Panguva ino yekusagadzikana kukuru, European Union iri kutsvaga vatungamiriri vatsva

Neaimbova UK Liberal MEP Andrew Duff.

Sarudzo dzayakatarisana nadzo dzakatetepa uye dzakakosha. Nesarudzo dzenyika dzeParamende yeEuropean dziri kuitika munhengo dze27 pa6-9 Chikumi, mubvunzo ndewekuti: Vanogona here kuendesa hutungamiriri hunodiwa neEU?

Musi wa11 Chikumi muBrussels, European Parliament's Conference of Presidents (CoP), inoumbwa nevatungamiriri veboka rebato, ichasangana kuti iongorore zvakabuda musarudzo. Mushure mekupokana kwevachatora uye vakapokana, kuumbwa kwekupedzisira kweImba hakuzogadziriswa kudzamara Paramende itsva yavhura musangano wayo wekutanga musi wa16 Chikunguru. Svondo rinouya, tichaziva vakundi nevakakundwa. Asi nyaya huru ichava kufambira mberi kwekodzero.

Boka gurusa richaramba riri reEuropean People's Party (EPP), rinotungamirwa nemukurumbira Manfred Weber. Vangangodoma VaRoberta Metsola (EPP), Mutungamiriri weParamende parizvino, kechipiri. Achadaidzira zvakare temu yechipiri yaUrsula von der Leyen (EPP) seMutungamiriri weKomisheni.

Mamwe maMEP anoda kusunga von der Leyen kukwikwidza kuhurongwa huchangobva kutaurirana mushure mezvibvumirano zvehurumende yemubatanidzwa muGermany. Izvozvo zvingava kukanganisa kukuru. Chekutanga, kodzero chaiyo yekudoma mutungamiri weKomisheni iri neEuropean Council, kwete Paramende. Zvakare, iyo pfungwa yehurumende yeEU, zvakanyanya, haina kujeka, uye simba rekutonga riri kugovaniswa zvisina tsarukano pakati peKomisheni neEuropean Council. Kutaurirana chibvumirano chemanyepo pakati pemapoka anopokana zvingatora nguva (kusvika Gunyana) iyo EU isingakwanise kutenga.

Chero zvazvingava, zvakaitika zvinoratidza kuti kuedza kweParamende pakuronga nhaurirano kunowanzova kwenguva pfupi. Panguva iyo basa reMubatanidzwa rinoiswa zvakanyanya nezviitiko zvekunze, kwete zvishoma Ukraine, dhigirii repragmatism raizoita Paramende zvakanaka. Nepo ruzhinji muParamende ruchichinja zvichienderana nemutemo kana bhajeti riripo, Imba iyi inoramba yakapatsanurwa pamibvunzo yebumbiro pakati pevemubatanidzwa nevenyika.

Maonero kubva kumusoro

European Council, kana iri chikamu chayo, ichaita musangano usina kurongeka musi wa 17 Chikumi neMutungamiriri wayo ari kubuda, Charles Michel, ataura naMetsola kuti abvumirane nehurongwa hwakaiswa neChinyorwa 17(7) cheChibvumirano cheEuropean Union. Izvi zvinogadza kuti "[T] tichifunga nezvesarudzo dzeParamende yeEurope uye mushure mekuita kubvunzana kwakakodzera, European Council, ichishanda neruzhinji rwakakodzera, ichakurudzira kuEuropean Paramende munhu achave Mutungamiriri weKomisheni". Masimba esimba akadaro anofanirwa kuratidzwa kunoshanda. Michel anofanirwa kuenda kuParamende, zviri nani netsoka, aine makamera eTV mutow, kuti asangane neCoP musi wa20 Chikumi.

