Economy yeUkraine Inoda A New Lease PaHupenyu

Mumwe haafanire kuve shasha yemauto kuti anzwisise kuti Ukraine iri munzvimbo yakaoma muhondo yayo neRussia - anonyora Stephen J. Blank. A itsva yeRussia inogumbura vachipesana neKharkiv, iro guta rechipiri rakakura, mukupera kwesvondo rapfuura, rinoshanda sechiratidzo chekusindimara kwekutyisidzira kweRussia kushandura mativi emutsetse weUkraine. Kunonoka kusingakoshi kwemwedzi mitanhatu kwerubatsiro uye zvombo kubva kuMadokero kwakagonesa kufambira mberi kweRussia.

Pane imwe nguva, hondo ichapera. Kunyangwe kana kuti Ukraine inosiya nyika kumabvazuva kweRwizi rweDnieper kana kuti mativi maviri anobvumirana nehondo inosanganisira Crimea pasi pekugara kweRussia hazvizivikanwe.

Chinozivikanwa ndechekuti maindasitiri ekumabvazuva kwerwizi irworwo akaparadzwa zvakanyanya, uye hupfumi hweUkraine huchamira chete parutsigiro rwehupenyu hwekuMadokero pasina shanduko huru. Icho chokwadi chekuti yakawanda yeUkraine inorema indasitiri ndeye yakaungana kumabvazuva yenyika haibatsiri.

Pamberi pekupinda kwazvino kwakatanga munguva yechando ye2022, Ukraine yaive yatove mukwereti anotungamirira kuInternational Monetary Fund. IEuropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development yaivepowo, ichiedza kugadzirisa hupfumi hweUkraine. Shanduko yakasvika - asi zvishoma nezvishoma. Shanduko dzakafambira mberi kuvepo kwemitemo uye sununguko (inoenderera mberi kunyange munguva yehondo).

Kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakatowedzera kuipa uku. Zvichitevera kutadza kudzikamisa bato rekuparadzanisa rakaitwa neMoscow muDonbas, kupindira kwakazara kwakauya, uye mamiriro ezvinhu akaipa akawedzera.

Mu 2022, the World Bank, yakashuma kuti hurombo hweUkraine hunowedzera kagumi. Panguva imwecheteyo, GDP yayo pamunhu kudonha 17.1% gore iroro. Iyo mhute yehondo inovharidzira data kubva gore rapfuura, asi zvakanyanyisa kuipa izvozvi.

Zvisingashamisi, kuparadza uku kwakatarisana nenharaunda nebhizinesi kwagadzira mukana wemasangano ematsotsi muUkraine, chinhu icho hurumende yeUkraine yaitove nedambudziko rekuve nayo.

Kwemakumi matatu emakore apfuura, mhosva yakarongeka yeUkraine yakashatisa zvematongerwo enyika nebhizinesi reUkraine, uye yaive pedyo yakabatana netsotsi reRussia networks. A Brookings ripoti inodonongodza nzira iyo tsotsi reUkraine underworld, iyo yaiburitswa zvishoma nezvishoma kubva mune zvematongerwo enyika isati yarwiswa neRussia, yaigona kudivi reRussia kana mamiriro achibvumira.

Kwemakore, ichi chitsotsi chakashandawo nemamwe oligarchs ekuUkraine. Inogona kunge isiri mhosva mune yakaitwa-ye-TV pfungwa - kuponda nekubiwa kwebhangi, zvinodhaka kana kutengeswa kwevanhu, asi pane chikamu chemusika mutema kune hupfumi hweUkraine, hunotangazve mushure memakore gumi ekuderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Sezvo hupfumi hweUkraine huchikwira mukusagadzikana, kutengeserana kwemanyepo uye kusiri pamutemo kuri kuwedzera.

Hukuru hwekutengesa kusiri pamutemo uku kwakaoma kuziva, asi pane chigadzirwa chimwe chete chakatanhamara: midzanga. Muna 2020, Ukraine yakapfuura China kuti ive manyuko makuru eEurope efodya isiri pamutemo, uye iyo zvinoramba zvakadaro. KuUkraine, kutengeswa kwefodya kusiri pamutemo kunoguma kurasikirwa kwemari inosvika 20.5 bhiriyoni hryvnia (inenge 480 miriyoni euros) mumitero isingabhadhare kana kubhadharwa zvishoma muna 2022. Musika wefodya weUkraine wakakura nekukurumidza kubva pa2% yefodya yose inonwiwa muna 2017, kusvika pa22% muna 2022, maererano ne a 2022 report nesangano rekutsvakurudza misika yeKantar. A 2018 zvichitevera chibvumirano pakati peKyiv neBrussels chekuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma mutero wefodya kuti uenderane neEuropean tax tsika yakatadza kumisa mhepo. Huwandu hwepamutemo hwefodya hwakadzikira ne46% kubva muna 2018-2022 ukuwo chikamu chekutengesa zvisiri pamutemo chakawedzera kubva pa2% muna 2017 kusvika parekodhi yepamusoro 25.7% muna Gumiguru 2023.

