Mushure meVilnius Summit: Kudyidzana kweEU kumabvazuva pamharadzano

NaGeorge Vlad Niculescu,
Musoro weKutsvagisa, The European Geopolitical Forum
The Eastern Partnership Summit, yakaitwa muna 28-29 Mbudzi 2013 muVilnius, yaifanirwa kuratidza kufambira mberi kwakaitika mumakore mana apfuura neEU pamubatanidzwa wezvematongerwo enyika uye kubatana kwehupfumi nevavakidzani vayo vekumabvazuva (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova neUkraine).

Kunyange zvazvo zvakaguma nekutanga kweAssociation Agreements yeGeorgia neMoldova, uye mukusaina zvibvumirano zvishomanana nevamwe vekumabvazuva, musangano uyu wakapambwa nemakwikwi ezvematongerwo enyika ari kukura pakati peEU neRussia. Vakanyanya kubatwa mumakwikwi aya vanga vari Armenia neUkraine, avo, vachimanikidzwa zvikuru neRussia, vakasiya hurongwa hwavo hwekusaina zvibvumirano zveAssociation uye Deep uye Comprehensive Free Trade Area neEU. Vamwe vadyidzani vekumabvazuva vakanzwawo mhepo inotonhora ichivhuvhuta muEurope mukati mehupfumi, simba kana hukama hwekuchengetedza neRussia.

Kudyidzana kwekuMabvazuva kwakatangwa muna Chivabvu 2009, muPrague, senzira yekuvandudza munyika dzinodyidzana nechinangwa chekufambisa hutongi hwakanaka, kusimudzira budiriro yedunhu uye kubatana kwevanhu, uye kuderedza kusawirirana kwemagariro nehupfumi. Zvibvumirano zveMasangano, Yakadzika uye Yakakwana Yemahara Yekutengeserana Nzvimbo, Yakakwana Institution-Building zvirongwa, uye tsigiro yekufamba kwevagari uye vhiza liberalization zvakaonekwa sematombo anotsika.

Kusiyana nekubatanidzwa kweEurope, kusikwa kweEurasian Customs Union (ECU) neRussia, Belarus neKazakhstan uye kuronga kutanga Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) ne2015 vakagadzira imwe purojekiti yekubatanidza hupfumi muEurasia. Nyanzvi dzekuMadokero dzakayambira kuti ECU inogona kushanduka nenzira inogona kupikisa European Union se "simba rinozivikanwa" mu "nharaunda yaro yakagovaniswa" neRussia. Uye, sezviri pachena, ndizvo zvakaita. Mukutanga kwaSeptember 2013, kubva kuMoscow, Mutungamiri weArmenian Sargsyan akazivisa danho renyika yake kupinda muECU. Zvichakadaro, Mutungamiriri weUkraine, Yanukovich, aive nepfungwa dzechipiri pamusoro pekubatanidza zvakasimba nyika yake neEU kuburikidza nechibvumirano cheAssociation Agreement, achiti: "Hatidi zvachose kuve nhandare yehondo pakati peEU neRussia. Tinoda kuve nehukama hwakanaka neEU neRussia." 

Nei Kudyidzana kweKumabvazuva kwakawedzera kumanikidza kweRussia kuUkraine nevamwe vangangove vadyidzani veEU, nechinangwa chekuvasundira musarudzo dzisingadiwe pakati pekubatana kweEurope neEurasian? Uye nei Moscow yakaona Eastern Partnership senzira inoenda ku zero sum game neEU?

Mhinduro iri nyore inofungidzira kuti "Russia inoona Eastern Neighbourhood yayo sechinhu chakakosha uye inoona Eastern Partnership sechombo chekuchengetedza, ichipomera EU kuyedza kukanganisa hukama hwevanhu vanogara muRussia neUkraine nedzimwe nyika dzepasi-Soviet kuitira kuti vazvisanganise munzvimbo yayo yakasarudzika yekufarira". Nekuda kweizvozvo, Russia ichave "ichimanikidza EU muhondo yezvematongerwo enyika neMoscow, iyo yaisingade". Nekudaro, iyi haisi mhinduro inogutsa, nekuti inofuratira kutadza kweEU kuisa Kudyidzana kwekuMabvazuva mune geopolitical mamiriro uye kuishandisa zvinoenderana. Sezvakataurwa naSteven Keil: “European Union ichiri kuzviwana ichiedza kuyananisa basa rayo somutambi anogara achingoita zvinhu zvechokwadi mune zvematongerwo enyika munzvimbo dzinokwikwidzana dzechido.” Zvinoonekwa neEU senzira yehunyanzvi, yekumisikidzwa kwetsika dzechizvino-zvino zvakaonekwa nevamwe (kureva maRussia, pamwe nemamwe masimba ematunhu) senzira yezvematongerwo enyika nekuda kwemhedzisiro yayo yakakura.