Pana 27-28 June, European Council ichasangana kuti iite kudomwa zviri pamutemo. Mutungamiri weKomisheni von der Leyen vangangogadzwa kana vachiri kuda basa racho. Mutungamiriri weHungary Viktor Orban anoda kuvhoterwa panguva ino nekuda kwezvikonzero zvepfungwa, sezvaaive ari muna 2019. Anogona kutsigirwa panguva ino neSlovakia. Asi munhu wese achazviverengera ega mukana wevon der Leyen wekusarudzwa patsva neParamende. Anoda huwandu hwakakwana hweMEPs, 361 mavhoti akanaka (kurega hakuverengeki). Kuvhota, kwakakodzera muStrasbourg pa20 Chikunguru, iri muchivande. Kuranga kweboka kunenge kusina kusimba. Mumwe anoyeuka kuti akangopinda pachigaro muna 2019 nemavhoti mapfumbamwe, achitsigirwa panguva iyoyo nemaBritish MEPs mazhinji pamwe neaya ebato reOrban's Fidesz nePoland Law and Justice (PiS).

 
Kuruboshwe uye Kurudyi

Dambudziko raVon der Leyen riri pachena. Kunyangwe anga ari Mutungamiriri ane hunyanzvi uye anoshingaira mumamiriro ezvinhu akaoma, iye zvino ane rekodhi yekudzivirira. MaMEP mazhinji emasocialist ari kushamisika kuti sei vachifanirwa kutarisirwa zvakare kuvhotera muGerman Christian Democrat pakuraira kwaChancellor Scholz. Mutungamiri Macron's Renew boka rinoita serakatsemuka nepakati. Uye maGreens anokahadzika kuzvipira kwavon der Leyen kumitemo yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Kunyangwe kana mutsara wepamutemo wemapoka mana ecentrist uchitsigira von der Leyen, huwandu hwevasina kugutsikana huchakwira. Haazoite kechipiri kana chiyero cheattrition chiri kupfuura 20%.

Sezvo mushandirapamwe uchiri kuitika, zvinova pachena kuti ivo von der Leyen anowedzera kuita seSpitzenkandidat weEPP, mukana wake wekuvhota zvakare ushoma. Kumbundikira vamwe mavara asina kunaka, saBoyko Borissov, hakuwedzere mukurumbira wake. Kana akatsaukira kurudyi - kunyanya kumatare ekurudyi mavhoti eGiorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia (ECR) - anorasikirwa nemavhoti pakati. Kunyangwe mamwe maEPP MEPs (the French Républicains) akatotaura kuti havamuvhotere.

Zvichakadaro, mauto efissiparous of the populist and nationalist right, uyo achaita zvakanaka pasarudzo, ari kugadzirira kurwisana nemuzinda wakasununguka. Kugadziriswa kwemapato mukati meboka reEuropean Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) neboka reIdentity and Democracy (ID) kuri kuitika. Tarisira kushanduka. Orban's Fidesz naMarine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, zvakasiyana-siyana antisemitic uye Islamophobic, vane makadhi emusango ane simba ekutamba.

Paramende itsva ichave yakanyanyisa kupfuura kare. Kubvumirana kwechinyakare 'pro-European' kwakavakirwa kutenderedza Franco-German axis haina kuvimbiswa. Kutyisidzirwa kuchengetedzeka kweEurope kwakaunzwa nehondo muUkraine uye nekukwira kusingawirirane nekune dzimwe nyika kwakabvisa zvematongerwo enyika eEU. Union yapinda mugwara rebumbiro remitemo, paine nzira dzekuvandudza bumbiro remitemo pamwe nekuwedzera kuri kuita sekunge kwakavharwa. Izvo hazvifanirwe kushamisa kana kunyadzisa kana von der Leyen akatadza kusvika kune yechipiri temu.

 
Ronga B

Zvino chii? Kana Paramende ikaramba von der Leyen, pachave nerunyararo rwezvematongerwo enyika asi kwete dambudziko rebumbiro. Chokwadi, vhoti yeParamende yemumiriri wenyika dziri nhengo inogona kuve chiitiko chikuru kuEurope yemubatanidzwa. Chibvumirano cheLisbon chinopa chiitiko ichi. Vatungamiriri vehurumende vachange vaine mwedzi mumwe chete kuti vabude nemunhu ari kudomwa necentrist. Hunhu hwemunhu uye kuvimbika kwezvematongerwo enyika padanho repamusoro ndiwo akakosha maitiro, kwete bato kana nyika (kunyangwe isu tingangotora asiri weGerman).