Kuti ichengetedze chikwereti chekunze, Ukraine yaifanira kugadzirisa hupfumi hwayo, nekuichenesa kubva mukunzvenga mutero. Iyo Economic Security Bureau yeUkraine yakagadzirwa muna 2021 kuita izvozvo. Basa ravo raive rekuferefeta mhosva dzeupfumi, kusanganisira kutengeswa kwefodya kusiri pamutemo.

Kusakwanisa kweUkraine kugadzirisa kutengeswa kwefodya zvisiri pamutemo kunoratidza mafungiro emunyika iyi semusika usina kugadzikana, uchigara uchingoda rubatsiro rwemari. Inoratidza kushomeka kwese kwesimba remasangano kuita chaizvo shanduko yehupfumi uye kurwisa huwori, chinhu icho IMF neEBRD dzanga dzichikumbira kweanopfuura makore gumi. Kutengeserana kwakadaro kusiri pamutemo kunogona kukanganisa chido chekuMadokero chekuzvibata neUkraine.

Iri idambudziko rinogadziriswa. Kyiv inogona kukurudzira kumisa mamwe mabenchmarks uye zvinangwa zvinogoneka mukurwisa kutengeswa kwefodya zvisiri pamutemo muUkraine. Mushure meimwe kuwedzera kwemitero inogona kuunza inopfuura 30 bhiriyoni hryvnia (inenge 700 miriyoni euros) yekuwedzera bhajeti mari gore rino uye kuratidza kuti Ukraine ipfuma yehupfumi. Inogona kuratidza simba rezvematongerwo enyika uye kugona kwemasangano kuzviitira mari, zvichigonesa kuve nehukama hwakasimba hwenguva refu neEurope. Ingori kutarisa kwakanaka kweUkraine kana vakakwanisa kuwana izvi pasi pesimba.

Kubva 2014, vatungamiriri veUkraine vakatarisana neWestern vakakurukura chishuwo chavo chekujoinha EU rimwe zuva uye kusiya nzvimbo yeRussia yesimba nehupfumi. Kubatanidzwa kweUkraine mumusika wemukati weEU kuri panjodzi kana Brussels ichiiona senyika isingakwanise kuwana musika wayo mutema pasi pekutonga. 

Vatambi vekune dzimwe nyika havasi kufadzwa nekufambira mberi kwe Kyiv. "Tichifunga nezvehondo irikuenderera mberi, kusazadzwa kwakakwana kweBudget yeHurumende, uye kuderedzwa kwerubatsiro rwehupfumi nemauto kubva kune vanodyidzana nedzimwe nyika, kukura kwechikamu chemumvuri wehupfumi, sekureva kwevamiriri vebhizinesi, hazvigamuchirike," American Chamber of Commerce. akati mune chirevo chinotevera chirevo cheKantar muna 2023.

Sangano reEuropean Business Association akati iyo “yakasimbisa yasimbisazve chinetso cheupfumi hwomumvuri muUkraine, uhwo hunopfuura zvikuru indasitiri yefodya. Nekudaro, kunyangwe nyaya dzine mukurumbira munhau, mamiriro ezvinhu ari kuramba achiipa. "

Hukuru hwekutengeserana kusiri pamutemo kunoitika muUkraine hunoratidza kuti mapoka ematsotsi akarongeka ari shure kwayo. Vangangove vakapa mapurisa chiokomuhomwe nemapurisa, vecustoms nevarindi vepabhodha nevamwe vakuru vezvemitemo kuti vabvumidze kutengeswa nekutengeswa kwezvinhu izvi.

Kana Ukraine ichida kuve Nhengo yeEU, ine nzira refu yekuenda. Huori uye nyika yekare, dhiyabhorosi-may-care maitiro akadzika midzi. Kana hondo iyi yapera, vashandi vekuchenesa vachange vaine basa rakawanda pamberi. Basa iroro richasanganisira zvinopfuura kusefa mumarara uye kuva nechokwadi chokuti mwenje wakabatidzwa. Zvichareva kuedza kunyengerera hutungamiriri hwezvematongerwo enyika hweUkraine kuita izvo IMF neEBRD zvatadza kuita kubvira 2014: shandura tsika yehuori hwezvematongerwo enyika.

Stephen J. Blank, Ph.D., ndiye Senior Fellow paFPRI's Eurasia Chirongwa. Akaburitsa pamusoro pezvinyorwa zve1500 uye monographs paSoviet/Russian, Ukrainian US, Asia, uye European mauto uye ekunze marongero..

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