Mumakore matatu, marori emagetsi achange ari sarudzo yakachipa pane dhiziri - Cambridge Econometrics analysis

Chidzidzo chitsva chinoona zvakaomesesa EU emission tarisiro inodiwa kuti decarbonise
kutakura zvinhu mumigwagwa panosvika 2050.

*Mutengo wose wekutenga nekuchengetedza marori emagetsi muEurope uchave
yakaderera ne2025, uye hydrogen-powered mafuta emotokari marori panosvika 2030, pane kushandisa
mota dzechinyakare dzedhiziri, maererano neongororo yazvino na
Cambridge Econometrics, uchishandisa nhamba dzeItari, Poland neSpain. Izvi zvinogona
kubatsira kune zvese kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvemamiriro ekunze zvechikamu uye kugadzira
simba rekuzvimirira kubva kuRussia fossil fuels. Magadzirirwo ezvivakwa
zvichadikanwa kuita shanduko.

Mukutevedzana kwezvidzidzo zvitatu pa Itari,  Poland neSpain,  ongororo yekuongorora Cambridge Econometrics ichangobva kuongorora kuti izere sei
Kabhoni-yemahara kushanda inogona kuwanikwa mukutakura zvinhu - chikamu
iyo inoverengera ingangoita 7% yepasi rose CO2 emissions. The European
Komisheni yazvino REPowerEU package, iyo, nekuda kwekupinda kweRussia
yeUkraine, ine chinangwa chekuita kuti Europe ive yakasununguka kubva kuRussia fossil mafuta zvakanaka
2030 isati yasvika, inowedzera kukosha kune musoro wetsvagurudzo. Chikamu che
shanduko kuenda kune net zero mukutakura zvinhu zvinogona kusanganisira kudzikisira
kuvimba nemafuta nekutsiva marori edhiziri.

Yakatumirwa neEuropean Climate Foundation, ongororo yakaongorora
mikana yekushandiswa kwetekinoroji inodiwa kuti uwane iyo
zvibodzwa zvemamiriro ekunze zvakavakirwa pakuenzanisa marori ezvikepe zveItaly, Poland uye
Spain, ine zvakati wandei zvakawanikwa zvinoshandawo kuCentral neEastern
Europe, uko Cambridge Econometrics inewo hofisi, muBudapest.

Kuti uwane zvinangwa zvezvakatipoteredza zvakatemwa neEU, vagadziri vanofanirwa kudzikisa
CO2 emissions kubva kumarori matsva ne15% ne2025 zvichienzaniswa ne2019-2020 mazinga
uye ne30% panosvika 2030. Zvinangwa zveEU zvinoshanda kumotokari nyowani chete, zvichiratidza
kuti kuburitswa kwezvikepe kunenge kuchidzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, semarori anoshandiswa
ichiri kushandiswa mungarava mushure mezuva iroro. Izvi zvinotarisirwa kunyanya
munyika dzeCentral neEastern Europe uko chikamu chemarori akashandiswa
inowanzokwira muzvikwata zvezvikepe.

Zvinoenderana neCambridge Econometrics modelling, nekuda kwezvikepe izvi
mhedzisiro, kuburitsa kwakazara muchikamu kwaizongodzikira ne28% muPoland
uye ne31% muItari neSpain ne2050, kana zvinangwa zvekudzikisa emission ye
15% uye 30% inoteverwa. Uyezve, kunyangwe kutengeswa kwemarori matsva asiri zero
dzakarambidzwa zvachose kubva muna 2040, chikamu ichi chaisazoshanda
Kabhoni-isina muna 2050: emissions yaizoramba iine chikamu chechishanu che2021 mazinga
muNyika dzekuMabvazuva, uye yakapoteredza 6 muzana yezvino CO2 emissions
ichiri kuburitswa mumigwagwa yeItaly neSpanish kana ichienzaniswa nezvavakatarirwa
net zero levels.

“*Zvinangwa zvinodzikisirwa zvinobuda zvinogona kuwanikwa nenzira dzinoverengeka: by
kuwedzera kushanda kwemotokari dziripo dzedhiziri, nekuwedzera
mugove webiofuel uye nekuparadzira motokari dzinobudisa zero,” akadaro Dóra
Fazekas, director weCambridge Econometrics 'Budapest office. *Magetsi uye
marori anofambiswa nehydrogen anoshanda zvakanyanya; vane simba rakaderera
zvinodiwa. Nekudaro, kuti ivo vapararire, zvakakoshawo kuvaka
zvivakwa zvakafanira, zvakasiyana paruzivo rwega rwega.”

