Mafungiro: Dambudziko reUkraine rinoratidza gaka rakakosha mukuchengetedzeka kweEurope

By The Rt Hon Sir Roderic Lyne (kufananidzwa), Mutevedzeri wasachigaro, Chatham House; Adviser, Russia uye Eurasia ChirongwaNdakambopinzwa mhosva naSergey Lavrov, gurukota rezvekunze kweRussia, nekutsanangura nyika dziri pakati peRussia neEU - Ukraine nedzimwe nyika dzepashure peSoviet kuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba - se'arc yekusagadzikana'. Kunetsana kwazvino muUkraine, pamwe chete nemakakatanwa asina kugadziriswa uye kusawirirana kuri kuramba kuchiitika kubva kuBelarus kudzika nemuMoldova uye mhiri kweCaucasus, kunotsikisa njodzi dzakavanzika dzekugadzikana kweEurope muarc iyi. Madokero ane njodzi yekubhadhara mutengo wakakwira wekuregeredza.

Chero zvingave zvenguva pfupi mhedzisiro yedambudziko reUkraine - uye pane zvakawanda zvakasiyana munguva kusvika kusarudzo dzakarongwa muna Chivabvu 25 - mhinduro yekusingaperi haisi mukuona. Ukraine haisi 'mubairo' wekuhwinwa kana kurasikirwa neRussia kana EU. Ukraine, mumamiriro ayo azvino, imhosva, sezvakaratidzwa nemitengo yebhail-out, mamwe mabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu emadhora kubva kuIMF. Iri idambudziko iro mhinduro yekusingaperi inofanira kubva mukati menyika, asi iyo inodawo kubatana kwakasimba kweRussia neWest.

Makumi maviri emakore akapambadzwa muUkraine. Mufaro wokuzvitonga hauna kuteverwa nechishuvo chokuvandudza upfumi hwemazuva ano kana kuti nyika yakarurama. Nyika ingangobudirira yave kutungamirwa zvisizvo nehutongi hwemhando dzakasiyana zvekuti hupfumi hweUkraine hwave huchidzikira muCentral neEastern Europe, huchidzokera kumashure kweRussia, kunyangwe kuseri kweBelarus, uye kuseri kwePoland.

Pasinei neizvozvo, kudzoserwa kutonga neMoscow hakuna zvinokwezva. Hutano hwemunhu neRussia hwakasiyana-siyana, kutengeserana neRussia ndizvo zvakajairwa, mari yeRussia muUkraine - mumabhangi, nharembozha, zviwanikwa, indasitiri inorema - yakakura uye muganho une runyararo uye wakavhurika unodiwa zvakanyanya. Asi, kune ruzhinji rwevaUkraine, kusanganisira vagari vekuRussia-vatauri, hutongi hwenyika hwakakunda zvakaoma haufanirwe kupihwa.

Zvaishamisa kuti musi wa26 Kukadzi vatungamiri vaviri vekutanga veUkraine, Leonid Kravchuk naLeonid Kuchma, avo vaiva nehukama hwakanaka neMoscow, vakabatana naViktor Yushchenko mukuda kugumisa kupindira kweRussia muCrimea. Zviremera zveRussia, zvakakuvara uye zvakashatirwa, zviri kupuruzira sabers avo. Vanofanira kumbomira kuti vafunge uye vayeuke zvimwe zvezvidzidzo zvekare. Dai Russia yaimanikidza kutyora hutongi hweUkraine, mhedzisiro yeRussia pachayo yaizorwadza kwazvo: kutyora kuri pachena kwemutemo wepasi rose, kuparadzaniswa kwakadzama kubva kuMadokero uye hukama nemuvakidzani wavo mukuru wepashure peSoviet izvo, nekufamba kwenguva, zvaizoratidza kuti hazvigoneke. . Izvi zvaizonetesa, kwete kusimbisa, Russia.

