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Mafungiro: Sarudzo dzereferendamu dzeCrimea hadzisi sarudzo zvachose

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12 makore apfuura

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Isu tinoshandisa kusaina kwako kukupa zvirimo munzira dzawakabvumira uye kuvandudza manzwisisiro edu pamusoro pako. Unogona kuzvibvisa chero nguva.

140227-simferopol-crimea-jsw-822a_2d094fb3240074be9bfd28e0d8000d67By Keir Giles, Shamwaridzana Shamwari, Kuchengetedzwa Kwenyika Dzese uye Russia uye Eurasia Chirongwa, Chatham House
Referendamu yakarongwa pamusoro pemamiriro emangwana eCrimea yakashorwa zvakanyanya seisiri pamutemo uye isiriyo. Asi kunyangwe dai zvaive zviri pamutemo, sarudzo mbiri dzakapihwa kune vavhoti veCrimea hazvivapi sarudzo yekusiya kutonga kweRussia.

Referendamu, iyo parizvino yakarongwa muna Kurume 16, inokumbira vavhoti muCrimea kuti vasarudze pakati pekujoinha Russia kana kudzokera kubumbiro reCrimea ra1992 vachiri chikamu cheUkraine. Vamwe vezvenhau vakapa sarudzo yechipiri sekudzoka kumamiriro ezvinhu mauto eRussia asati atora kutonga peninsula; chokwadi hazvina kudaro.

Bumbiro reCrimea ra1992 rakatambirwa panguva yefivha yekutenderera kwemasimba mumashure mekupera kweSoviet Union, uye yakabviswa nguva pfupi yakatevera. Nemashoko ekuti avo vane ndangariro dzakareba vanozonzwa kutonhorera, inoreva Republic of Crimea se 'Soviet state' uye inoitsanangura sechinhu chakazvimirira chinopa Ukraine masimba akadai sezvainoona zvakakodzera. Nemamwe mashoko, kudzoreredzwa kwebumbiro iri kungave nhanho yekuenda kuzvitonga kuzere pasi pekutonga kweRussia. Dai rikagamuchirwa, zviitiko muCrimea zvaizoramba zvichiratidzira kusawirirana kweRussia neGeorgia muna 2008 uye kugadzwa kwemasangano 'akazvimiririra' eAbkhazia neSouth Ossetia.

Vaya vagari vakagutsikana neCrimea yasara chikamu cheUkraine pahwaro humwe chete hwanga huri kwemakore makumi maviri apfuura havana izwi mureferendamu iyi. Hapana sarudzo yechitatu iripo.

Zvikonzero zveUkraine

Vakuru venzvimbo yepro-Russian vakaita kuti zvavanoda zvizivikanwe kune vavhoti, kusanganisira nemushandirapamwe wezvikwangwani zvinopa sarudzo iri nyore pakati peCrimea mbiri: imwe yakafukidzwa nemureza weRussia, imwe newaya ine minzwa uye swastika. Kutyisidzirwa nezvikwata zvepro-Russian zvinozvitsanangura sezvikamu zve'kuzvidzivirira', avo vachange vachitenderera uye vachigona kutungamira nzvimbo dzekuvhotera, kungangoitawo basa rakakosha mukunyengetedza vagari vekuCrimea nzira yekuvhota. Asi, muchokwadi, chero mhedzisiro mureferendamu iyi ingave inogamuchirwa zvakanyanya kuRussia.

Geography inotaura kuti kubatanidzwa kwekutonga kweRussia kweCrimea, ingave sechikamu cheRussia kana kuti yakazvimiririra, ichaunza matambudziko akakomba kuUkraine mune zvese chengetedzo nehupfumi. Kusagadzikana kweUkraine kuenderera mberi kupindira kwemauto eRussia kuchawedzerwa. Isthmus kubva kuCrimea inopa nzvimbo yekuwana kune iyo nyika yeUkraine iyo inogumira uye inodzivirirwa zviri nyore. Asi hukuru-hukuru uye kuenderera mberi kusimbiswa kwemauto eRussia muCrimea, yakasanganiswa nerusununguko rusina kuganhurirwa rwekufamba neBlack Sea Fleet, inopa nzvimbo dzemahombekombe eUkraine kune imwe nzvimbo zvakanyanya panjodzi yemauto eRussia mune ramangwana.

Muchokwadi, Mistral-class helicopter vatakuri vari kupihwa kuRussia neFrance vachave vafambisi vane simba vemhando iyi yekushanda. Pakati peCrimea dambudziko, chikepe chekutanga chakavakwa kuRussia chakatanga miedzo yegungwa musi wa 6 Kurume, nevashandi vayo vekuRussia vatove kudzidziswa muFrance.

Mamwe mauto eRussia muCrimea ari kunyanya kuunzwa mhiri kweKerch Strait, nzira nhete yemvura inopatsanura kumabvazuva kweCrimea kubva kumaodzanyemba kweRussia. Kudzora kwedambudziko iri kwakakosha zvikuru, uye yanga iri nyaya yemakakatanwa apfuura pakati penyika mbiri idzi. Asi nemahombekombe ose ari mumaoko eRussia, Gungwa reAzov rinova gungwa reRussia. Mune mamwe mazwi, Russia ikozvino ine hutongi hwakazara hwekusvika kwegungwa kune ese madoko ekumabvazuva kweUkraine, kusanganisira chiteshi chikuru cheMariupol. Izvi zvinopa Russia imwezve hupfumi uye humwe hukuru pamusoro pemamiriro ekumabvazuva kwenyika, uye inotsigira chinangwa cheRussia cheUkraine kusadzoreka pasina mvumo yeRussia uye kubatana.

mataridzikiro

Zviremera zveCrimea pro-Russian vari mushishi kumanikidza referendamu. Zuva iri rakatounzwa kaviri, uye nyambo iri kutenderera pari zvino inoti 'zuva richangoburwa referendamu richangoziviswa - raive nezuro'. Ichi chikamu cheRussia dhiraivha kuchengetedza danho, chengetedza Madokero kumashure uye kuratidza nyika ne fait accompli kusati kwaitwa chero chinhu chakakosha kana chinodzivirira chinogona kuiswa panzvimbo.

Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, kurambwa kwereferendamu neUS nedzimwe nyika dzekumadokero (kunyangwe zvisiri nenyanzvi dzese dzekumadokero) zvinosimbisa. Parizvino, izvi zvinoderedza kutya kuti mhedzisiro inogona kushandiswa sechikonzero chekuchengetedza chiso chekugamuchira kutonga kweRussia kweCrimea, uye zvakare kupa mubayiro kushandiswa kweuto remauto reRussia kurwisa muvakidzani.

Asi mubvunzo wekutendeseka kwezviito zveRussia, kunyange zvakakosha, hazvina simba pane chokwadi chekutonga kweRussia kweCrimea. Mukuwedzera, zvinetso zvemazuva ano zvinogona kukundwa nyore nyore nezviitiko. Mamiriro ezvinhu muCrimea anoramba asina kusimba zvakanyanya. Nekuda kwekuzvibata kwakanyanya uye kushivirira kwevakakomberedzwa vemauto eUkraine vakatarisana nekuvharirwa kwemauto eRussia uye kudzokororwa kurwiswa nemapoka anotsigirwa neRussia, hapana pfuti yati yapfurwa nemauto eUkraine. Vanoziva kuti kana izvi zvingoitika, kutsiva kweRussia kuchave kwakakurumidza, kunotyisa uye nehutsinye.

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