Copernicus: Kupisa kwakanyanya kwepasi rose kwegungwa muna Chikunguru sezvo mamiriro ekunze anopisa zvikuru uye akaoma achikonzera moto wemusango muEurope

Muna Chikunguru 2026, mamiriro ekunze anopisa uye akaoma kwenguva refu kumadokero kweEurope akakonzera kupararira nekuwedzera kwe moto wesango wakanyanyaMwedzi uyu wakaonawo tembiricha yepamusoro yegungwa (SST) yati yamboonekwa muna Chikunguru mumakungwa ari kunze kwenzvimbo dzine mvura yakawanda, zvichikonzerwa nekukura kwemamiriro eEl Niño muPacific yepakati, sezvakataurwa neCopernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), zvakatangwa neEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Muna Chikunguru makaonekwa tembiricha dzakanyanya kukwira mumwedzi uyu munzvimbo huru yePacific inopisa, nzvimbo ine mamiriro eEl Niño uye inofungidzirwa kuti ichawedzera kusimba mumwedzi iri kuuya. MuEurope yese, SST dzakakwira zvakanyanya muAtlantic nekumadokero kweMediterranean dzakabatana nekupisa kwakanyanya kwegungwa, zvichikanganisa nharaunda dzemahombekombe nenharaunda dzezvakatipoteredza.

Mufananidzo 2. Tembiricha yegungwa yezuva nezuva (°C) yakaenzana pamusoro pegungwa repasi rose (60°S–60°N) mugore ra2023 (yero), 2024 (orenji), 2025 (tsvuku) uye 2026 (tsvuku yakasviba). Mamwe makore ese ari pakati pa1979 na2022 anoratidzwa nemitsara yegrey. Avhareji yezuva nezuva yenguva yekutarisa ya1991–2020 inoratidzwa nemutsetse wegrey wakachekwa.

Kwakabva data: ERA5. Chikwereti: C3S/ECMWF.

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Western Europe yakaona nguva inopisa zvikuru muna Chikumi-Chikunguru kupfuura dzimwe nguva dzose uye muna Chikunguru yakaona kupisa kwechitatu nekwechina kubva muna Chivabvu, zvichiratidza kupisa kwakanyanya muzhizha rino. Nzvimbo zhinji dzakaonawo kuoma kwakapararira kwakaonekwa muna Chivabvu naChikunguru kuchiramba kuripo uye kuchikwira, nemvura shoma uye/kana hunyoro hwevhu hwakataurwa kuFrance, Spain, zvikamu zveGermany neUK. Munzvimbo dzakaoma, kuyerera kwenzizi kwaive kwakaderera zvakanyanya pane avhareji kana kuti kwakaderera zvakanyanya, neSeine, Rhine neDanube zvakanyanya kukanganiswa, zvichikanganisa kuwanikwa kwemvura, kudiridza uye kugadzirwa kwesimba munyika dzinoverengeka.

(Kuruboshwe) Zvisina kujairika uye kunyanyisa kwehunyoro hwevhu hwepamusoro muna Chikunguru 2026. Mapoka "akanyanya kuoma" uye "anonyorova zvakanyanya" anoratidza nzvimbo dzaive nehunyoro hwevhu hwakaderera kana kuti hwakanyanya kukwira muna Chikunguru muna 1979-2026. Mamwe mapoka anotsanangura kuti hunyoro hwevhu hwakaenzaniswa sei nekugoverwa kwaChikunguru munguva yekutarisa ya1991-2020. Data: ERA5-Land.

(Kurudyi) Zvisina kujairika uye kunyanyisa pakuyerera kwerwizi pamwedzi muna Chikunguru 2026. Mapoka e "akaderera" uye "akakwirira" anoratidza nzvimbo uko kuyerera kwerwizi kwaive kwakaderera kana kuti kwakakwirira muna Chikunguru muna 1992-2026. Mamwe mapoka anotsanangura kuti kuyerera kwerwizi kunoenzaniswa sei nekugoverwa kwaChikunguru munguva yekutarisa ya1992-2020. Nzizi chete dzine nzvimbo dzekudonhedza mvura dzinopfuura 1000 km² zvinoratidzwa.

Kwakabva data: EFAS. Chikwereti: CEMS/C3S/ECMWF.

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Pasi rose, mwedzi uyu waive mwedzi wechipiri waChikunguru wakanyanya kupisa kupfuura mimwe yose yakanyorwa, neavhareji yekupisa kwemhepo pamusoro pevhu ye1.47°C kupfuura zvaifungidzirwa kuti zvaivepo kare kare (avhareji ye1850-1900).

