Nguva yechando 2024 Economic Forecast: Kunonoka kudzokororwa mukukura mukati mekukurumidza kurerutswa kwekukwira kwemitengo.

Kutevera kukura kwakaderera gore rapfuura, hupfumi hweEU hwapinda muna 2024 padanho rakaderera pane zvaitarisirwa. European Commission's Winter Interim Forecast inodzokorora kukura muEU uye nharaunda yeEuro kudzika kusvika 0.5% muna 2023, kubva pa0.6% inofungidzirwa mu Autumn Forecast, uye kusvika 0.9% (kubva pa1.3%) muEU uye 0.8% (kubva pa1.2 %) munzvimbo ye euro mu 2024. Muna 2025, basa rehupfumi richiri kutarisirwa kuwedzera ne 1.7% muEU uye 1.5% munzvimbo ye euro.

Inflation inotarwa kuti inonoke nekukurumidza kupfuura yaifungidzirwa mumatsutso. MuEU, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation inotarisirwa kudonha kubva pa6.3% muna 2023 kusvika pa3.0% muna 2024 uye 2.5% muna 2025. Munharaunda yeEuro, inotarisirwa kudzikira kubva pa5.4% muna 2023 kusvika pa2.7. % muna 2024 uye kusvika 2.2% muna 2025. 

Kukura kuti uwanezve traction muna 2024 mushure mekutanga kusina simba kune gore

Muna 2023, kukura kwakadzoserwa kumashure nekuparara kwesimba rekutenga dzimba, kusimba kwemari, kubviswa kwechikamu cherutsigiro rwemari uye kuderera kwekuda kwekunze. Mushure mekudzivirira zvishoma kuderera kwehunyanzvi muhafu yechipiri yegore rapfuura, tarisiro yehupfumi hweEU mukota yekutanga ya2024 inoramba isina simba.

Zvakadaro, basa rehupfumi richiri kutarisirwa kuti risimukire zvishoma nezvishoma gore rino. Sezvo inflation iri kuramba ichidzikira, kukura kwemuhoro chaiko uye musika wevashandi wakasimba unofanirwa kutsigira kudzokororwa kwekushandisa. Kunyangwe kuderera kwemari yepurofiti, investimendi inoiswa kuti ubatsirwe kubva zvishoma nezvishoma kurerutswa kwechikwereti mamiriro uye nekuenderera mberi kwekuita kweKudzoreredza uye Resilience Facility. Pamusoro pezvo, kutengeserana nevadyidzani vekune dzimwe nyika kunotarisirwa kudzikamisa, mushure mekuita zvisina kusimba gore rapfuura.

Iko kumhanya kwekukura kwakagadzirirwa kudzikamisa sehafu yechipiri ye2024 kusvika pakupera-2025.

Kuderera nekukurumidza-kupfuura-inotarisirwa mukuderera kweinflation

Kuderera kwemusoro weinflation muna 2023 kwakakurumidza kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, zvichikonzerwa nekuderera kwemitengo yemagetsi. Nekumira kuri kuita chiitiko, kudzikisira kwemitengo muhafu yechipiri yegore rapfuura kwakawedzera kune zvimwe zvinhu nemasevhisi.

Kukwira kwemitengo kuri pasi-kupfuura-kwaitarisirwa mumwedzi ichangopfuura, kuderera kwemitengo yezvinhu zvemagetsi uye kusamira zvakanaka kwehupfumi kwakaita kuti inflation iende kumawere kupfuura zvaitarisirwa muMakwikwi. Zvisinei, munguva pfupi iri kutevera, kupera kwematanho ekutsigira simba muNyika Dzese uye mitengo yepamusoro yekutumira inotevera kukanganiswa kwekutengeserana muGungwa Dzvuku zvakaiswa kuti zviwedzere kukwira kwemitengo, pasina kukanganisa maitiro ekuderera kwekukwira kwemitengo. Pakupera kwekufanotaura, inflation yenzvimbo yeEuro inofungidzirwa kuti ichamira pamusoro pechinangwa cheECB, neEU inflation yakakwira notch.   

Kuwedzera kusavimbika pakati pekusagadzikana kwegeopolitical

Iyi fungidziro yakakomberedzwa nekusagadzikana pakati pekusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye njodzi yekuwedzera kuwedzera kwekupokana muMiddle East. Kuwedzera kwemitengo yekutumira mushure mekukanganiswa kwekutengeserana kweGungwa Dzvuku kunotarisirwa kuve nekukanganisa kuderera kweinflation. Kumwe kuvhiringika kunogona, zvisinei, kukonzeresa mabhodhoro ezvekupa anogona kuvhunga kugadzirwa uye kukwidza mitengo.

Munyika, njodzi kune yekutanga fungidziro yekukura nekukwira kwemitengo ine chekuita nekuti mashandisirwo, kukura kwemihoro uye mibairo yepurofiti haina kuita zvakanaka kana kudarika zvinotarisirwa, uye kuti mibairo yakakwira sei, kwenguva yakareba sei. Njodzi dzemamiriro ekunze uye kuwanda kwezviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zvakanyanya kuenderera mberi kutyisidzira. 

kumashure

Iyo Chando 2024 Economic Forecast inopa gadziriso yeAutumn 2023 Economic Forecast, yakatarisana neGDP uye inflation kusimukira munyika dzese dzeEU Nhengo.

Nguva yeChando Forecast yakavakirwa pahurongwa hwefungidziro dzehunyanzvi maererano nemitengo yekuchinjana, mari dzemhindu nemitengo yezvinhu ine zuva rekupedzisira remusi wa29 Ndira 2024. Kune mamwe ese ari kuuya data, kusanganisira fungidziro pamusoro pemitemo yehurumende, fungidziro iyi inotarisisa ruzivo kumusoro. kusvika uye kusanganisira 1 Kukadzi 2024.

European Commission inoburitsa fungidziro mbiri dzakadzama (chirimo nematsutso) uye fungidziro mbiri dzenguva pfupi (chando nezhizha) gore rega rega. Mafungiro enguva pfupi anobata GDP yegore negore uye yekota uye inflation yegore razvino uye rinotevera kune ese Nhengo dzeNyika, pamwe neEU uye euros area aggregates.

Mafungiro anotevera eKomisheni achange ari Spring 2024 Economic Forecast, yakarongwa kuburitswa muna Chivabvu.

Kuti uwane mamwe mashoko

Gwaro rakazara: Chando 2024 Economic Forecast

Tevera Mutevedzeri weMutungamiri Dombrovskis pa Twitter: @VDombrovskis

Tevera Commissioner Gentiloni pa Twitter: @PaoloGentiloni

Tevera DG ECFIN pa Twitter: @ecfin

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