Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze: Waizoita sei kana chiremba wako aine 95% chokwadi chekuti une chirwere chakakomba?

Chii chaungaita kana chiremba wako aine chokwadi che95% kuti une chirwere chakakomba? Uye zvakadini dai asiri chiremba mumwe chete, asi mazana evanachiremba vanotungamirira pasi rose? Ungangovafuratira woenderera mberi nebhizinesi semazuva ese kana kuti ungatanga kutsvaga mushonga? Ingori pfungwa. Pfungwa imwe cheteyo inoshanda kune sainzi yemamiriro ekunze. Nhasi, United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) yapa mushumo wayo uchangoburwa wesainzi yemamiriro ekunze. Chirevo ichi chinoti hazvina mubvunzo kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kuitika uye inosimbisa kuti pane inosvika 95% chokwadi chekuti zviitiko zvevanhu ndizvo zvakakonzera.

Vachipindura mushumo uyu, Commissioner weClimate Action Connie Hedegaard akati: '' Nyaya haisi yekuti ndotenda here mukushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kana kuti kwete. Nyaya iri pakuti totevera sainzi here kana kuti kwete. Zuva iro masayendisiti ese ane 100% chokwadi achikuyambira nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, zvichange zvanyanya. Kana chiremba wako aine 95% chokwadi chekuti une chirwere chakakomba, waibva watanga kutsvaga mushonga. Nei tichifanira kutora njodzi huru kana hutano hwepasi redu huri panjodzi? Europe icharamba ichitungamira kurwisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Tine mitemo ine chishuwo iripo. Tiri kuderedza kuburitsa kwedu zvakanyanya, tichiwedzera zvinogadzirwazve uye kuchengetedza simba. Uye isu tiri kugadzirira danho rinotevera: mamiriro ekunze uye simba zvinangwa zve2030 izvo Komisheni ichapa pamberi pekupera kwegore. Chokwadi chiripo ndechekuti vamwe vave kutevera. Europe icharamba ichida mamwe matanho kubva kune vese emitters.''

Zviwanikwa zvikuru

IPCC Working Group I inoshuma, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, inoongorora ruzivo rwezvesayenzi rwemazuva ano pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Boka rinoshanda rakapedzisa 'Pfupiso yeVagadziri vePolisi' nhasi muStockholm. Chirevo cheBoka Rekushanda 1 ndicho chekutanga chemishumo ina iyo pamwe chete ichaumba IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.

Pakazara, mushumo wanhasi unosimbisa uye unosimbisa zvakawanikwa neIPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, yakabudiswa muna 2007. Inotora humbowo hutsva, kuongorora kwakawanda, miitiro yemamiriro ekunze yakavandudzwa, kunzwisiswa kukuru kwemaitiro emamiriro ekunze uye fungidziro dzakawanda dzekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.

Zviwanikwa zvayo zvakakosha zvinosanganisira:

• Kudziya kwemamiriro ekunze hakuna mubvunzo. Tembiricha yepasi rose yakakwira ingangoita 0.8°C kubvira 1880. Kubva kuma1950 shanduko zhinji dzakaonekwa hadzina kumboitika mumakumi emakore kusvika kumireniyamu. Kuwanda kwemagasi egreenhouse kwakawedzera, mhepo negungwa zvadziya, huwandu hwechando nechando zvadzikira, chando chegungwa reArctic chiri kudzoka uye mwero wegungwa wakwira.
• 'Zvingangoitika zvakanyanya' (zvichireva kuti pane chokwadi chinosvika 95%) kuti zviitiko zvevanhu zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwekushisa kwepasi mumakore makumi matanhatu apfuura. Kuwanda kwecarbon dioxide mumhepo yakawedzera nezvikamu makumi mana kubva muzana kubva muna 60 semugumisiro wekuita kwevanhu, zvinenge zvachose nekuda kwekupisa kwemafuta uye kuparadzwa kwemasango.
• Imwe neimwe yemakumi matatu emakore apfuura yave ichidziya zvakatevedzana kupfuura makore gumi apfuura kubva pakatanga marekodhi ezviridzwa muna 1850. Kudziya kwakaderera mumakore gumi nemashanu apfuura uye izvi zvinoita sezviri kukonzerwa nemwero wakaenzana nekuchinja-chinja kwezvinhu zvakasikwa, seEl Niño. /La Niña phenomena muPacific Ocean, uye kutonhora kwemhepo kubva mukuputika kwegomo uye kuderedzwa kwezuva. Zvisinei, maitiro enguva pfupi haawanzoratidzi maitiro enguva refu. Kusiyanisa kwematembiricha kwakaonekwa panguva dzinoverengeka kubva 15 asi maitiro ese anoramba achikwira.
• Kana kubuda kwegasi regreenhouse kukadzikiswa zvakanyanya, kukwira kweavhareji yekushisa kwepasi rose kunogona kuganhurirwa pakati pe0.9°C ne2.3C pamusoro pemazinga asati atanga maindasitiri, uye mwero wegungwa unokwira kusvika 30-50 cm maererano ne1986-2005, kusvika kupera kwezana rino remakore. Zvakadaro, pasina chekuita pane mukana we62% wekuti panosvika 2081-2100 tembiricha inogona kunge yakakwira kupfuura 4C yakakwira kupfuura nguva isati yatanga maindasitiri ukuwo kukwira kwegungwa kungangove pakati pemakumi mana kusvika makumi masere masendimita zvichienzaniswa ne40-80. .

kumashure

IPCC ndiro sangano rinotungamira pasi rose pakuongorora ruzivo rwesainzi, hunyanzvi uye hwemagariro nehupfumi hunoenderana nekunzwisisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Mishumo yayo yekuongorora inomiririra kubvumirana kwezviuru zvesainzi pasi rese uye yakavakirwa pakuongorora-vezera uye kuburitswa kwesainzi uye zvinyorwa zvehunyanzvi zvinovhara mitsetse yakawanda yekuongorora uye dataset. Pamusoro peChina Chekuongorora Chirevo, IPCC yakagovera Mubairo weNobel we2007 neaimbova Mutevedzeri weMutungamiriri weUS Al Gore.

Zvirongwa zvekutsvagisa zvakapihwa mari pasi peEU's 6th uye 7th Framework Zvirongwa Zvekutsvagisa, uye pasi pezvirongwa zvekutsvagisa zvenhengo dzenhengo, zvakabatsira zvakanyanya kumishumo yeIPCC. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze chinhu chepakati cheHorizon 2020 research Framework Programme, uko 35% yezviwanikwa zvemari ichagoverwa kune zviitiko zvine chekuita nemamiriro ekunze.

Kuwedzera mamwe mashoko

Vhidhiyo chirevo chakaitwa naCommissioner Hedegaard paUN IPCC mushumo wesainzi yemamiriro ekunze.

Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo nezve mapurojekiti anobatsira mukucherechedzwa kwemamiriro ekunze, tinya pano.

Iyo Yekushanda Boka 1 Summary yeVagadziri vePolisi ndeye iripo pano.

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