20141124PutinMerkelJohn Lough

Batanidza Shamwari, Russia uye Eurasia Chirongwa, Chatham House

Berlin yatama kubva pakuona kwayo kwenguva refu kweRussia senyika yainofanirwa kumbundira kune uyo ane masimba makuru ezvishuvo zvaanofanira kuramba. Gwaro reGermany rakanangana neRussia rakachinja zvakanyanya kubva pakatanga dambudziko muUkraine. Kusimudzirwa kwekubvumirana kwekare muenzaniso unoshamisa wekuti zviito zveRussia muUkraine zvakashandura sei hukama hwayo neEurope.

Pakati penyika dzeEU, Germany ine hukama hwakanyanya hwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi neRussia. Muna 2013, kutengeserana kwenyika mbiri kwaikosha 76.5 bhiriyoni, kwakakamurwa zvakaenzana pakati pezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuRussia, kunyanya oiri negesi, uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kweGerman nenzira yezvinhu zvakapedzwa, kunyanya kubva kumakambani ekugadzira michina uye emotokari.

Mushure mekunyatsokudziridza hukama muRussia kwemakumi emakore, Berlin yakangoerekana yazviona iri pamberi pekuedza kwekuMadokero kutsvaga mhinduro kudambudziko. Tichifunga nezvenhoroondo yayo yehukama neRussia muzana ramakore rapfuura, iyi haisi nzvimbo yainonzwa yakasununguka. Nekudaro, chinodzikisira ndechekuti Warsaw inogovana maonero akafanana nezvedambudziko muUkraine uye iyo Germany-Polish axis imbiru yakakosha yeEU mutemo wekugadzirisa iyo, izvo zvinoita kuti zviome kuRussia kupatsanura EU panyaya iyi.

Dzvinyiriro yekuongororazve mutemo weRussia muGermany yanga ichikura kubva pakudzoka kwaVladimir Putin kuKremlin nekuda kwekuwedzera kuodzwa mwoyo pakati peChristian Democrats neGreens pamusoro pegwara rose reRussia uye, kunyanya, kusagadzikana kweveruzhinji.

The Social Democrats 'chinyakare Ostpolitik masikirwo anotangira kumazuva edetente uye akave West Germany's - uye akazobatana Germany's - default chinzvimbo chekubata Moscow.

Makumi gumi apfuura, vamiriri veGerman vaigona kutaura nezveBerlin ine hukama hwakanakisa neRussia kwemakore zana. Mukuona kwavo, mutungamiri weRussia anotaura chiGermany ane rudo kuGermany akapa mukana wekukudza hukama nekuchengetedza kubatanidzwa kwenguva refu kweRussia muEurope.

Chiratidzo chenguva nyowani ndechekuti Chancellor Angela Merkel neGurukota rezvekunze Frank-Walter Steinmeier vanonyatso kuwirirana pamhinduro yeGermany padambudziko reUkraine. Izvi zvinoratidza kubvumirana kwakakura mumubatanidzwa wemapato avo kuti kuedza kweBerlin kutsvaga 'mubatanidzwa wemazuva ano' neRussia hakuchave chinangwa kana hutungamiriri hweRussia husina kugovera chiratidzo ichi.

Vachiona kusaneta kuedza kwechancellor kuti vaenderere mberi nenhaurirano neMoscow, vatungamiriri vebhizinesi reGerman vakagamuchira kuti pane iyi nyaya, zvematongerwo enyika trump economics. Mutungamiri weFederation of German Industries, Ulrich Grillo, nguva pfupi yadarika akataura kuti kukuvadzwa kubva pazvirango kuchave kwakanyanya kudarika 'kana tikakwanisa kubudirira kupa simba kumutemo wepasi rose muEurope pamwe nemitemo yedu yemutemo'.

Nhamba dzepamutemo dzinoratidza kuti kutengeswa kweGermany kuRussia kuchange kwadzikira nezvikamu makumi maviri kubva muzana gore rino uye Komiti ine simba yeEastern European Economic Relations yakayambira nezvemabasa makumi mashanu kusvika makumi matanhatu e20 akarasika nekuda kweizvozvo kana kutengesa kunze kwenyika kusingakwanise kuendeswa kune dzimwe misika. .

Achitaura kumucheto kweG20 Summit muBrisbane mushure memaawa akati wandei ehurukuro dzinonzi hadzina chadzinobatsira neMutungamiriri Putin, Chancellor Merkel akashandisa mutauro wake wakapinza kutsoropodza maitiro eRussia muUkraine. Akataura kuti "kufunga kwechinyakare munzvimbo dzekupesvedzera pamwe nekutsikwa-tsikwa kwemutemo wepasi rose hakufanirwe kubvumidzwa kubudirira."

Vachidzokorora zvakambotaurwa nezve kudiwa kwekuona dambudziko nenzira yenguva refu, chancellor akawedzera kuti maitiro akadaro haabudirire 'zvisinei kuti zvingatora nguva yakareba sei, kunyangwe zvingave zvakaoma sei uye kunyangwe zvipingaidzo zvakawanda zvingaunza'. Panguva imwecheteyo, akazivisa kutsigira kweEU mune zvematongerwo enyika uye zvehupfumi kuUkraine uye kugadzirira kwayo kuchengetedza zvirango zvichipesana neRussia kwenguva yakareba sezvaidiwa vachichengetedza kuzvipira kutsvaga mhinduro yezvematongerwo enyika padambudziko iri kuburikidza nenhaurirano neRussia.

Kushanya kwaSteinmeier kuKyiv neMoscow svondo rapfuura hakuna kuburitsa kufambira mberi. Akataura kuti kunyange akatora Russia neshoko rayo rekuti yaisada kuparadza kubatana kweUkraine, 'chokwadi chinotaura mumwe mutauro'.

Uku kwaive kucherechedzwa kwakajeka kuti mantra yeBerlin yekudiwa kweRussia neUkraine kuzadzisa zvibvumirano zveMinsk Zvibvumirano zvekupedza gakava riri kumaodzanyemba-kumabvazuva kweUkraine rakakundwa nezviitiko.

Pasina nzvimbo yeBerlin ichangobva kuwanikwa yemusimboti pane zvakaitwa neRussia muUkraine, EU haingambofa yakatemera zvirango zvechikamu kuMoscow. Muedzo wehutungamiriri hweGerman hwekupindura kweEurope padambudziko ndewezvimwe zvaungaite kana kutaura nedivi reRussia kukaramba kusingabudiriri sezvakwakaita mumwedzi ichangopfuura.

Mukati mekuwedzera kwezviratidzo zvekudonha kwehupfumi muUkraine, zviri pachena kuti kunyengetedza mutero weGerman kuti acherere Ukraine sechikamu cherubatsiro rweEuropean kudzikamisa nyika kungave dambudziko rakakura.