Powering Europe: Remangwana reEuropean Energy post-Ukraine Hondo

Vhiki rino muBrussels, Nhengo dzeParamende nenyanzvi vakabatana kuBrussels Press Club kutora chikamu mumusangano wepasi rose wehybrid wekuzeya zano resimba reEurope, panguva uye mushure meHondo yeUkraine - nyora Tori Macdonald.

Kubva Russia yakapinda muUkraine Kukadzi wapfuura, kushushikana kukuru kwave kukura kutenderedza remangwana resimba redzimba nemabhizinesi pasi rese sezvo nyika zhinji dzichivimba neRussia seyakakosha simba sosi, kunyanya muoiri negesi. Zvinonyanya kukosha, EU, uko 40% yezvigadzirwa zvegasi zvakatengeswa kubva kunze kwenyika zvakabva kuRussia muna 2021. (1) Kuenderera mberi kwehondo kwakakonzera mhinduro yakawanda kubva kunyika huru dzeEU nekuda kwekukundikana kwaPutin kuedza kushandisa zvombo. Kudzokera shure kwave kuri pamusoro pekushomeka kwakabatana simba zano reEU kuenda kumberi.

Hondo yakavheneka pamusoro pemitemo yakawanda inopokana iripo muEU maererano nemasimba emagetsi akadai seoiri, marasha, simba renyukireya, uye zvinogadzirwazve.

Mapaneli maviri enyanzvi dzesimba uye vamiriri veParamende yeEuropean vakaungana kuti vaongorore uye vape zano rakazara renguva refu resimba reEU, kutanga kubva pakuona kweCentral Europe, ichiteverwa nemaonero akabatanidzwa eUS neGermany.

Mutori wenhau wezvebhizimisi mukuru weForbes, Kenneth Rapoza naMuzvinafundo Alan Riley Ph.D. yeCity University yeLondon yakadzora mapaneru zvakateerana.

Musangano uyu wakatanga nenzwisiso inonakidza kubva kuna Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, MEP Energy Rapporteur, vachitaura kuti vatungamiriri veEU havana kukurumidza zvakakwana kufunga nezveramangwana reEurope uye kuti chinangwa chinofanira kutungamira chakananga ku0% kuvimba neRussia.

Nekudaro, mune ino chiitiko, tarisiro inokwevera kune uyo uye chii chingave sosi sekutsiva. Sezvo Europe ichishaya matsime ayo ekupa simba, kuve yakazvimiririra zvizere haingave sarudzo, saka chinodiwa kusiyanisa ndechekuti ndevapi mamwe magetsi vanopa vari panjodzi yekushungurudzwa kweRussia kana chikamu chePutin's state machine uye mari uye izvo zvisiri. 't.

Antonia Colibasanu Ph.D., Senior Analyst paGeopolitical Futures akagumisa kuti EU inoda kufambisa hunyanzvi uye kuwedzera kugadzirwa kwayo pachayo, kuburikidza nekuvaka zvivakwa zvitsva, kuwedzera liquified natural gas (LNG) kunze kwenyika pamwe nekupinda mune zvingangove uye parizvino zvisiri pamhepo zvakachengetwa. semuRomania neBlack Sea.

Chinetso chikuru chakasimudzwa naProfessor Alan Riley chakanangana nekuomerwa kwekugadzira chimiro chakafanana cheEuropean Union yese kana kusiyana kwakadaro kuripo pakati penyika dziri nhengo, kunyanya kusawirirana kwehupfumi. Chinhu chiri kushaikwa kwekuwana simba rakachipa uye rakawanda rinogona kugutsa kupatsanurwa kwevapfumi nevarombo vari kukura muEurope.

