Kutendeuka kwakapinza kwekurudyi: Kufembera kwesarudzo dzeParamende dzeEuropean dza2024

 Kuvhota kutsva uye rondedzero inotsigirwa yenhamba inofanotaura 'yakapinza kurudyi' musarudzo dziri kuuya dzeParamende yeEuropean - neboka reIdentity and Democracy (ID) ramapato ari kure-kurudyi uye European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) inotarisirwa kuwana budiriro huru.

●        Ongororo inoratidza kuti mapato e "anti-European" ane kodzero achatungamira sarudzo munyika dzinosvika pfumbamwe dziri nhengo dzeEU vouya pechipiri kana chechitatu mune dzimwe nyika pfumbamwe mumubatanidzwa - chiitiko chinogona kuona mubatanidzwa wemapiro ekurudyi weChristian. maDemocrats, Conservatives, uye MEPs dzekurudyi dzinobuda nevazhinji paParamende yeEuropean kekutanga.

●        Zvakabuda zvinoratidza kuti mapoka maviri makuru ezvematongerwo enyika - European People's Party (EPP) neProgressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) - achaona humiriri hwavo huchiwedzera. Zvakadaro, EPP ndiyo icharamba iri mubatanidzwa mukuru muparamende iri kutevera, ichichengetedza masimba ekutara hurongwa, uye iine simba pamusoro pesarudzo yemutungamiri wekomisheni anotevera.

●        Vanyori-vanyori Simon Hix naKevin Cunningham vanotenda kuti shanduko iyi inofanirwa kushanda se "kumuka-kufona" kune vanogadzira mitemo, zvichipihwa kutyisidzira kwazvinopa kune zvisungo zveEU zvazvino - zvinosanganisira tsigiro yeUkraine neEuropean Green Deal.

Mapato anopikisa European 'populist' ari mugwara rekubuda sevakakunda musarudzo dzemuEurope dziri kuuya, paine fungidziro inoratidza kuti vachatungamira sarudzo munyika dzinosanganisira Austria, France, nePoland, voita zvine simba kuGermany, Spain, Portugal. neSweden muna Chikumi 2024. Kuderera kunotarisirwa kuderera kwerutsigiro rwemapato ezvematongerwo enyika, pamwe nekuwanda kwemapato anonyanyisa uye madiki, kungangounza kutyisidzira kukuru kumbiru dzakakosha dzeEuropean agenda, kusanganisira European Green Deal, yakaramba ichitsigirwa. yeUkraine, uye ramangwana rekuwedzera kweEU, maererano neshumo idzva rakaburitswa neEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Chidzidzo chitsva cheECFR'Kutendeuka kwakapinza kurudyi: Kufembera kwesarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean 2024 ', inotsigirwa nesarudzo ichangobva kuitika kubva kunhengo dzese makumi maviri nenomwe dzeEU uye yakaumbwa nenhamba yemaitiro emapato enyika musarudzo dzakapfuura dzeParamende yeEuropean, kusanganisira mavhoti a27, 2009 uye 2014. Zvichienderana nemuenzaniso uyu, vanyori, vanosanganisira vanotungamira masayendisiti ezvematongerwo enyika nevavhoti, Simon Hix naDr Kevin Cunningham, vanotarisira mapoka maviri makuru ezvematongerwo enyika muParamende yeEuropean - European People's Party (EPP) neSocialists and Democrats (S&D) - vacha enderera mberi negwara rezvigaro zvekubuda ropa, semusarudzo mbiri dzapfuura. Vanoronga kuti centrist Renew Europe (RE) uye green coalition Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) icharasikirwawo nezvigaro; nepo Kuruboshwe uye kurudyi rwepopulist, kusanganisira European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) neIdentity and Democracy (ID), vachabuda sevakunda vakuru musarudzo, vaine mukana chaiwo wekupinda mumubatanidzwa weruzhinji kekutanga. .