Samantha Burgess, Mutungamiriri weStrategic for Climate kuECMWF, akati: "Chikunguru 2026 yaive mwedzi wechitatu wakatevedzana wekupisa kwakanyanya kumadokero kweEurope, zvichiunza tembiricha yakabatana yaChikumi naChikunguru kune rekodhi itsva yedunhu iri. Masisitimu ane kumanikidzwa kwakanyanya anogara achibata kupisa kumadokero kweEurope, tembiricha dzakanyanyisa dzakawedzerawo kusanaya kwemvura kwakapararira. Ivhu parinooma, rinorasikirwa nekugona kwaro kupa kutonhora kwechisikigo, zvichiita kuti kupisa kuungane zviri nyore. Uyu muenzaniso wakajeka wekuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kuwedzera sei kupisa kwakanyanya, kupisa nekusanaya kwemvura zvichiwedzera kusimbisana."

Laurence Rouil, Mutungamiriri weCopernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) kuECMWF, akawedzera kuti:"Mwedzi wapera wakaona moto wemusango wakakura kwazvo kumadokero kweEurope, maererano nekupiswa kwenzvimbo uye utsi hunobva mumhepo. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kuri kuwedzera kuunza mhando dzemamiriro ekunze anopisa uye akaoma anofarira moto wemusango mukuru, wakanyanya kuchamhembe kweEurope ukuwo mwaka wemoto uchiwedzera kuchamhembe. Moto mukuru unoburitsa utsi hwakawanda uye unouisa mumhepo, zvichireva kuti unogona kufamba kure uye kukanganisa mhando yemhepo kwete munharaunda chete, asi munzvimbo yakakura. Nyika dzine moto wemusango mushoma dzinogona kunge dzichinyanya kukanganiswa nekufambiswa kweutsi kure, kunyangwe dziri kure nezviuru zvemakiromita."

Chikunguru 2026 - Zvinonyanya kukosha pakupisa kwemhepo pamusoro pegungwa

Tembiricha yemhepo yepasi rose

• Chikunguru 2026 yaive mwedzi wechipiri waChikunguru unopisa zvakanyanya pasi rose muERA5 dataset, wakabatana naChikunguru 2024 uye uri shure kwerekodhi yakatarwa munaChikunguru 2023.
• Avhareji yekupisa kwemhepo pamusoro pemwedzi uyu yaive 16.90°C, 0.67°C pamusoro peavhareji ya1991-2020 yaChikunguru uye 1.47°C pamusoro peavhareji inofungidzirwa isati yasvika nguva yekushanda kwemaindasitiri 1850-1900.

Kupisa kwemhepo pamusoro peEurope

• Avhareji yekupisa pamusoro penyika yeEurope muna Chikunguru 2026 yaive yepamusoro-soro yegumi neimwe mumwedzi uyu, pa20.49°C, 0.66°C pamusoro peavhareji yemwedzi wa1991-2020.
• Kuyera uku kwakaderera kunogona kutsanangurwa nekusiyana kukuru pakati pemamiriro ekunze nekunze kwemamiriro ekunze ekunze nekunze kwekumadokero. Kupisa kwaive kwakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura avhareji kumadokero kweEurope (kunyanya muFrance, Spain, England neIreland) asi kwakaderera pane avhareji munzvimbo zhinji dzekumabvazuva kweEurope neScandinavia.
• Kumadokero kweEurope kwakasangana nekupisa kwechitatu nekwechina kubva muna Chivabvu. Kunyangwe izvi zvaive zvishoma pane kupisa kwakaitwa muna Chikumi, kutevedzana kwemasaisai ekupisa kubva muna Chivabvu kuchiri kwakasiyana munharaunda iyi.
• Avhareji yekupisa kubva muna Chikumi kusvika Chikunguru kumadokero kweEurope yaive yepamusoro-soro pane dzimwe nguva dzakamboitika, pa21.62°C kana 2.79°C pamusoro peavhareji, ichipfuura rekodhi yapfuura kubva muna 2022 uye ichiratidza kugara kwenguva refu kwekupisa kubvira pakutanga kwezhizha.

Kupisa kwegungwa (SSTs)

• Avhareji yeSST yegungwa riri kunze kwepolar (60°S–60°N) muna Chikunguru 2026 yaive yepamusoro-soro mumwedzi uyu, pa20.96°C, ichipfuura rekodhi yapfuura yaChikunguru ye20.89°C, iyo yakaiswa muna 2023.
• MaSST akaramba ari padanho repamusoro munzvimbo huru yePacific, nzvimbo iyo mamiriro eEl Niño aripo parizvino anotarisirwa kuwedzera kusimba mumwedzi iri kuuya.
• MuEurope yese, SST dzakasvika pakakwirira zvikuru muna Chikunguru pamhenderekedzo yeAtlantic nekumadokero kweMediterranean, zvichikonzerwa nemamiriro ekunze akasimba kana kuti akaipisisa ekupisa kwegungwa.

