#EuropeanBankingShock inogona kunge iri inotevera sosi yedambudziko rehupfumi hwenyika

Makore gumi nerimwe mushure medambudziko rezvemari repasi rose, indasitiri yebhangi yekuEurope iri kugadzirira zvakare mazuva akaoma ari mberi. Mushure mekuzivisa kweDeutsche Bank yehurongwa hwakakura hwekuramwa mabasa nguva pfupi yadarika, rimwe bhanga rakakura reEuropean rinogona kuenda nenzira imwecheteyo. Saizvozvo, UniCredit iri kufunga nezvekucheka mabasa zviuru gumi uye izvi zvinoumba gumi muzana yevashandi vese vebhangi pasi rose. Nekuziviswa kwehurongwa hwebhizinesi hwayo hwe11-10,000 hwakarongwa muna Zvita gore rino, zvinotarisirwa kuti vazhinji vevakadzingwa vachave vashandi vayo vekuItaly, nyora Chen Gong naKarl CL Lee. 

Sebhanga guru reItaly nehukuru hweasset, UniCredit ibhanga reEuropean rine dzimbahwe muMilan, rine mashandiro munyika gumi nepfumbamwe uye rine vatengi vanopfuura mamirioni makumi maviri nemasere. Iri zvakare rimwe remabhanga ane mukurumbira makongiresi muEurope ane bhizinesi rekufambisa munzvimbo dzakapfuma kwazvo dzeItari, Austria, maodzanyemba eGermany pamwe neayo ari kuCentral neEastern Europe nyika. Iine hupfumi hwe19 bhiriyoni, UniCredit parizvino ndiro bhanga hombe muEurozone, yechitatu pakukura muEurope uye yechitanhatu pakukura pasirese. Nekudaro, purofiti yayo iri kudzikira mumakore achangopfuura uye sekureva kweFinancial Times, UniCredit purofiti ya28 yakadzikira neinoda kusvika 91% kusvika € 2018bn kana ichienzaniswa ne29 bhiriyoni muna 3.89.

Mhosva mbiri idzi dzekuramwa mabasa kukuru kunogona kunge kuri chiratidzo chekuti indasitiri yemabhanga ekuEurope haisati yawana zvakakwana kubva mudambudziko rechikwereti cheEurope. Ipo US yakatora mitemo yekurerutsira uye kugarisa mari pamwe nekutanga matanho emutemo kusimbisa kutariswa kweindasitiri yemabhanga, pakange pasina mutemo wakabatana wezvemari muEurope mukupindura dambudziko rechikwereti. Maingove muna Mbudzi 2014 ⸺ makore mana mushure mekuitika kwedambudziko ⸺ pakatangwa nzira imwechete yekudzora chikamu chebhanga muEU. Kuwedzera iko kushaikwa kwerutsigiro rwakakwana rwegwara rekuita de-leveraging process yeEuropean banking indasitiri iyo yakadzora maitiro ese ekugadzirisa hupfumi. Zvekare, izvi zvaive zvakasiyana zvakanyanya kune mumwe wavo wekuAmerica uyo akamhanyisa maitiro ekubvisa-reveraging mushure medambudziko rechikwereti. Kubva pari zvino, zvikwereti zvese zvemabhanga makumi maviri nenomwe eEurope zvakanyora chikamu chepamusoro chezvikwereti zvisiri zvemari zvichipesana neavo vekuAmerica, chiratidzo chekuti purofiti yepakutanga iri kudzikira nekuda kwekudiwa kwekushandira zvikwereti zvakadaro.

The banking performance-economic growth nexus

Pamwero wakawanda, kusashanda zvakanaka kweindasitiri yemabhanga ekuEurope kwakabva mukudzoreredza zvishoma nezvishoma kwehupfumi hweEurope uye kusimba kwemitemo yemabhanga. Data kubva kuWorld Bank inoratidza kuti kubva muna 2010 kusvika 2017, GDP yepasi rose yakawedzera kubva paUS$65.96 trillion kusvika US$80.73trn, inomiririra kuwedzera kwe22.39%. Pakati pavo, GDP yeUS yakawedzera ne29.61%, kubva paUS$14.96trn kuenda kuUS$19.39trn; nepo EU's GDP yakawedzera ne1.76% chete (kubva paUS$16.98trn kusvika kuUS$17.28trn). Muchidimbu, kukura kwehupfumi hweEU hakusi kuderera zvakanyanya pane avhareji yepasi rose asiwo, kuderera kupfuura US.

