Russia neEU vari kusaina mapepa avo okurambana

Maonero naJames Nixey, Musoro, Russia uye Eurasia Chirongwa, Chatham House

Pakuratidzira kwese kweRussia kuti idanda rakazvimiririra munyika, ramangwana rayo renguva refu, sezvakangoita zana remakore rechi18 rakapfuura, riri muEurope.

Inenge 80% yevanhu veRussia vanogara kumadokero kweUrals. Europe haisi musika chete; ndiko kwaunoenda. Asi iye zvino, nyaya dzokurambana dziri kufamba zvakanaka. Zviratidzo zvave zviripo kwenguva yakareba (zvakanaka pamberi peUkraine), asi vashomanana vakafunga kuti zvaizouya kune izvi. Russia haina kuita sezvaitarisirwa neEurope. Uye kune vatungamiriri varipo muRussia, Europe yakachinjana pakati pekutsamwisa mumitemo-yayo-maitiro kana kungoita zvisina basa kune hurongwa hweRussia hwekudzoreredza chinzvimbo chayo chesimba guru.

Kwanga kusiri kwekuda kuyedza, asi misangano misere yeEU-Russia mumakore mana apfuura yaive nyaya dzisina kunaka. Russia yakaodzwa mwoyo nezvayakaona seWestern intransigence pamusoro pekuramba kwayo kupa nzira munharaunda yakagovaniswa, iyo muRussia maonero enyika haina kugovaniswa. EU, ine schizophrenia yemazuva ose, yaitarisira kuti kune mini-Gorbachev reformist yakavanda kune imwe nzvimbo mukati memweya waVladimir Putin, asi panguva imwe chete yakanyara kugara patafura imwe chete iyo Russia ichipikisa mitemo inogamuchirwa pasi rose netsika dzemaitiro.

Europe haina hanya nekupokana kuri pakati pemitemo yayo uye chokwadi cheRussia. Kungave kuburikidza nekusanzwisisa kana kusanzwisisa nemaune, yatadza kuziva kuti marongero ayo ekuunza Russia pedyo neEurope anonyanya kukanganisa kupona kwehurumende yeRussia. MuEU's Partnership for Modernization, semuenzaniso, Russia yakatora mari uye ikafuratira kuvandudzwa.

Mari yeEU yeNGOs uye masangano akazvimirira, kunyangwe ichirumbidzwa, yakatsamwisa Kremlin, sezvo ichiona kusimukira kweveruzhinji sekutyisidzira kwakazara pakubata kwayo simba. Hazvishamisi kuti Kremlin yakatsikitsira pasi. Uye Eastern Partnership, chirongwa chinorumbidzwa (kana chine mwoyo hafu), chakagadzirirwa kutamisa nhanhatu dzedzimwe nyika dzaichimbova dzeSoviet kubva muRussia ndokupinda muMadokero. Zviri, zvichida, kune chikwereti cheWest kuti inoedza. Asi zvinonyadzisa kuti zvinoshamisika kana Russia ichiita zvehasha.

Zvinowanzotaurwa kuti West haina mutemo weRussia. Zvingave zvakadaro, asi zvirinani zvaive nezano - uye zano iri raive rekuti Russia iite seWest pachayo. Izvo zvakatadza kunzwisiswa neveMadokero kwaive kutyisidzira kwaive kuRussia pfungwa yekuzivikanwa, kudada kwayo, uye zvakanyanya kune zvese kumararamiro evakuru. Izvi zvinotsanangura maitiro eRussia. Hazvizvipembedzi. Sei uye nei Europe yakawana Russia isina kururama? Chikamu chedambudziko chave chekuti kufarira kwakanyanya kweMadokero muRussia kubvira 1991 kwave kuita mari.

Russia, musika mutsva chose wevanhu vanoda kusvika mamiriyoni 150 vanoda zvinhu zvokuMadokero, wakanga wakanyanya kunaka zvokusagona kuva wechokwadi. Zvinhu zvidiki zvakaita setsika nemutemo zvakafuratirwa mukutsvaga purofiti ine hutano. Vezvematongerwo enyika vanga vasina chokwadi chekuita neRussia makore makumi maviri apfuura, asi zvido zvemakambani zvinonyatsoziva zvavanoda. Dambudziko rechipiri nemaitiro eEurope ipfungwa yekuti diplomacy ichagara ichishanda uye kuti matambudziko ese anogona kugadziriswa nekungotaura zvinhu. Dambudziko iri rinonyanya kuoma kana vakurukuri veRussia vane ruzivo uye vane hungwaru vakatarisana nevangwaru vekuEurope vanobuda munhaurirano vachifunga kuti vafambira mberi, asi ivo vakatorerwa uye vanyeperwa.

Uyewo vamiriri ava havadzidzi kubva mukukanganisa kwavo. Munyika dzakawanda, vashandi vehurumende vanozorodzwa makore matatu oga oga kana kupfuura uye vatevedzeri vavo vanodzokorora zvikanganiso zvakafanana. Kusiiwa kweEurope-kuregwa kwehunyanzvi hweRussia kwave nenjodzi mukugona kwayo kubata Moscow zvakanaka. Vatungamiriri veEurope vakaipawo. Vazhinji vanokoka hukama husina kunaka neRussia kune avo vakavatangira 'kusaziva kana kusagona, uye nekuzvikudza vanotenda kuti hutongi hwavo huchasiyana. Asi nekufamba kwenguva vari pachigaro, vanozoona kuti ‘hatisi isu; ndivo'. Asi zvino zvave kunonoka: Hutungamiri hwemutungamiri wenyika kana hutungamiriri hwave kupera, kana hukama hwaderera kusvika pakusadzoka. Vatungamiri veEurope vanozvizorodza ivo pachavo. Putin neshamwari dzake vanogara uye vanomira vakareba.

Dambudziko rekupedzisira uye kuderedzwa kweMH17 kunogona kunge kwakashandura equation. Kuziva kuri kutanga pakati pemabhizinesi eEU anobvumira Russia ruoko rwemahara kupinza kusagadzikana mukudyara nekutengesa. Chibayiro chenguva pfupi chekuchengeteka kwenguva refu chinotanga kuonekwa sechisarudzo chakakomba. Zvave pachena zvakare kuti Russia yave kuisa hupenyu hweWestern Europe mungozi. Kubvisa zviri pamutemo zvidimbu zvevhu kubva kunyika dzakasununguka kungadai kwakafuratirwa, sezvazvaive muna 2008 uye sezvazvaive muna 2014.

Asi kuuraya vagari veEU, kunyangwe nekusaziva, kune hukama hwakananga nehuwandu hwevanhu vanotsamira nevatungamiriri vekuMadokero kuti varambe vari musimba. Kusaita chinhu kwazova kusingagamuchiriki mutsika nezvematongerwe enyika. Saka kurambana kuri kuitika. Iyo Kremlin iri kufara nazvo, parizvino. Kana iri EU, iri kungosaina mapepa ichizengurira, zvichida nekuziva zvinosiririsa kuti yakundikana kana kuti yatengeswa. Geography yeRussia, kuwanda kwevanhu, kumadokero kudonha kweuropi uye zvinodiwa zvehupfumi kumba zvinoratidza kuti inozopedzisira yadzoka kuEurope. Europe ichaigamuchira nemaoko maviri zvakare. Asi kana ichida kudzivirira kudzokorora kuodzwa mwoyo kwemakumi maviri emakore apfuura, inofanira kumirira, zvisinei kuti inotora nguva yakareba sei, kuti mutungamiri wenyika nehurongwa uhu vabve panzvimbo.

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