Kunyange zvazvo EPP inotarisirwa kuramba iri boka guru redare reparamende, kuchengetedza simba rekugadzirisa zvirongwa, uye kuva nekutaura pamusoro pesarudzo yeMutungamiri weKomisheni inotevera, Hix naCunningham vanotarisira kuti manzwi evanhu vakawanda, kunyanya kubva mukodzero huru, achave akanyanya kutaurwa. uye inobatanidzwa mukuita zvisarudzo kupfuura chero nguva kubva apo Paramende yeEurope yakatanga kusarudzwa zvakananga muna 1979. Manzwi ari kure-kurudyi achanyanya kutaurwa muNhengo dzinokosha dzakavamba, kusanganisira Italy, uko Fratelli d'Italia inotarisirwa kuvandudza zvigaro zvavo. kusvika pakakwirira inobvira ye27 MEPs; muFrance, uko bato reRenaissance raEmmanuel Macron rinogona kusiya nzvimbo yakakosha kuLe Pen's National Rally, iyo yekupedzisira ichiwana huwandu hwe25 MEPs; muAustria uko bato reFreedom Party (FPÖ) rakaiswa zvakapetwa kaviri nhamba yaro yeMEPs kubva pa3 kusvika pa6, mwedzi mishoma pamberi pesarudzo dzakakosha dzenyika; uye, kuGermany, iyo iri kure-kurudyi Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) inofungidzirwa kuti ingada kupeta kaviri kumiririrwa kwayo, zvichikwanisa kusvika kuhuwandu hwezvigaro gumi nepfumbamwe muhemicycle. Uku kusimba hakungoshandure hurukuro yezvematongerwo enyika muEU, pamberi pekudzoka kwaDonald Trump kuWhite House gare gare gore rino, inogona zvakare kuve nesimba, uye inogona kushanda semutungamiri wesarudzo dzenyika mukutungamira. inhengo dzenhengo, kusanganisira Austria, Germany, neFrance, munguva iri kuuya. 

Zvitsva zvakawanikwa kubva kuHix neCunningham kudzidza zvinosanganisira:

* Mapato anopikisa European populist achatungamira sarudzo munyika pfumbamwe dziri nhengo dzeEU vouya pechipiri kana chechitatu mune dzimwe nyika pfumbamwe. Chirevo ichi chinoti mapato epopulist ane midzi euroscepticism achabuda semapato anotungamira muAustria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, neSlovakia, uye anowana yechipiri kana yechitatu nzvimbo inopera muBulgaria, Estonia, Finland. , Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, neSweden. Boka riri kure-kurudyi, ID, rinotarisirwa kuwana zvigaro zvinopfuura makumi matatu uye, nezvigaro makumi mapfumbamwe nemasere, uye kuve mauto echitatu ezvematongerwo enyika eparamende iri kuuya.

* Chiyero chekuruboshwe-kurudyi muParamende yeEuropean chichachinja zvakanyanya kuenda kurudyi. ECFR's statistical modelling inoratidza kuti mubatanidzwa wepakati-kuruboshwe uripo - weS&D, G/EFA, neKuruboshwe - uchaona chikamu chavo chevhoti nekumiririrwa kwavo kuchidonha zvakanyanya, ne33% yehuwandu, zvichienzaniswa ne36% iripo. Kusiyana neizvi, ukuru hwemabatanidzwa ari kurudyi akaiswa kuti awedzere. Mubatanidzwa mukuru wepakati-kurudyi - weEPP, RE, neECR - ungangorasikirwa nezvimwe zvigaro, uchibata 48% pachinzvimbo che49%. Zvisinei, "populist right coalition" - inoumbwa neEPP, ECR, uye ID - ichawedzera chikamu chavo chezvigaro kubva pa43% kusvika ku49%.

