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Nei #Brexit Britain ichifanira kutarisa ku #Turkey

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8 makore apfuura

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Isu tinoshandisa kusaina kwako kukupa zvirimo munzira dzawakabvumira uye kuvandudza manzwisisiro edu pamusoro pako. Unogona kuzvibvisa chero nguva.

Muchikamu chekudzidza chakareba cheBrexit nyika shoma dziri kunze kweEuropean Union dzave pfupi pasarudzo dzeBritain. Norway inopa nzvimbo inoenderera mumusika mumwe kune avo vanoda yakapfava nzira yekusiya EU. Canada inomiririra chibvumirano chemahara chekutengeserana zvakanyanya pakupihwa kubva kumubatanidzwa. Iye zvino yave nguva yeTurkey yekupinda muBrexit lexicon - nekuda kwemubatanidzwa wayo wetsika nebloc, akanyora Paul Wallace.

Kusvika ikozvino sarudzo yeTurkey haina kumboitika. Asi izvo zvakagadzirirwa kuchinja sevapanduki veTory vanopokana neBrexit yakaoma vanobatana nebato rinopikisa reLabour Party mumavhoti eparamende. Muedzo wekutanga uchave nemusi weChina, apo nhengo dzeParamende dzichavhotera pachikumbiro chekuti hurumende iite chimwe chezvinangwa zvenhaurirano "mubatanidzwa wetsika unoshanda" pakati peBritain neEU. Kunyangwe mhedzisiro yacho isingasunge hurumende, ichaburitsa pachena kana paine ruzhinji muImba yeCommons pamavhoti akakosha angangove muna Chivabvu kana Chikumi pakugadzirisa mutemo une chekuita neBrexit izvo zvinoda kuti hurumende iite chinangwa ichi.

Kuruboshwe kumidziyo yavo Prime Minister Theresa May nekabati yake vaizoramba sarudzo yeTurkey. Asi, hurumende yeBritain iri kutsvaga yakagadziridzwa hurongwa hweEU neOttawa, zvakanzi naDavid Davis, gurukota rinotaurirana neBrussels, "Canada plus plus plus". Hurumende yeBritain inoti kana Britain yabuda muEU ichasiya mubatanidzwa wemitero, wayakabatana nawo muna 1973. Britain haisi kuzopa Brussels mutemo wayo wekutengeserana, ichiisa mitero yakafanana pazvinhu zviri kunze kweEU ichibvumidza kupinda pachena kune avo. kubva mukati mebloc. Panzvimbo iyoyo ichakwanisa kurova zvibvumirano zvayo zvekutengeserana nenyika dziri kukurumidza kukurumidza kunze kweEurope, ichifema hupenyu mukushuvira kwe "global Britain". May akarasa chero kuenderera mberi kwetsika-mubatanidzwa chinongedzo senge yeTurkey paakaisa zano rake reBrexit kutanga kwaKurume.

Kunyangwe kukundwa kweparamende muvhoti inosunga pasarudzo yeTurkey kwaizozunungusa hurumende, inogona kunge iri chikomborero chakavanza muna Chivabvu. Kutanga, inopa nzira yezvematongerwo enyika inogamuchirika yekudzikisa kukuvadzwa kwehupfumi kubva kuBrexit kupfuura modhi yeNorway, izvo zvaizoda kuti Britain igamuchire kuenderera kwakasununguka kufamba kwevanhu kubva mukati meEU. Uku kunenge kuri kuremerwa zvakanyanyisa kupihwa vanopikisa kupinda munyika izvo zvakakurudzira vavhoti vazhinji veLeave. Chechipiri, inopa nzira inogoneka yekubuda mukusagadzikana muBrexit nhaurirano pamusoro penzira yekudzivisa muganho wakaoma pakati peNorthern Ireland neIrish Republic.

