#COVID-19 denda sesimba rekukanganisa kuvimba kwemasangano

Musi wa8 Kubvumbi 2020, mushure memazuva makumi manomwe nematanhatu ekuvharirwa uye kuvharirwa muWuhan, China yakavhurazve Wuhan City ndokutangazve kugadzira. Kukunda kwechinguvana kwakaitika mushure mekukuvara kusati kwamboitika muguta rino uye nekuedza kwese kwekurapa kuchengetedza vanhu vane hutachiona. China yakapira Wuhan Guta neHubei Province kuti iwane nguva yekurwisa COVID-76 munyika yese nepasirese, nyora Dr.Ying Zhang uye Dr. Urs Lustenberger. 

 Wokupedzisira, zvisinei, anoita seasingakoshese izvi. Yese data nezvidzidzo zvakadzidzwa, uye kuzvipira kwemakumi ezviuru zvevanhu hakuna kumbonyoreswa nevanozviti nyanzvi dzakapihwa basa rekugadzirira denda renyika zhinji. Kusaziva, kupopotedzana, uye kuzvikudza zvave mazwi akakosha anotsanangura kuti nyika ngani dzakatanga kubata nedenda iri. Maitiro akanakisa uye zvidzidzo zvakadzidzwa zvakaita sekushandisa AI kunyatsotevera hutachiona, kuongororwa kwehuwandu hwevanhu, uye nzira dzakasiyana dzekurapa hazvisati zvazivikanwa uye hazviitike munyika zhinji.

Nguva yakakosha yekuhwina denda iri munhanho yekutanga yakaraswa, nekuda kwekuzengurira pakati pekuvhara (kudzivirira vanhu vayo kubva kuhutachiona hwehutachiona) uye kuisa vanhu panjodzi yekufumurwa kuti vawane kudzivirira kwemombe kuitira kuti hupfumi huponeswe. Madingindira mashoma anonakidza akaita misoro yezvematongerwo enyika nevezvenhau: (1) Ichi hachisi chinhu kunze kwefuruu? Nokudaro hatifaniri kunetseka pamusoro pazvo. Mushure mezvose, ingori dambudziko reMainland China. (2) Tine zviwanikwa zvakaringana uye zvivakwa zvekurapa zvakanakisa zvepasi rose kubata nedenda iri!? Kunyangwe mushure mekunge COVID 19 yatanga kupararira kunze kweChina, nyika dzekumadokero dzichiri kufunga Covid19 senyaya yeAsia, yakafanana ne2003 SARS. Naizvozvi, rusarura rukuru rwakatanga kuitika munyika dzakawanda muEurope neNorth America. (3) Europe neUSA pazvakava musimboti wedenda nekuda kwekusagadzirira kwavo uye nekunonoka nekupindura kwavo, kubvumirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakagadzirwa se "denda iri rakatanga kubva kuChina, saka hutachiona uhu hunogadzirwa neChina?! ”, kana kuti “China inofanirwa kuve nekufa kwakawanda kubva padenda iri, kana ikashandisa matanho ekuMadokero kudzora denda iri, saka huwandu hwehutachiona hwese uye huwandu hwerufu hwakaziviswa neChina hunofanira kunge husina kunaka?! Naizvozvo, China inofanira kuripa vamwe nekurasikirwa kwavo nekutsungirirwa nedenda iri?!

Idzi nharo dzezvematongerwo enyika dzinonakidza dzakaputirwa nechido nevatungamiriri venyika dzakawanda. Zvakaratidza kuve nyore kupa mhosva China semhaka pane kubvuma kutadza kwavo nekukanganisa. Parizvino, COVID 19 yave nekusarura uye nekukasira kukonzeresa mhirizhonga munyika dzakapfuma nedzirombo. Mutengo wehupenyu wakatsungirirwa kubva mukutadza kucherechedza zvidzidzo zvakadzidzwa muAsia wakapfuura zvakanyanya njodzi yekudonha kwehupfumi. Izvi zvakaratidzwa nenyika dzakaita seSouth Korea, Singapore, neTaiwan izvo zvakaratidza kuti kuita kwechimbichimbi uye kwakasimba kungave kwakaganhurira sei mutengo kunharaunda pamwe nemutengo kuhupfumi.

