Kunzwisisa zvinodiwa neEurope pakugadzira zvombo zvehondo

Kurwisana kuripo nhasi pakati peUS Israel neIran kwakaratidzwa nekuputika kwezvombo zvinokandwa kure zvakaburitswa mukati menyika yevavengi. Muchirimo cha2025, India nePakistan dzakarwisa zvombo izvi nekuchinjana zvombo. Uye kwemakore mana ikozvino, Russia neUkraine dzave dzichiedza kuwana mukana uyu kuburikidza nekuputika kwakanyatsogadzirwa (DPS) kwakagadzirirwa kukanganisa zvakanyanya zvivakwa zvesimba uye kugadzirwa kwemauto. Europe yakagadzirira hondo yakadaro here? anobvunza Viktor Szabo?

Yakatarisana nekutyisidzira kuri kuramba kuchikura kweRussia kubvira pakatanga Crimea muna 2014, Europe yanga ichinetseka nezvekuti yozvidzivirira sei kubva kuDPS, ichitanga chirongwa chekudzivirira hupfumi hwenyika. Chirongwa cheEuropean Sky Shield (ESSI) nezvimwe kufambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma IAMD (zvirongwa zvekudzivirira zvombo zvemuchadenga nezvombo zvenyukireya). Europe yakatanga kutarisa pakuvaka hunyanzvi hwekurwisa mushure mekunge Russia yarwisa Ukraine muna 2022, ichiratidza izvi muzvinhu zvinomwe zvakakosha zveEU muna Kurume 2025. White Pepa reEuropean Defense - Readiness 2030.

Kunyorera Bruegel, Alexandr Burilkov naGuntram B. Wolff vakati Europe inofanira kudzidza nekukurumidza kubva pane zvakaitika kuUkraine kuti madrone anoshanda zvakanyanya seFPV pamberi pane zvombo zvinobaya zvakanyanya, kuti dziviriro yemhepo inodhura zvakanyanya uye yakaoma kuvimbisa uye kuti kugadzirwa kwezvombo zveUS hakugone kuvimbwa nazvo. Marone emazuva ano chete ndiwo anogona kudzivirira kurwisa kweRussia nekuti, "...marone ane mukana wakakura wekubudirira kuparadza zvinangwa zvakakosha kumauto eRussia, kusanganisira nzvimbo dzekuraira, mabhiriji nenzvimbo dzepasi pevhu dzemafuta, gasi nezvombo."

Nyanzvi yezvombo zvinokandwa Fabian Hoffmann vakapa ongororo imwecheteyo yekuti Europe inofanira "kutora nzira yekurwisa yakavakirwa pakuranga" uye kuti "Europe inofanira kuwedzera masheya aripo nemazana, kana asiri zviuru, ezvombo zvinouraya kwenguva refu uye zvakadzika, ukuwo ichiisa mari muzvimbo zvekuchengetera zvinhu zvinodiwa uye zvekufambisa zvinhu."

Mubvunzo unomuka ndewokuti, ndedzipi zvombo zvinosvika kure izvo Europe inofanira kunge ichitevera? Uye, zvinogona here ivo kuzvigadzira?

Sarudzo dzezvombo zvinokandwa zviri kure uye zvakarurama

DPS inotsvaga zvombo zvakakosha: zvinofamba-famba uye zvakagadziriswa, zvakaomeswa (zvakavigwa/zvakavigwa) kana kuti kwete, uye zvizhinji zvacho zvakachengetedzwa neIAMD yemazuva ano. Zviitiko zvechangobva kuitika zvakapa pfungwa huru kuzvombo zvehondo zvakapfurwa muGungwa Dzvuku neHouthis, muUkraine nemuMiddle East zvakapfurwa neIran vachirwisa Israeri. Kubva musi wa13 Kurume^thIran yakatanga zvishoma zvombo zvehondo zvinosvika 789 kubvira pakutanga kwehondo iripo.

