Mhinduro: Ndeipi nguva yakakodzera yekutaurirana neRussia pamusoro peUkraine?

By Rt Hon Sir Roderi Lyne (kufananidzwa) Mutevedzeri waSachigaro, Chatham House; Adviser, Russia uye Eurasia Chirongwa, Chatham HouseMaDiplomats aripo kuitira kutaurirana. The Churchillian akaona kuti 'kuva neshaya nguva dzose zviri nani pane kurwa hondo' iri muDNA yavo. Asi nhaurirano inobudirira chete kana nguva nemamiriro acho ezvinhu zvakanaka. Pakupera kwegakava remuGeorgia ra2008 Mutungamiri Nicolas Sarkozy akamhanyira munhaurirano dzisina kugadzikana, mhedzisiro yacho yakabvumidza kuenderera mberi kweRussia kutora nzvimbo dzeGeorgia.

Kukanganisa uku hakufanirwe kudzokororwa zvichitevera zviitiko zvichangobva kuitika muCrimea. Ino ingave nguva isiriyo yekutaurirana neRussia pamusoro peUkraine - kunyanya kana zvaireva, sezvazvingangoita, kutaurirana pamusoro pemisoro yeUkraine. Mbiriso inoda kupihwa nguva yekushanda.

Mumikoto yeBrussels, vamwe vari kupokana kuti EU inofanirwa kutumira vamiriri kuMoscow kuti vabvise njodzi yekuwedzera. Ngozi yacho pasina mubvunzo iripo. Mutungamiri Vladimir Putin vari kutamba mutambo une njodzi webrinksmanship.

Asi funga nezve chinzvimbo chaPutin. Ari kufara mukukudzwa kwevanhu vake. Akasimuka kuMadokero uye akaruramisa izvo zvakaonekwa nevakawanda vekuRussia sechikanganiso chenhoroondo - kurasikirwa kweCrimea yavo 'isingagoneki'. Akabvisa pfungwa kubva kuhupfumi huri kuderera uye kusatarisira kwake Russia. Vanhu vari mumigwagwa vachipemberera pasi pemureza weRussia, kwete pasi pezvikwangwani vachinyunyuta nezvehuwori uye mabasa asina kunaka everuzhinji.

Putin ane Ukraine pasi pekumanikidzwa uye nekutyisidzirwa. Ane mauto pamuganhu, uye akazvipa mvumo yekuaendesa kuUkraine ndima. Agitators anokurudzirwa kana kutumirwa neRussia ari kukanganisa maguta ekumabvazuva eUkraine, akadai seKharkiv neDonetsk. Russia iri kudzvanya hupfumi hweUkraine, ichikwidza mitengo yegasi uye ichida kubhadharwa kwezvikwereti. Hurumende yenguva isina kusimba muKyiv iri kunetsekana nayo.

Putin akazivisa kuti haadi kupinda nechisimba kumabvazuva kweUkraine (ikozvino minus Crimea). Ari kuisa mungozi yokuti zviitiko zvinotsamwiswa nevapanduki vasingadzoreki kubva kune rimwe divi kana rimwe zvingamuisa pasi pedzvinyiriro yokuti 'adzivirire' vanhu vokuUkraine vanotaura mutauro wokuRussia; asi kugadzira chikonzero chekupinda nechisimba hakuratidzike senge sarudzo inoyevedza kwaari. Mamwe emauto eUkraine anga achichera mukati pamwe nemuganho angangodzosera kumashure.

Hondo yehama, zvisinei, ipfupi, nehama dzechiSlavic muUkraine yaizotamba zvishoma mumigwagwa yeNizhny Novgorod kana Novosibirsk kupfuura kupandukira kusina ropa muCrimea. Vashoma vekuUkraine vangagamuchira mauto eRussia sevasununguri. Avo vakagara vachitsvaga hukama hwakanaka neRussia, vaimbova Mutungamiri Leonid Kuchma naLeonid Kravchuk pakati pavo, vakanyatsobatanidzwa nehutongi hweUkraine: havadi kutongwa zvakare kubva kuMoscow. Uye, mushure mekutora matunhu eUkraine, Putin aizoitei zvinotevera? Zvingave mutoro wakakura kuhurumende yeRussia iyo isiri pfupi kune dzimwe.

