa kuti chakakwira pa88.4% muna 2014. Kunzvimbo ye euro, inofanira kukwira gore rino pa94.4%, isati yaderera.

Kusava nechokwadi kwawedzera

Pakazara, kusava nechokwadi kwakapoteredza maonero ehupfumi huripo kwawedzera. Njodzi dzakadzika dzawedzera, nepo zvinhu zvitsva zvakanaka zvabuda. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nekusawirirana kwegeopolitical, kuvandudzwa kwemusika wemari mumamiriro ezvinhu ekutsaudzira mutemo wemari muhupfumi hukuru, uye kutadza kuita kwekugadzirisa zvimiro. Nguva yakareba yekuderera zvakanyanya kana yakaipa inflation inogona kukanganisawo maonero ekukura. Padivi rakanaka, zvimwe zvinhu zvinogona kutungamira kune yakasimba-kupfuura-inotarisirwa kukwidziridzwa kukukura kwepasirese neEU kunobva pamitengo yakaderera yesimba.

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