Zvakafanana nedenda rekupedzisira, rinozivikanwa seSpanish Flu, rinozivikanwawo seH1N1, muna 1918, denda riripo parizvino harina tsananguro yerudzi, zera, chimiro, mwero wedzidzo yevakadzi, nezvimwe. mukana uye kusavimba. Muna 1918 panguva yeWWI apo Spanish Flu yakauraya mamirioni emasoja nevanhuwo zvavo muEurope, vezvenhau havana kubvumidzwa kutaura nezvedenda iri sezvo vatungamiriri vaitya kurasikirwa neWWI pane kurwa nedenda. Kukurumidzira kwehutano hweveruzhinji kwaisave kwekutanga uye hupenyu hwevanhu hwaive hushoma. Aya mafungiro ane mukana akakonzera kufa kwemazana emamiriyoni uye akadarika utsinye hwehondo nekure.

Zvinofadza kuti zvidzidzo zvedenda ra1918 hazvina kudzidzwa nevanhu. Sezvo nhoroondo inodzokororwa nenganonyorwa yakada kufanana umo ruzhinji rwenyika dzakabudirira dzakasarudza kuchengetedza hupfumi hwavo kwete hupenyu hwevagari vayo. Mukuita izvi vakapotsa inogona kunzi hwindo regoridhe rekushandiswa kwemitemo yegoridhe yekuti riini uye sei kubata nedenda zvine mutsindo. Pane kudaro, zvakava zvakajairika kupokana kuti munhu akange asina ruzivo rwakakwana kubva kunyika dzakambotapukirwa. Yakave nharo yekubvumirana yezvematongerwo enyika kupomera avo vakabata imwe nzira yepfungwa asi vakapindura zvakanaka kudenda uye kunzvenga kutsoropodza kwevagari pamhedzisiro inouraya yekusagadzirira. Chikonzero chekuchengeta hupfumi huchimhanya sechinhu chekutanga pachinzvimbo chekukurumidza kugadzirisa mitemo yekurwisa denda iri chave chikonzero chikuru chekuparara kwehupfumi.

Dilemma

Vazhinji vakati sarudzo pakati yenzara (hupfumi) nehurwere (denda) idambudziko. Isu tinokakavara, zvisinei, kuti kune avo chete vasina kugadzirira sarudzo iyi inounza dambudziko. Kana hurongwa hwave hwakabudirira, hwakasimba, uye hwakabatana, kukuvadzwa uye kurasikirwa kubva kune chero dambudziko rinofanofungidzira uye rinogona kudzikiswa. Kunyangwe hazvo dambudziko rakaoma kufembera uye kudzora, hurongwa hwakasimba hunokwanisa kugadzirira matura ekuti vese vafambe nemairi. Asi chii chatinacho zvino?

Denda riripo iye zvino ratyora cheni yenyika, yakonzera mamirioni evagari kusashanda, yakakonzera mamirioni emafemu kumisa bhizinesi ravo kana kubhuroka zvachose; uye zvakakomba zvikuru, zvakafumura mamiriyoni avanhu kumamiriro ezvinhu ane ngozi pasina kuwana mari yokununura yourovha uye pasina kuwana kurapwa, kunyange zvazvo tsika dzedu dzaizotiudza kuti upenyu hwose hunofanira kuponeswa. Naizvozvo, kufanofungidzira, kunyangwe vanhu vachigona kufa nekuda/zvese nzara kana/nehurwere, zvisinei kuti vanobva kunyika dzakapfuma seUSA neWest Europe, kana nyika dzine urombo dzakaita seIndia kana Bangladesh, mazhinji emasangano enyika dzese idzi. vachiri kurwisana nehupofu pakati pekuchengetedza hupfumi hwavo kana kurwisa denda. Saka nekudaro, masisitimu ese aya anoratidza kuti haana kugadzikana, akabudirira, kana kubatana. Vanoratidza kuti havana kuenzana, havagoneki, uye vanopokana.

Mukutarisana nedenda razvino, nhevedzano yemibvunzo yekukurumidzira, inoda kugadziriswa. (1) Ndezvipi zvikamu zvakakosha mukuenzanisa kwehupfumi hwedu? Inguva yakareba sei kushanda kwehupfumi kunofanira kuramba kuchigadziriswa neGDP-based index? Hatifanire here kutora denda iri semukana wekugadzirisa hurongwa hwehupfumi hwedu? Iyo yazvino sisitimu yakakwenenzverwa kuwana mhinduro kumibvunzo iyi kana kuti ichavhiringwa nemazano matsva uye pfungwa? Ndeupi mutengo wehupenyu hwemunhu wemaitiro ekungoita ekugadzirisa nyaya idzi? (2) Ko fungidziro yedu yazvino yehupfumi uye dzidziso dzadzo dzinofanirwa kuvandudzwa nekuda kwekuderera kwehupfumi kunokonzerwa nedenda iri? Zvichakwana here kuve nekudyidzana kwepasirese kwekutengeserana kwemahara kwakavakirwa pamutemo wekuenzanisa mukana chete? Ko mutemo uyu, pamwe chete nenhevedzano yezvinobva muhupfumi zvakaita sezvibvumirano zveramangwana, zvinganyatso kuunza vatori vechikamu vese vemusika budiriro pasina mabhubhu ehupfumi? Kudyidzana kwepasi pose kwakatangwa nomutemo uku kuchaunza kushandiswa kunobatsira zvakaenzana kunyika imwe neimwe here? Mhinduro ndiaiwa mukuru[1].