Chikunguru 2026 - Zvinhu zvinonyanya kukosha pakuchinja kwemvura

Europe: Nzvimbo dzine mamiriro akaoma kupfuura avhareji

• Muna Chikunguru 2026, mamiriro ekunze akaoma kupfuura avhareji akaonekwa muna Chikumi uye chikamu chayo muna Chivabvu akaramba achiwedzera munzvimbo zhinji dzekumadokero kweEurope nenzvimbo huru dzepakati peEurope, kunyanya munzvimbo dzeIberian Peninsula, France, Germany, Austria, neHungary. UK, Ireland, chikamu cheIceland nenzvimbo yeBenelux (Belgium, Netherlands neLuxembourg) dzakaonawo mamiriro ekunze akaoma zvikuru muna Chikunguru. Masangano enyika akataura kuti mvura yakawandisa uye/kana hunyoro hwevhu hwakaderera zvakanyanya muFrance, Spain, nzvimbo dzeGermany neUK.
• Mwero wehunyoro hwevhu pamusoro penyika kumadokero kweEurope muna Chikunguru 2026 wakaderera zvakanyanya pane wemuna Chikunguru 2022, zhizha rapfuura rine kusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya kumadokero kweEurope.
• Kuoma kwemvura kwakabatana nemamiriro ekupisa kwakapararira munzvimbo zhinji dzekumadokero kweEurope uye kwaibatsira zvikuru pakuita moto wesango kumadokero kweEurope, kana tichitarisa nzvimbo dzakapiswa uye utsi hunobva mumhepo.  
• Dzimwe nzvimbo dzakaoma kupfuura avhareji dzaisanganisira mativi ekumaodzanyemba kweScandinavia nenzvimbo yakakura kumabvazuva kweGungwa reCaspian.
• Kuyerera kwenzizi kwaive kwakaderera zvakanyanya pane avhareji, uye mune dzimwe nzvimbo kwakaderera zvakanyanya, munzvimbo dzakawanda dzisina mvura, Seine, Rhine neDanube zvakanyanya kukanganiswa. Kuyerera kwakaderera kwakawedzera kumanikidzwa pakuwanikwa kwemvura nekudiridza, nharaunda dzemumvura, kutakurwa kwenzizi uye kugadzirwa kwesimba munyika dzinoverengeka.

Europe: Nzvimbo dzine mvura inonaya kupfuura avhareji

• Kusiyana neizvi, mamiriro emvura akawandisa kupfuura avhareji akanyorwa muBaltic States neFinland, mukati meTürkiye, Greece, kumabvazuva kweUkraine nenzvimbo huru dzekumadokero kweRussia, pamwe nemafashamo emunharaunda pamwe nekukuvara kwakabatana nawo.
• Kuyerera kwerwizi rwaipfuura avhareji kwaive kushoma uye kwaiitika munzvimbo dzakapararira dzekuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva nekumaodzanyemba kweEurope.

Nzvimbo dziri kunze kweEurope

• Kunze kweEurope, mativi ekuchamhembe kweCanada, pakati peUSA, Maghreb, chikamu cheHorn of Africa, Siberia, kumaodzanyemba-pakati peAsia, mativi emukati meChina, mativi eArgentina, Uruguay neBolivia aive akaoma kupfuura avhareji.
• Zvikamu zvekumabvazuva kweUSA nekuchamhembe kweMexico, Alaska neCanada, kumabvazuva kweRussia, Afghanistan, kuchamhembe kweIndia, kumabvazuva kweChina neJapan, Chile nekumaodzanyemba kweBrazil kwaive nemvura yakawanda kupfuura avhareji, uye mafashamo akashumwa, pakati pemamwe matunhu, muUSA, Chile, Brazil, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, neTaiwan.

Chikunguru 2026 - Zviitiko zvinoshamisa zvechando chegungwa

• Muna Chikunguru 2026, huwandu hwechando chegungwa reArctic hwakava hwechitanhatu hwakaderera mumwedzi uyu, nechando chegungwa chakanyanya kuderera mugungwa reBarents Sea kuchamhembe kwakakomberedza Svalbard naFranz Josef Land.
• Kuwanda kwechando mugungwa reAntarctic kwaive panzvimbo yechishanu yakaderera muna Chikunguru, nechando chiri pasi peavhareji mumakungwa mazhinji kunze kweGungwa reAmundsen.

Mashoko Omuzasi

* Chikunguru 2026 chaive chakatonhora zvishoma pane Chikunguru 2024, ne 0.01°C chete. Zvichienderana nemusiyano mudiki uyu, mwedzi miviri iyi inoonekwa semwedzi waChikunguru unopisa kupfuura mimwe yose yakanyorwa.

