Misika yemastock epasi rose ichiri muvortex ye #COVID-19 dambudziko

Mushure me 'Black China', misika yepasi rose yakadonha zvakare musi wa 15 Chikumi, neMSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index yakaderera ne2.34% uye Nikkei 225 yakaderera 3.47%; South Korean stock market yakadonha zvakanyanya, neKOSPI yakanyura 4.76%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng index yakadonha 2.17% uye China's A-share musika zvakare inodonha zvishoma. Europe main stock indices yakadonha zvakanyanya mukutanga kwekutengesa. Zvinoenderana nedata, kubvira 15:16 Beijing nguva, iyo UK FTSE 100 index, iyo French CAC40 index, uye iyo German DAX index yakadonha 2.15%, 2.87%, uye 2.80%, zvichiteerana. Zvichakadaro, US stock index ramangwana rakadonha zvakanyanya, neDow Jones 30 pasi 3.49%, iyo S&P 500 yakaderera kupfuura 3%, uye NASDAQ 100 pasi 2.45% panguva imwe chete. Njodzi yekudzivirira yakawedzera, iine S&P 500 VIX index ramangwana, geji yekutya, ichikwira 13.57%. Chii chiri kuitika mumisika yemari inoratidzira kururamisa kwechipiri. Ramangwana remafuta epasi rose rakawirawo pasi pesimba rekudzivirira njodzi, neramangwana reWTI crude rakadonha 4.91% uye Brent yakadonha 3.59%, nyora Chan Kung uye Wei Hongxu.

The kuderera kwemisika yepasi rose inogona kutorwa sekuenderera mberi kwesvondo rapfuura kudhonzera kwakapinza mumusika wemasheya weUS. Kururamisa uku kwakauya pakati pekutya kukuru kwekutangazve kwekoronavirus uye kutora purofiti yevanoisa mari mushure mekudzokororwa kwakanyanya mumusika wemasheya. Sezvo Anbound akambotaura, shanduko yedenda ichiri chinhu chikuru chiri kukanganisa musika wemasheya. Kudzokororwa mukubuda kwazvino kunorema pamisika yepasirese.

Huwandu hunoratidza kuti muna Chikumi 14, huwandu hwenyaya mumatunhu masere eUS mumazuva matatu apfuura hwaive hwepamusoro-soro hwakambonyorwa, zvichiratidza kuti wave wave kuuya nekukurumidza. Zvinoenderana nechaiyo-nguva data kubva kuJohns Hopkins University, kubva 7h30 15 Chikumi, Beijing nguva, pakanga paine zviuru zviviri nemazana mapfumbamwe nemakumi mapfumbamwe ezviuru zvakasimbiswa zveCCIDID-2,092,900 muUnited States uye 19 vafa. Munyika dzakaita seBrazil neRussia, COVID-115,700 iri kupararira nekukurumidza. Panguva imwecheteyo, kuChina uko mamiriro edenda ari pasi pekutonga, nyaya nyowani dzakabuda muBeijing. Izvi zvinoreva kuti kuputika kucharamba kuripo kwenguva yakareba, zvichienderana nekutenderera kwedenda munyika. Kusvika denda raiswa pasi pehutongi, hapana nyika yega ingangoita nani. Hunhu hwenguva refu hwedenda hunoita kuti musika mukuru wepasi rose unyure mukati medambudziko redambudziko, zvichiita kuti zviome kuwana kupora chaiko.

Kugadziriswa kwemusika uku kunogona kunzi kururamisa kwekusiyana pakati pemusika wekutengesa uye hupfumi chaihwo. Muchokwadi, kukurumidza kupora mumasheya eUS kunoreva kuti kupatsanurwa pakati pemari nehupfumi chaihwo kwave kuwedzera zvakanyanya nekuti hupfumi hahuna kusimuka pamwe chete nahwo uye huri pamusoro pekuchinja mune zvinotarisirwa. Kunonoka kupora muhupfumi chaihwo kuri kuita kuti vatengesi vagadzirise uye vagadzirise mitengo yemasheya yakawandisa. Maonero akangwarira ehupfumi hweUS kubva kumusangano weFed wesvondo rapfuura akamutsa kusahadzika mumisika yemari. Kuwanda kwekutaura kwekuchenjerera kubva kuvakuru veFed kwakawedzera kushushikana misika. #

