Kutyisidzira kwemitero kwaTrump kunoisa mumvuri pamusoro pemaindasitiri akakosha eEurope

Sezvo Donald Trump ari kugadzirira kudzokera kuWhite House, Europe iri kugadzirira kutsvaira mitero yeUS yekutengesa inogona kukanganisa maindasitiri akakosha. Kurudziro yaVaTrump yekutemesa 20% mutero kune zvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muUS - inodarika madhora mazana matatu emadhora pagore - yakamisa mabhero muBrussels. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kuEurope kuUS, uko kunokosha kudarika mabhiriyoni mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu emadhora muna 3, kunogona kutarisana nekuvhiringwa kwakanyanya. Mafambiro aya anoratidza maitiro aTrump ekutanga ekutengeserana. Inotarisirwa kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matatu emadhora muna 230, kushomeka kwekutengeserana kweUS-EU kwakakurudzira kukurudzira kwaTrump kwemitemo yekudzivirira. Kusaenzana kuri kukura kungango simbisa nyaya yake yezviitwa zvekutengeserana zvakanyanya sezvo ari kutsvaga kusimudzira vagadziri veUS uye kuderedza kuvimba nekutenga kunze kwenyika.

"Vatungamiriri veEurope havafanirwe kufunga kuti kutyisidzira uku kungoita manyama amire nerongo," akadaro Everett Eissenstat, aimbove mubatsiri waTrump wezvehupfumi hwenyika. indavhiyu ne Politico newspaper. "Mutungamiriri wenyika ane nhoroondo yekutevera, uye timu yake iri kuvakwa iine chirongwa ichi mupfungwa."

Autos, zvekurima, uye makemikari ari crosshairs

Chirongwa chaVaTrump chekutengeserana chinotarisirwa kunangana nezvikamu uko EU inobata yakawandisa neUS, kusanganisira mota, zvekurima, uye makemikari.

Chikamu chemotokari cheGermany - kumusha kune hofori dzepasi rose seVolkswagen, BMW, uye Mercedes-Benz - iri panjodzi. Nyika yakanyora 86 bhiriyoni yekutengeserana yakasara neUS muna 2023, zvichiita kuti ive chinangwa chepamusoro chemitero. Indasitiri yemotokari yeEurope yakafararira, yave kutonetsana nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi uye kuvhiringwa kweketani, inogona kutarisana nematambudziko matsva.

Iyo US zvakare inonakidzwa nekumisikidza mabhenefiti mune yakaderera yevashandi, capital, uye mutengo wesimba. Iwo mapeji akawedzera kubva mukupera kwa2024, apo zvirango zveUS paGazprombank yeRussia zvakakanganisa mubhadharo wezvakasara zvegasi reRussia muEurope, zvichikwidza mitengo yemagetsi mukondinendi yese.

Kurima kweEurope kuriwo panjodzi. EU yakanyora yakawedzera mukutengeserana kwekurima neUS muhafu yekutanga ya2024, ichitungamirwa nekutengesa kunze kwemafuta omuorivhi, waini, uye brandy. Nekudaro, zvigadzirwa izvi zviri nyore kutsiva mumusika weUS zvichienzaniswa nemichina yakaoma kana zvikamu zveindasitiri, zvichiita kuti ive chinangwa chinokwezva chemitero.

Varimi vekuEurope vatove nekumanikidzwa kubva mukukwira kwefetereza nemitengo yemafuta edzimotokari, goho risina simba ra2024, uye makwikwi ari kukura kubva kune vanogadzira zvinodhura seUkraine neLatin America.

Nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo yefetereza, mapurazi eEU azviona ari panguva yakaoma zvikuru. Muna 2022, mitengo yenitrogen fetereza yakawedzera ne3.3 nguva zvichienzaniswa ne2019, uye muna 2024, vanga vachiri 65% kukwira. Varimi vakatanga kushandisa fetereza shoma. Nekuda kweizvozvo, maererano neEurostat, goho rose rezvirimwa muEU rakaderera nemamiriyoni makumi maviri nenomwe nemazana mashanu zvichienzaniswa ne27.5. Zvese izvi zvakakonzera kudzikiswa kwepurofiti yevarimi. Muna 2019, mari yemuhoro pamushandi yakadzikira neavhareji ye2023%. Nekuda kweizvozvo, huwandu hwevanhu vanoshanda mubazi iri huri kudzikira neavhareji ye5.4% pagore.

Chibvumirano cheEU chenguva pfupi yapfuura chekutengeserana neMercosur, icho chinotarisirwa kubvumidza mafashama ekutengesa zvakachipa zvekurima muEurope, inowedzera imwe nhanho yekuoma kwechikamu chezvekurima chiri kunetsekana.