Chikonzero chinoita kuti mabhanga eEuropean aenderane zvakanyanya nekukura kwehupfumi hwayo imhaka yekuti mabhanga eEurope (kunyanya mabhanga madiki uye epakati nepakati) haana kudyidzana zvakanyanya pasi rose uye mabhizinesi avo anonyanya kuwanikwa mukondinendi. Mabhanga mashoma akakura, akadai seDeutsche Bank, ane mapazi pasi rese anopa masevhisi kune vatengi pasi rose. Sezvo kusawirirana kwekutengeserana kwepasi rose kunowedzera uye kuderera kwehupfumi kunowedzera, purofiti yemabhanga makuru aya iri kukanganiswa. Mabhanga madiki uye epakati nepakati ane mabhizinesi akanyanya kutenderera muEurope achaona kuomerwa mukuvandudza purofiti yavo.

Mushure medambudziko rechikwereti cheEurope, kune kuomeswa kwemitemo mukati menyika dzeEurope. Kune chokwadi, dambudziko rechikwereti rakafumura matambudziko maviri ehurongwa hweEuropean banking indasitiri: mabhanga ari kuita mabhizinesi ane njodzi yepamusoro uye pasi pemutemo weEU's financial system. Mukugadzirisa matambudziko aya, EU yakawedzera zvinodiwa nemari yekubhanga nekurambidza mabhanga makuru kuita zvekutengesa pamwe nekumisa fungidziro yakawandisa muindasitiri yemabhanga. Nekune rimwe divi, yakaumbawo nzira yakabatana yekutonga iyo inosanganisira nzira yekuchenesa uye dhipoziti inishuwarenzi system yenhengo dzayo. Nepo matanho maviri aya akange adzikamisa indasitiri yemabhanga nekuwedzera huwandu hwekukwana kwemari uye kubviswa kwezvinhu zvine njodzi, zvakakonzerawo kudzikira kwepurofiti pakati pemabhanga eEurope.

Imwe dambudziko rebhangi riri kuuya?

Kevin Dowd, purofesa wezvemari nehupfumi paDurham University, ane maonero ekuti dambudziko guru rekubhanga reEU rakazvigadzira wega. Kune imwe, mitemo yekurerutsa uye mitemo yekushivirira yakawedzera zvakanyanya dambudziko rekubhadhara, iro ragara rakamirira EU. Saka nekudaro, Dowd anotenda kuti indasitiri yemabhangi ekuEurope yakanangana nedambudziko uye yazvino yakashata yekukwereta chikwereti mhinduro inoshandiswa nemabhangi ayo ichakundikana pakupedzisira. Pakupedzisira, pachava nemamiriro ezvinhu apo vateresi vachafanira kubhadhara indasitiri yemabhanga sezvo yave yakakura zvikuru kuti ikundike.

Mune zvese, zvakakosha kuziva kuti zvese Deutsche Bank neUniCredit zvinoonekwa semabhangi ane kukosha kwakanyanya muEuropean system yemari. Kana mabhanga aya aine matambudziko, anozoburitsa zvinokanganisa pamusoro peEuropean system yemari. Nekuda kwedambudziko ranga riripo kwenguva refu padivi pehondo yekutengeserana yeUS-China izvo zvakakonzera kudzikira kwehupfumi hwenyika, European Central Bank (ECB) inotarisirwa kuunza marongero ekurerutsa uye kunyange kuderedza mhindu mberi kuitira kusimudzira hupfumi. Kana mareti emubereko akadonha zvakanyanya, anozowedzera huremu kune yakarebesa mibairo mibairo iyo yakatokanganisa purofiti yeEuropean banking indasitiri. Nemabhanga aya anotariswa kutarisana nedambudziko rekuwedzera purofiti, zvinozokanganisa maitiro ekukweretesa emabhizinesi eEurope uye pamwe, zvichikwevera pasi kukura kwehupfumi hweEU. Kana kuvhunduka kwakadai kwebhangi kukaramba kuchiwedzera mukati menguva yakashata, zvinogona kukonzeresa dambudziko rehupfumi hwenyika.

Muvambi weAnbound Funga Tank muna 1993, Chen Gong zvino ave ANBOUND Chief Researcher. Chen Gong mumwe wenyanzvi dzeChina dzine mukurumbira mukuongorora ruzivo. Zvizhinji zvezviitwa zveChen Gong zvakatanhamara zvekutsvagisa zvidzidzo zviri mukuongorora ruzivo rwehupfumi, kunyanya munzvimbo yehurongwa hweveruzhinji.

Karl CL Lee ndiye PhD Mumiriri paChikoro cheArt and Social Sayenzi, Monash University (Malaysia Campus). Aive zvakare Mudzidzi Wekushanya paChikoro chePolitics uye Public Administration, Guangxi University yeNyika (GXUN) pasi pe2017/2018 Chinese Government Scholarship (Bilateral Chirongwa)

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