Imwe mukana wemarori emagetsi uye hydrogen-powered ndeyekuti kwete chete
vane zero yakananga emissions here, asi vane huwandu hwakaderera
utsi kupfuura mota dzakajairwa, tichifunga nezvehutsi husina kunanga
zvinoenderana nekugadzirwa kwemagetsi nehydrogen.

*Inotarisirwa mutengo wehupenyu hwemotokari dzinorema dzekutakura (Italy, Poland uye
Speini)*

*Mapfupiso**: ICE: Internal Combustion Engine; BEV: Bhatiri Magetsi
Vehicle; BEV-ERS: Battery Electric Vehicle-Electric Road System; FCEV: Mafuta
Cell Electric Vehicle*

*Cherechedza**: Yakavanzika zvivakwa zvinoreva mutengo wekuiswa kwakadai se
magetsi ekuchaja zviteshi mumatura uye logistics nzvimbo, apo
zvivakwa zveveruzhinji zvinosanganisira kuvakwa kwehydrogen / magetsi
zviteshi zvekuchaja uye tambo dzemagetsi dziri pamusoro pedyo nemigwagwa, semuenzaniso.

EU nguva pfupi yadarika yakaratidza Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation  (AFIR
<https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/20211004_AFIR_Briefing.pdf>)
zvikumbiro zvinovavarira kupa zvivakwa zvakaringana zvemagetsi uye
hydrogen-powered marori munzira huru dzeEurope (TEN-T network

Zvinoenderana nezvikumbiro, kune akazara emagetsi marori (bhatiri remagetsi
mota - BEV), majaja anofanirwa kuvakwa kunzvimbo dzekutakura zvinhu uye madhipatimendi,
uye machaja anokurumidza mumigwagwa mikuru. Nepo kuchaja kunowanzotora nguva yakareba
pane kuwedzera refuelling, ane masaizi akakwana emabhatiri ekuchaja anogona kubatanidzwa
nguva dzinosungirwa kuzorora dzevatyairi. Marori emagetsi ane
pantographs (BEV-ERS) ane mabhatiri madiki pane maBEV, asi, senge
njanji, dzakabatana netambo yemagetsi yepamusoro ine pantograph,
uye vanogona kuchaja panhunzi. Zvechokwadi, izvi zvinoda hukuru
kuvandudzwa kwezvivakwa - muenzaniso chikamu chemagetsi motaway
parizvino iri kuedzwa pedyo neFrankfurt.

Kuparadzira kushandiswa kwemafuta-sero mota (FCEV), kuvaka network ye
zviteshi zvekuchaja zvichave zvakakosha, sezvazvakaita nemarori emagetsi ebhatiri.
Hydrogen yaigona kugadzirwa munharaunda munzvimbo dzekuchaja, uchishandisa
electrolysis, kana kutakurwa ikoko kuburikidza newaya kana marori emafuta kubva ku
central production unit.

Kudzidza kweCambridge Econometrics kunoratidzawo kuti mutengo wakazara we
muridzi (TCO) - kusanganisira kutenga, kugadzirisa uye kushanda - kwe
marori emagetsi nemavhani zvichange zvakaderera pane izvo zvekupisa kwemukati
marori einjini na2025, kana mukati memakore matatu chete. Nepo kutenga kwavo
mutengo unogona kuramba wakakwirira, kushanda zvakanaka uye kuderera kwemafuta emafuta uye
mari yebasa ichaita kuti zero-emission marori adhure kushandisa pane
motokari dzechivanhu.

Mutengo wekugadzira hydrogen unotarisirwa kudonha zvakanyanya mukuuya
makore nekuda kwekupararira mukushandiswa kwavo, kugadzira mafuta esero anorema zvinhu mota
zvakachipa kuva muridzi uye kushanda pane emukati combustion marori panosvika 2030. In
uyezve, mutengo wemafuta emotokari dzedhiziri muEurope ungangowedzera
yakawedzera kana zvazvino mutero zvakanakira munyika dzinoverengeka zvakabviswa.
Pasi peEU itsva "Eurovignette <https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/614625/EPRS_BRI(2017)614625_EN.pdf>”   directive, ma toll mumigwagwa yeEurope achaenderanawo nekubuda kwemota,
izvo zvichawedzera kuwedzera mari yekushanda mukati mekupisa
marori. Mutengo wemafuta efossil unotarisirwawo kukwira kana muEurope
Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) ichawedzerwa kutakura uye
zvivakwa muna 2025.

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