* Mubatanidzwa unosanganisira "kodzero yeruzhinji" unogona kubuda neruzhinji kekutanga. Mubatanidzwa weChristian democrats, conservatives, uye radical right MEPs vachakwikwidza, kekutanga, kune ruzhinji muParamende yeEurope. Basa raFidesz muHungary (iyo yatinotarisira kuhwina zvigaro gumi nemana) ichave yakasimba, nekuti kana ikafunga kujoina ECR pane kugara sebato risingabatanidzwe, ECR haigone kungopfuura RE uye ID uye kuve yechitatu pakukura. boka, asi inogona, pamwe chete neID, kusvika ingangoita 14% yeMEPs uye kuva nezvigaro zvakawanda kupfuura EPP kana S&D kekutanga.

*Nekuda kweizvozvo, ingangoita hafu yezvigaro zvakabatwa neMEPs zvaizowira kunze kwe "super grand coalition" yemapoka ecentrist EPP, S&D neRenew Europe (RE). Zvigaro zvakabatwa nevekupedzisira zvichadzikira kubva pa60% kusvika pa54%. Kudonha kwevamiriri uku kunogona kureva kuti mubatanidzwa uchange usisina zvigaro zvakakwana zvekuti veruzhinji vachakunda pamavhoti akakosha.

* Pane mwero wakati wokusava nechokwadi pamusoro pemapoka ezvamatongerwe enyika achabatanidzwa pakupedzisira. Pakazara, mapato makumi maviri nemasere asina kurongeka anogona kuhwina zvigaro zvinopfuura zana nemakumi maviri muna Chikumi, uye zvakadaro, The Five Star Movement muItaly (inofanorongerwa kuhwina zvigaro gumi nenhatu) inogona kusarudza kujoina G/EFA kana The Left, iyo yerudyi inogadzirirwa kubatsira. zvakanyanya kubva mukugovaniswa kwemapato asina kurerekera. Fratelli D'Italia's 28's 120 prospected zvigaro uye Fidesz' 13 zvigaro zvinofungidzirwa zvichave zvine hungwaru pakusarudza ruzhinji rusati rwamboonekwa rwekodzero, kana yakabatana neECR. Zvichakadaro bato reConfederation muPoland neRumutsiridzo muBulgaria rinogona kuwedzera kusimbaradza divi rekurudyi remusangano nemamwe zvigaro zve27, kana ikasarudza kujoina ECR.

* Mhedzisiro yacho inogona kuve nemhedzisiro yakakosha kune EU's policy agenda uye kutungamira kweramangwana mutemo - kusanganisira European Green Deal. Zvinonyanya kukosha zvinogona kunge zvine chekuita nemutemo wezvakatipoteredza. Muparamende yazvino, mubatanidzwa wepakati-kuruboshwe (weS&D, RE, G/EFA, uye Kuruboshwe) vanga vachikunda panhau dzemitemo yezvemamiriro ekunze, asi mazhinji emavhoti aya akahwinwa nemadiki madiki. Nechinjo huru kuenda kurudyi, zvingangoita kuti mubatanidzwa we 'anti-climate policy action' uchatonga kupfuura June 2024. Izvi zvingakanganisa zvakanyanya EU's Green Deal framework uye kutorwa nekutevedzwa kwemitemo yakafanana kusangana net zero yeEU. zvinangwa.

* Mhedzisiro yacho inogonawo kuve nezvainoreva pakuedza kweEU kutevedzera mutemo. Muparamende pari zvino mave neruzhinji rwakamanikana mukutemera EU zvirango, zvinosanganisira kunyima bhajeti remari, apo nyika dzenhengo dzinonzi dziri kudzokera kumashure - kunyanya munyaya dzeHungary nePoland. Asi mushure meChikumi 2024 zvingangove zvakaoma kune vepakati nepakati-kuruboshwe MEPs (muRE, S&D, G/EFA, Kuruboshwe, uye zvikamu zveEPP) kuti vabate mutsetse vachipokana nekuenderera mberi kwekukukurwa kwedemocracy, kutonga. zvemutemo, uye rusununguko rwevanhu muHungary uye chero imwe nyika yenhengo ingangonanga ikoko.