Kutaura chokwadi, EU haigone kuburitswa pamabasa ezvematongerwo enyika. Kusiyana neizvi, kushaikwa kwekujeka muzvinangwa zvaro zve geopolitical munharaunda yekumabvazuva kwakadudzirwa sekuedza kwakavanzika kwekukanganisa zvido zveanokwikwidza masimba ematunhu. Naizvozvo, kana Brussels yaizobudirira kuzadzisa zvinangwa zveEastern Partnership, yaifanira kutora mutoro wakazara wezvematongerwo enyika mudunhu. Zvikasadaro, iyo Union haigone kukunda "kunetsana kwazvino kwemaitiro eEuropean uye geopolitical realities".

Semuyenzaniso, EU inofanirwa kutora chikamu chayo pachayo mukutarisira kumanikidzwa kwekunze kwakakonzera kuti vadyidzani vayo vabude mukudyidzana kwakadzama neMubatanidzwa. Dai EU yanga iri mutambi wechokwadi munharaunda yekumabvazuva kweEurope, ingadai yakadzivirira kudzvanywa kweRussia nevavakidzani ava kana, zvirinani, ingadai yakapa vanodyidzana nerutsigiro rwakakura kuti varambe kunyengera kweMoscow. Kunze kwekunge ichitaura nezwi rimwechete uye ichiita semutambi ane mutoro wedunhu, Brussels haigone, semuenzaniso, kupa zvinovimbika "zviratidzo zvakajeka kuMoscow kuti mutengo wehondo yekutengeserana kurwisa Ukraine [kana zvechokwadi kune chero veEU vekumabvazuva vanobatana] zvinosanganisirawo kuwedzera kurasikirwa kwehupfumi, kunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika, uye kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika muhukama hweRussia neWest".

Ko Eastern Partnership inotungamira kupi mushure memusangano weVilnius? Mhinduro yepamutemo yakapihwa ne 'Joint Declaration of the Eastern Partnership Summit, Vilnius, 28-29 Mbudzi 2013, Eastern Partnership: way ahead'. Nekudaro, zvinoramba zvichijeka kuti Eastern Partnership iri pamharadzano yenzira: ingave yakafambiswa mberi ichiziva uye ichienderana neiyo geopolitical realities, kana inonyura mukusakosha. Nokudaro, nzira yekufungisisa zvakadzama pamusoro pekuti sei Eastern Partnership, kuisa zvinyoro, yakanonoka kusvika ikozvino mukuzadzisa zvinangwa zvayo inodiwa kupfuura kare. Mhedzisiro yeiyi fungidziro inofanirwa kunge iri yekuisa Eastern Partnership mune yayo geopolitical mamiriro kuburikidza neinonzwika zano rakagadzirirwa kugadzirisa matambudziko ari kubuda muEurasia - mukaha wepfungwa uri kukura pakati peRussia neMadokero; kugadzirisa kusawirirana kwenguva refu; uye dambudziko renyika dzepashure-Soviet dzakanamira pakati peEuropean neEurasia mubatanidzwa wehupfumi.

Mazano ezvematongerwo enyika anotsigira kuitwa kweKudyidzana kweKumabvazuva angave akadikanwa sezvo “…apo EU ichikurudzira kubatanidza mashandiro, zvido zvevakuru vepashure peSoviet kuti hukama hwepedyo neEU kazhinji hutsigirwe nezvinangwa zvezvematongerwo enyika. […] Zvisingashamisi, geopolitics ndiyo prism iyo nyika idzi dzinoona hukama hwadzo neEU” . Pamusoro pezvo, chidzidzo chimwechete cheEuropean Policy Center chakataura kuti "Kushaikwa kwechero nzira yekusimbisa kunoshamisa zvakare nekupa mukaha wakakura pakati pezvido nenyika dzavanodyidzana nazvo uye hurongwa hweEU.". Pakupera kwezuva, sezvo zviyero zvinogadzira mutemo nemutemo zvinoumba kudyidzana kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi, kutsanangura zviyero zvakajairwa zvinopedzisira zvave nzira inoshanda yekuvaka zvitupa zve geopolitical.

