Nei NATO isingakwanise kuenderera nekuwedzera kusarerekera

NaSteven Keil, mukuru wechirongwa muKune dzimwe nyika uye Chengetedzo Policy Chirongwa kuGerman Marshall Fund yeUnited States muWashington, DC

Matambudziko ari kuramba achienderera mberi ezvekuchengetedza akaunzwa neRussia kunharaunda yeEurope akamanikidza NATO kuzunza ngura kubva mubhokisi rayo rekushandisa uye kupindura izvo zvakanzi neMutevedzeri weMunyori weUnited States, Victoria Nuland, achitaura kuGerman Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Talks, akadana "dambudziko guru kune Chengetedzo yeEurope yatakaona kubva kuhondo dzeBalkan".

Nepo nhaurirano pamusoro peshanduko yeNATO, misheni inoenderera mberi, uye mauto ekufambisa achiwanda kusvika kumusangano weNATO waGunyana muWales, zviito zveRussia zvinopokana zvekubvuma hurumende yeUkraine nepo kupa mari mauto anopikisa hurumende kuri kuramba kuchinetsa mhinduro dzekuMadokero. Kunyangwe nechibvumirano chechangobva kuitika pasuru yezvirango zvichitevera kudzikiswa kweMH17, kunze kunoratidza kusadzikama kwekugadzirisa kwekuMadokero mukusangana nedambudziko zvakananga. Kuti ienderane nemamiriro ezvinhu matsva aya, NATO inofanirwa kuongorora zvakare marongero akatungamira kune yazvino chengetedzo yeEuropean nharaunda.

Izvi zvinofanirwa kusanganisira kusiya kusaziva uye kusanzwisisika kune vanoshuvira nhengo dzeNATO munzvimbo yeSoviet post-Soviet, uye kupa kujekeswa maererano nezvinangwa zveNATO kunharaunda yayo yekumabvazuva kuenda kumberi. Kunyangwe Chisungo chechishanu - icho nhengo dzinofunga kurwisa mumwe sekurwisa vese - inoramba iri mbiru yemubatanidzwa, uye kutendeseka nekuchengetedzeka kweRomania, Poland, neBaltics zvisina mubvunzo, zvimwe zvinhu hazvina kujeka. -cheka.

Kumisikidzwa kwechigarire kwemauto eNATO muBaltics kungangotyora 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act uye zvingangounza mhinduro yakaipa uye pamwe yakasimba kubva kuRussia. Nepo vamwe vachiti hutsinye hweRussia muGeorgia neUkraine pamwe nekumisikidzwa kwechibvumirano cheConventional Armed Forces muEurope kwave kutotyora zvirevo zvegadziriro iyi, kudzoreredzwa kwakaitwa neNATO kunobvisa chero chasara cheMutemo Wekutanga. Nekudaro, tichipihwa maitiro ekutanga eRussia, kumwe kugadzirisa zvakare kunoshandura hwaro hwehukama hweRussia-West kungangove kwakakodzera.

Vashoma vanofungidzira kuti ruzhinji rwenyika dzenhengo dzeNATO dzichanyatso varaidza nhaurirano pakuwedzera, ndoda kupa Hurongwa hwekuita Hunhengo (MAP) kune nyika dzepasi-Soviet, kunyanya Georgia. Tichifunga nezvechokwadi ichi, mutemo wekuwedzera weNATO uchitevera 2008 Bucharest Summit - apo Georgia neUkraine dzakapihwa vimbiso yekutaura yenhengo yeramangwana - yakaratidza kusashanda, uye inoratidzika kunge isina hanya. Kubva ipapo, Russia yakafuratira hutongi hwemarudzi ese ari maviri kuburikidza nekupinda munzvimbo uye nekunetsana pachena.

Kusajeka kwekuzopedzisira kuve nhengo pasina nhanho dzakasimba kana vimbiso kwadzikisira kuvimbika kweNATO mudunhu, uku ichisimbisa nyika dzinodyidzana kutora vimbiso dzekuchengetedza dzekudyidzana kwadzisina. Tichifunga nezvemamiriro ezvinhu anonetsa aya, NATO inofanirwa kunge ichiziva nezveramangwana rayo rekuwedzera kumabvazuva kweEurope uye kusarudza kuvaka mabhiriji chaiwo kunyika idzi, kana kujeka muchinangwa chayo chekubatanidza nekusimbisa miganhu iripo. Kana ikasarudza kuwedzera, NATO inogona kuzvisimbisa munhaurirano dzekuchengetedza mumashure eSoviet nekuita vavakidzani vayo vekumabvazuva kuburikidza nematanho ekongiri ane chinangwa chekubatana.

Izvi zvingada hurongwa hwakanyatsotsanangurwa hwekuzogashira MAP uye kushandirapamwe padhuze pamatanho emarudzi mazhinji uye emativi maviri, kusanganisira kushandirapamwe kwemauto-kumauto kuburikidza nekuita maekisesaizi uye kutora chikamu mumisheni inotevera. Sarudzo dzeNATO dzichangoburwa dzekupa Ukraine pasuru yekubatsira mauto uye kudzosera gonhi rakavhurika reGeorgia rinogona kuratidza kuda kuita izvi.

Kana NATO ikasarudza kubatanidzwa, Mubatanidzwa unofanirwa kutarisa chete tangentially kuita zvinofarirwa neUkraine neGeorgia pazvinhu zvinonyanya kunetsa kana kufarira, uchipedzisa miganhu iripo yekuwedzera, vis-à-vis the Balkan. Izvi zvinofanirwa kusanganisira kupihwa kwenhengo kuMontenegro, kudyidzana kumberi neSerbia neBosnia-Herzegovina, uye kufambisa kwekugadzirisa gakava riripo pamusoro penhengo yeMacedonia. Nzira ipi neipi inofanirawo panguva imwe chete kusanganisira zvikamu zvekudzivisa Moscow kubva kune imwezve hutsinye.

Izvo NATO isingakwanise kuenderera mberi negwaro rekuwedzera kusanzwisisika, izvo zvaunza kusavimbika uye zvakaona kukakavara kuviri kwakavhurika uye kusatariswa kupindirwa neRussia munyika dzakangopihwa zvipikirwa zvisina kujeka zvekuzopedzisira wave nhengo. Zvisinei nekuti NATO inotora nzira ipi, haigone kuramba ichitenda kuti zviito zveRussia pasi paVladimir Putin hazvina kunaka. Mitemo yeRussia pachayo hairatidzi izvi, uye Moscow zvirokwazvo hairatidzi chishuvo chekuva mudiwa anovaka, ane hunyanzvi. Mitemo yeNATO yazvino uye maitiro anoregeredza chokwadi ichi, izvo zvakakonzera mhinduro isina kusimba kune hutsinye hweRussia uye kusaremekedza kwayo zvido zvekuMadokero.

NATO inofanirwa kusarudza kuve kugadzira mabhiriji matsva kune vanodyidzana naye kumabvazuva kweEurope kana kuvaka miganhu, kusimbisa purojekiti uye kuita mabasa asina kupera ari mukati mekusvika kwazvino. Chero nzira inoda kucherechedzwa kuti chimiro chakaomarara chinofanira kutorwa neMoscow. Mhedzisiro ine njodzi yemusangano weWales Summit ndeyekuenderera mberi negwara risingaite zvishoma kubatsira vadyidzani veSoviet mushure mezvichemo zvavo zvakamirira kuve nhengo, vachiregeredza maitiro eRussia ekuzvidzivirira uye zvinangwa kumabvazuva kweEurope.

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