Zvishandiso zvishoma zvekutsiva

Nepo Brussels yatanga kugadzirira matanho ekupikisa, EU inotarisana nematambudziko makuru ekupindura kumitero yeUS. Vagadziri vekuEurope nevarimi vari pamakwikwi, kunyanya sezvo vagadziri vekuAmerica vachibatsirikana nemitengo yakaderera yekuisa uye simba.

Panzvimbo pekutsiva nemitero yakaenzana, vagadziri vemitemo veEU vanogona kutarisa kudzikisa mitengo yekupinda mumaindasitiri akakosha. Imwe nhanho inogona kusanganisira kucheka mutero wefetereza kubva kune vanotengesera vakaita seRussia neTrinidad neTobago, kunyangwe danho rakadaro richigona kupikisa zvematongerwo enyika zvichipihwa chimiro cheEU mune zvematongerwo enyika paRussia.

Pane dzimwe nguva mazano ekurambidza zvachose kutorwa kwefetereza kubva kuRussia. Zvinofanira kubvumwa kuti seri kwechikumbiro chekunze chechirongwa ichi pane pfungwa isina kunyatsofungwa. Kurambidzwa kwakadaro kunongobatsira mashoma chaiwo makambani ari kutoita zvakanaka pamusika. Nekudaro, yaizobata imwezve dambudziko rinoparadza kuchikamu chezvekurima cheEU.

Mitemo yekudzivirira yezvigadzirwa kubva kuRussia yakatoratidza mhedzisiro yakajeka, parizvino hapana yakasara yemafetereza eRussia pamusika weEU. Maererano nekuongorora kwakaitwa nekambani yekuongorora CRU Independent Expert Intelligence, kutengwa kwenitrogen yeRussia ikozvino kwadzikira kusvika pa28%, zvichienzaniswa neyakajairwa nhoroondo ye33%. Chikamu cheurea kubva kuRussia chakaderera kubva pa33% kusvika pa23.8%. Zvichakadaro, chikamu makumi matatu nepfumbamwe kubva muzana che potassium fetireza inotengeswa kuEU inobva kuCanada, ukuwo chikamu cheRussia chadzikira kusvika pamakumi maviri muzana.

Imwe nzira inogona kusanganisira kusiyanisa hukama hwekutengeserana nemisika yeGlobal South kuti ibvise kurasikirwa muUS "Kufananidza mutero weUS-we-tariff kungadzora, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera mari kumabhizinesi eEurope nevatengi," akadaro mukuru wezvekutengeserana weEU. "Europe inoda nzira yakangwara, yakanangwa."

High stakes kuEurope

Kurudziro yaVaTrump yemitero inouya panguva yakaoma kuEurope, iyo iri kutonetsana nedambudziko remagetsi, kukwira kwemitengo, uye kukura kunodoka. Hondo yakavandudzwa yekutengeserana neUS yaizowedzera imwe nhanho yekusagadzikana kune maonero ehupfumi.

"Zvikumbiro zvaTrump chiyeuchidzo chakasimba chekuti hukama hweTransatlantic hauchapihwa," akadaro mumiriri weEU. "Europe inofanirwa kutarisisa kukwikwidza kwayo, kana isu tinosvika panjodzi yekurasikirwa kwete kuUS chete, asi kune vamwe vatambi vepasirese."

Simba revakwikwidzi veEU riri mumhinduro yavo inenge yekukurumidza kune shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika, iyo yavanoshandisa kune mukana wavo mukuru. Vatambi vepasirese ava vanokurumidza kuzadza niches ichangobva kuvhurwa, vachitora mukana wechero kushaya simba muvadzivisi vavo uye kutora zvinzvimbo zvavo. Izvi zvinopesana neEU inorema, iyo inodzivirirwa zvakare neinertia yayo inoshamisa.

Muenzaniso wezvirango zvinopesana nemafetiraiza eRussia uri kunyanya kutaura pano. Vanenge vese vatambi vepasi rose, kusanganisira US, vari kubatsirwa nezvirango izvi, nepo EU chete iri kuverenga kurasikirwa kukuru. Sezvo Brussels inogadzirira hondo inogona kutengeserana neWashington, inofanirwa kuchengeta izvi mupfungwa uye kuita zvine musoro sezvinobvira izvozvi, kudzivirira kuwedzera. Pazvishoma, izvi zvinodiwa kuchengetedza kurima kwayo, makumi ezviuru zvemapurazi, uye, pamwe chete nazvo, kuchengetedza kwayo kwekudya.

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