Kazhinji, zvombo zvinokandwa zvinogadzirwa zvakawanda zvine tekinoroji iri nyore kuwana uye mitengo yakaderera hazviwanzoshanda zvakanaka pakurwisa sisitimu yeIAMD yakagadzirwa zvakanaka uye ine michina yakakwana. Pasinei nekumhanya kwakanyanya uye daro (kusvika kumakiromita zviuru zvakati wandei), zvombo izvi zvinowanzova nematambudziko ekufanotaura nzira yekufamba uye kushaya kururama kwakanangana. Kubudirira kwekurwisa zvombo zvinokandwa kunobatanidzwa neIAMD isina simba (semunzvimbo yeDonbas kurwisa Mabhomba eIskander-M) kana kuti kune shanduro dzakaoma zvikuru dzakadai se MaRV zvombo netekinoroji yezvombo zvehondo yakafanana nezvombo zvenyukireya iyo inodhura zvakanyanya (maererano nekuva muridzi uye kushanda zvakanaka), zvichiita kuti zvisawirirane nekugadzirwa kwakawanda uye kushandiswa. Saka, zvombo zvehondo, kunyange zvichikosha pakudzivirira zvombo zvenyukireya, zvingasava sarudzo yakanakisisa yenguva pfupi muEurope.

Tekinoroji yeHypersonic, zvichireva zvombo (zvombo zvinopfura nepfuti zvine simba/zvombo zvekufamba nechikepe, mota dzinofamba netsoka dzine simba) dzinofamba pa Mach 5 (kashanu kupfuura kumhanya kweruzha) kana kupfuura, yakagamuchira ruzha rwakawanda munguva pfupi yapfuura nzeveKunyange zvazvo zvichivimbisa kwenguva refu, vazhinji vanoti kutaurwa kwazvo kuri kuwedzeredza sezvo vasina kunyatsojeka kana kuti vasina dziviriro kuIAMD sezvataurwa uye nyanzvi dzinoshatirwa zvikuru kupokana kana zvombo zviri kushandiswa kare zviri zve hypersonic chaizvo. Zvakare zvakanyanya dhura izvo zvinoita kuti pari zvino vave sarudzo isingashande kuEurope. mushumo kubva kuna Ifri vakati, mutengo "...waizoisa pachinzvimbo chechombo chine hungwaru nekushandiswa kwakaganhurirwa."

Saka, maitiro aripo pari zvino ndeekuwana musanganiswa wezvombo zvemugungwa zvine hunhu hwakaenzana: kuvanda, kufamba-famba, kugona kufamba-famba, kumhanya uye nzvimbo dzekukanda zvinosanganisira gungwa (pamusoro kana pasi pemvura), mhepo nenyika. Kukwezva kwavo kuri mukukwanisa kwavo kutakura mutoro wemauto unoenderana nekugona kwechinangwa uku vachikunda dziviriro yehunyanzvi. Michael Bohnert, mainjiniya weRAND, akataura kuti: "Mabhomba ekufambisa nendege dzehondo dziri pakakwirira uye madrone ekurwisa zvino ane nhoroondo yemakore makumi matatu nemashanu yezvombo zvemhepo zvakaparadzwa, kuraira nekudzora kwakaputsika, nzvimbo dzekuchengetera zvombo dzakaparadzwa uye zvivakwa zvakaparadzwa zvakaita semagetsi nenzvimbo dzekuchenesa mafuta. Kubatanidzwa kwehupenyu hwepamusoro, kubudirira, uye kushanda zvakanaka kwemari kuchaita kuti mabhomba ekufambisa nendege dzehondo arambe ari sarudzo yekutanga yekurwisa yeUS nedzimwe nyika huru dzehondo."

Mutambo weChina weparedhi musi wa3 Gunyana 2025, uyo wakaratidza cruise missile muchikamu chetsika, chiratidzo chakajeka cheizvi. Kuva nemidziyo yakakwana yezvimbombo izvi hazvidzivisi kushandiswa kwemadrone kuzadza dziviriro yevavengi, kana dzimwe nguva mhinduro dzakaoma uye dzinodhura, asi huwandu hwemabasa ekuvandudza hunofanira kufungwa nezvezvinhu izvi.