Zviri pachena kuti mutemo uyu wekuenzanisa mukana, kunyange kana uchifunga kuubatanidza nemutemo weabsolute advantage, hauzove wakakwana kutarisana neshanduko inoenderera mberi. Chinhu chakakosha ndechekuti, chero bedzi kubatana kuzere kwakaenzana munyika dzese uye mumakirasi ese kusingashandiswe, kugovewa kwehupfumi nekugovewa kwezvishandiso kucharamba kwakarerekera uye kusarura pakati pematanho akasiyana uye masumbu. Nepfungwa yakadai, vapfumi vanozopfuma, varombo vanova varombo; cross-level trade haizombofa yakafarira mativi ese zvakaenzana. Kunyangwe kusvetuka-svetuka kuchikwanisika kune dzimwe nyika dzinenge dzanonoka, musungo wemari yepakati unogara uchigara uri mhedziso kune vakawanda.

Upfumi mukuchengetedza simba 

Munguva iyi yeCCIDID 19 denda, vanhu vazhinji vabva pakushandisa zvakanyanya kunze kwenyika, maindasitiri ese akadzikira uye nekudaro, kuwanikwa kwakaderedzwa. Mararamiro evanhu akachinja zvikuru nekuda kwekuvharirwa uye miganhu yakakomba yezviitwa zvekushamwaridzana. Mumamiriro akaita hupfumi hwenyika, matura emari haakwanise kugoverwa zvakaenzana kuvagari vese kweinopfuura mwedzi mitatu, zvisinei nekuti nyika iri murombo kana yakapfuma. Izvi zvinonyanya kubva pakuti hurongwa hwehupfumi hwakagadzirirwa kudya zviwanikwa zveramangwana pane kuti zvirambe zviripo panguva ino. Tichishandisa pfungwa iyi uye tichifunga nezvehuwandu hunotarisirwa hwehupfumi hwepamusoro pasi pano seimwe nzira yekuratidzwa kwesimba, huwandu hwehupfumi hwehurongwa uhwu hwakatsarukana hwepasi redu hunofanira kuramba huchienderana neMutemo weKuchengetedza Simba. Nokudaro, basa reMutemo weAbsolute kana Comparative Advantage mune zvehupfumi uye kutengeserana kwenyika haisi kungowedzera huwandu hwehupfumi hwehurongwa kusvika pahupamhi hwahwo pane imwe kukurumidza asiwo kugovera kuwedzera kwakadaro kune akasiyana-siyana network zvakaenzana kana zvisina kuenzana. Kutevera Mutemo wepasi rose weConstant Energy, huwandu hwehuwandu hwehupfumi hwepamusoro hunofanirwa kunge huripo uye huverengerwa pahwaro hwehuwandu hwehupfumi hwemarudzi ose.

Nokudaro, mutemo wekugoverwa kusina kuenzana kwezviwanikwa unofanira kukonzera kusaenzana kwemigumisiro yehupfumi. Uye kusaenzana kwezviwanikwa kugovera kunobva kune inonetsa sisitimu iyo yakagadzirirwa zvakadaro. Kana nzira yekugovera zviwanikwa panyika yedu iri yoga yakavakirwa pakupamba zviwanikwa zveimwe nyika chero ipi zvayo, zvipenyu, kana zvizvarwa zvishoma zvinotevera, mutemo weConservation of Energy unofanotaura kuvhiringika kwenzanga yevanhu. Simba rinopfuura tekinoroji yemunhu nekunzwisisa rinobva rapindira kugadzirisa patsva equation yekuchengetedza simba. Simba rakadaro rinogona kuva hondo pakati pemarudzi, marudzi, marudzi, uye kunyange pakati pemapuraneti. Chikonzero chiri nyore, kugovera kwesimba kusina kuenzana kunobereka migumisiro isina kuenzana, imwe yacho ruvengo runopinza vanhu muhondo.