Patova nekufungidzira kwakawanda pamusoro paMario Draghi, aimbova Mutungamiriri weEuropean Central Bank uye mutungamiriri weItaly anoremekedzwa zvikuru. Vasina kubatanidzwa nebato, Draghi ari kutogadzirira mushumo mukuru weramangwana rehupfumi hweEU. Kunyangwe zvimiro zvake zvingamutungamira kuti abudirire Michel sachigaro weEuropean Council, anogona kuuya kana akadaidzwa kuKomisheni. Meloni anosungirwa kumutsigira, saka kudomwa kwaDraghi kwaizobvisa nyore nyore chipingamupinyi cheparamende pamusangano weplenary waGunyana 16-19. Kutsvaga Draghi, zvisinei, ibhizinesi rakapfava. Kana kukwikwidza kwake kwaizoitwa zviri pamutemo pamberi pe20 Chikunguru, mukana wavon der Leyen waizodzimwa.

Chero zvazvingava, ani naani anopinda pachigaro chemutungamiri weKomisheni, pachava nekunetsana pakati pemapoka emapato kune mamwe mabasa epamusoro. Kuenzana kwenharaunda uye kwevakadzi zvakakosha zvimwe zvinhu. Kugadzirwa kweCommissioner anotarisira portfolio yezvidziviriro panguva ino mubairo unogona kuwedzera. EU inodawo Secretary Treasury uye Attorney General. Mumatsutso, Paramende ichafadza vamiriri veCommissioner, pamwe vachidzinga vamwe uye kugadzirisa mapotifolio, isati yabvumira koreji nyowani muvhoti yekufona.

Kana hutungamiri hutsva hwavepo, hunofanirwa kuratidza zvakadzama kuti sei sarudzo dzemuEurope dzaive chiitiko chinoomesera vavhoti, vanokwikwidza uye nenhepfenyuro. Kubuda kwevanhu kuchave kwakashata zvakare. Hunhu hweEurope hwemushandirapamwe hwave hwekunyomba. Kufunga kwakanaka kunogona pakupedzisira kumanikidza nyika dzenhengo kuti dzigamuchire shanduko yesarudzo yeParamende kuti iunze dunhu reEU iro chikamu cheMEPs chinogona kusarudzwa kubva pamazita epasi rose. Mapato ezvematongerwo enyika, anotsigirwa neSpitzenkandidaten, anodiwa zvakanyanya kuti Europeanise sarudzo dzinotevera muna 2029 uye kusimbisa hutongi hwejekerere hweMubatanidzwa. Nenzira iyoyo, vatungamiriri vatsva veEU vachauya.

Imwe nzvimbo uko, kekutanga mumakore 45, pasina sarudzo dzeEurope dzakaitwa yaiva United Kingdom. NaBrexit, maBritish akapa kodzero dzavo sevagari veEU, chakanyanya kukosha ikodzero yekuvhota nekumiririra Paramende yeEuropean. Iyo UK inoita seisina hanya nekurasikirwa kwayo kwekumiririra muParamende yeEuropean. Asi chinokatyamadza ndechekuti UK ichasvetukira kuruboshwe musarudzo dzayo dzemusi wa 4 Chikunguru sezvo dzimwe dzeEurope dzichinanga kurudyi. Imbomira uchifunga.

Andrew Duff iAcademic Fellow yeEuropean Policy Center. Aimbova Nhengo yeParamende yeEuropean (1999-2014), Mutevedzeri weMutungamiriri weLiberal Democrats, Mutungamiriri weFederal Trust, uye Mutungamiriri weUnion of European Federalists (UEF). Anonyora @AndrewDuffEU

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