Iyo geopolitical strategy yeEastern Partnership inogona kupa nzira dzinoshanda dzekuripa simba rakapfava riri kupera simba reEU munharaunda yese yeEurope, zvichipihwa kudzikira kwesimba rezvematongerwo enyika uye kukwezva kwehupfumi mushure medambudziko reEuro. Zano rakadaro rinogona kuratidza, semuenzaniso, kuti kuchengetedza Ukraine iri munzira yeEurope uku uchichengetedza kubatana nekugadzikana kwenyika kunoda kuti EU idzidze kushanda neRussia, pane kupikisa kana kusabvisa Russia. Izvi zvinogonawo kuva zvechokwadi pakuchengetedza Armenia, Azerbaijan neBelarus, kana vasiri vese vekumabvazuva vanobatana, mukati meEuropean integration process.

Kushanda neRussia mukuvandudza hutongi munharaunda yakajairwa hazvigoneke chero EU neRussia dzichiramba dzichipokana pazvinhu zvepfungwa, kunyanya pademocracy, kodzero dzemunhu, uye rusununguko. Sezvineiwo, kana kuda kwezvematongerwo enyika kushanda neRussia kukakunda mumaguta makuru eEurope nemuMoscow, gaka rinokura repfungwa pakati peRussia neMadokero rinogona kuvharwa zvishoma nezvishoma nenzira dzepragmatic dzekuwiriranisa hunhu hweEuropean neRussia hwezvematongerwo enyika nevanhu. Kuti izvozvo zviitike, ongororo yekuenzanisa yemhando dzekutonga dzeEurope neRussia dzinogona kubatsira kuona zvinhu zvekusangana uye nzira dzekudzikisa zvinhu zvekusiyana, uku uchishandura izvo zvinoonekwa nhasi semutambo we zero kuita zano rekuhwina.

Iyo geopolitical zano reEastern Partnership inofanirwa kugonesa EU-Russia simba kugovana munharaunda yakajairwa, uye inogona kunanga kuwiriranisa maEuropean neEurasian masisitimu ekubatanidza. Muchokwadi, matanho aya anogona kumutsiridza kudyidzana kwehupfumi munharaunda imwechete, izvo zvingave zvakanakira Turkey uye nyika dzemumashure meSoviet dzakatarisana nedambudziko rekubatanidzwa kweEuropean vs. Eurasian. Pakupedzisira, Kudyidzana kwekuMabvazuva kwaigona kuvhura mikana yekuwedzera kubatanidzwa kwedunhu munzvimbo dzakanyanya kuoma munharaunda, seSouth Caucasus, uko kusawirirana kuchiri kuenderera.

Chekupedzisira, sekuratidzwa kwakaita sarudzo yeArmenia yekuchinja pfungwa kubva kuEurope kuenda kuEurasian, kukakavara kwenguva refu muSouth Caucasus uye muTransnistria kunoderedza kuedza kuita zvinangwa zveEastern Partnership. Iyo geopolitical strategy yeEastern Partnership inofanirwa kufunga matanho ekugadzirisa kusawirirana nekugadzirisa, izvo zvinogona kubatsira kukunda kusagadzikana kwenzvimbo iyo yanga ichiita madhaka kubva pakupera kweCold War. Semuyenzaniso, inogona kupa kudyidzana kuri nani kwedunhu kwemaitiro aripo ekugadzirisa dambudziko; kusimbisa hutongi hwenzvimbo dzerunyararo, kunyanya kuburikidza nekuumba chiono chedunhu chakabatana mushure mekupokana; uye kurwisa kutya kwevamwe vatambi vemunharaunda yemhinduro dzakaiswa neRussia.

Mukupedzisa, mumashure memusangano weVilnius, EU inogona kuita zvirinani mukufambisa mberi Eastern Partnership kana yakafunga nezve geopolitical zvinorehwa nemaitiro anofambiswa neEuropean integration process, uye yakazogadzira akakodzera geopolitical strategy. Zano rakadaro rinofanirwa kuronga nzira uye nzira dzekubatanidza vamwe vatambi vedunhu mukuita, kusanganisira Russia neTurkey, sechinhu chakakosha kudzikamisa kushushikana kwavo kwezvematongerwo enyika. Inofanirawo kugonesa Union kuti ipe mhinduro dzakabatana uye dzakabatana kune zvingangoitika zvezvematongerwo enyika kubva munharaunda yekumabvazuva. Zvikasadaro, iyo yekuMabvazuva Partnership ine njodzi yekunyura mukusakosha semhedzisiro yeiyo geopolitical naivety yevakatanga vayo.

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