Marasha agara ari mutambi akakosha munhau yesimba reEuropean, uye yakakosha kuchengetedza simba reEurope (nemari) pamwe nerutsigiro rwekukwikwidza zvichitevera zvirango zveRussia. Kunyangwe ikaunzwa kubva kuRussia, haipe mari yakawanda kuhutongi hwaPutin uye inocherwa uye inotengeswa kunze nemakambani akazvimirira, kwete makambani anodzorwa nehurumende anogona kushandiswa semidziyo yeRussia inomanikidza mutemo wekunze, nyanzvi dzakati. Vatsoropodzi vemarasha, hongu, vanoti haatsigire chirongwa chemamiriro ekunze.

Saka Europe inogona sei kuchengetedza makwikwi munyika yepashure peUkraine hondo?

Iko mukana wezvezvezve simba masosi kutora imwe yepakati nhanho yakasimudzwa mukufunga nezve EU's 2050 Climate Neutral chinangwa. Nekudaro, maonero mubhodhi akasimbisa mukana wekuti tirarame kunze kwe "girinhi kurota". Kunyanya nekuti magetsi anogona kudzokororwa haachengetwe zviri nyore sezviya zvechinyakare zvakaita seoiri negasi.

Dr. Lars Schernikau, Co-Founder uye Shareholder weHMS Bergbau AG akataura kuti bhatiri rekuchengetedza mhepo uye simba rezuva rinoshanda chete kwemazuva mashoma kana zvachose, kana chokwadi chiripo isu tinoda kugadzirira kwemavhiki akawanda ekuchengetedza. .

Simba reHydrogen seimwe sosi haisati yave nekukwanisa kuchengetwa muhuwandu hunodiwa. Kunyanya kunetseka kwakasimudzwa naSchernikau kwaiva pamusoro pekushayikwa kwemagetsi nekuda kwekuwedzera kukuru kwekushandiswa kwemagetsi mumakore achangopfuura. Pfungwa yakataurwa kuti Germany ikozvino yawana chete 5 muzana yehuwandu hwemagetsi kugadzirwa muGermany kubva kune anovandudzwa zvichitevera mari yeEuro1 tiririyoni yemari yevateresi. Zvisinei, munhangemutange yokusava nokwavakarerekera mumamiriro okunze, vezvamatongerwe enyika vanoratidzika kuva vakapotsa chokwadi chokuti magetsi manyuko esimba anogumirawo. Muono wakakosha ndewekuti kushanda kwesimba kunopfuura kungochinja magirobhu, ndezvekuti simba riri panzvimbo rinoshandiswa sei kugadzira simba.

Tichachaja sei mota dzedu itsva dzemagetsi kana tisina simba rakakwana rinowanikwa panzvimbo? Nekuedza kunzvenga kuparadza pasi, tiri kuzvipofumadza mune imwe nzira yekuzviparadza, anodaro Schernikau.

Kubvumirana kwakagadzirisa pfungwa yakanaka semanyuko esimba rinowanikwazve, anogona kutsigira chete huwandu hushoma hwekubuda kwesimba reEurope. Saka, izvi zvinokumbira mubvunzo mutsva, kana zvitubu zvesimba rinowanikwazve zvisina kukwana kugadzira kuzviriritira, Europe ingaite sei?

Saryusz-Wolski akarumbidza simba renyukireya sesosi asi njodzi dzekuenderera mberi kwekubatana neRussia yeactor uye vatengesi vemafuta dzinoda kunyatsoongororwa. Izvi zvakavhura pasi kubvunza nezve vangangove vatambi vatsva vakaita senyika dzeAsia dzakaita seKorea neJapan. Zvakangofanana, kugadzirisa kukwira kwemitengo yekushanda kwesimba renyukireya uye kuchengetedzeka kwemafuta akashandiswa zvakafanira.

Schernikau akataura kuti 2021 raive gore rekutanga mumakumi mana emakore kuti nhamba yevanhu vasina magetsi yakakwira nemamiriyoni makumi maviri (20), zvichigadzira dambudziko rakakura kuvanhu. Kutaura kwechigarire chakaitwa mumhedziso yepfundo racho, “patinokwira zvikuru mitengo, vanhu vakawanda vachaziya nenzara. Hapana anozvikoshesa."