May paakarasa sarudzo yeTurkey akati yaisazofambirana ne "mutemo wakazvimirira wekutengeserana". Asi uyu mubairo wakakosheswa weBrexiters hauzove wakakosha zvakadaro. Ongororo yehurumende yega yehupfumi hwehupenyu kunze kweEU kwakaratidza kushomeka kwehupfumi kubva kune zvitsva zvekutengeserana zvibvumirano nehupfumi kunze kweEurope. Kufungidzira mugwaro rakaburitswa muna Ndira kwakaratidza kuti chibvumirano neUnited States chaizopedzisira chasimudza GDP ne0.2% chete. Kuda "kuda" kutsvaga zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana mahara nedzimwe nyika dzakati wandei kusanganisira China neIndia kwaizosimudzira hupfumi nepakati pe0.1% ne0.4%. Zvakawanda zvakawanikwa zvakadaro hazvikonzeri kurasikirwa kwenguva refu kwe5 muzana muGDP kubva kuchibvumirano cheCanada-yemahara yekutengesa.

Kurova kwekugadzira kuchaitika kunyangwe chibvumirano chemahara senge cheCanada chinofanirwa kudzivirira mutero neEU. Chichakuvadza mafemu emaindasitiri kudzika kwezvipingaidzo zvisiri zvemitero, izvo zvino zvinonyanya kukosha kupfuura mitero. Chinonyanya kukosha pane iyi "mitemo yekwakabva" ichashanda mukutengeserana neEU kana Britain yabva mumubatanidzwa wetsika. Vanotengesera kunze kwenyika vekuBritain vachange vachiratidza kuti vari kutevedzera mitemo yezvemukati menyika iyi uye havasi kuita senzira dzekutengesa zvinhu kubva kunyika dziri pasi pemitero yeEU. Kuongorora kwetsika kuona kuti kutevedzerwa kunozokonzeresa kunonoka pabhodha.

Vagadziri vanonyanya kunetseka kune zvipingamupinyi zvakadaro zvisiri zvemitero chaizvo nekuti Britain yave yakabatanidzwa zvakanyanya muEU mushure memakore makumi mana nemashanu enhengo. Zvidyarwa muBritain zvinoumba chikamu cheEuropean supply cheni umo mafemu akadai sevagadziri vemotokari anoparadzira maitiro ekugadzira munyika dzese kuti awedzere kushanda zvakanaka. Zvakangodaro, iyo yenyika yekutengesa modhi iyo Brexiters inofunga yakapfuura yayo yekutengesa-nezuva.

Sarudzo yeTurkey - mubatanidzwa mutsva wetsika neEU - yaizogadzirisa mazhinji ematambudziko aya. Vatsoropodzi vanoratidza kuti Turkey haina kutaura muEU yekutengeserana mutemo. Uyezve, kana EU yasvika pachibvumirano chekutengeserana Turkey inofanirwa kugamuchira mazwi emusika wayo kunyangwe nyika iri kutaurwa haifanire kuita zvakafanana kuTurkey. Asi kusimba kwehupfumi hweBritain kunofanirwa kuita kuti zvikwanise kutaurirana hurongwa hwekuti inogona kushandisa simba rakawanda uchinakidzwa nekodzero dzekudzorera pamwe nezvisungo kubva kune chero chibvumirano chekutengeserana cheEU nedzimwe nyika.

Chimwe chakawedzerwa mugove ndechekuti mubatanidzwa wetsika waizorerutsa zvikuru nzira yekunzvenga muganho wakaoma weIrish kunyangwe zvichifanira kutsigirwa nezvisungo zvekuenzanisa mirau. EU yaramba mhinduro dzese dzeBritain dzemubvunzo uyu unonetsa. Pasina kubuda mumusangano muna Chikumi, uyo unofanirwa kuwana mhinduro, unogona kupera mukusawirirana. Izvi zvinozokanganisa mikana yekugadzira hurongwa hweremangwana reBritain rekutengeserana neEU pakupera kwaGumiguru.

Sarudzo yeTurkey yakaderera pakugara mumubatanidzwa wetsika senhengo yakazara yeEU. Haisi murapi-zvese kumatambudziko achakonzerwa nekubviswa kweBritain. Asi sekumira kwezvinhu ndiyo nzira inogoneka yekudzikisa ingangoita imwe yekuzvikuvadza kwehupfumi kunokonzerwa neBrexit.

Nezvomunyori

Paul Wallace munyori weLondon. Aimbove mupepeti weEuropean economics we The Economist, ndiye munyori we Iyo Euro Experiment, rakabudiswa neCambridge University Press.

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