* Pane mukana wakasimba wekumiririra bato reRussia muparamende iri kuuya. Bato repro-Russian Revival, kubva kuBulgaria, rinofungidzirwa kuti richakunda zvigaro zvitatu musarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean, izvo zvaizoita kuti ipinde muParamende yeEuropean kekutanga, ichiwana chiremera chemasangano pamberi pesarudzo dzenyika dzeBulgaria dzinotevera, nekuda kwekuitwa. Chikumi 9, 2024. Izvi zvaizotevera sarudzo shanu dzeparamende munyika kubva kutanga kwa2021, uye kukurumidza kukurumidza kwevaunganidzi ve "anti-system", avo vakabatsira mapato anosanganisira Rumutsiriro.

* Mhedzisiro muEurope inogona kushanda sefanotungamira kune mamwe mavhoti munhengo dzenhengo, kusanganisira Austria, Germany, neFrance. KuAustria, chero rutsigiro rweFPÖ runogona kusvika musarudzo dzenyika, idzo dzakatarisirwa kuitwa muna Gumiguru 2024, ukuwo fungidziro yeAfD yeGermany inogona kuumba mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika nerondedzero pamberi pesarudzo dzeparamende muna 2025. Zvichakadaro, France. iri panguva yakakosha. Mukati me70% yekusatenderwa kwehurumende yaEmmanuel Macron uye rutsigiro ruchikwira rwebato rekurudyi raMarine Le Pen, mutungamiri weFrance nguva pfupi yadarika akagadziridza kabhineti yake, zvichiratidza kusimuka kwakananga kurudyi. Iri danho rakasarudzika, pamwe nemhedzisiro yesarudzo dzaJune-European, zvinogona kumisa toni yesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika muna 2027.

Mukutaura kwavo kwekupedzisira, Hix naCunningham vanoyambira kuti kuwedzera kuri kuuya kwesimba rebapiro rekurudyi nekumiririra muParamende yeEuropean kunofanirwa kushanda se "kumuka" kune vanoita zvemitemo veEurope nezve izvo zviri mungozi kuEU. Vanopokana kuti zvinorehwa nesarudzo dzaChikumi zvinogona kusvika kure, kubva pazvivharo pamitemo inodiwa kuti iite chikamu chinotevera cheGreen Deal, kusvika kune yakaoma mutsara pane dzimwe nzvimbo dzehutongi hweEU, kusanganisira kutama, kuwedzera, uye kutsigirwa kweUkraine kupfuura. June 2024. Panewo njodzi, pamwe nemukana wekuti Donald Trump adzokere kuWhite House, kuti Europe inogona kuva neUnited States inobatanidzwa pasi rose kuvimba nayo. Izvi, pamwe chete nemubatanidzwa wakanangana nekodzero uye wakanangana nemukati muParamende yeEuropean, zvinogona kuwedzera fungidziro yevanopesana nekugadzwa uye mapato eEurosceptic kuramba kudyidzana kwakarongwa uye kuwanda kwekudyidzana kwenyika dzakawanda kudzivirira zvido nehunhu hweEurope.

Kuti vadzivise kana kudzikisira kukanganiswa kwekuchinja kwakadaro kuenda kune zvematongerwo enyika, Hix naCunningham vanodana vanogadzira mitemo kuti vaongorore mafambiro ari kufambisa maitiro ekuvhota azvino uye, vogadzira nganonyorwa dzinotaura nezvekudikanwa kweEurope yepasi rose. mamiriro ekunze ezvematongerwo enyika anhasi ane ngozi uye ari kuwedzera kuva nengozi.