Tichitora dambudziko rezvemari muna 2008 semuenzaniso, hurumende yeAmerica yakaisa mari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana manomwe emadhora kuti inunure chikamu chezvemari nekubhadhara mabhanga ayo; hurumende yeUK yakaisa mari yekununura mabhiriyoni mazana masere nemakumi mashanu emadhora; hurumende yeChina yakaisa mari inosvika mabhiriyoni mazana mashanu nemakumi manomwe nemashanu emadhora (700 muzana yeGDP yeChina ya850) kuti isimudzire hupfumi, nezvimwewo. Chii chinoitwa panguva ino kugadzirisa mhedzisiro yedenda? Pamusoro pemhinduro yanonoka uye dudziro yekusaziva kwedenda nemabatiro aro, hurongwa hwekununura hwenyika yega yega hwakanga husingaenzaniswi zvachose. Homwe yese yekutsigira yeEU yenyika makumi maviri nenomwe dzeEU mudenda iri ingori mabhiriyoni mazana mashanu emadhora kutanga kwaKubvumbi. Sezvineiwo, kana kubatana kwakabatana kuchidikanwa kurwisa hutachiona, kupopotedzana, ruvengo uye kusangwarira kwerudzi zvakakurumidza kupararira.

Ruzivo uye trust yemasangano 

Vezvenhau, vakafanana na1918 pakubata neSpanish Flu, havana kukwanisa kuita basa rayo. Disinformation, kutorwa nevezvematongerwo enyika uye rusaruro rwakasimba rwekungobvuma nhema dzakaita kuti vezvenhau vaonekwe sepasina basa kune veruzhinji zvachose. Denda iri rakange risingatarisirwe kwenguva refu, uye vezvenhau vakachinja zvakanyanya kana kushoma kuita chishandiso chine simba chekuparadzira chehutungamiriri hwenyika hwacho uye kurerekera kune avo vanomanikidza mapoka. Zviripachena kuti disinformation inobva kune zvese kunyengedza kwakabva ruzivo uye nekutsausa basa revanopindirana neruzivo. Naizvozvo, kune vagari vepakati, vane ruzivo rwakasiyana-siyana uye ruzivo rushoma uye ruzivo nezve denda, hazvigoneke kuita mutongo chaiwo uye kugadzirira uye kuzvidzivirira padanho diki.

Nekufamba kwenguva iyo disinformation yakaratidza kuve isiriyo kubvumira kubuda kwechokwadi chaicho. Vanhu vakatanga kuona COVID 19 haisi semuenzaniso furuwenza sezvaitaurwa zvakanyanya; vakaona kuti chaive chisiri chokwadi kuti vatungamiri nehurongwa hwavo vaive vakagadzirira sezvavaive varamba vachitaura; vakaziva kuti kupfeka masiki kwakakosha zvakafanana nekuve nekushamwaridzana. Mukati menguva pfupi, shanduko yemafungiro enyanzvi nemutungamiri uye kuvhunduka pamusoro pemamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo kwakauya kwete chete nekubuda kwechokwadi chechokwadi asiwo kubva mukupomerwa kutsva kwezvematongerwo enyika. Nyika A inogona kupomera nyika B nezve disinformation yayo mudenda, kana nyika A inogona kutora pachena nyika X yekurapa yekurapa inotorwa kubva kunze kwenyika B. Mamiriro akasiyana anoratidza kusavimbana pakati penyika. Kana nyika nemagavhuna vari mushishi kupomerana mhosva yekukanganisa uye kushomeka kwavo, vashandi vekurapa, vachengeti, uye masayendisiti pasirese vari kuvimba nekubatana kurwisa denda.

Nekuda kwehuwandu hwemadisinformation, kusavimba uye kunyangwe ruvengo mukati menzvimbo imwe chete zvaibva. Vagari vanotanga kusavimba nemasangano avo ehurumende, masangano akazvimirira, uye mafemu anotanga kunetseka kana hurumende yavo ikavanunura kubva mukubhuroka kunoonekwa; masangano ehurumende anobvunza mutongo wemamwe masangano ehurumende; hurumende dzematunhu hadzivimbi nehurumende yavo yepakati/yemubatanidzwa… zvichingodaro zvichingodaro. Zvingani zvichatora kuti muteresi azive kuti nyika haidi kana kukwanisa kumudzivirira? Achazvirega achinyengedzwa imwezve nguva netiti isina hanya kubva kuhutungamiriri hwayo kana kuti achamuka. Tichinyatsotarisa, dambudziko rekuvimba iri rinobva mukusavimbika kwehurongwa hwese nevamiriri vayo vakuru sezvavaive pakutanga denda risati rasvika. Hurumende dzakarega kare kuva dzakavimbika, dzine mutoro, uye dzinovimbika nokuda kwougari hwadzo hwose.