Kuwedzera kugadzirwa kweEurope

Kana Europe ikasarudza kuwedzera kugona kwayo kurwisa ngarava dzakadzika kure nekushandisa zvombo zvekufambisa, zviri nani kukurumidza nekuti Russia iri inowedzera zvombo zvayo zvakatarisa kuNATO. Imwe sarudzo yeEurope yendege refu, MdCN yakaburitswa mugungwa yakashandiswa kurwisa Siriya muna 2018, yave nezvakawanda limited kugadzirwa nekuti gore ra2022 risati rasvika, kushandisa zvombo zvakadaro kwaive "kwakanaka" kana kuti kwezvematongerwo enyika kutumira meseji yakaita sekuti "kuyambuka mutsetse mutsvuku." Mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika emazuva ano achinja izvi uye kugadzirwa kwezvombo zvakadaro kwava kudiwa. Ifri vakati: “Zvingangoita kuti hurongwa hwekupa zvombo hwakawanikwa hwakawanda husazoonekwa sechombo chine chinangwa uye huchapa mauto sarudzo dzakasiyana-siyana dzekupindura kutyisidzira kuri kuwedzera.”

Kune mhinduro dzeDPS, dzimwe nyika dzichiri kutendeukira kuUS. ​​Netherlands yakatenga zvombo zveTomahawk zvekushandisa pakurwisa kwayo. mafrigate uye Jerimani ari kufunga nezvazvo, asi izvi zvinoramba zvichivimba Inotongwa neAmerica tekinoroji isina simba rekuzvitonga kwezvombo zvehondo uye rusununguko rwekushanda kwevashandisi vekuEurope. Uye zvakare, nguva yekutumirwa kweTomahawk inofungidzirwa kuva 2-3 makore munguva yerunyararo, mirairo yekunze kwenyika ikozvino ichave yakanyanya kukosha kunonoka se "...zvinotora makore kuti zvitsiviwe"Mauto eTomahawks anopfuura 168 aWashington achangobva kushandisa kurwisa Iran - uye mirairo yeUS ndiyo inonyanya kukosha."

Zvese izvi zvinoratidza kuti Europe inoda kugadzira nekugadzira zvombo zvayo zvinokandwa kure. Zvichienderana nemari yekuvaka uye mukana wehupfumi hwenyika dzakawanda kana dzichiisa maodha, dzimwe hurumende dziri kutoshanda pamwe chete pabasa iri kuburikidza nezvirongwa zvakabatana.

Izvi zvinosanganisira nzira yeEuropean Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) chirongwa ichi, chakaziviswa muna 2024, chichibatanidza France, Germany, Italy, Poland, UK neSweden mukutsvaga kugona kwendege refu kwakagadzirwa muEurope kwemakiromita anopfuura chiuru chimwe. Tarisiro yekutanga yaive yehunyanzvi hwendege dzinoburitswa pasi dzichipiwa muongorori. Timothy Wright's "Hapana nhengo yeEuropean NATO kunze kweTurkey ine chombo chekare chinokandirwa pasi chine daro rinodarika makiromita mazana matatu" uye kuti Poland neFrance zvakasinwa tsamba yechinangwa muna Chikunguru 2025 yekushandira pamwe chete pakushandisa zvombo zvepasi. Wright akataura kuti paive nedhizaini yakaita seLand Cruise Missile (LCM) yeMBDA, shanduko yeMdCN yayo yakaburitswa pasi uye kuratidzwa kwaitarisirwa kuitwa. kubudikidza 2028, zvingangoitika kuti ndizvo zvaive zvakadaro. Asi nepo vatori vechikamu veELSA ichangopfuura Yakasaina tsamba yekuda kuenderera mberi nechirongwa ichi, inongotaura nezvekufambira mberi munharaunda yezvombo zvemhando ye saturation zvine mutengo wakaderera, zvinoshandisa nzira imwe chete, kwete muchikamu chezvombo zveDPS zvinorema, zvinodiwa neEurope.

Kugona kweEurope kushandisa zvombo zvehondo pari zvino hakuna simba kune Russia uye kuzadzisa mukaha uyu kungave ndiyo nzira chete yekudzivirira hutsinye hweRussia sezvo Putin aisazoda kuisa njodzi yekurwisa zvivakwa nezvinangwa zvakakosha. Kuti izvi zviitike, Bruegel vakati: "Matombo ezvombo zvinokwanisa kusvika mukati meRussia anofanira kuwedzerwa, zvichiratidza mutengo unorema weRussia kana paine kurwiswa kwenzvimbo yeEU. Hurumende dzeEurope dzinofanira kuodha zvakawanda kubva, uye kuva vatengi vakavimbika vevagadziri vezvombo zvekuEurope kwenguva refu."

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