Azerbaijan nemubatanidzwa uri kubuda zviri kuchinja Middle East

Azerbaijan inyika yakasiyana nedzimwe. Kunyangwe iri yeMuslim neShi'ite, inyika isina chitendero yakatsunga kuita kuti ive yemazuva ano. Mumaonero ayo, inotungamirwa naMutungamiriri wenyika Ilham Aliyev, uyo ane hukama hwakanaka neUnited States neIsrael, ukuwo hukama neIran huchiri kukonzerwa nekusavimbana. Nhepfenyuro dzepasi rose dzichangobva kuzivisa zvaifungidzirwa nevakawanda kuti: Pamuganhu weAzerbaijan wemakiromita mazana manomwe neIran, nzvimbo dzeMossad dzepachivande dzinonzi dzinoshanda sechikamu che network huru yehungwaru yenzvimbo iyo Israel inogona kutarisa uye inogona kutanga mabasa ekurwisa Islamic Republic.

Nzvimbo dzakadai dzinogona kunge dzakaita basa muzviito zvechangobva kuitwa nevanhu vakuru vekuIran, kusanganisira Rahman Moqadam, mukuru wekutsvaga vanhu vekune dzimwe nyika kuIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Hukama pakati peAzerbaijan neIsrael hwabudirira kubva pakawa Soviet Union muna 1991. Israel yaive pakati penyika dzekutanga kugamuchira nyika itsva iyi yakazvimirira, uye nyika mbiri idzi dzakavaka hukama hwakasimba. Azerbaijan inopa mafuta nesimba; Israel inopa tekinoroji, hungwaru, masisitimu ezvombo uye hunyanzvi. Gurukota rezvekunze reIsrael Gideon Sa'ar akasangana naAliyev muBaku muna Ndira. Munguva yehondo dzeNagorno-Karabakh, kugona kwemauto kweAzerbaijan kwakavakirwa patekinoroji yeIsrael. Nyika iyi yaivewo pakati pevakatanga kutenga sisitimu yekudzivirira zvombo zveIsrael yeIron Dome.

Kunyange hazvo hukama hweAzerbaijan neWashington hwakadzikira panguva yehutongi hwaBiden nekuda kwekuwedzera kwehukama hweUS neArmenia, kudzoka kwaMutungamiri Donald Trump kwakabatsira kumutsiridza hurongwa hwaigona kuchinja mepu yezvematongerwo enyika yedunhu iri—chero bedzi kutyisidzira kweIran kukasagadziriswa uye simba reRussia rikadziviswa. Kubatana kuri kubuda kuri kuenderera mberi kupfuura Azerbaijan. United Arab Emirates yave iri musimboti weizvi kubvira pakasainwa Abraham Accords muna 2020. Bahrain ine zvinonetsa pamusoro pehukasha hweIran. Morocco yave mubatsiri weWestern akavimbika mukurwisa hukasha hwejihadist. Egypt neJordan, pasinei nekusawirirana nguva nenguva, zvichiri kuramba zvakazvipira kurugare. Saudi Arabia inoramba ichitevera zvido zvayo, asi pakupedzisira inogona kuwana kuti ramangwana rayo riri mukati memubatanidzwa wakakura weWestern.

Kutenda kwaTrump kuti nyika zhinji dzechiMuslim dzakagadzirira kushanda neIsrael kurwisa Iran nevamiriri vayo vane chisimba hakusi kufungidzira. Izvi zvinoratidza chokwadi chave chichikura kwemakore. Kwemakore, hurongwa hukuru hweIran hwaive hwekukomberedza Israel neboka revanhu vane zvombo. Hezbollah muRebhanoni, Hamas muGaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, mauto echiShi'ite muIraq, maHouthi muYemen nehurumende yaAssad muSyria zvaive nechinangwa chekuumba rusvingo rwakasimba kutenderedza nyika yechiJudha. Tehran yaitarisirawo kukwezva nyika yeArabhu muboka rakabatana rekurwisa Israel, ichiparadzanisa Israeri nehunyanzvi uku ichiityisidzira nemauto kubva kumativi ese. Pane kudaro, zvakapesana zvakaitika. Hamas yaparadzwa, Hezbollah yave isina simba zvakanyanya, Assad yawa, uye nyika zhinji dzechiArabhu ikozvino dzinoona Iran—kwete Israeri—senzvimbo huru yekusagadzikana kwedunhu. Chibvumirano chaAbraham chakavhura chokwadi chitsva chehurongwa, uye kushandira pamwe pakati peIsrael nenyika huru dzeSunni kwakawedzera pasinei nehondo. Pane kuti Israeri izviwane yakakomberedzwa, Iran ndiyo iri kutarisana nekudziviswa kwehurongwa.

Nhasi uno, Tehran iri kuona nyika dziri kukura—kubva kuAzerbaijan kuchamhembe kusvika kuGulf states nevadyidzani vayo mudunhu reRed Sea—dzine chido chekudzikamisa kuwedzera kweIran. Hope dzeIran dzekutonga kwedunhu dzasangana nechokwadi chitsva chezvematongerwo enyika. Chiri kuchine njodzi huru iHezbollah. Sangano iri harisi kungoshanda senjodzi yemauto kuIsrael; rakabata Lebanon pachayo, richibata nyika yacho senhapwa yezvido zveIran. Nhumbi dzeHezbollah, simba rezvematongerwo enyika uye kutonga kwemasangano akakosha zvinodzivirira Lebanon kuti isadzore hutongi hwakazara uye kutevera ramangwana rinodiwa nevaRebhanoni vazhinji. Chero bedzi Hezbollah ichiri chombo cheTehran chakashongedzerwa nezvombo paMediterranean, Lebanon icharamba ichibhadhara mutengo wezvinangwa zveIran zvedunhu.

Chikamu chehurongwa uhwu huri kuchinja chinosanganisira hukama huri kukura pakati peIsrael neSomaliland pamusuwo wekumaodzanyemba weGungwa Dzvuku, imwe yenzira dzekutengeserana dzegungwa dzakakosha pasi rose. Yakatarisana nenjodzi inounzwa neHouthis inotsigirwa neIran, Somaliland yave shamwari inokosha muHorn of Africa. Kune Israel, hukama hwakakosha ikozvino hunopfuura kubatana kwayo neUnited States. Pamwe chinonyanya kukosha ndechekubatana kwayo kuri kukura neIndia pasi peMutungamiriri weNyika Narendra Modi.

Pamwe chete, vari kusimudzira India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, kana kuti IMEC, yakaziviswa muna 2023, iyo inoisa Israel pakati penzira huru yekutengeserana inobatanidza Asia neEurope uye inopa imwe nzira yenguva refu kune China's Belt and Road Initiative. Iri ndiro ramangwana riri kutora chimiro muMiddle East—kwete kuparadzaniswa kweIsrael kuburikidza nekurambana nemakambani ezvematongerwo enyika, asi network iri kuwedzera yehukama hwakavakirwa pazvido zvakafanana, budiriro yehupfumi uye kuramba kutonga kweIran. Izvozvo, pakupedzisira, ndizvo zvichaita rugare rusingaperi.

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