Nepo kurwisa kweRussia kumabvazuva kweUkraine hakugone kusarudzika, Putin anofanira kuverenga kuti ingave yakashata uye ine njodzi sarudzo. Anoziva zvakare kuti zvinokonzeresa zvakadzika zvirango zvekuMadokero, izvo zvaizorova chitsitsinho chake Achilles - kuderera kwehupfumi hweRussia, husina kuvandudzwa. Mumashure mepfungwa dzake pachava nendangariro dzekudzingwa kwePolitburo kwaNikita Khrushchev mushure mekutadza kunonyadzisa kwepamusoro-soro adventurism pamusoro peCuba. Zvirinani kuti Putin achengetedze kuwedzera kwekutyisidzira pane kuisa pangozi kuishandisa.

Kuonekwa kwenhume dzeEU muKremlin, vachiteterera naPutin kuti abve kumashure kwevaUkraine, zvingaite mutsauko pakuverenga kwake? Kana, zvisinei nekuderera, Putin akatsunga kuwedzera kukwira, zvikumbiro zveEurope zvaisazomumisa. Nhume dzacho dzaizongopinda munjodzi yekugamuchira ultimatum panzvimbo.

IUS neEU vaive chokwadi kuyedza kutaurirana naPutin vasati vatorwa kweCrimea. Kudai akanga achida kutaurirana, paigona kuva nomugumisiro unogamuchirika uye une rugare. Akanga asingadi. Akafumura kurwisa kwenhema kune vateereri vake vepamba, zvinobudirira zvekuti kunyangwe vanhu vemuMoscow vaifanira kunge vakaziva zviri nani vaitaura neni svondo rapfuura nezve 'pogroms' muUkraine uye 'nyika yakakundikana inotungamirwa nemafascist'.

Putin akasimudza tarisiro uye revanchist euphoria kusvika paakanga azvipinza mukati. Chero chimwe chinhu kunze kwekutorwa kweCrimea chingadai chakaita sekukundwa. Sezvineiwo, akangwarira kuti asasimudza tarisiro yekuwedzera kuwedzera (kunyangwe Mutevedzeri weMutungamiriri weNyika Dmitry Rogozin, pakati pevamwe, akatanga kutaura nezvekuchinja mamiriro eiyo yakaputsika Transnistrian 'republic' muMoldova).

Zvingave zviri nani zvakadaro dai foramu inoshanda yagadzirwa kuti igadzirise kusawirirana uye njodzi dzekusagadzikana dziri padivi pemitsetse yakasiiwa nekuiswa kweyaimbova Soviet Union, pamwe kuburikidza nepamusoro-level shanduro yeOSCE. Dambudziko reUkraine, zvichitevera kurwisana kwakaitika muGeorgia makore matanhatu apfuura, harisi rekupedzisira rekudengenyeka kwenyika kwa1991 kukanganisa Europe. EU ingadai yakataurirana mwedzi nemakore apfuura kuti ingadzivirira sei Ukraine kuita kurwisana kwemaoko pakati peRussia neWest. Kana dambudziko rikapera, rinofanirwa kufunga zvakadzama nezve magadzirirwo ekutanga anotevera; asi handizvo zvazvino.

Putin aizogashira chero basa rekutaurirana reEU nekutanga kuudza kuti Crimea yainge yabuda muhurongwa, uye kuti aive neRussia yese kumashure kwake. Nhume dzeEurope dzaizotaura zvishoma pamusoro pekusazivikanwa vonyarara. Nekunzwa kuri kuwedzera, mutungamiri wenyika aizodzokorora kutaura kwake muKremlin musi wa18 Kurume, achitsanangura kodzero nezvichemo zveRussia - zvimwe zvechokwadi, zvimwe zvinofungirwa, zvese zvakanyanyisa. Nekupusa uye kushinga, aiseka zvirango zvekuMadokero. PaUkraine, airamba achityisidzira, achizvidza hurumende yenguva pfupi uye achipisa maEuropean spines neyambiro yebasa rake kuchengetedza madzinza eRussia anotambura.