Vachitaura nezvechidzidzo chitsva ichi, Muzvinafundo Simon Hix, munyori pamwe chete, uye Stein Rokkan sachigaro wezvematongerwo enyika ekufananidza paEuropean University Institute muFlorence, vakati:

"Kutarisana nemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika anomutsa, izvo zvinogona kusvika pakakwirira nekudzoka kwaDonald Trump semutungamiri weAmerica gare gare gore rino, mapato ezvematongerwo enyika anofanirwa kumuka uye kutora matanho akajeka ezvido zvevavhoti, vachiziva kukosha kwesarudzo. yakawanda inopindira uye ine simba yeEurope pasi rose.

Sarudzo dzaChikumi, dzeavo vanoda kuona Europe yepasi rose, dzinofanirwa kunge dziri dzekuchengetedza nekusimudzira chinzvimbo cheEU. Mishandirapamwe yavo inofanira kupa vagari chikonzero chetariro. Vanofanira kutaura kune zvakanakira multilateralism. Uye vanofanirwa kujekesa, pazvinhu zvakakosha zvine chekuita nedemocracy uye kutonga kwemutemo, kuti ivo, uye kwete avo vari kumapato ezvematongerwo enyika, vanoiswa zvakanyanya kuchengetedza kodzero dzakakosha dzeEurope. "

Co-munyori, muongorori uye nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika, Dr Kevin Cunningham, akawedzera:

"Zvakawanikwa zvechidzidzo chedu chitsva zvinoratidza kuti kuumbwa kweParamende yeEuropean kuchaenda kurudyi musarudzo dzegore rino, uye kuti izvi zvinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kuEuropean Commission uye kugona kweKanzuru kuendesa mberi zvisungo zvezvemamiriro ekunze nezvekunze, kusanganisira. chikamu chinotevera cheEuropean Green Deal. "

VANHU

Simon Hix ndiStein Rokkan sachigaro mune zvematongerwo enyika paEuropean University Institute muFlorence. Aimbove mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weLondon School of Economics, uye wekutanga Harold Laski sachigaro mune zvematongerwo enyika sainzi kuLSE. Akanyora pamusoro pemabhuku e150, zvinyorwa zvedzidzo, mapepa emitemo, uye mablogiki ane chekuita netsvagiridzo paEuropean uye kuenzanisa zvematongerwo enyika. Simon akahwina mibairo yekutsvagisa kwake kubva kuAmerican Political Science Association uye UK-US Fulbright Commission. Simon ishamwari yeBritish Academy uye Shamwari yeRoyal Society of Arts. Simon anga achifanotaura nezvesarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean kubvira 1999.

Dr Kevin Cunningham mudzidzisi wezvematongerwo enyika, nyanzvi dzezvematongerwo enyika, uye muongorori. Akashandira akati wandei emapato ezvematongerwo enyika, kunyanya achitungamira kunangwa uye ongororo yeUK Labor Party. Kevin anewo nyanzvi mune zvematongerwo enyika ekubva kune dzimwe nyika uye akashanda kwemakore matatu semuongorori wepurojekiti yakabhadharwa neEU kuti anzwisise zvematongerwo enyika ekubva kune dzimwe nyika. Anomhanyisa Ireland Inofunga, achishanda zvakanyanya kumasangano ehurumende, vadzidzi, uye mapato ezvematongerwo enyika.

Vanhu vanotevera vakapawo mazano akakosha uye rutsigiro pamushumo uyu:

Susi Dennison inhengo yepamusoro yezvematongerwo enyika kuEuropean Council on Foreign Relations. Misoro yake yekutarisa inosanganisira zano, zvematongerwo enyika uye kubatana muEuropean kunze kwenyika mutemo; Mamiriro ekunze nesimba, kutama, uye chishandiso cheEurope semutambi wepasirese.

Imogen Learmonth maneja wechirongwa uye muongorori kuDatapraxis, sangano rinopa zano rehunyanzvi, tsvakiridzo yemaonero everuzhinji, kuenzanisira nekuongorora masevhisi kumapato ezvematongerwo enyika, asiri-purofiti, midhiya uye masangano ekutsvagisa muEurope.