Parizvino, kutyisidzira kwekusaita kwakasimudza musoro wayo wakashata, uko iyo kona inonakidza pakubata divi raPutin rezvinhu yakaunzwa pamberi naDr Vladislav Inozemtsev, Washington, DC yakavakirwa simba economist uye Director weCentre for Post- Industrial Studies.

"Chaishamisa ndechekuti EU yakazivisa zvirango kumakambani emagetsi eRussia mumarasha neoiri asi hapana akabata gasi rechisikigo: kutsamira kwakanyanya pakati peEU neRussia." Inozemtsev akawedzera kuti EU inofanirwa kunanga maindasitiri ehurumende yeRussia uye kuita mari yakawanda kuti iwane mari yehondo muUkraine. "Marasha ari oga 100% muRussia. Chinangwa chinofanirwa kunge chiri chekuranga hurumende kwete mabhizinesi, saka tarisa kambani iri kutaurwa, ndeyehurumende, kana kuti yakavakirwa pamusika?

Inozemtsev akasimbisazve kuti tinogadzira njodzi huru yeramangwana kuburikidza nekudzora masosi edu emagetsi.

Dare racho rakataurawo nezve mari yekuvakwazve kweUkraine. Russia icharamba zvakajeka kubhadhara kukanganisa kwayakaita. Chokwadi chenyaya ndechekuti Europe icharamba ichitsamira pamafuta emafuta kweanenge mamwe makore 15-20 uye Ukraine inoda mari yakawanda yekudzoreredza. Inozemtsev akabva asimudza mhinduro inozorodza- ko kana paine nzira yekudzosera mari yesimba reRussia nekuda kweEurope neUkraine?

Mhedziso yake, "Europe inogona kutenga gasi kubva kuRussia nemitengo yakaderera vachishandisa sirin'i yemutengo, kutengesa kuvatengi vekuEurope nemitengo yakakwira (yemusika), uye kushandisa mutsauko wepurofiti yeUkraine, ichiitumira semutero wekubatana." KwaAlan Riley Ph.D. yakasaina chinyorwa chinotevera, nenzira ipi nzira iyi inogona kuwanikwa? Riley akaenderera mberi nekukurudzira kuumbwa kwemutemo weEU? senzira yekuona kuti mutengo wakaderera, unofambiswa neEuropean Common Purchasing Authority kutengesa mumisika yeEurope. Nekuda kweizvozvo, izvi zvaisazongopedza kuguma kweRussia-kutsamira uye pesvedzero, asi zvakaenzana kugadzira bhenefiti kune veEurope uye kutsigira Ukraine.

Mubvunzo zvino unomuka kana vatungamiriri veEU vanogona kumuka nenguva kuti vadzivise bhomba (regererai pun) uye kuita nekusimba uye nemeso matsva kuunganidza yakazara simba mutemo mukutarisisa zvinangwa zvayo zvenguva refu vachitsigira hupfumi hwenyika- kuva. Ngatisakanganwe isu tichiri kutarisana nemhedzisiro yemari yeCovid torega kurwa kweUkraine. Kana zano rikaungana rinokurudzira kusiyanisa uye kutsigira avo vanonyanya kuda, tinogona kuwana nzira nemumatope uye pamwe chete kugadzira nyika itsva.

References:

• Zvakaita sei pakutengesa kwayo oiri negasi kunze kwenyika? - BBC
  https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451#:~:text=Europe%20still%20relies%20on%20Russian%20gas&text=In%202021%2C%20Russia%20was%20supplying,its%20gas%20supply%20from%20Russian.

• Kekutanga mumakumi emakore, huwandu hwevanhu vasina kuwana magetsi huchawedzera muna 2022 - IEA
  https://www.iea.org/commentaries/for-the-first-time-in-decades-the-number-of-people-without-access-to-electricity-is-set-to-increase-in-2022

Goverana ichi chinyorwa: