#BeltAndRoadInitiative - Nguva yeimwe European realpolitik

"BRI inoswedera pedyo nehurongwa hwekubatsira kuderedza kutyisidzira kuripo kune nyika dzakabudirira," Sir Douglas Flint vakadaro pahurukuro ichangobva kuitwa neBritish think tank Asia House. Mumiriri weUK kuBRI akasimbisa kuti izvi zvinosanganisira "kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kukura kwevanhu, uye kusaenzana kwehupfumi", anonyora Oliver Stelling.

Nhasi (5 May), mavhiki mashoma gare gare, anogona kunge akawedzera imwe kutyisidzira: denda. Nenyaya yehukama hwayo hwemangwana neEuropean Union (EU) mudenga, Britain ichataura zvainofanira kukwezva veChina asi pfungwa yacho yakanyatsojeka. Migwagwa mitsva yeSiriki pakati peChina, Asia, Africa neEurope haisi yekungofambiswa kwezvinhu.

Vanopawo mitsara yekukurukurirana, yakasimba vanhu-kune-vanhu zvisungo, kuchinjana kwezvidzidzo uye kubatana kwepedyo mukutsvagisa, kusanganisira kuchengetedza chikafu, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze uye hutano hweveruzhinji. Kune vanopokana izvi zvinongosimbisa zvinovanetsa. Danho rinoshandisa mutsara wekubata kugoverazve mazana emapurojekiti aripo uye matsva pasi pechirongwa ichi chakaoma kutsikirira pasi kana kuzvidavirira, zvichikonzera kusagadzikana pamusoro pezvinangwa zveCCP zvechokwadi zve geopolitical uye kukura kwekutonga kwekufambisa uye nzira dzekutakura.

Mutungamiri Xi akabvuma kushomeka mukuvhurika, kutendeseka kwakanaka uye kuzvipira kune zvemari uye kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza pa2nd Belt uye Road Forum (BRF) muna Kubvumbi 2019. Vakanyatso tsidzira kutsvaga kusimudzira kwemhando yepamusoro uye kuchengetedza zvikwereti, vachitevedzera mitemo yenyika nepasirese. mitemo pamusoro pemaitiro akajeka, akajeka uye asingasaruri ekutengwa kwehurumende, pamwe nekuedza kwakawanda kurwisa huori.

Vamwe vatauri vakadaidza izvi 'rebranding', zvichiratidza kuti ndezvemeso. Asi aya haasi mashoko anoparadzirwa chete. Zvakawanda zviri panjodzi yehupfumi hwanga hwatodzikira pamberi pekoronavirus. Sezvakataurwa naSir Douglas kuAsia House: "China, ndinotenda, inoziva kuti kuwana rutsigiro rwemari yepasi rose yeBRI kunoenderana nekuvimba kwakatenderedza kuvimbika, kusimba uye kusimbiswa kwehupfumi hwemapurojekiti ega."

Hurukuro yeruzhinji pamusoro peBelt uye Road sezviri pachena yashanduka kuita ngano yemaonero maviri epasirese, kupatsanura vanobatana pamwe nenzvimbo uye pfungwa. Zvisinei, kusapindirana kwenguva refu hakusi mhedziso yakafanotaurwa.

MuBridges to Pese Pese - Kubatana seParadigm, Parag Khanna inoita nharo yekubatanidza seshoko-renhoroondo pfungwa serusununguko kana capitalism. China iri kuisa Belt neMugwagwa munzvimbo imwe chete iyoyo, ichiratidza iyo BRI sezita risingazivikanwe nekubatana uye zvinoenderana nechiratidzo chayo chekuvaka nharaunda ine ramangwana rakagovaniswa revanhu.

