Dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika? Dambudziko rebhangi? Vanodyara mari vanotenga #eurozone chikwereti zvakadaro

Kuda kusingadzoreki kwemari yakagadziriswa kwakasundira goho, muEurope zvirinani, kusvika padanho rekuti vatengesi havachasiyanise zvisungo zveimwe nyika kubva kune imwe - zvinogona kuchengetedza dambudziko rekuti kana tarisiro yadzokera kune vatyairi vehupfumi kumashure kwemitengo yekukwereta, akanyora Dhara Ranasinghe.

Kutemerwa kwechikwereti chenyika, njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika uye mashandiro emari nehupfumi zvakasendekwa parutivi sezvo kuvhimwa kwepasi rose kwegoho kwawedzera kubva Britain yakavhotera kubuda muEuropean Union mureferendamu yaChikumi. Mhedzisiro yacho yakasvibisa maonero ekukura kweEurope uye zvakakonzera kudzikiswa kwemari kubva kumabhanga makuru.

Kuratidzira kukanganiswa kwegoho, mabhondi ehurumende yeSpain ane makore gumi akaderera akabatana nevezera ravo repamusoro-soro muFrance, Belgium neFinland vaine goho rakaderera pasi pe10 muzana.

Izvo zvakasundidzira goho pamusoro pepamusoro-yakatemerwa zvisungo zveGerman kusvika kungopfuura zana bps - mazinga ayo munguva yakapfuura asina kutsigirwa kwenguva yakareba.

MuItari, iyo ine kiredhiti yakaderera kupfuura Germany neFrance, goho remakore gumi rinongopfuura 10 muzana uye pamwero vamwe vatariri vehomwe vanotenda kuti hazviratidzi matambudziko emabhanga kana kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika kwakabatana nereferendamu iri kuuya.

"Hapasisina rusarura pakati pemadzishe," akadaro Frederik Ducrozet, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuEurope kuPictet Wealth Management. "Iyo nzira inogona kuitika yenjodzi kana uye kana izvo zvisungo zvadzokororwa."

IEuropean Central Bank's € 1.74 trillion asset-purchase scheme inopa yakasimba buffer kumabhondi ematunhu uye yakaita kuti isanyanya kutarisisa kune-chaiwo nyika.

Asi vanoisa mari havana kudzivirirwa zvachose kubva mukushanduka kwemisikanzwa kana kukonzeresa kutengesa kwakawanda kunogona kuona nhengo dzisina simba dzebloc dzichitakura mutoro wekutengesa.

Vaongorori vanonongedza kune gore rakapera risingatarisirwe bond rout, rakakonzerwa nekutora-inflation semuenzaniso. Nepo goho reGerman Bund rakakwira kusvika 100 bps pakati paKubvumbi naChikumi gore rapfuura, goho reSpain neItalian rakakwira kupfuura 120 bps imwe neimwe.

Kutengeswa kwemabhondi echiPutukezi neChipiri mushure mekunge sangano reDBRS rakati kudzvanyirirwa kuri kuwedzera kukweretwa kwenyika yePortugal zvakare chiyeuchidzo chekuti goho rinokurumidza sei kukwira kana pfungwa dzadzokera kumatambudziko epamba.

Zvinogona kukonzeresa kuongororwazve kwemusika wemabhondi zvinogona kubva kudhata rehupfumi kana kunze kweEurope kana kutaura nezveimwe mubereko weUS kukwira kunowanikwa pasi, vaongorori vakadaro.

"Mumamiriro ezvinhu ehuwandu hwehuwandu hwekudhonza-kumashure mune zvisungo zvehurumende zvinobereka, zvisungo zvine ngozi inonyanya kufungidzirwa zvingangoita zvakanyanya. Izvi ndizvo zvatakaona muna March-June gore rapera, "akadaro Antoine Bouvet, rates Strategist. kuMizuho International.

"Panyaya yekutenderera, parizvino kune njodzi dzakakwana kunyika idzo kutarisira kuti kupararira kuchawedzera mukutengesa kwakazara."

Mumwe mukuru weFederal Reserve akati neChipiri panogona kunge paine kukwidzwa kwemitengo miviri gore idzva risati rasvika, uye mumwe akati danho rinogona kuuya nekukurumidza mwedzi unouya.

Sezvinoratidzwa nemifananidzo iyi, kubva Britain yakavhota muna Chikumi kuti ibude muEuropean Union, goho muEurope yose yakaderera zvakanyanya kuti ive pedyo nepedyo.

Nezvikwereti zvinodarika zviuru gumi nezvitatu zvemadhora zvehurumende nemakambani zvakakohwa pasi rose munzvimbo dzisina kunaka, vanoisa mari vakasundirwa kutsvaga madzoro akakwira muchikwereti chenguva refu, mabhondi akaderera uye chikwereti chemusika chiri kubuda.

Rubatsiro irworwo runotsanangura kuti sei goho pamabhondi eSpanish neItaliya zvakaderera pane izvo zviri pabenchmark US 10-year Treasuries, inomira pa1.58%.

Kuna Oksana Aronov weJPM Income Opportunity Fund, kumashure kwegoho rakashata ndicho chimwe chikonzero nei mabhondi aita kushomeka kune "zvakakosha" - masimba ehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika anowanzo konzera mutengo webhondi.

"Mabhondi agara achishanda sechitsigiro mune inochengetedza portfolio, "yakachengeteka-nzvimbo" midziyo ine chikamu chemari chakagadzirirwa kuburitsa nzira yekudzoka isingachinji," akadaro mune chinyorwa.

Tichifunga nezvekukwira kwechikwereti chisina kubereka, "zvisungo zviri kuramba zvichimira kutengeserana zvichibva pane zvakakosha, zvakaita segoho, uye kutengeserana pane izvo mumwe munhu angave achida kuvabhadhara mune ramangwana," Aronov akawedzera.

Nemusiyano mudiki mugoho pakati pevabudisi vekuEurope, zvakatonyanya kukosha kuita "yakakosha ongororo" nekuti kutora panjodzi yakawedzerwa hakubhadharwe negoho repamusoro, akadaro David Zahn, mukuru weEuropean fixed income kuFranklin Templeton Fixed Income Group. .

"Izvo zvingava zvakanaka kwemwedzi mitanhatu kusvika gumi nemiviri inotevera asi rimwe zuva zvakakosha zvinogona kudzoka uye unogona kuona kudzoreredzwa kwemitengo."