KUSVIKIRA

Maitiro ekuseri kwekufanotaura kwakavakirwa pahuwandu hwehuwandu hwekufanotaura kuita kwemapato enyika musarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean.  

Iyo modhi inoshandisa mana masosi eruzivo nezve bato rega rega renyika muEU:

1. Mamiriro akaita bato pasarudzo dzesarudzo dzenyika;

2. Mugove wemavhoti akahwinwa nebato musarudzo dzeparamende dzichangopfuura; 

3. Kuti bato richange riri muhurumende here panguva yesarudzo dza2024; 

4. uye kuti bato nderemhuri ipi yezvematongerwo enyika.

ECFR inotarisira kuti pachave nekusawirirana kwakarongeka pakati pesarudzo dzemazuva ano dzepfungwa uye kuti mapato achashanda sei muna Chikumi 2024. 

Kuti vaone uye vazvidavirire pamusiyano uyu, vakatarisa kuti mavhoti mangani bato rimwe nerimwe rakahwina musarudzo dza2014 uye 2019 dzeParamende yeEuropean zvine chekuita nekumira kwavo pasarudzo munaNovember-Zvita 2013 na2018 zvichiteerana. ECFR yakabva yashandura muenzaniso wedu uchishandisa nhamba yekuenzanisa kuti ione ukuru hwezvinhu zvakananga zvinotsanangura kusiyana kwemaonero ekuongorora 6-7 mwedzi isati yasarudzwa uye mhinduro chaiyo yesarudzo. 

Ongororo iyi yakaburitsa zvinotevera:

1. Sarudzo dzepfungwa muna Mbudzi-Zvita sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa (idzo dzose dzakabva pamibvunzo “yechinangwa chevhoti yenyika”) inofanotaura zvingangoita zvikamu makumi manomwe nepfumbamwe kubva muzana zvechikamu chevhoti chebato musarudzo dzinotevera dzeParamende yeEuropean;
2. Kuitwa kwesarudzo dzeparamende yenyika dzakapfuura kunofanotaura imwezve chikamu chegumi nembiri chevhoti musarudzo dzakazotevera dzeParamende yeEuropean - zvichireva kuti mushure menguva yemushandirapamwe, vamwe vavhoti vanodzokera kubato ravakavhotera musarudzo dzenyika dzakapfuura;
3. Mapato emubatanidzwa madiki anowanzoita zvakanyanya kuipa musarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean pane maonero avo esarudzo 6-7 mwedzi iri mberi; uye
4. Mapato eGreen nemapato eEurosceptic anowanzo kuita zvirinani musarudzo dzeParamende yeEuropean pane maonero avo esarudzo mwedzi mitanhatu-6 iri mberi, nepo mapato egutsaruzhinji anowanzoita zvishoma.

Zvakakosha kuziva kuti munyika dzakawanda, hurongwa hwemapato uye kumira kwemapato kuchachinja pakati pezvino neEuropean Parliament sarudzo. Mapato ari muhurumende neanopikisa anogara achichinja mune dzimwe nyika. Zvinotonyanya kukosha, mamwe mapato achabuda, asi mamwe achafa. Kusavimbika uku kunoderedza mamwe emhedzisiro iyi kure nesarudzo. Sezvatinoswedera pedyo nesarudzo, kusava nechokwadi uku kuchaderedza, uye fungidziro yemuenzaniso ichachinja.

Nezve ECFR

IEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) inohwina mubairo, pan-European think-tank. Yakatangwa muna Gumiguru 2007, chinangwa chayo ndechekuita tsvakiridzo uye kukurudzira gakava rine ruzivo muEurope yose pamusoro pekuvandudzwa kwetsika dzeEurope dzinoenderana uye dzinoshanda-zvakavakirwa kunze kwenyika. ECFR isangano rakazvimirira uye rinopihwa mari kubva kwakasiyana siyana. Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo, ndapota shanya: www.ecfr.eu/about/.

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