KuMadokero, zvidzidzo zviviri zvinoda kudzidzwa. Chekutanga ndechekuti Ukraine inoda rudo rwakaoma. Iko hakuna chikonzero chekudira mari muUkraine kunze kwekunge mamiriro akasimba akaiswa. Izvi zvaizoita kuti makumi emakore araswe. Ukraine inoda hurongwa hwakakodzera hwekutonga uye masangano akasimba zvakakwana kuti abvise huwori uye nekupa hutongi hwakanaka uye hwakaenzana. Hutungamiri hutsva muKyiv huchada kuvaka kubvumirana kwenyika uko kunobatanidza kumabvazuva nekumadokero, uye kunobata zvakasimba nezvinhu zvinopfurikidza mwero zvakaonekwa kumativi ose ezvivharidzo. Aya mameseji anofanirwa kusimbiswa nekutariswa kwakanyanya kwepamusoro-soro kubva kunhengo dzeEU kupfuura nanhasi. Ndichiri kubhururuka kupinda nekubuda muMoscow mumakore apfuura, vatungamiriri vazhinji veEurope vanga vachionekwa nekusavapo kwavo kuKyiv.

Kana dambudziko repakarepo radzikira, yave nguva yekuti vatungamiriri vekuMadokero vafunge zvakanyanya kune yakafara nyaya yekuchengetedzeka nekugadzikana kweEurope. Ino haisi nguva yekupedzisira iyo mushure mekudengenyeka kweUSSR kunokonzera kudedera muEurope yose. Iyo 'arc yekusagadzikana' icharamba iripo kune chimwe chizvarwa.

Pane gomba riri muEurope kuchengetedza zvivakwa: hapana foramu yekutaurirana zvinyararire mhinduro dzenyaya dzisati dzawira pamusoro, kana kugadzirisa nyaya pamwe chete kana vaita. Izvo zvese kune zvakanaka kuti vatungamiriri veEurope vanga vari parunhare kuna Vladimir Putin mumazuva achangopfuura, asi hazvina kukwana. Kana dambudziko iri richigona kugadziriswa pasina kukanganisa kwakakosha, nzira dzinofanirwa kuwanikwa dzekubvisa imwe inotevera; yekugonesa mapato ese anofarira kukakavara mutsauko wavo vari vega pane kusheedzera mameseji ekutyisidzira kuburikidza nema megaphone.

Kwemakore vanhu vokuRussia vakanyunyuta kuti vakabviswa mugadziriro dzechengeteko dzeEurope. Vane poindi, asi iri zvakare inoshanda kune dzimwe nyika dzepost-Soviet. Zvishuviro zveEU neNATO muma1990 zvekuvaka hukama hwehukama neRussia zvakaratidza kuve zvisingagoneke. IRussia-NATO Council yakave nemigumisiro ine mwero inobatsira, asi izvi hazvichinje chokwadi chekuti NATO mubatanidzwa wemauto, kwete foramu yekuchengetedza, uye haisanganisire Ukraine. Iyo OSCE inosanganisira nyika dzese dzakakodzera, kusanganisira iyo US, uye muchirevo vanogona kunge vakazadza basa. Asi yave nemakore yakatsauswa kuzvinhu zvechitatu-odha uye zvakanyanya kukanganwika.

Kusvika pari zvino, hurumende dzekuMadokero, pasina chikonzero, dzanga dzichipokana nezvezvirongwa zvekuchengetedza zveRussia, senge zvakaiswa pamberi nemutungamiri wenguva iyoyo Dimitry Medvedev mushure mekupokana kweGeorgia. Zvikumbiro zvacho zvaive zvisina kujeka, uye zvainzwika zvakanyanya sekuyedza kudzikamisa hutongi hwematunhu madiki nekutaurirana pamusoro pemisoro yavo. Icho hachisi chikonzero chakanaka chekuti nyika dzekuMadokero dzikundikane kuita nyaya nekuisa pfungwa dzayo.

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