Pana 14 June, Mutungamiri weDallas Fed Robert Kaplan akaratidza kushushikana pamusoro pekupora. Akataura kuti huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa hweUS hucharamba hwakakwira kana pamusoro pe8% kusvika pakupera kwegore. Chirevo ichi chawedzera kutya kwemusika. Kunyangwe iyo data yehupfumi yakaburitswa neChina yakaratidza kudzoreredzwa kwehupfumi zvishoma nezvishoma, hapana kubuda mumaindasitiri, mashandisirwo kana huwandu hwekudyara hwakasangana netarisiro yemusika. ANBOUND yakambotaura kuti COVID-19 ine "muswe muswe wakareba" unogara kwenguva yakareba uye unosiyana nenyika nenyika, izvo zvichave nekukanganisa kwenguva refu pahupfumi. Kusakwanisa kwehupfumi chaihwo kuti hugadzirike munguva pfupi iri kupfekedza tariro yevanoisa mari uye kuita kuti gadziriso isingadzivisike.

Zvinoenderana nekutarisa kwemusika mukuru nevatsvagiri veANBOUND, iyo yapfuura yakaita V-yakaumbwa kudzokororwa kweUS stocks yaive "surplus capital effect". Kuburitswa kusati kwamboitika kwemari mushure mehurongwa hwekusimudzira husati hwamboitika hwemabhanga epakati munaKurume kwakadzoreredza dambudziko rekushomeka kwemari uye kwakasimudza tarisiro yemusika nezvedenda uye nemamiriro ehupfumi, zvichikurudzira kubhuroka kwemusika wemasheya. Pasi pekukanganisa kweCCIDID-19, matanho ekupindura akasarudzwa nenyika dzepasirese haana kukwanisa kubvisa maitiro ekurerutsira kwemutemo.

Central banks 'bail-outs uye "kudzoreredza" kwehupfumi hwenyika kucharamba kuchiwedzera mari yakawandisa mumisika. Kana zvakashata zvepakati pemabhanga 'kurerutsa mutemo wekurerutsira zvatanga kuoneka, misika yemasheya inozoendawo kugadziriso. Kana misika ichinge yaziva zvizere nezvehurefu uye hwakaoma hunhu hwekudzoreredza, ivo vanowanzo tora kuchenjerera uye nenjodzi-averse mazano, ayo anozowedzera kusundira misika kuzasi.

Misika yezvemari, iyo yakawana kukurumidza kudzoreredza kwakafanana neV, inokanganiswa neiyo yekupedzisira-yakasununguka marongero emabhangi epakati akadai seFed. Mukufamba kwekugadziriswa kwechipiri, manzwiro emusika achaderera. Iyo Fed nepakati mabhanga ichave nenguva yakaoma yekununura musika, nekuti kumashure-uye-kumashure mune investor manzwiro kuchaita kuti kurudziro yeramangwana isashande. Uye zvakare, pasi pe "refu muswe mhedzisiro" yedenda, zvakaoma kuti misika yemisika idzoke. Misika yemari yeramangwana icharamba isina kugadzikana, zvichiita kuti zviome kudzoreredza pfungwa.

mhedziso

Kuenderera mberi uye kudzokororwa kweCovid-19, pamwe nekugadziriswa kwezvinotarisirwa kudzoreredza hupfumi, zvinotungamira misika yepasi rose mudambudziko rekugadziriswa kwechipiri mushure mekukurumidza kudzoreredzwa kweV. Muchirevo che "excess capital", zvigadziriso zvakadaro zvinogona kunge zvakanyanya uye zvinokanganisa kudzoreredza kwehupfumi kana kutogadzira matambudziko matsva.

Muvambi weAnbound Think Tank muna 1993, Chan Kung ava Anbound Chief Researcher. Chan Kung mumwe wenyanzvi dzeChina dzine mukurumbira mukuongorora ruzivo. Mazhinji eChan Kung's akanakisa ekutsvaga zviitwa zvedzidzo ari muongororo yeruzivo rwehupfumi, kunyanya munzvimbo yehurongwa hweveruzhinji.

Wei Hongxu, akapedza kudzidza kuChikoro cheMasvomhu chePeking University aine Ph.D. muEconomics kubva kuYunivhesiti yeBirmingham, UK muna 2010 uye muongorori kuAnbound Consulting, yakazvimirira yekufunga tank ine dzimbahwe muBeijing. 

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