Izvi zvinopindiranawo nepfungwa dzenyanzvi yokuChina ine mukurumbira Zhang Weiwei (yakataurwa naParag Khanna): “Mienzaniso yenhoroondo yenhevedzano yakavakirwa pamativi epesvedzero, asi nzanga yepasi rose yakagadzikana nhasi inofanira kuvakirwa pakusikwa pamwe chete kwemarudzi ose. Yakadaro sisitimu yakadzikama ndiyo […] Zhang Weiwei anotsanangura seasymmetrical kwete hierarchical. Ndeyokuti kuchengeta kugadzikana kunoda kuzvidzora uye kuvimbana pakati pemasimba akasiyana-siyana.”

Chikamu cheizvi kudanwa kwekuMadokero kuratidza ruremekedzo uye kugamuchira kusimuka kweChina. Nyanzvi dzeChinese dzakagara dzichisimbirira kuti makore mazana maviri apfuura aive akashata uye kuti China inongotora nzvimbo yayo papasi rose. Kunyange pasina simba rine kodzero yezvimiro zvaro zvichibva munhoroondo yezvakaitika, kusimukira kunoshamisa kweChina mumakore makumi mana adarika kunokodzera kuremekedzwa. China ikozvino yave mutambi akakosha wepasi rose uye haisisiri nyika ichiri kusimukira. Asi ichiri kusarira kumashure musimba rehurukuro pasi rose. Belt uye Road yaifanirwa kushandura izvo uye zvichiri kuita.

Kana kubatana kuri kumusoro uko nerusununguko kana capitalism saka chokwadi haizoendi chero nguva munguva pfupi. Belt uye Road ndiyo proxy yayo uye kutadza kwete sarudzo. Tichifunga nezvekusawirirana kuri kuwedzera neUS uye chokwadi chekuti mabhandi mazhinji nemigwagwa zvinopera muEurope, EU ine basa rekuita mukudzoreredza kweBRI.

Europe inofanirwa kuongorora chimiro chayo uye kutsvaga basa rinoshanda mukuumba Belt uye Road 2.0. Kusiyana nehurongwa hwaVaTrump hwekuzviparadzanisa nevamwe, 'America First', pfungwa yaProfessor Zhang yekugadzira pamwe chete, kuzvidzora uye kuvimbana inotaridzika kuenderana nemaitiro akadzika midzi muEurope. VekuEurope vanofarirawo mhinduro yakayerwa pakusimuka kweChina uye kubata simba rakakura mukunyengetedza Beijing kuti itsigire mitemo yakavakirwa pasi rose uye kuenderera mberi nekuvhura hurongwa hwayo.

Mubvunzo ndewokuti China ingave yakazvipira sei kumisimboti iyoyo kana ikaedzwa?

Chokwadi-cheki:

Kubatanidzwa

Mumakore akatevera chiziviso chaXi BRI yaionekwa seineshungu uye ine muono asi zvakare yakatsanangurwa zvakasununguka uye inogara ichikura. China yakagadzirisa kushaikwa kwegwaro rakabatana nekugadzira anopfuura zana ekufunga matangi akatsaurirwa kudzidza kweBelt uye Road. Beijing yakakokawo vadzidzi vepasirese, vatauri uye vanoita zvemitemo kuti vazadze "amorphous kuvaka" yeBRI nezvirimo. Apa ndipo panotanga pfungwa yekugadzira pamwe chete.

Padanho renyika, pfungwa iyi yakadzika midzi mukutonga kwezuva nezuva kweBRI, iyo isina bato rakarongwa rakarongwa asi rimwe chiremera chekutarisa chinoshanda pasi peNational Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Masangano ehurumende akati wandei nemaminisiti ari kutungamira, kuronga nekuita mabasa ese uye anenge mapurovhinzi ese muChina ane hurongwa hwavo hwekuita BRI.

Belt uye Mugwagwa hausi wekutonga kwakazara asi kutungamira uye nekugovaniswa mabasa. Uye zvinopesana nekutenda kwakakurumbira China yemazuva ano ine inochinjika uye yekubvunzana nzira yekutonga iyo inobvumira kuchinjika iyo inogona kuwedzeredzwa kune kuumba pamwe chete "mhiri kwebudiriro".