Ruzivo rwakawanda nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze muna Chikunguru 2026 uye shanduko dzemamiriro ekunze dzemwedzi yapfuura pamwe nemifananidzo ine resolution yepamusoro inogona kudhawunirodhwa pano.

Mamwe malink anobatsira:

• Mhinduro kumibvunzo inowanzo bvunzwa maererano nekutarisa tembiricha inogona kuwanikwa pano.
• Tevera pedyo-chaiyo-nguva data yepasirese paClimate Pulse pano.
• Zvimwe pamusoro pemaitiro uye fungidziro paClimate Atlas pano.
• Svika makiyi dataset zviri nyore nechinhu chitsva ERA Explorer App pano.
• Tevedzerai zuva nezuva kuburitswa kwemoto wemusango pasi rose, kusimba kwemoto uye utsi munzvimbo dzese pano.

Ruzivo nezve datasets dzeC3S uye kuti dzinounganidzwa sei:

Mepu nedata retembiricha nehydrological zvinobva kuECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service's ERA5 neERA5–Land (hunyoro hwevhu hwepamusoro).

Zvakawanikwa pamusoro pekupisa kwepasi rose kwegungwa (SSTs) zvakaratidzwa pano zvakavakirwa padata reSST kubva kuERA5 yakaenzana pamusoro penzvimbo ye60°S–60°N. Cherechedza kuti ERA5 SSTs ifungidziro yekupisa kwegungwa pakadzika kweinenge 10m (inozivikanwa sekupisa kwehwaro). Mhedzisiro yacho inogona kusiyana nezvimwe zvigadzirwa zveSST zvinopa fungidziro yekupisa pakadzika kwakasiyana.

Mamepu echando chegungwa nedata zvinobva musanganiswa weruzivo kubva kuERA5, pamwe nekubva kuEUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v3.0.

Avhareji yenzvimbo dzedunhu yakataurwa pano ndeiyi inotevera miganho ye longitude/latitude: Globe, 180° W–180° E, 90° S–90° N, pamusoro penyika negungwa.

Europe, 25° W–40° E, 34° N–72° N, pamusoro penyika chete.

Ruzivo rwekuenzanisa kuyerera kwerwizi rwunoverengwa neEuropean Flood Awareness System (EFAS) sechikamu che Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).

Mamwe ruzivo nezve data inogona kuwanikwa pano.

Ruzivo rwemarekodhi enyika nezvinokonzeresa:

Ruzivo rwemarekodhi enyika nezvinokonzeresa zvinobva pamishumo yenyika nedzedunhu. Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo, ona tembiricha uye hydrological C3S mamiriro ekunze kwemwedzi.

C3S yakatevedzera kurudziro yeWorld Meteorological Organisation (WMO) yekushandisa nguva yemakore makumi matatu yadarika pakuverenga avhareji yemamiriro ekunze uye yakachinja kuita nguva yekutarisa kubva 1991-2020 yeC3S Climate Bulletins yayo inofukidza Ndira 2021 zvichienda mberi.

Mamwe mashoko pamusoro penguva yereferensi inoshandiswa anogona kuwanikwa pano.

Nezve Copernicus uye ECMWF

Copernicus chikamu chekuongorora Nyika muchirongwa cheEuropean Union cheMuchadenga, chinotarisa pasi redu nenzvimbo yaro kuti zvibatsire vagari vemuEurope vese. Chirongwa ichi chinotungamirwa uye chinotungamirirwa neEuropean Commission uye chinoitwa pamwe chete neNhengo dzeNyika nemasangano eEurope. 

European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) isangano rekutsvagisa uye ibasa rekushanda 24/7, richigadzira kufanotaura kwenhamba yemamiriro ekunze uye imwe data yeNhengo yedu neNyika Dzinoshanda pamwe nenharaunda yakakura. Inoshanda yepasirose-yepamusoro-soro nzvimbo yekufembera mamiriro ekunze uye inobata imwe yeakakura meteorological data dura. 

ECMWF inyanzvi huru muCopernicus, chikamu cheEarth Observation cheEuropean Union's Space programme, nekushandisa ruzivo rwakavimbika pamusoro pekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze (Copernicus Climate Change Service), kuumbwa kwemhepo (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service), uye kupa ruzivo pamusoro pemafashamo nenjodzi yemoto (Copernicus Emergency Management Service). Pamwe chete neESA neEUMETSAT, ECMWF inopawo chirongwa cheEU cheDestination Earth, icho chiri kugadzira mapatya edhijitari ePasi.

Mamwe mashoko pamusoro paCopernicus: www.copernicus.eu

Webhusaiti yeECMWF inowanikwa pa https://www.ecmwf.int/

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