Hwaro hwekuvimbika kukumbundirwa kwerudo rukuru rwune chirevo chakapamhama kupfuura rudowo zvarwo rwerudo. Kuti nditsanangure rudo rukuru urwu, ndinogara panzizi nhatu dzinotevera dzeEastern Philosophy:

 (1) Rudo rune mutsa (仁爱ren) mubhuku reConfucius rine mwero wakatanhamara kuvimbika, zviito, mabasa, uye maitiro kumapoka akasiyana ehukama; 

(2) rudo rwepasi rose (兼爱jian ai) mubhuku raMohism, richida kuti vanhu vatarisire vamwe vose zvakaenzana, uye; 

(3) nzira yechiedza mubhuku rechiBuddha. 

Kuvaka chivimbo pahwaro hworudo rukuru urwu, kuvimbika sezambuko riri pakati kunofanira kugadzirirwa negadziriro yorudo yavabereki. Gadziriro yakadaro inobatanidza rutivi rwaamai rworudo rwavabereki runoda kuti vagari varo vave vane hanya, vakashinga, vakadzikama, vakarongeka, vanobatira pamwe, uye vane murangariro wenguva refu wakafanana norudo rwaamai kuvana vavo. Ichi chikamu chehurongwa chinoda vatungamiriri kuti vagamuchire rudo rwepasirese kuti vave nehanya nevagari vayo uye kuti vagone kuvhenekera uye kutungamira vamwe (pane kuvaraira) semurudo rune mutsa.

Kumwero waro, rutivi rwababa rwegadziriro yerudo rwevabereki runofanira kunge rwakashongedzerwa nemubairo wakasimba-uye-chirango, kuitira kuti chero maitiro asina kunaka anopesana nemitemo (yakagadzwa nevavariro yenguva refu kubva kudivi raamai regadziriro) inogona. kurangwa nepo mufambiro wose wakanaka uchigona kupiwa mubayiro. Iyi nhanho yehurongwa inoda kuti vatungamiriri vave nehumwe hunhu hwepamusoro hwakabatana nesimba rekuuraya rakasimba rekugonesa vagari kuti vateerere nekuzvidira mitemo nemirau.

Masevhisi ese ari maviri ehurongwa uhu akakosha zvakaenzana, asi kuti usvike nzanga yakagadzikana yakazadzwa neruvimbo, mai-divi rerudo system ndiyo hwaro, uye rutivi rwekure rwegadziriro muchina wekuuraya, zvikasadaro, chero system ine chete divi rababa rinorasa nyore hwaro hwaro hwetsika uye kutsvedza mune yandinodaidza kuti rima divi, nepo sisitimu ine divi raamai chete inorasikirwa nematurusi ane simba ekuuraya kuti azadzise zvinangwa zvakajairika. Mabatirwo ari kuitwa denda razvino nevatungamiriri vazhinji pasirese aratidza pachena kuti sisitimu yedu ine kutadza kwakakosha sezvo ichishaya kuvimba nesangano uye chikamu chaamai cheiyo basic trust system.

Saka, ndezvipi zvinozoguma zvaitika kana tabata nezvinokonzeresa denda iri? Zvingangodaro, panogona kunge paine imwe fungu reruvengo rwepasirese rwakakonzerwa nekurasika kwakawanda kwevanhu vedu, uye ichine nguva yekuisa pamberi pekusaziva kwekukura kwehupfumi pamusoro pekupona kwevanhu. Pakupedzisira, kuziva chokwadi chekuti vatungamiriri varipo vakasiya huwandu hukuru hwehupenyu husingakoshi kunogona kukonzeresa shanduko dzagara dzichidiwa kubva mukati mehurongwa kuvakazve kuvimba uye kudzoreredza basa rehupfumi munharaunda. Kana kuchinja kwakadaro kubva mukati kwakanga kusati kwauya, zvichava zvakanyanya kuitika, kuti zvinhu zvinokanganisa kubva mukati zvichamanikidzira hurongwa husingavimbiki kuti huchinje kune imwe yakagadzikana iyo inokwanisa kuteerera mutemo wekuchengetedza simba uye rudo rwevabereki rwakadzikama. system.

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