EU yakatobvuma kuti bloc inofanirwa kuenderana nekuchinja kuri kuitika kwehupfumi kana ichibata neChina. Vese vari vaviri vakapinda mumubatanidzwa wakasarudzika unodaidzwa kuti 'EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda yeKushandirapamwe', yakavhurika uye ine simba chimiro chenhaurirano nekudyidzana zvinoenderana nekufambira mberi kwehukama hweEU-China. Izvi zvinopa chikuva chekuongorora kwese Belt uye Road matambudziko nemikana.

Kusikwa pamwe kweBRI kwaizofanira kunge kwakavakirwa pane zvakatsanangurwa zvinofarirwa nemisimboti uye kuzvipira kune inosanganisirwa Belt uye Mugwagwa unosangana nezviyero zveEU. Chero njodzi dzasara dzinofanira kupfuurwa nezvakanakira, kwete kubatirapamwe pamatanho akabatana pahutano hweveruzhinji.

Kuzvidzora

Kuchinja kweChina kune kumwe kusimbisa kwave kuri nyaya yekukakavadzana kwemakore. Sezvo Beijing yakakwanisa kuve nehutachiona kuzvivimba kwayo kwakawedzera zvakare, nezvimwe zvirevo zvepamutemo zvakasimudza tsiye dzinopfuura shoma pasirese. IUS haina kunonoka zvakare. Kutuka uye kutsamwiswa kwakaitwa kuChina neMutungamiri Trump neMunyori wavo weHurumende Pompeo hakuna hunhu uye zvinokanganisa zvakanyanya chimiro cheUS chepasirese.

Europe, US neChina dzinofanirwa kushanda pamwe chete kukunda hutachiona uye EU inoiswa zvakanyanya kutungamira mukuunza mapato ese pamwechete. KuChina izvi zvakanyanya kukosha sezvo kuenderera mberi kwetit-for-tat kunogona kukanganisa rutsigiro rwepasirese rwekutanga kwayo. Belt neRoad hazvigone izvo. Avo vakanamatira neChina kusvika pari zvino vanowanzotora maonero akareba eBRI uye vanoramba vaine chokwadi chekuti izvo zvakakosha hazvina kushanduka, kuti Belt uye Road ndiyo injini yekubatanidza dunhu, kubatana kwevanhu-kune-vanhu uye kufambisa kwehupfumi. mukana wemamiriyoni pamwe neNew Silk Roads. Inogona kutobata makiyi ekugadzirisa matambudziko akagovaniswa evanhu.

Rutsigiro rwakadaro rwakakosha zvikuru asi harungatongorerutsirwe. Naizvozvo zvakakosha kuti ugadzirise chero manzwiro asina kunaka anoonekwa kana chaiwo. "Rutsigiro rwechirongwa ichi haruuye usina kutanga wagadzirisa manzwiro asina kunaka," Sir Douglas akadaro kuAsia House. Izvozvo zvinoda kuzvininipisa zvishoma uye kuzvidzora.

Aimbove mutungamiri uye mugadziri wemazuva ano China Deng Xiaoping akafanoona kumashure. Zano rake kuChina raive rekurara pasi sezvo ichikura hupfumi. "Viga simba rako, tora nguva yako, usambotungamira", Deng akadaro zvine mukurumbira. Mutemo iwoyo uchiri kushanda.

Kuvimbana

Kugadzira pamwe uye kuzvidzora matanho ekuvaka kuvimba mukati mawo asi zvinotora zvakawanda: vimbiso yechokwadi, yakavhurika uye pachena kutaurirana. Kana Belt neMugwagwa zvichizodzokera panzira, chekutanga chinofanira kunge chiri chekubvisa kusava nechokwadi kwese nezvekwakabva coronavirus uye zvikonzero zvekunonoka kwekupindura kwekutanga - kuburitswa kuzere kuti vavharwe.

