Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia uye Eurasia Chirongwa, Chatham House
Mireza yeAmerica neRussia muHelsinki musi wa16 Chikunguru. Mufananidzo: Getty Images.

Mireza yeAmerica neRussia muHelsinki musi wa16 Chikunguru. Mufananidzo: Getty Images.
Musangano wakaitwa nemutungamiri wenyika VaDonald Trump naVaVladmir Putin wamutsa hasha, kunyara uye kunyara muAmerica. Asi pane zvinhu zviviri zvakakosha zvemusangano zviri kutariswa. Ivo ndevekuti, kutanga, chero munhu akashamiswa nekuda kwaTrump kugarisa Mutungamiri Putin anga asina kuterera; uye chechipiri, kuti zvose zvingave zvakatonyanya kuipa. Muchokwadi, zvese United States nevadyidzani vayo vekuEurope vanogona kunge vakasiya zvishoma.

Kusada kwaVaTrump kuona Russia semhandu izvo zvinoreva kuti kukuvadza kuUS kwakatoratidzwa pamberi pemusangano, pamwe nekusada kwake kugadzirisa hukasha hweRussia kuUS neshamwari dzayo uye vanodyidzana navo muEurope nekumwe. Asi musangano usina kutariswa wakatarisana naPutin, pasina mikana yekuti vamwe vakuru vakuru veUS vafukidze sarudzo, wakabata njodzi yemhedzisiro inokuvadza kupfuura kuramba kwaTrump pachake.

Pamusangano wapfuura naKim Jong-un wekuNorth Korea, VaDonald Trump vakatoratidza kuti vanoda kuita zvibvumirano zvechimbi chimbi izvo zvinokanganisa kuchengetedzeka kwevamwe vavo. Kuna Kim, VaTrump vakamisa mauto echiuto paKorea peninsula vasina kubvunza kana kuzivisa South Korea - danho rine mhedzisiro iri pachena uye yakadzama pakugadzirira mauto ikoko.

Paive nenjodzi huru yakasara kumidziyo yake, anogona kunge akanyengetedzwa naMutungamiri Putin kuti aite zvimwe chetezvo mumatunhu eBaltic nePoland, izvo zvingadai zvakamutsa dambudziko pakati peUnited States nevatsigiri vayo veNATO. Uye pamberi pemusangano waPutin, VaTrump vakatoratidza kushushikana pamusoro pemutengo wekuchengetedza mauto eUS kuGermany.

Tichifunga nezvehunhu hwaTrump hwekumhanyirira, uye nharo kubva kuPutin kuti kuvepo uku kuri kutyisidzira uye nekukanganisa, kuzvipira kamwe kamwe kuidzikisa kana kuibvisa zvachose kungadai kusingaite zvachose. Uye zvakadaro, kunze kwekunge VaTrump vakaita zvibvumirano kana vimbiso kuna Putin izvo hapana divi rati raburitsa, njodzi yeTrump nekuchimbidza kudhonza rug yeUS kubva pasi pechengetedzo yeEurope - ikozvino - yapfuura.

'Hapana ajenda'

Uyu waifanira kunge uri musangano usina agenda. Asi mashoko aPresident Putin haana kujekesa chete kuti Russia ine hurongwa hwayo, asi kuti dzimwe pfungwa dzaivepo pazviri dzakatenderanwa naVaTrump.

Imwe pfungwa yakadaro yaive 'boka repamusoro-soro' revatungamiriri veRussia neAmerica vanotungamira kukurukura kumwe kubatana. Sekureva kwaPutin, pfungwa iyi yakatsigirwa naTrump, kunyangwe zvisiri kunyatsojeka kuti izvi zvingaite sei nezvirango zvazvino zveUS kuRussia.

Pakazere, Mutungamiri Putin vakacherekedza 'chishuwo chakagovaniswa cheMutungamiri Trump neni pachangu kugadzirisa mamiriro asina kunaka muhukama hwenyika mbiri'. Izvi ndezvechokwadi: VaDonald Trump vakazvijekesa nguva zhinji zvekuti vanoshuvira kugadzirisa hukama neRussia uye kufuratira mapoinzi mazhinji emakakatanwa pakati penyika mbiri idzi, kwete kugumira pabasa reRussia mukusarudzwa kwake mutungamiri.

Nekudaro, VaTrump vaive vakagadzikana panguva yemusangano wevatori venhau pamusoro pezvematongerwo enyika eUS uye kushushikana kwake nekukunda kwake musarudzo zvekuti hapana kutaurwa nezvemapoinzi aPutin kana chero nyaya dzakakosha dzekuchengetedza dzaigona kunge dziri patafura.

Kudzokorora kasingaverengeki kuti pakanga pasina 'kurangana' - kunyangwe usiri iwo mubvunzo waakange abvunzwa - VaTrump vakatarisa kutsigira kuramba kweMutungamiri Putin kupindira kweRussia musarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika ya2016. Akakurudzirawo kuenzana kwehunhu pakati peRussia neUnited States, uye akati US ndiyo yaingove yekupomera hukama husina kunaka seRussia. Izvo pachazvo zvinoumba kukunda kukuru kwehunhu kweMutungamiri Putin, asi haisiriyo yakaipisisa mhedzisiro yemusangano wega pakati pevaviri.

Asi kurumbidza kwaTrump kwaPutin kwakatsigirawo zvimwe zvinhu pahurongwa hweRussia izvo zvaisafanirwa kusiiwa zvisina kupikiswa. Kutaura kwaPutin kwakaisa mhosva yekukonana muUkraine paUkraine pachayo, uye yakakumbira US kuti iwedzere simba kuKyiv.

Uye mumhinduro dzake kumibvunzo, akapa quid pro quo pakati pevaongorori veUS kuwana mukana kune vakuru veRussia vehungwaru vemauto vakapomedzerwa kupindira musarudzo dzemuna 2016 dzeUS uye Russia ikawana mukana kune muzvinabhizinesi uye anorwisa huwori Bill Browder. Zano rekupedzisira iri rakarumbidzwa naTrump se 'chipo chinoshamisa', zvichiratidza kusakoshesa zvachose zvinorehwa kana kutadza kuzvinzwisisa.

'Tichasangana zvakare'

Hapana mubvunzo kuti Mutungamiri Putin achange adzidza kubva pamukana wake wekuona Donald Trump ari pedyo. Asi izvi hazvigone kutungamira kune chero shanduko huru mumabatiro aanoita Trump pachake kana hukama neUnited States zvachose. Zvakanga zviri pachena kubva kumusangano wevatori venhau kuti Mutungamiri Putin havafanirwe kuve nehanya naTrump semhandu. Kwete chete kuti VaTrump vakatsigirana naPutin vachipokana nehurumende yake, asi akatadzawo kugadzirisa chero nyaya dzakakomba uye kusawirirana pakati penyika mbiri idzi. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti maitiro eRussia ekubata Trump ari pachinangwa.

Dambudziko raPutin chete nderekubatsira VaTrump mukuona kuti zvishuwo zvake zvikunde pamusoro pehutongi hwake hwose uye hurumende yeUnited States, iyo panzvimbo pekunamatira Putin inoziva dambudziko chairo rinounzwa neMoscow. Zvichakadaro, VaTrump vakavimbisa kusangana naPutin zvakare, 'kazhinji' - uye mumwe nemumwe wemisangano iyi une dambudziko ringaite rekuchengetedzeka kweUnited States neEurope.