Ipapo Putin aizonyora zvaaida. Izvi zvakatoratidzwa nehurumende yeRussia. Kutanga, kuti Russia haizoziva kana kutaurirana nehurumende yenguva pfupi yakaguma nekudzingwa kwaViktor Yanukovych. EU inofanira kudzokera kuchibvumirano che21 Kukadzi chakasainwa pakati peYanukovych nevanopikisa uye chakanyorwa neEU, kana kune imwe shanduro yakagadziridzwa (kubvisa mutungamiri akadzingwa) kupa hutongi hunogamuchirwa neRussia. Chechipiri, kuti Ukraine inofanira kuziviswa isina kwayakarerekera. Mukana wekujoinha NATO kana EU unofanirwa kubviswa. Hukama neEU haufanirwe kuvandudzwa nenzira isingabatanidzi Russia. Chechitatu, kuti (muBazi Rezvekune dzimwe nyika' mashoko) 'paramende yeUkraine inofanira pasina kunonoka kudaidza gungano rebumbiro', kureva kuti bumbiro reUkraine rinofanira kunyorwa patsva kuti rigadzire nyika yemubatanidzwa inobvumira kuzvitonga kuzere kumatunhu ayo. Pakupedzisira, Putin aizoshuvira EU zvakanaka mubasa riri pedyo-risingaite rekuedza kudzikamisa Ukraine.

Saka chii chaigona kuitwa nevamiriri veEU kana vatarisana neizvi? Vanofanira kufamba pakati peKyiv neMoscow kubatsira kumanikidza diktat yeKremlin paUkraine - kana kuenda kumba nemiswe pakati pemakumbo avo?

Uye, kana ikozvino isiri nguva yekutaurirana neRussia, chii zvino?

EU neUnited States dzakazvipira kutsigira hutongi hweUkraine. Ndiwo unofanira kuva musimboti wegwara ravo.

Nenguva pfupi, izvi zvinoreva kubatsira hurumende yenguva pfupi kuti imirisane nekutyisidzirwa neRussia, kuita hutongi hwakasimba (kusanganisira pamusoro peUkraine ivo vega vekupedzisira-nyika) uye kutungamira nyika kuenda uye kuburikidza nesarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika yaMay 25. Izvi zvinoreva zvakare kusimbisa mari yeUkraine. Zvinoda chiyero chakayerwa asi chakasimba chakanangana neKremlin, kwete kuratidza kushaya simba kana kusabatana.

Kwenguva yakareba, nyika dzekuMadokero dzinoda kubatsira Ukraine mubasa rinotyisa rekuvaka kubvumirana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye nyika yakasimba; pamwe chete nekuvandudza bumbiro remitemo; yekuderedza simba re oligarchs; yekuvandudza hutongi hwemutemo; uye nekugadzira hupfumi hunoshanda. Zvose izvi munyika ine mamiriyoni 45 evanhu: Ukraine haisi Kosovo. Kunyora macheki hakuna kukwana. Kana Ukraine ichizobudirira, inoda kuzvipira kukuru kwekuMadokero kwevanhu pamwe chete nemari zviwanikwa mumakore gumi, pamwe kuburikidza neimwe nzira yeboka rebasa pasi pehutungamiriri hwepamusoro. Kana Madokero asina kugadzirira kuita kuzvipira ikoko, haifanire kunge yakapinda zvakanyanya muUkraine pakutanga.

Nguva yekutaura neMoscow ichauya, asi chete kana kutyisidzira kwekukurumidza kwakatarisana uye hurumende itsva yeUkraine iripo - hurumende inozivikanwa neRussia uye inotora zvisarudzo zvayo. Ukraine inofanirwa kunge iri kutungamira, neEU neUS vachitsigira, kwete neimwe nzira. Panguva iyoyo Kremlin inenge yave nenguva yekuita ongororo yakanyanyisa yemhedzisiro yemaitiro ayo achangoburwa. Kubatana kweRussia neUkraine - kutengeserana, kudyara mari, dandemutande revanhu, mhuri, tsika nemagariro zvinongedzo - hazvitendedzi chishuwo cheKremlin chekudzikamisa hutongi hweUkraine, asi inofanirwa kuverengerwa. Kugadzikana mune ramangwana uye kubudirira kweUkraine kunoda hukama hwakabatana neRussia, ine miganhu yakavhurika kuvanhu nekutengeserana, pamwe nevavakidzani vayo veEU. Kune rimwe divi kuti risvike izvi se zero-sum mubvunzo inzira yedambudziko risingaperi.

Chero bedzi mamiriro ezvinhu aripo achienderera mberi, Ukraine inorasikirwa, Russia inorasikirwa (mukati meUkraine uye muhukama hwayo neWest) uye West inorasikirwa. Kurasikirwa, kurasikirwa, kurasikirwa kunogona kupedzisira kwave kuhwina, kuhwina, kuhwina - asi zvinotora nguva, hungwaru uye kushanda nesimba. Hapana mashiripiti wand.

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