Inotevera pane rondedzero: nzira inogoneka kune yakavimbiswa kujeka kukuru kwakatenderedza Belt uye Road. Izvi zvinogona zvakare kubatsira kubvisa kurerekera kwekusimbisa - chipingamupinyi chikuru pakukurudzira kwakawanda. Kana maonero eavo vanotsvaga ruzivo uye data akapesvedzerwa nezvose zvinosimbisa fungidziro yavo yagara iripo ipapo China haigone kukunda, kunyangwe ikaita chinhu chaicho. Tora semuenzaniso kushandisa.
IAmerican Enterprise Institute (AEI) neHeritage Chinese Global Investment Tracker vakaisa mari yakazara paBRI pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi mana emadhora muna 340-2014.

Sekureva kweBloomberg kushandiswa kwaive kushoma, "madhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nemanomwe emadhora" kana chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chemadhora 337 tiririyoni, fungidziro yakajairika yekudyara kwezvivakwa, mukati menguva kusvika Mbudzi 1. Iyo "madhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nemanomwe emadhora" anogona kunge ari echokwadi asi achireva chimwe chinhu. : BRI iri kukundikana. Kuti tidzokorore, iyi ingangoita $2019bn inokatyamadza yakashandiswa kusvika parizvino. Enzanisa izvozvo neUS.

Makore anopfuura matatu akunda musarudzo nevimbiso yake yekuvandudza America, hurongwa hwemutungamiri weAmerica hwezvivakwa huchiri kumira. Kusundidzira kwaTrump kwazvino kunoshaya mari yekuwana mari inosvika hafu yakapihwa madhora bhiriyoni imwe - ingangoita mabhiriyoni mazana mana nemakumi mashanu emadhora akarongedzerwa migwagwa, mabhiriji, mafambiro neveruzhinji nezvimwe zvakawanda. Kunyangwe maRepublicans eUS haana chokwadi chekuti ichapfuura Congress. Asi hapana anopokana kuti hurongwa hwezvivakwa hwakakundikana per se. Manzwiro akadai akachengeterwa Belt uye Road uye mugadziri wayo China.

Munyika ine nyika dzakawanda, kubatana pamatambudziko akagovaniswa ndiyo chete nzira ine musoro yekuenda mberi. Kunyange zvazvo isina kukwana, BRI inogona kungova mukana wakanakisisa wevanhu wokutanga uye kuvandudzika sezvo ukama hunochinja. Zhang Weiwei akapa hwaro hwedzidzo uye veEurope vari kutanga kuronga nzira yezvematongerwo enyika nenzira dzakafanana: "Tinosangana nematambudziko akakura pakubata neChina. Ndosaka tichida zano reChina. "Zvakanaka zvekuMadokero, asi ingangoita yeEurope, inobata China sevanodyidzana, vakwikwidzi nevakwikwidzi,"

Norbert Röttgen, sachigaro weGerman Committee on Foreign Affairs, akataura pahurukuro ichangobva kuitika pamberi peBundestag.
Kufanana kunoshamisa. Kubatana-kusika chigadzirwa chekubatana mumweya wekudyidzana kwechokwadi. Kuzvidzora ndiwo maitiro anofarirwa pakati pevakwikwidzi vanotsvaga zvinangwa zvakafanana. Ose ari maviri ari mukati mekusvika ipapo. Kuvimbana chete ndiko kwasara kuve dambudziko chairo pakati pevanokwikwidza. Izvi zvinoda kuzvipira kushanda nesimba, kushivirira, nhaurirano yakavhurika uye chiyero chezvematongerwo enyika pragmatism yakasanganiswa nekuzvipira kwambotaurwa kune chokwadi-chakavakirwa, pachena uye pachena kutaurirana.

Iyo EU neChina dzinofanirwa kuona kuvhurwa kwedambudziko iri uye kuitazve purojekiti huru yekubatanidza yakambofungidzirwa. Nguva ndiyo zvino. Sokutaura kunoita Chinese: 'Gore rose rinofanira kurongerwa muchirimo.'

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